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Closed-form approximations of moments and densities of continuous–time Markov models 连续时间马尔可夫模型的矩和密度的闭式近似值
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104948
{"title":"Closed-form approximations of moments and densities of continuous–time Markov models","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104948","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104948","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper develops power series expansions of a general class of moment functions, including transition densities and option prices, of continuous-time Markov processes, including jump–diffusions. The proposed expansions extend the ones in <span><span>Kristensen and Mele (2011)</span></span> to cover general Markov processes, and nest transition density and option price expansions recently developed in the literature, thereby connecting seemingly different ideas in a unified framework. We show how the general expansion can be implemented for fully general jump–diffusion models. We provide a new theory for the validity of the expansions which shows that series expansions are not guaranteed to converge as more terms are added in general once the time span of interest gets larger than some model–specific threshold. Thus, these methods should be used with caution when applied to problems with a larger time span of interest, such as long-term options or data observed at a low frequency. At the same time, the numerical studies in this paper demonstrate good performance of the proposed implementation in practice when applied to pricing options with time to maturity below three months. Thus, our expansions are particularly well suited for pricing ultra-short-term (such as “zero–day”) options.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188924001404/pdfft?md5=91b1920c72908d3fae9b959bab76dbae&pid=1-s2.0-S0165188924001404-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142274045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Capital misallocation and economic development in a dynamic open economy 动态开放经济中的资本错配与经济发展
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104969
{"title":"Capital misallocation and economic development in a dynamic open economy","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104969","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104969","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Some countries, such as Canada, Italy, and Mexico, have experienced a higher growth rate of capital per worker but a lower growth rate for GDP per worker compared to the United States. This paper explains these two facts through the lens of a dynamic multisector open economy model where capital flows across countries. In the model, firms face sector-specific distortions on capital and intermediate inputs that influence the actual rate of return on capital and the aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). We calibrate the model to Mexico for the period 2000-2014 and show that changes in sectoral distortions and productivities reduced the actual rate of return on capital, triggering capital accumulation and a reduction in TFP. The results show that aggregate output decreased by 7.3% and aggregate capital increased by 10.6%. From 33 sectors (out of 48) that suffered productivity losses, approximately 50% accumulated more capital. Furthermore, the capital-intensive sectors explain 82% of the capital-output ratio increase.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142320260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Commodity prices and production networks in small open economies 小型开放经济体的商品价格和生产网络
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104968
{"title":"Commodity prices and production networks in small open economies","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104968","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104968","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study the role of domestic production networks in the transmission of commodity price fluctuations in small open economies. First, we present a tractable model of a small open economy's production network to explain sectoral propagation patterns. We demonstrate that the domestic production network is crucial in shaping the propagation of commodity prices. Using a panel of 31 sectors across 9 small open economies, we empirically confirm the model's predictions. Next, we construct a dynamic model of a small open economy featuring a production network to study the macroeconomic importance of the network structure in shaping both aggregate and sectoral responses to commodity price shocks. We show that: (i) the network-adjusted labor share of the commodity sector, rather than the sector's size, is key to understanding the real wage's response to commodity price fluctuations; and (ii) non-unitary elasticities of substitution in production are crucial for understanding the cross-sectional implications of these fluctuations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142239187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How do households respond to income shocks? 家庭如何应对收入冲击？
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104961
{"title":"How do households respond to income shocks?","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104961","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104961","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use panel data from the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth from 1991 to 2016 to document what components of the household budget constraint change in response to shocks to household labor income, both over shorter and over longer horizons. Consumption and wealth responses are informative about the household consumption (or savings) function and thus about what class of consumption-savings model best describes the data. Empirically, we first show that shocks to labor income are associated with negligible changes in transfers and non-labor income components, modest changes in consumption expenditures, and large changes in wealth. To understand the wealth response we then split households into a sample that does not own business or real estate wealth, and a sample that does. For the first group, we find that consumption responses are more substantial (and increasing with the horizon of the income shock) and wealth responses are much smaller (and mildly increasing with the income shock horizon). Turning to theory, we argue that for this group, a simple extension of the standard permanent income hypothesis (PIH) consumption function that allows for partial insurance against even permanent income shocks explains the consumption and wealth responses well, both at short and long horizons. For the second group with business wealth or real estate wealth the standard framework cannot explain the large changes in wealth associated with income shocks. We conclude that models which include shocks to the value of household wealth are necessary to fully evaluate the sources and consequences of household resource risk.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142148786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unconventional policies in state-dependent liquidity traps 依赖国家的流动性陷阱中的非常规政策
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104956
{"title":"Unconventional policies in state-dependent liquidity traps","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104956","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104956","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We characterize optimal unconventional monetary and fiscal-financial policies against supply- and demand-driven liquidity traps within a tractable New Keynesian model featuring a cash-in-advance constraint and a monetary policy cost channel. Deposit <em>subsidies</em> circumvent the inflation-output trade-off arising from stagflationary shocks and supply-driven liquidity traps by enabling <em>negative</em> nominal interest rates. Additionally, deposit <em>taxes</em> facilitate modest interest rate <em>hikes</em> to escape demand-driven deflationary traps. Notably, discretionary and commitment policies with deposit taxes / subsidies deliver virtually equivalent welfare gains, rendering time-inconsistent forward guidance schedules unnecessary. We also derive robust and implementable optimal policy rules when the sources of shocks are unknown.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188924001489/pdfft?md5=29412fe91f2b3a044d2fa7f49239e96a&pid=1-s2.0-S0165188924001489-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142172973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How to construct monthly VAR proxies based on daily surprises in futures markets 如何根据期货市场的每日意外事件构建月度 VAR 代用指标
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104966
{"title":"How to construct monthly VAR proxies based on daily surprises in futures markets","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104966","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104966","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>It is common in applied work to estimate responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news shocks derived from surprise changes in daily futures prices around the date of policy announcements. This requires mapping the daily surprises into a monthly shock that may be used as an external instrument in a monthly VAR model or local projection. The standard approach has been to sum these daily surprises over the course of a given month when constructing the monthly proxy variable, ignoring the accounting relationship between daily and average monthly price data. In this paper, I discuss an alternative approach to constructing monthly proxies from daily surprises that takes account of this link and revisit the question of how to use OPEC announcements to identify news shocks in VAR models of the global oil market. The proposed approach calls into question the interpretation of the identified shock as oil supply news and implies quantitatively and qualitatively different estimates of the macroeconomic impact of OPEC announcements.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142239186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Deferred annuities with gender-neutral pricing: Benefitting most women without adversely affecting too many men 不分性别定价的递延年金：使大多数女性受益，同时不会对太多男性产生不利影响
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104947
{"title":"Deferred annuities with gender-neutral pricing: Benefitting most women without adversely affecting too many men","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104947","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104947","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Many countries emphasize gender equality and ban gender-based annuity pricing, leading to more heterogeneous health characteristics and market inefficiency. Governments may respond by offering deferred annuities when annuitants' health characteristics are more similar at an earlier age. The two combined policies benefit most female annuitants without adversely affecting too many male annuitants, contrasting to the well-known result that imposing gender-neutral pricing benefits all women but adversely affects all men, when only immediate annuities are available. Within each gender group, these two policy interventions benefit annuitants with average health, but may adversely affect those on either end.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142129684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Firm financing and the relative demand for labor and capital 企业融资以及对劳动力和资本的相对需求
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104946
{"title":"Firm financing and the relative demand for labor and capital","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104946","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104946","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using more than one million firm-year observations of small and medium European firms between 2003 and 2019, this paper introduces new stylized facts on how firms' relative demand for labor and capital evolved as their capital structure adjusted to the events of the 2008 crisis. It also provides micro-level evidence that firms substitute capital for labor when financing costs rise. The empirical evidence lends support to the hypothesis that substitution is driven by an incentive to raise holdings of collateralizable capital. Identification of exogenous variations in firm financing costs relies on the heterogeneous effects of ECB monetary policy surprises on financing costs across the firm distribution.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142162845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Applications of Markov chain approximation methods to optimal control problems in economics” [Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 143:104437, October 2022] 马尔可夫链近似方法在经济学最优控制问题中的应用》更正[《经济学动态与控制学报》，143:104437，2022年10月]
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104933
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Applications of Markov chain approximation methods to optimal control problems in economics” [Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 143:104437, October 2022]","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104933","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104933","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188924001258/pdfft?md5=d34d09a5ee8a5107acdc5cdd15296099&pid=1-s2.0-S0165188924001258-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142083227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimism leads to optimality: Ambiguity in network formation 乐观导致最优：网络形成中的模糊性
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104944
{"title":"Optimism leads to optimality: Ambiguity in network formation","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104944","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104944","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We analyze a model of endogenous two-sided network formation where players are affected by uncertainty about their opponents' decisions. We model this uncertainty using the notion of equilibrium under ambiguity as in <span><span>Eichberger and Kelsey (2014)</span></span>. Unlike the set of Nash equilibria, the set of equilibria under ambiguity does not always include underconnected and thus inefficient networks such as the empty network. On the other hand, it may include networks with unreciprocated, one-way links, which comes with an efficiency loss as linking efforts are costly. We characterize equilibria under ambiguity and provide conditions under which increased player optimism comes with an increase in connectivity and realized benefits in equilibrium. Next, we analyze network realignment under a myopic updating process with optimistic shocks and derive a global stability condition of efficient networks in the sense of <span><span>Kandori et al. (1993)</span></span>. Under this condition, a subset of the Pareto optimal equilibrium networks is reached, specifically, networks that maximize the players' total benefits of connections.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142083258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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