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Hidden information as a source of misallocation: An application to the opioid crisis
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105081
Bayarmaa Dalkhjav , Loris Rubini
{"title":"Hidden information as a source of misallocation: An application to the opioid crisis","authors":"Bayarmaa Dalkhjav ,&nbsp;Loris Rubini","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a general equilibrium model where key employee information is hidden from managers, leading to a suboptimal allocation of resources. The health of the employees is not verifiable by managers, and an employee with poor health is less productive than a healthy one. We use this framework to study the loss of resources due to misallocation associated with the opioid crisis. Individuals with opioid use disorder are less productive and absent more often, which by itself generates output losses. In addition, since managers cannot distinguish unhealthy from healthy workers, wages differ from marginal productivity, creating a suboptimal allocation of resources. Calibrating the model to the U.S., we estimate that opioid misuse reduced output by $218.07 billion in 2023, with 12.4% of this loss attributable to misallocation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 105081"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143636340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The role of international reserves in sovereign debt restructuring under fiscal adjustment
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105080
Tiago Tavares
{"title":"The role of international reserves in sovereign debt restructuring under fiscal adjustment","authors":"Tiago Tavares","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Highly indebted developing economies commonly also hold large external reserves. This behavior seems puzzling given that governments borrow with an interest rate penalty to compensate lenders for default risk. Although reducing external debt to the same extent as international reserves would reduce the interest payment burden, reserves can have additional insurance benefits during default crises. Moreover, reserves can also be used to improve lenders recovery rates upon default, thus decreasing the interest rate penalty in non-defaulting times. A standard model of sovereign default risk, augmented with distortionary tax policies and debt restructuring, can replicate quantitatively the observed data patterns on external debt and reserves holdings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 105080"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143592416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What drives German trend output growth? A sectoral view
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105079
Robert Lehmann , Lara Zarges
{"title":"What drives German trend output growth? A sectoral view","authors":"Robert Lehmann ,&nbsp;Lara Zarges","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105079","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105079","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we outline material and capital linkages across sectors to quantify the role of the German production network in amplifying sectoral dynamics on aggregate trend gross domestic product growth. This allows us to study the impact of sectoral labor input and total factor productivity trend growth variation on the persistent decline in long-run output growth. Our estimation reveals that sector-specific developments have historically accounted for half of this long-term decline. Zooming into the reunification period, we find a pronounced decline of total factor productivity growth in Professional and Business Services together with a fall in labor input growth in the Construction sector to drive the sharp decline of German trend output growth over the 1990s. We further document significant changes regarding the sectors' importance as input suppliers to the economy over the past decades. Our analysis identifies the labor-intensive Construction sector as a major input hub in the production network, its long-run amplification effect exceeding four times its share in value added. Given the impending demographic change, the low potential for automation in this sector may significantly reduce future German trend output growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 105079"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143578669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Robots, AI, and unemployment
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105069
Noritaka Kudoh , Hiroaki Miyamoto
{"title":"Robots, AI, and unemployment","authors":"Noritaka Kudoh ,&nbsp;Hiroaki Miyamoto","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105069","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105069","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do robots and artificial intelligence (AI) cause joblessness? We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with search-matching frictions. In our model, robots substitute routine human tasks, and AI substitutes abstract human tasks. We find a cutoff level for the elasticity of substitution between routine labor input and robots, above which an increase in robot productivity leads to increased unemployment. We examine a scenario in which AI-driven automation of abstract tasks transforms high-skilled workers into unskilled ones. A substantial productivity gain through AI is required to offset the output loss associated with this labor displacement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 105069"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143549366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Microdata-based output gap estimation using business tendency surveys
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105068
Mirosław Błażej , Mariusz Górajski , Magdalena Ulrichs
{"title":"Microdata-based output gap estimation using business tendency surveys","authors":"Mirosław Błażej ,&nbsp;Mariusz Górajski ,&nbsp;Magdalena Ulrichs","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105068","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105068","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study employs a micro-econometric model to estimate output gaps by analysing microdata from business tendency surveys and annual enterprise activity reports. We apply the control function method to estimate sector-specific production functions that incorporate information about firms' capacity utilisation levels. To construct aggregate indices of potential output, we calculate potential input values by extracting statistical trends from firm-level data and then input them into production functions. We then compute microdata-based output gaps for regions, sectors, and the total economy. Subsequently, we decompose the total output gap into three primary components: capital-, labour-, and capacity utilisation-based output gaps, as well as weighted sectoral and regional output gaps. We validate our methodology by analysing the Polish manufacturing, construction, and service sectors, highlighting its strengths and limitations. Our findings reveal that capacity utilisation effectively captures the business cycle component within unadjusted total factor productivity indices. Finally, we demonstrate that microdata-based output gap measures are significant explanatory variables in the Phillips curve.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 105068"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Time-varying government spending foresight
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105067
Junjie Guo , Zhao Han
{"title":"Time-varying government spending foresight","authors":"Junjie Guo ,&nbsp;Zhao Han","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105067","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105067","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Government spending forecast is noisy and displays time-varying uncertainties. Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we establish three stylized facts about disagreement regarding future discretionary government spending. A simple noise representation of foresight <em>á la</em> <span><span>Chahrour and Jurado (2018)</span></span> featuring stochastic volatility captures these stylized facts. We analyze both qualitatively and quantitatively how the noisy foresight structure impacts the macroeconomy under different monetary-fiscal policy regimes. Time-varying fiscal foresight manifests its effect through non-zero noise shocks by generating state-dependent government spending multipliers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 105067"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143453204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trend-cycle decomposition in the presence of large shocks
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105066
Güneş Kamber , James Morley , Benjamin Wong
{"title":"Trend-cycle decomposition in the presence of large shocks","authors":"Güneş Kamber ,&nbsp;James Morley ,&nbsp;Benjamin Wong","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105066","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105066","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We introduce some refinements of the Beveridge-Nelson filter to help address possible distortions from large shocks. We then compare how the Beveridge-Nelson filter and other popular univariate trend-cycle decomposition methods perform given the extreme outliers associated with the Covid recession. Real-time estimates of the output gap based on the Hodrick-Prescott filter are highly unreliable in the years just prior to the pandemic, although the revised estimates during the pandemic are similar to those of the more reliable Beveridge-Nelson filter. The Hamilton filter suffers from base effects that produce a mechanical spike in the estimated output gap exactly two years after the onset of the pandemic, in line with the filter horizon. Given projected data with a simulated Covid-like shock, both the Hodrick-Prescott and Hamilton filters overstate the true reduction in the output gap and fail to capture the implied movements in trend output. The Hodrick-Prescott filter generates a spurious transitory boom just prior to the simulated shock, while the Hamilton filter produces another mechanical spike exactly two years after the simulated shock, as well as an ongoing divergence in forecasted values of the output gap away from zero. Only the Beveridge-Nelson filter correctly forecasts trend and cycle movements when faced with a Covid-like shock.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 105066"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Conditional forecasts in large Bayesian VARs with multiple equality and inequality constraints
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105061
Joshua C.C. Chan , Davide Pettenuzzo , Aubrey Poon , Dan Zhu
{"title":"Conditional forecasts in large Bayesian VARs with multiple equality and inequality constraints","authors":"Joshua C.C. Chan ,&nbsp;Davide Pettenuzzo ,&nbsp;Aubrey Poon ,&nbsp;Dan Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105061","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on the future paths of some other variables, are used routinely by empirical macroeconomists in a number of applied settings. In spite of this, the existing algorithms used to generate conditional forecasts tend to be very computationally intensive, especially when working with large Vector Autoregressions or when multiple linear equality and inequality constraints are imposed at once. We introduce a novel precision-based sampler that is fast, scales well, and yields conditional forecasts from linear equality and inequality constraints. We show in a simulation study that the proposed method produces forecasts that are identical to those from the existing algorithms but in a fraction of the time. We then illustrate the performance of our method in a large Bayesian Vector Autoregression. Within this setting, we first highlight how we can simultaneously impose a mix of linear equality and inequality constraints on the future trajectories of several key US macroeconomic indicators over a forecast horizon spanning multiple years. Next, we test the benefits of using inequality constraints in an out-of-sample exercise spanning the period between 1995Q1 and 2022Q3 and find that imposing these constraints on the future path of Real GDP leads to significant improvement in point and density forecasts of the large BVAR model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 105061"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143350011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modelling dynamic interdependence in nonstationary variances with an application to carbon markets
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105062
Susana Campos-Martins , Cristina Amado
{"title":"Modelling dynamic interdependence in nonstationary variances with an application to carbon markets","authors":"Susana Campos-Martins ,&nbsp;Cristina Amado","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105062","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105062","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper we propose a multivariate generalisation of the multiplicative decomposition of the volatility within the class of conditional correlation GARCH models. The GARCH variance equations are multiplicatively decomposed into a deterministic nonstationary component describing the long-run movements in volatility and a short-run dynamic component allowing for volatility interactions across markets or assets. The conditional correlations are assumed to be time-invariant in its simplest form or generalised into a flexible dynamic parameterisation. Parameters of the model are estimated equation-by-equation by maximum likelihood applying the maximisation by parts algorithm to the variance equations, and thereafter to the structure of conditional correlations. An empirical application using carbon markets data illustrates the usefulness of the model. Our results suggest that, after modelling the variance equations accordingly, we find evidence that the transmission mechanism of shocks is supported by the presence of dynamic interdependence in variances robust to nonstationarity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 105062"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143223223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How large are hysteresis effects? Estimates from a Keynesian growth model
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105058
Steven M. Fazzari , Alejandro González
{"title":"How large are hysteresis effects? Estimates from a Keynesian growth model","authors":"Steven M. Fazzari ,&nbsp;Alejandro González","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105058","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105058","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper estimates a demand-led model of macroeconomic growth and fluctuations in which the growth rate of the economy's supply side converges to the growth rate of demand. Convergence happens because labor supply and productivity growth respond to the degree of slack in the economy. Faster demand growth reduces unemployment and stimulates supply. We estimate the model using simulated method of moments and find that after a unit demand shock, labor productivity and labor supply increase by 0.8 and 0.2, respectively, in the long-run. For an economy with labor market slack, our estimates imply that supply growth could accommodate a one percentage point increase in the growth rate of demand with a 0.74 percentage point reduction in the long-run unemployment rate. These hysteresis results are robust to whether or not the Great Recession is included in our sample.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 105058"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143376822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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