前瞻性出口商

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI:10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105183

François de Soyres , Erik Frohm , Emily Highkin , Carter Mix

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了预期在推动出口调整中的作用。我们利用双边汇率数据、汇率预测和一组国家的hs2产品出口数据表明，对汇率变化的预期是预期出口调整的重要渠道。在我们首选的规范中，预期的汇率贬值会导致新出口商大量进入（广泛的边际调整），对总出口量或密集边际没有显著影响。我们建立了一个具有异质企业的简单模型，为这些发现提供直觉，并讨论预期行为如何影响贸易弹性测量。

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Forward looking exporters

We study the role of expectations in driving export adjustment. Using bilateral data on exchange rates, exchange rate forecasts, and HS2-product export data for a panel of countries, we show that expectations of exchange rate changes are an important channel for anticipatory export adjustment. In our preferred specification, an expected exchange rate depreciation induces substantial entry of new exporters (extensive margin adjustment), with no significant effect on total export volumes or the intensive margin. We develop a simple model with heterogeneous firms to provide intuition for these findings and discuss how anticipation behavior may affect trade elasticity measurement.

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

10.50%

发文量

199

期刊介绍： The journal provides an outlet for publication of research concerning all theoretical and empirical aspects of economic dynamics and control as well as the development and use of computational methods in economics and finance. Contributions regarding computational methods may include, but are not restricted to, artificial intelligence, databases, decision support systems, genetic algorithms, modelling languages, neural networks, numerical algorithms for optimization, control and equilibria, parallel computing and qualitative reasoning.