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Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control最新文献

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Is monetary and fiscal policy conflict that dire? 货币政策和财政政策的冲突有那么可怕吗？
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104982
Jeremy Kronick , Luba Petersen
{"title":"Is monetary and fiscal policy conflict that dire?","authors":"Jeremy Kronick ,&nbsp;Luba Petersen","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104982","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104982","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Theory predicts that inflation can become unstable when policymakers are in conflict about their post-recession recovery strategies, with the fiscal authority actively borrowing and spending to stimulate economic growth while the monetary authority raises interest rates to tame inflation. Such policy conflict can generate a debt-inflation spiral when agents are forward-looking. We show that the dire effects of policy conflict are less concerning when agents form backward-looking expectations. We then test this prediction in a learning-to-forecast experiment. Our results suggest that policy conflict does not necessarily lead to worse economic outcomes. This finding is driven by the fact that agents rely mostly on recent macroeconomic trends to formulate their expectations and do not meaningfully factor the government debt level or future regime shifts into their expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104982"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143386650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Efficiency gains through social influence in a minimum effort game 在最小努力博弈中通过社会影响获得效率
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104977
Jasmina Arifovic , Herbert Dawid , Mariam Nanumyan
{"title":"Efficiency gains through social influence in a minimum effort game","authors":"Jasmina Arifovic ,&nbsp;Herbert Dawid ,&nbsp;Mariam Nanumyan","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104977","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104977","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We explore the role of social influence in coordinating effort choice in a game with strategic complementarities. Agents are repeatedly randomly partitioned into groups to play a minimum effort game and choose their effort based on their beliefs about the minimal effort among the other group members. Individual expectations about this minimal effort are influenced by their own experience and by communication of beliefs within a social network. We show that increasing the importance of social influence in the expectation formation process has positive effects on the emerging (long-run) effort level, thereby improving the efficiency of the outcome. Furthermore, a more centralized social network leads to higher average efficiency, but also to increased variance of outcomes. Communication of actual minimum effort cannot replace the communication of beliefs as a device fostering the emergence of high long-run effort.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104977"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143386573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sources of artificial intelligence 人工智能的来源
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104989
Thomas J. Sargent
{"title":"Sources of artificial intelligence","authors":"Thomas J. Sargent","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104989","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104989","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper describes limits of human intelligence and how humans invented artificial intelligence and machine learning. It explores the paradoxical situation that the tools that data scientists have used to develop artificial intelligence are about subjects in which we humans have hard-wired cognitive challenges that mislead us.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104989"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143386570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
CANVAS: A Canadian behavioral agent-based model for monetary policy CANVAS：加拿大基于行为主体的货币政策模型
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104986
Cars Hommes , Mario He , Sebastian Poledna , Melissa Siqueira , Yang Zhang
{"title":"CANVAS: A Canadian behavioral agent-based model for monetary policy","authors":"Cars Hommes ,&nbsp;Mario He ,&nbsp;Sebastian Poledna ,&nbsp;Melissa Siqueira ,&nbsp;Yang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104986","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104986","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop the Canadian behavioral Agent-Based Model (CANVAS) that complements traditional macroeconomic models for forecasting and monetary policy analysis. CANVAS represents a next-generation modeling effort featuring enhancements in three dimensions: introducing household and firm heterogeneity, departing from rational expectations, and modeling price and quantity setting heuristics within a production network. The expanded modeling capacity is achieved by harnessing large-scale Canadian micro- and macroeconomic datasets and incorporating adaptive learning and simple heuristics. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of CANVAS is found to be competitive with a benchmark vector auto-regressive (VAR) model and a DSGE model. When applied to analyze the COVID-19 pandemic episode, our model helps explain both the macroeconomic movement and the interplay between expectation formation and cost-push shocks. CANVAS is one of the first macroeconomic agent-based models applied by a central bank to support projection and alternative scenarios, marking an advancement in the toolkit of central banks and enriching monetary policy analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104986"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143386576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Introduction to the special issue on computational and experimental economics in memory of Jasmina Arifovic 纪念贾斯米娜·阿里福维克的计算与实验经济学特刊导论
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104978
Herbert Dawid , Cars Hommes , Luba Petersen
{"title":"Introduction to the special issue on computational and experimental economics in memory of Jasmina Arifovic","authors":"Herbert Dawid ,&nbsp;Cars Hommes ,&nbsp;Luba Petersen","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104978","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104978","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104978"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143386569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Learning integrated inflation forecasts in a simple multi-agent macroeconomic model 在一个简单的多主体宏观经济模型中学习综合通货膨胀预测
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104979
Blake LeBaron , Karen Smith
{"title":"Learning integrated inflation forecasts in a simple multi-agent macroeconomic model","authors":"Blake LeBaron ,&nbsp;Karen Smith","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104979","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104979","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper implements a model with a population of heterogeneous macro forecasters. Their objectives are to forecast output and inflation, both inputs in standard New Keynesian macro models. The model is implemented by first calibrating the agents to professional forecasters at the micro level. Model runs then try to replicate both the dynamics, bias and cross sectional heterogeneity of forecasts and the economy. These are done both in a model with static forecasters, and one where the forecasters are learning from each other in a social fashion. We find that expectations about the inflation process which conjecture near random walk behavior can be self-fulfilling, yielding inflation volatility and persistence on the order of magnitude of U.S. macro data. However, our forecasting populations often fall short of the heterogeneity of predictions from survey data. In some cases, monetary policy can be used to shift the model from its volatile/persistent equilibrium over to a more stable, strongly mean reverting inflation rate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104979"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143386649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modeling noisy learning in a dynamic oligopoly experiment 动态寡头垄断实验中的噪声学习建模
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104981
Felix Mauersberger , Rosemarie Nagel
{"title":"Modeling noisy learning in a dynamic oligopoly experiment","authors":"Felix Mauersberger ,&nbsp;Rosemarie Nagel","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104981","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104981","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Estimating demand before production poses a significant challenge for many industries, including vaccine manufacturing, newspapers, and perishable foods. Both industry professionals and experimental subjects in laboratory settings often struggle to determine optimal production. This paper sheds light on the cognitive processes that explain individuals' inability to act optimally, using data from <span><span>Nagel and Vriend, 1999a</span></span>, <span><span>Nagel and Vriend, 1999b</span></span>. In their experiment, participants, acting as firms, set production levels without prior knowledge of the demand generated by own and competitors' advertising efforts. We first reexamine their two-step learning model, which involves directional learning for production levels and a hill-climbing algorithm for advertising, utilizing exogenous adjustment size distributions. We improve upon this model, inspired by the macroeconomic learning literature, with agents using constant gain learning for production decisions and hill climbing for advertising decisions with endogenous adjustments. We demonstrate that our model provides a better fit to the data than the original model by <span><span>Nagel and Vriend (1999a)</span></span> and yields superior out-of-sample forecasts, both for one-period-ahead predictions and simulated paths.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104981"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143386658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
When and how should an incumbent respond to a potentially disruptive event? 在职者何时以及如何应对潜在的破坏性事件？
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104974
Benoît Chevalier-Roignant
{"title":"When and how should an incumbent respond to a potentially disruptive event?","authors":"Benoît Chevalier-Roignant","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104974","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104974","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Incumbents can respond to the competitive threat posed by a startup either by external or organic growth. Incumbents may fail do so in due course due to a phenomenon known as “incumbent inertia.” I develop a dynamic model of investment that stresses a new rationale for such inertia. The incumbent may wait even though the option to delay one response is “deep in the money.” This is because the incumbent has to make a choice among several possible responses and is strategically ambivalent about which is best. Such inertia would be bad news for startup valuations if the incumbent delays a lucrative exit for venture capitalists, but good news for consumers if it sustains fiercer competition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 104974"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142554114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A competitive theory of mismatch 错位竞争理论
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104996
Javier A. Birchenall
{"title":"A competitive theory of mismatch","authors":"Javier A. Birchenall","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104996","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104996","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I study the distributions of unemployment, vacancies, and wages across local labor markets in an economy where workers and jobs are matched and <em>mis</em>matched based on more explicit assumptions and aggregation principles than in the reduced-form aggregate matching-function approach. The endogenous matching process formulated here is flexible and has practical value for applied work. Local and aggregate labor market adjustments to local productivity and aggregate demand shocks reproduce empirical Beveridge and wage curve patterns, offer an alternative perspective on empirical indices of mismatch unemployment, and deliver an endogenous and commonly used reduced-form aggregate matching function.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 104996"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142699989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Systemic risk in banking, fire sales, and macroeconomic disasters 银行业的系统性风险、火灾销售和宏观经济灾难
IF 1.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104975
Spiros Bougheas , David I. Harvey , Alan Kirman , Douglas Nelson
{"title":"Systemic risk in banking, fire sales, and macroeconomic disasters","authors":"Spiros Bougheas ,&nbsp;David I. Harvey ,&nbsp;Alan Kirman ,&nbsp;Douglas Nelson","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104975","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104975","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a dynamic computational network model of the banking system where fire sales provide the amplification mechanism of financial shocks. Each period a finite number of banks offers a large, but finite, number of loans to households. Banks with excess liquidity also offer loans to other banks with insufficient liquidity. Thus, each period an interbank loan market is endogenously formed. Bank assets are hit by idiosyncratic shocks drawn from a thin tailed distribution. The uneven distribution of shocks across banks implies that each period there are banks that become insolvent. If insolvent banks happen also to be heavily indebted to other banks, their liquidation can trigger other bank failures. We find that the distribution across time of the growth rate of banking assets has a ‘fat left tail’ that corresponds to rare economic disasters. We also find that the distribution of initial shocks is not a perfect predictor of economic activity; that is some of the uncertainty is endogenous and related to the structure of the interbank network.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 104975"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142578572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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