滞后效应有多大？根据凯恩斯增长模型的估计

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI:10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105058

Steven M. Fazzari , Alejandro González

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文估计了一个需求主导的宏观经济增长和波动模型，其中经济的供给侧增长率收敛于需求增长率。趋同之所以发生，是因为劳动力供给和生产率增长对经济的疲软程度做出了反应。更快的需求增长减少了失业，刺激了供给。我们使用模拟矩量的方法对模型进行估计，发现单位需求冲击后，劳动生产率和劳动供给在长期内分别增加了0.8和0.2。对于一个劳动力市场疲软的经济体，我们的估计表明，供给增长可以容纳需求增长率增加1个百分点，长期失业率下降0.74个百分点。无论大衰退是否包含在我们的样本中，这些滞后结果都是稳健的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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How large are hysteresis effects? Estimates from a Keynesian growth model

This paper estimates a demand-led model of macroeconomic growth and fluctuations in which the growth rate of the economy's supply side converges to the growth rate of demand. Convergence happens because labor supply and productivity growth respond to the degree of slack in the economy. Faster demand growth reduces unemployment and stimulates supply. We estimate the model using simulated method of moments and find that after a unit demand shock, labor productivity and labor supply increase by 0.8 and 0.2, respectively, in the long-run. For an economy with labor market slack, our estimates imply that supply growth could accommodate a one percentage point increase in the growth rate of demand with a 0.74 percentage point reduction in the long-run unemployment rate. These hysteresis results are robust to whether or not the Great Recession is included in our sample.

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

10.50%

发文量

199

期刊介绍： The journal provides an outlet for publication of research concerning all theoretical and empirical aspects of economic dynamics and control as well as the development and use of computational methods in economics and finance. Contributions regarding computational methods may include, but are not restricted to, artificial intelligence, databases, decision support systems, genetic algorithms, modelling languages, neural networks, numerical algorithms for optimization, control and equilibria, parallel computing and qualitative reasoning.