Electoral Studies最新文献_第4页

Did Trump do better where inflation was worse? Evidence from county-level data 特朗普在通胀更严重的地方做得更好吗？证据来自县级数据

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103039

Patrick Flavin

{"title":"Did Trump do better where inflation was worse? Evidence from county-level data","authors":"Patrick Flavin","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Popular media accounts of the 2024 U.S. presidential election contend that inflation played a decisive role in Donald Trump's victory over Kamala Harris. The limited scholarly studies conducted so far on the election also suggest that voters' concerns about inflation and higher prices were pivotal. However, these studies rely exclusively on voters' surveyed perceptions of inflation whereas, to date, there has not been an analysis of whether Trump did better in areas where inflation was objectively worse. Using existing data sources to calculate a measure of price increases at the county level leading up to the 2024 election, I assess whether Trump performed better (relative to the 2020 election) in counties where inflation was higher. My analysis reveals generally consistent evidence that Trump's vote share improved more where inflation was higher – across counties, a one standard deviation increase in inflation predicts a 0.07 to 0.15 percentage point increase in vote share depending on the spending category in question. Notably, in subsample analyses, I also find that the relationship between inflation and Trump's performance is particularly pronounced in lower income counties where the pain of higher prices was likely most acutely felt by voters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103039"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145839280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fickle loyalties: Intragroup competition in open list elections 易变的忠诚：公开名单选举中的集团内部竞争

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103010

Andrew Saab

引用次数: 0

Ableist institutions and party selection processes: Exploring the political recruitment of disabled candidates 残疾主义制度和政党选拔过程：探索残疾候选人的政治招募

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103040

Elizabeth Evans , Stefanie Reher

{"title":"Ableist institutions and party selection processes: Exploring the political recruitment of disabled candidates","authors":"Elizabeth Evans , Stefanie Reher","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Political parties in the UK and elsewhere have, to varying degrees, tried to diversify the pool of candidates from which they can select. Attempts to eradicate the range of institutional and cultural barriers experienced by candidates from under-represented groups, such as women and racially minoritized communities, are beginning to bear fruit. However, less attention has been paid to the specific processes and norms which might make it harder for disabled people to get selected as candidates for elected office. Accordingly, this study takes the UK as its case study to address two inter related questions: 1) what are the political parties doing to make candidate selection more accessible for disabled people?; and 2) what are the experiences of disabled people who participate in the candidate selection process? Drawing upon qualitative analysis of formal party rules and processes, alongside interviews undertaken with over 80 disabled candidates, politicians, and party activists from across the political spectrum, we find a great deal of variation in party approaches. We also identify gaps between formal rules adopted to ensure accessibility and the experiences of disabled candidates. Along the way we also note some of the methodological and empirical challenges of studying candidate selection processes in relation to disability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103040"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Campaign spending in mixed member proportional systems: How political and institutional context shapes party strategy 混合成员比例制度下的竞选支出：政治和制度背景如何塑造政党战略

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103027

Dominic Nyhuis , Sebastian Block , Morten Harmening , Tilko Swalve

{"title":"Campaign spending in mixed member proportional systems: How political and institutional context shapes party strategy","authors":"Dominic Nyhuis , Sebastian Block , Morten Harmening , Tilko Swalve","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite extensive work on local campaign spending, existing research has mostly focused on campaign expenditures in majoritarian systems, while disregarding spending patterns under other institutional arrangements. To help fill this gap, we study how parties allocate their funds in mixed member systems. Based on the notion of contamination between the electoral tiers, we argue that spending is less targeted toward winning the district mandate under mixed electoral rules than would be expected in a pure majoritarian system, as parties stand to benefit from a visible district contender even when they lose the race. Studying candidate survey data collected over the course of four German federal elections between 2009 and 2021, this expectation is confirmed. While the general pattern is evident in all four elections, the shifting political and institutional context of campaigning in Germany has changed party strategies. A more proportional electoral system, along with a more fragmented party system has put a nominal mandate within reach of smaller parties, while larger parties are less sure about winning in their former strongholds, prompting parties to move to more targeted spending on competitive seats.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103027"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145624480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to ‘Happy and glorious? The sometimes-unifying effects of the British monarchy’ [Elect. Stud. 96 (2025) 1-7 102961] “快乐和光荣？”英国君主政体有时会产生统一的效果。螺柱96 (2025)1-7 [2961]

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103005

Braeden Davis , Yu-Shiuan Huang

引用次数: 0

Applicability of quantitatively predictive logical models at subnational level of governance: Testing the Seat Product Model on Polish, Czech, Hungarian and Slovak regional elections 定量预测逻辑模型在国家以下一级治理中的适用性：对波兰、捷克、匈牙利和斯洛伐克地区选举的席位产品模型进行测试

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103033

Pavel Maškarinec

{"title":"Applicability of quantitatively predictive logical models at subnational level of governance: Testing the Seat Product Model on Polish, Czech, Hungarian and Slovak regional elections","authors":"Pavel Maškarinec","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103033","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103033","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper extends Taagepera's predictive logic (quantitively predictive logical models) to test whether a Seat Product Model derived from national level of governance and based on institutional variables alone – the country's average district magnitude (<em>M</em>) and assembly size (<em>S</em>) – has the same predictive capacity on subnational levels of governance. To address the gap in subnational-level research of quantitively predictive logical models, we test the Seat Product Model on an original new cross-sectional dataset from elections to regional legislatures in four Central European countries (Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia) between 1994 and 2024 (i.e. all elections since the establishment of their respective self-governing regions). We analyse 403 regional elections overall to verify the logical model's capacity to predict the number of seat-winning parties, the seat shares of the largest parties, and the effective number of parties. We find that when confronted with the empirical data, the Seat Product did not reach the same level of accuracy in regional elections as in national elections. However, as the results in some cases were not too far from theoretical expectations (especially after incorporating the temporal dimension, which suggested that electoral system outcomes only tend to align with institutional expectations after several electoral cycles), further research should aim to expand the Seat Product to include the multi-level perspective to control for any effects of the institutional arrangements that exist on the higher (national) level of governance. Indeed, regional party systems are embedded systems and can only be fully understood when broader institutional context is taken into account.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103033"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145690557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Political violence and invalid voting: A case study 政治暴力与无效投票：个案研究

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103025

Abelardo Gómez Díaz

引用次数: 0

Amplifying the message? The effect of endorsements in primary elections 放大信息？支持在初选中的作用

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103020

Alessio Albarello , Mayya Komisarchik

引用次数: 0

Persistent breeze from the winds of change: Partisan alignments of protest participants after democratic transition 变革之风带来的持久微风：民主转型后抗议参与者的党派联盟

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103000

Zeth Isaksson

{"title":"Persistent breeze from the winds of change: Partisan alignments of protest participants after democratic transition","authors":"Zeth Isaksson","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103000","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103000","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>By the early 1990s, millions across Central and Eastern Europe mobilized against socialist regimes. Despite their pivotal role in democratization, little is known about the long-term political trajectories of those who participated in these movements. Using three decades of intergenerational panel data from the former German Democratic Republic (GDR), I trace the partisan alignments of 1989 protest participants—over time and across generations. I find that former protesters are consistently less likely to support the successor party of the socialist regime (Die Linke) and more likely to support its historical opponent (CDU) as well as the protest-origin party (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen). Crucially, they do not show increased support for the far-right (AfD), despite the party's efforts to appropriate the legacy of 1989. They also display more right-leaning orientations, higher satisfaction with democracy, and substantially less nostalgia for the GDR. Among their children, patterns of partisan alignment—particularly rejection of Die Linke and support for the CDU—are evident only when parents are politically engaged, underscoring the conditional nature of intergenerational transmission. Together, these findings show that protest participants constitute an important segment of the electorate in societies that transitioned through non-violent means and are vital to analyze for understanding political behavior in post-authoritarian settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103000"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Facts Speak Louder? Comparing the attention effects of moral and factual framing of political issues 事实更响亮？比较政治问题的道德框架和事实框架的注意效果

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102996

Michal Tóth , Tadeáš Celý , Roman Chytilek

{"title":"Facts Speak Louder? Comparing the attention effects of moral and factual framing of political issues","authors":"Michal Tóth , Tadeáš Celý , Roman Chytilek","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102996","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102996","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The media and political actors play a crucial role in shaping public attention, not only by selecting which issues to highlight but also by framing them in ways that influence public perception and engagement. Given the increasing prominence of moralized discourse in political communication, we examine whether moral framing is more effective in capturing public attention compared to factual framing, which relies on empirical evidence and rational argumentation. To examine this question, we conducted two preregistered experimental studies using different methods to measure attention: an eye-tracking experiment (N = 99) and a large-scale online survey (N = 1563). Participants were exposed to political issues that are not predominantly associated with either type of framing and were randomly assigned to conditions where the issues were framed either morally or factually. Our findings indicate that moral framing does not consistently attract more attention than factual framing. In fact, in some situations, factual frames were associated with slightly higher levels of audience attention. Understanding these dynamics is crucial in an age of information overload, when competition for public attention is intense and public debate is often dominated by emotional or value-driven messages. Additionally, our research contributes to ongoing debates about the implications of moral framing, particularly its potential to polarize audiences or divert attention from evidence-based decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 102996"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0