Do second-order elections produce second-order governments? How national and regional factors influence the composition of regional governments

Abstract

Regional elections are broadly considered second-order elections, where voters tend to punish parties in national government and favor opposition, small, and new parties instead. Regional government formations are also influenced by national factors, as coalitions are more likely to form if a regional government is congruent with the national government. Nevertheless, how national and regional factors interact, and impact regional government compositions has received little attention. This article argues that national incumbency is both an asset and a liability for a party seeking to enter regional government. However, the extent to which a party's national government status matters for entering regional government is conditional upon the political system, the timing of a regional election relative to the national election, and the level of regional authority.