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The unfulfilled promises of upward mobility and support for radical left parties in Western Europe 未能实现的向上流动的承诺和对西欧激进左翼政党的支持
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102999
José Pedro Lopes
{"title":"The unfulfilled promises of upward mobility and support for radical left parties in Western Europe","authors":"José Pedro Lopes","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102999","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102999","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent decades, educational expansion has produced a large swathe of university graduates which labour markets are increasingly less able to absorb or pay adequately. As a result, they experience frustration from the unfulfilled promises of upward mobility. In this article, I contend that this experience of incomplete upward mobility is driving support for Radical Left Parties (RLPs) in Europe. Drawing on European Social Survey data, focusing on a sample of 24 RLPs in 15 Western European countries during a 15-year period (2008–2023), I explore how education mobility, class mobility and income interact in explaining radical left support. I find that radical left support increases for those who study more than their parents and do not achieve upward class mobility, as well as for those who experience upward class mobility but continue to struggle financially.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 102999"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corruption and accountability: Electoral systems, vote choice, and voter expectations for political parties 腐败与问责制:选举制度、投票选择和选民对政党的期望
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102998
Tiffany D. Barnes , Emily Beaulieu
{"title":"Corruption and accountability: Electoral systems, vote choice, and voter expectations for political parties","authors":"Tiffany D. Barnes ,&nbsp;Emily Beaulieu","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102998","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102998","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Why do some politicians’ careers survive political scandals while others are unable to recover? In this research note, we consider the critical role of electoral systems. We argue that in candidate-centered electoral systems, where voters cast their ballots for individual candidates (e.g., single member districts)—rather than political parties (e.g., closed-list proportional representation)—voters are more likely to hold candidates accountable for corruption at the ballot box. By contrast, in party-centered electoral systems, voters are likely to shift the responsibility to the party. Further, we anticipate voter expectations of party accountability are heightened when removing a candidate is relatively low-cost to the party. To assess how electoral systems influence accountability in the context of corruption, we analyze data from a survey experiment conducted in Taiwan—a democracy with a mixed-member majoritarian system with parallel voting. This context allows us to hold constant cultural and political factors that may otherwise influence outcomes, while manipulating the electoral system. We find voters are more likely to hold candidates directly accountable in candidate-centered systems, regardless of partisan preferences. Results regarding party expectations are less conclusive, with only a suggestion of expectations of party accountability in party-centered systems, when the candidate in questions is less competitive.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 102998"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of incumbency in a mixed-member electoral system 在任者在混合成员选举制度中的影响
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102988
B.K. Song
{"title":"The effect of incumbency in a mixed-member electoral system","authors":"B.K. Song","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102988","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102988","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, I demonstrate that incumbency advantage can arise for different reasons across electoral systems by examining a mixed-member system. My findings from a regression discontinuity design indicate that an incumbency advantage exists in both district and proportional representation (PR) tiers. Additionally, I provide evidence that distinct mechanisms underpin these advantages: parties strategically assign favorable ballot positions to incumbents from both tiers when competing for district seats, but this party-driven advantage is more pronounced for PR incumbents. By contrast, voter support mechanisms mainly favor district incumbents. Finally, I demonstrate that this incumbency advantage is short-lived for both tiers, which implies that an entry-level political office does not necessarily serve as a springboard for career politicians in the South Korean mixed-member system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 102988"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cultivating trust? The role of European Union investments in bridging rural-urban divides 培养信任?欧盟投资在弥合城乡差距方面的作用
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102987
Paul Maneuvrier-Hervieu , Leo Azzollini , Anne-Marie Jeannet
{"title":"Cultivating trust? The role of European Union investments in bridging rural-urban divides","authors":"Paul Maneuvrier-Hervieu ,&nbsp;Leo Azzollini ,&nbsp;Anne-Marie Jeannet","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102987","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102987","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the last decades, agricultural policies and structural investment funds for regional development have been central to European integration. However, the political effects of these funds, designed to enhance economic and social cohesion within the European Union and address regional disparities, remain contested. Existing research has established that rural residents tend to exhibit lower levels of political trust in the European Union compared to their urban counterparts. In this paper, we empirically examine whether institutional investments can mitigate the urban-rural divide in political trust toward the European Union. Specifically, we explore the potential of EU funds to enhance trust by fostering regional economic dynamics, and whether this is socially stratified. Analyzing 17 waves of Eurobarometer data (2003–2020) across 27 European countries, 99 regions, and around 370,000 individuals, we find that the rural-urban divide tends to be mitigated in regions receiving higher levels of investment. Moreover, we observe that EU investments disproportionately predict higher trust among individuals from middle to lower socioeconomic strata compared to those from upper strata, narrowing the gap at higher levels of investment (15–18 % of a standard deviation). Examining the intersection of rural-urban and socio-economic divides, we observe that EU funds are more likely to predict higher trust amongst individuals from lower social strata, and the lowest trust among those from upper social strata. Our results imply that European institutional investment can reduce the gap between urban and rural residents due to the differences in the socio-demographic composition of these places.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 102987"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assisting the vote? Disability as a cost of voting 协助投票?残疾是投票的代价
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102997
Michael C. Herron , Daniel A. Smith
{"title":"Assisting the vote? Disability as a cost of voting","authors":"Michael C. Herron ,&nbsp;Daniel A. Smith","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102997","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102997","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tens of millions of voting-eligible Americans live with disabilities, many of whom need a form of assistance when casting ballots. Drawing on publicly available administrative data from five recent general elections in Florida (2014–2022), we offer a portrait of individuals who have attested when registering to vote that they need assistance when voting. Then, leveraging turnout data as well as vote-by-mail (VBM) requests and returned ballot data from our five elections, we model turnout and the likelihood of having a rejected VBM ballot as a function of the need for voting assistance, among other voter-level factors. We find that the rate of registered voters needing assistance has remained steady in Florida at roughly three percent, that older and racial/ethnic minority voters are more likely to attest that they need assistance to vote, and that, all things equal, voters needing assistance not only have a lower overall turnout rate but also are slightly more likely to have their VBM ballots rejected than registered voters who do not indicate they need assistance to vote.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 102997"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Facts Speak Louder? Comparing the attention effects of moral and factual framing of political issues 事实更响亮?比较政治问题的道德框架和事实框架的注意效果
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102996
Michal Tóth , Tadeáš Celý , Roman Chytilek
{"title":"Facts Speak Louder? Comparing the attention effects of moral and factual framing of political issues","authors":"Michal Tóth ,&nbsp;Tadeáš Celý ,&nbsp;Roman Chytilek","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102996","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102996","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The media and political actors play a crucial role in shaping public attention, not only by selecting which issues to highlight but also by framing them in ways that influence public perception and engagement. Given the increasing prominence of moralized discourse in political communication, we examine whether moral framing is more effective in capturing public attention compared to factual framing, which relies on empirical evidence and rational argumentation. To examine this question, we conducted two preregistered experimental studies using different methods to measure attention: an eye-tracking experiment (N = 99) and a large-scale online survey (N = 1563). Participants were exposed to political issues that are not predominantly associated with either type of framing and were randomly assigned to conditions where the issues were framed either morally or factually. Our findings indicate that moral framing does not consistently attract more attention than factual framing. In fact, in some situations, factual frames were associated with slightly higher levels of audience attention. Understanding these dynamics is crucial in an age of information overload, when competition for public attention is intense and public debate is often dominated by emotional or value-driven messages. Additionally, our research contributes to ongoing debates about the implications of moral framing, particularly its potential to polarize audiences or divert attention from evidence-based decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 102996"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Learning to vote in democratic and authoritarian elections 学习在民主和专制选举中投票
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102985
Anja Neundorf , Ksenia Northmore-Ball
{"title":"Learning to vote in democratic and authoritarian elections","authors":"Anja Neundorf ,&nbsp;Ksenia Northmore-Ball","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102985","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102985","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High turnout levels are key to legitimacy in new democracies, ultimately contributing to their consolidation. However, little is known about the determinants of long-term electoral participation and how the legacies of authoritarian and democratic elections compare. To investigate these individual-level legacies, we rely on socialization and institutional theories of turnout, which have not been tested in authoritarian settings. We rely on newly harmonized public opinion data covering over 106 countries from 1975 to 2016 to estimate generational differences in propensity to vote. Leveraging within-country variation, we confirm the positive effects of early opportunities on turnout later in life. Generations of voters who experienced their formative years in authoritarian contexts without national elections are less likely to take up opportunities to vote later in life than those with some formative experience of elections, even uncompetitive ones. However, experiencing high numbers of uncompetitive elections, typical in authoritarian elections, can jade voters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 102985"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144920059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Issue congruence outweighs geography: Understanding the appeal of Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) in east and west Germany 议题一致性胜过地理:理解BSW在东德和西德的吸引力
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102986
Jan Philipp Thomeczek , Aiko Wagner
{"title":"Issue congruence outweighs geography: Understanding the appeal of Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) in east and west Germany","authors":"Jan Philipp Thomeczek ,&nbsp;Aiko Wagner","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102986","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102986","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 102986"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144907581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Vote choice under certainty, risk, and uncertainty 确定性、风险和不确定性下的投票选择
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102972
Guido Tiemann
{"title":"Vote choice under certainty, risk, and uncertainty","authors":"Guido Tiemann","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102972","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102972","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Voters are thought to be repelled by unclear party communication or all-out uncertainty about their ideological or programmatic positions. Our contribution builds on a series of survey experiments in the alternative states of certainty, risk, and uncertainty. Choice under risk occurs, for instance, when electoral platforms transmit blurred or unclear signals. However, the range of potential positions and their respective probabilities is considered common, exogenous knowledge: we find that these scenarios neither attract nor repel voters. In contrast, choice under uncertainty is given when potential outcomes or their respective probabilities are unknown to the voters and require endogenous cognitive abilities and endogenous signal processing: we demonstrate that choice under uncertainty tends to drive away voters. The experimental setup considers both spatial and non-spatial components of voter utility and their contextual conditions to bolster external validity and arrive at more internally and externally valid assessments of vote choice under various “states of nature”.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 102972"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144852302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do voters on the left show more solidarity behaviour? Novel behavioural evidence from interactive surveys in Austria, West and East Germany 左翼选民表现出更多的团结行为吗?来自奥地利、西德和东德互动调查的新行为证据
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102980
Achim Goerres, Jakob Eicheler
{"title":"Do voters on the left show more solidarity behaviour? Novel behavioural evidence from interactive surveys in Austria, West and East Germany","authors":"Achim Goerres,&nbsp;Jakob Eicheler","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102980","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102980","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Voters on the left typically demand more public redistribution than those on the right. While existing research has demonstrated differences in social behaviour by political ideology, we know little on whether left voters are willing to show more costly solidarity towards others. In this study, we test pre-registered hypotheses on whether the MARPOR left-right score of voters’ preferred party and left-right self-placement predict more solidarity behaviour. We introduce a novel Extended Solidarity Game to measure costly solidarity behaviour as contributions to compensate for income losses of others in randomly assigned groups. The behavioural instrument allows for simultaneous group interactions and was embedded in online surveys in the party system contexts of Austria, West and East Germany. We find evidence for the predicted ideological differences in solidarity: while the MARPOR left-right score shows only a non-significant effect in the expected direction, left-right self-placement (as well as the CHES scores) show a strong, robust and significant effect. The strength of this relationship is highly context-dependent: in Austria and West Germany, predicted contributions of leftmost participants are about 8 percentage points higher than those of rightmost participants. In East Germany, this predicted difference amounts to about 30 percentage points. Additional analyses rule out differences in social trust, economic or cultural political orientations as alternative explanations for the context-dependency of the effect. We argue that the East German party system – characterised by clearer programmatic party differences and more intense party competition – leads voters to define their ideological position more clearly and increases the behavioural relevance of political ideology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 102980"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144827756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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