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Masking turnout inequality. Invalid voting and class bias when compulsory voting is reinstated 掩盖投票率的不平等。恢复强制投票时的无效投票和阶级偏见
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102878
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引用次数: 0
The populist impulse: Cognitive reflection, populist attitudes and candidate preferences 民粹主义冲动：认知反思、民粹主义态度和候选人偏好
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102868
{"title":"The populist impulse: Cognitive reflection, populist attitudes and candidate preferences","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102868","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102868","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, I examine cognitive reflection, i.e., the ability to suppress one's spontaneous intuition to engage in higher-level analytical thinking, as a predictor of populist attitudes and candidate preferences. I develop a set of hypotheses which link the ideological content of populism to lower levels of cognitive reflection. I test these hypotheses with an original survey conducted on a representative sample of the UK population, in which respondents were asked to complete a cognitive reflection test, answer questions from a scale of populist attitudes, and respond to a conjoint experiment of hypothetical parliamentary candidates whose populist ideology is randomly attributed. I find that populist attitudes are negatively associated with cognitive reflection (p &lt; 0.05). Furthermore, I also find suggestive evidence that anti-elite and conflict-seeking conjoint attributes interact negatively with respondent-level cognitive reflection on the formation of conjoint preferences (p &lt; 0.1). However, I find no such interaction with respect to people centric attributes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142424557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does decentralization boost electoral participation? Revisiting the question in a non-western context 权力下放会促进选举参与吗？在非西方背景下重新审视这一问题
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102873
{"title":"Does decentralization boost electoral participation? Revisiting the question in a non-western context","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since the late 1970s, intergovernmental relationships worldwide have undergone an unequivocal transformation, with powers increasingly shifting toward subnational governments. One of the expected outcomes of decentralization reforms is a (re)vitalization of participation in subnational decision-making. If available empirical evidence tends to support this claim, it has remained primarily restricted to <span>Western</span> countries. This article leverages asymmetric decentralization arrangements in Ukraine to re-examine the effect of decentralization on voter turnout in a diverging setting. It conducts matching and regression analyses using an original city-level dataset that combines electoral, census, administrative, financial and geospatial data. The results converge on a significantly positive effect on voter turnout in local elections of more than 4 percentage points. Additional analyses concerning the mechanisms suggest that the effect might be driven by citizens’ awareness of electoral stakes. Interestingly, the increase in voter turnout appears concomitant with lower perceived local government performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142424556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A decomposition of partisan advantage in electoral district maps 选区地图中党派优势的分解
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102871
{"title":"A decomposition of partisan advantage in electoral district maps","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102871","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102871","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a framework to decompose the partisan advantage in a map of electoral districts into four contributing factors: the fairness notion used to evaluate the map, political geography, rules on redistricting criteria that the map must meet, and the discretionary choice of which specific map to adopt. We apply this factor decomposition to the 2021–22 U.S. congressional district map in each state. Such a decomposition can distinguish maps with large partisan advantages that reflect a non-partisan underlying cause, from gerrymandered maps in which the advantage is attributable to the deliberate partisan choices of map-makers, such as the pro-Republican maps in Florida and Texas, or the pro-Democratic map in Illinois.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142424555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Revisiting eligibility effects of voting at 16: Insights from Austria based on regression discontinuity analyses 重新审视 16 岁投票资格的影响：基于回归不连续分析的奥地利启示
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102870
{"title":"Revisiting eligibility effects of voting at 16: Insights from Austria based on regression discontinuity analyses","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102870","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102870","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142424558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Social trust and the winner-loser gap 社会信任与输赢差距
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102869
{"title":"Social trust and the winner-loser gap","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102869","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102869","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The electoral winner-loser gap literature has shown sharp differences between citizens who vote for winning and losing options in key indicators of political support. In this article, we claim that the influence of election results can extend beyond the political domain and reach citizens’ level of social trust. Indeed, elections can reveal to citizens who voted for the winning option that their preferences are aligned with the majority opinion of society, while it signals the opposite to electoral losers. We hypothesize that this contrast will trigger a gap in the level of social trust between winners and losers, and that this gap will be larger among politically engaged voters relative to those more disinterested in political affairs. To contrast our hypotheses, we conducted two online panel surveys with a pre-post electoral design during two recent elections in Chile. Estimates from Two-way Fixed Effects regression models support our main theoretical expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142424554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does a voter's decision to sit out an election depend upon where others stand? 选民是否决定不参加选举取决于其他人的立场？
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102864
{"title":"Does a voter's decision to sit out an election depend upon where others stand?","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102864","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102864","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This analysis uses plausibly exogenous changes in electoral boundaries to investigate how voting participation is affected by local concentrations of voters who favor majority or minority parties. Novel instrumental variable and difference-in-differences models suggest that – even while accounting for overall electoral competitiveness – participation rates increase where there exist greater concentrations of voters who support majority parties, but a similar effect is not evident for less-popular, minority parties. Furthermore, this effect is driven by spending patterns of the dominant party in the local district.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142326553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sorry Not Sorry: Presentational strategies and the electoral punishment of corruption 对不起不是罪过：陈述策略与选举惩治腐败
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102867
{"title":"Sorry Not Sorry: Presentational strategies and the electoral punishment of corruption","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102867","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102867","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A growing literature has explored various factors that hamper the electoral punishment of corruption. Most studies have focused on how voters react to a corruption allegation, but this focus leaves out an important, common aspect of corruption allegations that voters also encounter: politicians' blame avoidance strategies. This study examines how politicians' presentational strategies in response to corruption allegations affect voter sanctioning. Employing an online survey experiment on a sample of 3531 U.S. citizens, we find that politicians' action-oriented strategies, such as denying allegations, acknowledging a problem but denying responsibility, or acknowledging a problem and taking responsibility, are more effective than passive non-response. These three active strategies do not differ in their effectiveness. This result is robust to heterogenous levels of state-level corruption, partisan bias, and political knowledge. Our findings suggest that politicians’ presentational strategies may undermine political accountability for corruption, although they do not fully counteract the effect of corruption on voting intentions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142323923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Individual Electoral Competitiveness: Undecided voters, complex choice environments and lower turnout 个人选举竞争力：未决定的选民、复杂的选择环境和较低的投票率
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102866
{"title":"Individual Electoral Competitiveness: Undecided voters, complex choice environments and lower turnout","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102866","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102866","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The number of citizens that are undecided in their vote choice has risen in Western democracies. Polling in Britain shows that a significant proportion of the population do not know who they will vote for. Against a backdrop of partisan dealignment and party system fragmentation, there are more parties on the ballot and more citizens ‘free to choose’. Partisanship continues to be important for voting and lacking an identity is a predictor of aggregate voter volatility. A growing literature conceptualises this availability of voters as individual-level electoral competitiveness, stating that undecided citizens are subject to high levels of competition for their vote. I use this framework and apply theory from the decisionmaking literature to offer why these conditions may depress turnout. I construct a measure of undecided voters who are ‘in competition’ and show that this accounts for 40% of the <em>British Election Study Internet Panel</em> respondents. I demonstrate that those who are in competition are less likely to vote. They are more often those without a partisan identity and those who pay less attention to politics, but being in competition is not related to constituency marginality. The results help explain a key determinant of abstention in British elections and suggest low levels of participation may be due to complex choice environments and citizen indecision. However, they provide a positive outlook for pluralistic democracy as voters do deliberate between the party perspectives on offer.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142320428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Speech targeting and constituency representation in open-list electoral systems 公开名单选举制度中的演讲目标和选区代表性
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102865
{"title":"Speech targeting and constituency representation in open-list electoral systems","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102865","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102865","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the localistic behavior of legislators elected under open-list proportional representation (OLPR), focusing on the impacts of district magnitude, intra-party competition, electorate size, and the presence of a national tier. We examine the Ecuadorian case, where institutional reformers implemented a national tier to offset the parochial tendencies of lower-tier provincial legislators yet retained OLPR for both tiers. Our study, which analyzes a 12-year dataset of congressional speeches, challenges the expectation that national-tier members are less localistic than their provincial counterparts and shows that electoral incentives drive legislators’ geographical focus. Contrary to conventional expectations, we find no evidence that increased intra-party competition is associated with more localistic behavior. However, there is consistent support for the hypothesis that smaller electoral constituencies amplify localistic behavior.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142274357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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