Electoral Studies最新文献

Evaluating nonresponse and non-sampling error trends in election studies

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102934

Hafsteinn Einarsson, Agnar Freyr Helgason

{"title":"Evaluating nonresponse and non-sampling error trends in election studies","authors":"Hafsteinn Einarsson, Agnar Freyr Helgason","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102934","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102934","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Political scientists rely on election studies as high-quality sources of data on voting behavior and attitudes. However, despite a cross-national trend of declining response rates over time and a lively debate regarding the accuracy of pre-election polls, data quality in election studies is an underdiscussed topic. In this paper, we address this research gap by focusing on trends in survey participation and non-sampling errors over time using data from the Icelandic National Election Study over a period spanning nearly four decades (1983–2021). We find that response rates have halved in the period under study (from around 70 % to 36 %), caused by increasing noncontact rates. Focusing on sample composition, we find that response rates have declined more among young adults and those without university degrees than other sample subgroups. To assess non-sampling error trends, we propose a simple metric based on the mean average error (MAE), which accounts for the number of parties and the sample size. Surprisingly, we find that despite decreasing response rates, the MAE has not increased, and for most elections, we cannot rule out sampling error alone as the explanation for the MAE. Finally, we show that adjustment weights have small and inconsistent effects on the MAE, suggesting that the auxiliary information available in the Icelandic context lacks the strong correlations needed to reduce error in the estimation of vote choice. We conclude with a discussion of these findings, their implications, and some guidance for practitioners seeking to evaluate data quality that can inform changes to the design of election studies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102934"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143829507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game?

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102933

John Kenny , Michael S. Lewis-Beck

引用次数: 0

Voting under debtor distress

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102929

Jakub Grossmann , Štěpán Jurajda

引用次数: 0

What drives the link between university study and attitudinal change?

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102930

Elizabeth Simon , Daniel Devine , Jamie Furlong

{"title":"What drives the link between university study and attitudinal change?","authors":"Elizabeth Simon , Daniel Devine , Jamie Furlong","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102930","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102930","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>What drives the link between university study and attitudinal change? While research shows that obtaining a degree tends to make students more socially liberal, little is known about what drives this effect. We address this ‘how’ question by testing the socialisation-based mechanisms through which university study may shift attitudes; combining individual-level panel data from the British Election Study Internet Panel with university- and constituency-level data about where respondents studied to estimate sub-group effects. Our results suggest that students tend to shift their attitudes subtly in a leftward and liberal direction whilst at university, but that this average effect is larger for: those who graduate younger, who study STEM and other non-HSS subjects (social attitudes only), who move away from home to study, who attend single campus institutions, and who live in ‘university towns’ and ‘cosmopolitan London’ while studying (all economic attitudes only). Overall, we find evidence to suggest that the socialisation experiences individuals are exposed to while studying have important shaping effects on their attitudes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102930"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143785444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Voter support for illiberal candidates: Demonstrating the differential influence of authoritarianism's three facets on vote choice

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102931

Aaron Dusso, Tijen Demirel-Pegg

{"title":"Voter support for illiberal candidates: Demonstrating the differential influence of authoritarianism's three facets on vote choice","authors":"Aaron Dusso, Tijen Demirel-Pegg","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102931","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102931","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The success of illiberal candidates across the globe has spurred scholars to better understand why millions of voters support candidates and parties that engage in anti-democratic practices that erode the very foundation of their countries’ democratic systems. While much research has turned to the psychological disposition known as authoritarianism for answers, few have gone beyond the general concept’s single dimension. This leaves us with an incomplete answer. Authoritarianism consists of three facets (submission, conventionalism, and aggression) and it cannot be assumed that each of these facets has the same influence on voters across all candidates and political contexts. Indeed, through the implementation of surveys in six countries following their recent national elections, we demonstrate how our understanding of authoritarian voter support for illiberal candidates is dependent on scholars’ choice of a single or multidimensional measure. The single dimensional measure shows a placid story consistent with previous research, i.e., scoring high in the authoritarianism leads to support for right-wing candidates. The three-dimensional story is much different, with support varying substantially from one candidate and facet to the next.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102931"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143785294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How does rurality affect campaigning?

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102932

Stephanie Luke , Charles Pattie , Luke Temple , Katharine Dommett

{"title":"How does rurality affect campaigning?","authors":"Stephanie Luke , Charles Pattie , Luke Temple , Katharine Dommett","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102932","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102932","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the UK, some constituencies are physically small and take in parts of densely populated cities, while others span huge geographic areas and may contain islands or hard to reach communities. These size variations have been shown to have important implications for the nature of electoral representation, but their impact on election campaigning is less discussed. In this paper we examine this relationship, using a mixed method approach to consider whether and how rurality affects campaign activity. First, conducting interviews with Scottish National Party campaigners and elected representatives from rural and urban constituencies, we identify a number of perceived challenges associated with rural campaigning. We then evaluate some of these perceptions at recent British general elections using data from the BES panel survey and from constituency election results. The perception that campaigns in rural constituencies take more time and effort, cost more to undertake, have different contact styles and are less effective in rural than in urban areas seems to be partly true for campaign contacts, but less so for campaign spending (a wider measure of campaign effort) or for campaign effectiveness. Campaigners’ perceptions of a rural disadvantage does not appear to be fully borne out in reality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102932"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143748298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Electoral role models: The impact of gender quotas on voters in Taiwan

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102927

Matthew Yi-Hsiu Lee

引用次数: 0

A quiet and invisible challenge: Depressive symptoms and the evaluation of democratic institutions

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102928

Claudia Landwehr , Christopher Ojeda , Paul Weingärtner

引用次数: 0

Who are the internet voters? An age, period and cohort analysis of e-voting use

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102923

Moulay Lablih , Pascal Sciarini

引用次数: 0

Relative out-party hostility and its consequences in multiparty democracies

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102924

Melek Hilal Eroglu

{"title":"Relative out-party hostility and its consequences in multiparty democracies","authors":"Melek Hilal Eroglu","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102924","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102924","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How extensive and intense is out-party hostility in contemporary multiparty democracies, and what are its consequences for democratic attitudes, political engagement, and voting behavior? While previous studies have highlighted increasing trends in such hostility, existing measures of the concept fall short in three key respects: they fail to account for the breadth and intensity of hostility in multiparty systems, they do not offer a singular measure for overall hostility, and they do not account for the relative prevalence of negative versus positive party affect. This paper introduces a new measure, ‘Relative Hostility’ to overcome these limitations. Using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) across 48 multiparty democracies, this study compares the effects of ‘Relative Hostility’ with those of existing measures of out-party hostility and Affective Polarization on democratic attitudes, support for extremism, and political participation. The findings demonstrate that ‘Relative Hostility’ more accurately explains the adverse effects on democracies, such as increased dissatisfaction with democracy and support for extremist parties. These findings underscore the urgent need for developing strategies that mitigate out-party hostility to bolster democratic resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102924"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143706527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0