Electoral Studies最新文献

From instability to hostility: Coalition collapse and affective polarization 从不稳定到敌对：联盟崩溃和情感两极分化

IF 2.7 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-08-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103114

Felix Hormig, Cyrill Otteni

{"title":"From instability to hostility: Coalition collapse and affective polarization","authors":"Felix Hormig, Cyrill Otteni","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103114","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103114","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How do sudden coalition breakdowns shape affective polarization in multiparty democracies? While a growing body of work examines how coalition cooperation structure partisan affect, comparatively little is known about how citizens react when coalitions break apart. We argue that coalition collapse is associated with affective polarization. More specifically, we contend that through a dynamic of scapegoating and blame-attribution, this overall difference is concentrated in greater out-party hostility rather than in-party favorability. We test these expectations by exploiting the abrupt collapse of the German “traffic light” coalition in November 2024, using an Unexpected Event during Survey Design comparing respondents interviewed before and after the collapse. We find that the post-collapse period is associated with higher levels of affective polarization, concentrated in greater hostility toward out-parties rather than stronger in-party attachment. Disaggregating to party-dyads reveals that this hostility is targeted, with dislike rising significantly toward the party publicly blamed for the breakdown, and toward anti-establishment parties, while evaluations of other parties remain stable. Subgroup analyses indicate that this targeted hostility is concentrated among supporters of left-wing parties. Coalition collapses, we argue, do not polarize multiparty electorates uniformly but selectively, along ideologically structured lines. The findings contribute to the literature on affective polarization in multiparty systems by highlighting coalition collapse as a distinct, blame-attribution-based mechanism that is associated with targeted rather than diffuse out-party hostility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"102 ","pages":"Article 103114"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148634630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Who won the feed? TikTok campaigning of the alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left in Germany’s 2025 federal election 谁赢得了饲料？TikTok为德国另类选择党（AfD）和左翼在2025年德国联邦选举中的竞选造反

IF 2.7 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-08-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103115

Victoria Palchikova, Julia Schulte-Cloos

{"title":"Who won the feed? TikTok campaigning of the alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left in Germany’s 2025 federal election","authors":"Victoria Palchikova, Julia Schulte-Cloos","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103115","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103115","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The 2025 German federal election marked a historic low for centrist parties among voters under 25, a demographic shift that coincided with TikTok becoming a primary news source. Integrating theories of political personalization with research on platformized communication, we argue that the digital resonance of the AfD and Die Linke is underpinned by their strategic alignment with TikTok’s specific logic, though they achieve success through divergent pathways. Analyzing a novel dataset of 3702 TikTok posts, we find that while structural personalization acts as a universal driver of engagement, the two parties mobilize different dimensions of the platform. The AfD excels at exploiting technical affordances like hashtags and duets to maximize visibility, while Die Linke secures engagement by adapting to participatory vernaculars such as humor and trending audio. We conclude that the platformized landscape accommodates distinct mobilization logics, where the radical right optimises for technical visibility to scale reach and the radical left secures engagement by aligning with the community’s participatory norms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"102 ","pages":"Article 103115"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148634633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exodus and vote: Mass emigration and voter turnout in Honduras 出埃及和投票：洪都拉斯的大规模移民和选民投票率

IF 2.7 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-08-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103117

Jesse Acevedo

{"title":"Exodus and vote: Mass emigration and voter turnout in Honduras","authors":"Jesse Acevedo","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103117","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does emigration motivate or discourage political participation in migrant sending countries? While emigration can reduce participation by removing opposition voters and weakening political efficacy, it may also signal widespread grievances and encourage participation among those who remain. This paper examines the immediate political effects of large-scale emigration and argues that emigration alone is insufficient to mobilize participation. Instead, when emigration is visible and perceived as a collective act, it sends a political signal that updates citizens’ beliefs about the status quo. Drawing on a pre-registered survey experiment conducted in Honduras ahead of the 2021 presidential election, I test how framing emigration as either a private decision or a collective act in the form of migrant caravans shapes intentions to vote. Respondents exposed to the caravan framing were five percentage points more likely to report intentions to vote than those in the control group and four percentage points more likely than those exposed to the private decision framing. Using causal mediation analysis, I examine whether these effects operate through nationalized perceptions of migration and politics but find no clear evidence of mediation, which may reflect ceiling and floor effects. These findings highlight the importance of framing in shaping how emigration influences political participation among those who remain.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"102 ","pages":"Article 103117"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148634629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The myth of compensatory effects: How party organisation shapes women's representation in dual-candidacy mixed electoral systems 补偿效应的神话：政党组织如何在双候选人混合选举制度中塑造女性代表

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103057

Heinz Brandenburg , Maarja Lühiste

{"title":"The myth of compensatory effects: How party organisation shapes women's representation in dual-candidacy mixed electoral systems","authors":"Heinz Brandenburg , Maarja Lühiste","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103057","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103057","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Electoral systems are widely recognised as important institutional determinants explaining women's political representation. Mixed-member proportional (MMP) systems, for example, are expected to enhance women's representation by combining single-member districts with PR lists, with the latter compensating for barriers women traditionally face in constituency contests. This article challenges the underlying assumption that candidate selection in MMP's two tiers operates independently, arguing instead that decentralised candidate selection makes most MMP systems function more like pure single-member district (SMD) systems than proportional representation (PR) systems. Using Germany as a case study, and utilising a unique custom-built dataset spanning 13 election cycles from 1976 to 2025, we find that decentralised candidate selection creates strong linkages across both tiers. Constituency nomination appears as an almost necessary pre-condition to get elected via the list-PR tier, meaning that barriers to women's candidacy in single-member districts carry over also to the supposedly more favourable PR component. This interconnection undermines the compensatory logic of MMP design for women's representation. We find that local selectors in Germany's largely decentralised system remain reluctant to nominate women in rural areas, safe seats and right-wing parties, while prior female candidacy in the constituency increases women's chances to secure a nomination. The evidence thus suggests that where candidate selection remains decentralised, even mixed electoral system cannot overcome local party elites' resistance to female candidates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 103057"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do open lists increase turnout? Probably not, but they increase rates of voter error: New evidence from Spain 公开名单会增加投票率吗？也许不会，但他们增加了选民错误率：来自西班牙的新证据

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103060

Leonardo Carella

{"title":"Do open lists increase turnout? Probably not, but they increase rates of voter error: New evidence from Spain","authors":"Leonardo Carella","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103060","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article challenges the claim that open-list systems are beneficial for electoral participation, by reassessing and extending the analysis in a notable empirical paper that advances this argument. The paper (Carlos Sanz, “The effect of electoral systems on voter turnout: Evidence from a natural experiment”, <em>PSRM</em>, 2017) leverages a population-based discontinuity in Spanish municipal elections (1979–2011), where towns with fewer than 250 residents employ open lists whereas larger towns employ closed lists. Through a series of statistical tests and the inspection of alternative data sources, I show that the positive effect of open lists on turnout estimated in the paper is dubious, for two reasons: (1) <em>non-random missing data</em>, due to inconsistencies in how non-valid votes were recorded above and below the threshold, and (2) <em>compound treatment</em> issues, due to changes in list-length requirements at the threshold. I then proceed to show that, rather than improving turnout, the more complex open-list ballot actually hinders voters’ ability to express their preferences, by increasing the incidence of voter errors relative to closed lists (reflected in higher rates of ‘null’ voting). To support a causal interpretation of this relationship, I present evidence from the analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects, and show that a similar pattern obtains in Spanish general elections, where open and closed lists are used concurrently for the election of the country’s bicameral parliament. I conclude by discussing the implications of the analysis for implementing population-based regression discontinuities and evaluating electoral system effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 103060"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146189832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do voters hold the president’s party accountable for local economic conditions? 选民是否认为总统所在的政党对当地的经济状况负责？

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103058

B.K. Song

引用次数: 0

Just like me? Testing descriptive attributes as voting heuristics 就像我一样？测试描述性属性作为投票启发式

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103045

Leonie Rettig, Lukas Isermann

{"title":"Just like me? Testing descriptive attributes as voting heuristics","authors":"Leonie Rettig, Lukas Isermann","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103045","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103045","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The lack of candidate diversity and the descriptive under-representation of groups such as women and young people in parliaments is a recurring concern in both public and academic debates. While prior studies have examined whether voters prefer candidates who share their gender or age, findings remain mixed and are often based on experimental designs. Using conditional logit models and combined survey-candidate data from the 2021 German Federal Election, we assess whether voters considered gender and age similarities with district candidates when casting their votes. This election, shaped by heightened media focus on under-represented groups and public discourse around gender and age, offers a strong case for exploring group-based voting behavior. Despite this context, our results show no general effect of gender or age similarity on vote choice. Gender cues do not influence candidate preferences, even among women or left-leaning voters. While age similarity has no overall impact, younger voters on the left are more likely to support younger candidates, whereas their right-leaning counterparts favour older ones. These findings suggest that identity-based cues matter only for specific subgroups under certain conditions. Our study highlights the limits of affinity voting in information-rich settings compared to the stronger effects often found in experimental research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 103045"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145986728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Wishful thinking in mass–elite electoral expectations 大众精英对选举期望的一厢情愿

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103059

Philippe Mongrain , Anam Kuraishi , Karolin Soontjens , Stefaan Walgrave

{"title":"Wishful thinking in mass–elite electoral expectations","authors":"Philippe Mongrain , Anam Kuraishi , Karolin Soontjens , Stefaan Walgrave","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103059","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103059","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores politicians’ expectations of future election outcomes, the accuracy of these predictions, and the role of wishful thinking in shaping such electoral estimations. Before the 2024 regional elections in Belgium, local politicians were surveyed to gather their views on the likelihood of regional political parties winning or losing seats, as well as the probability of these parties being part of the next government coalition. To benchmark politicians’ predictions and the accuracy thereof, similar survey evidence was collected among citizens in a parallel survey. Our findings reveal that both politicians and citizens are strongly influenced in their electoral predictions by wishful thinking, often leading them to overestimate the likelihood of favourable outcomes for their preferred party. Interestingly, we found almost no difference in how partisan identities shaped expectations and the accuracy of forecasts between these two groups. This suggests that even politicians, whose roles often require them to be more strategically attuned to electoral dynamics, are just as susceptible to cognitive biases as the general public.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 103059"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146189831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does switching pay off? The impact of parliamentary party instability on individual electoral performance 换工作有回报吗？议会政党不稳定对个人选举表现的影响

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103037

Allan Sikk , Sona N. Golder , Raimondas Ibenskas , Paulina Sałek-Lipcean

引用次数: 0

Introduction to the Special Issue “The rural-urban divide in Europe: Assessing its impact on political attitudes and voting behavior” 特刊“欧洲的城乡差距：评估其对政治态度和投票行为的影响”导言

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103028

Pedro Riera , Sigrid Roßteutscher

引用次数: 0