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Voting alone: Early voting and turnout in couples 单独投票：提前投票和夫妻投票
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102960
Johannes Bergh , Dag Arne Christensen , Henning Finseraas
{"title":"Voting alone: Early voting and turnout in couples","authors":"Johannes Bergh ,&nbsp;Dag Arne Christensen ,&nbsp;Henning Finseraas","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102960","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102960","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Low-turnout groups have less knowledge and understanding of politics. Therefore, their decision to vote may depend more on their family/partner, in which case voting is more of a social than an individual act. The increased use of early voting makes voting more individualized, and we ask if that has a detrimental effect on the propensity to vote in certain groups. If the partner votes prior to election day does that influence the turnout decision of the other partner? Based on administrative voter data covering the entire Norwegian population over several elections, we find that low-propensity voters in couples are demobilized by a partner's early vote, whereas, if anything, the opposite is true for high-propensity voters. There is no demobilization effect in a placebo analysis of couples who divorce between two elections, which suggests that demobilization among couples is not purely driven by selection into early voting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102960"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144480664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Toothless compulsory voting can increase turnout: Evidence from India 无效的强制投票可以提高投票率：来自印度的证据
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102951
Reshikesav Rajan , Shane P. Singh
{"title":"Toothless compulsory voting can increase turnout: Evidence from India","authors":"Reshikesav Rajan ,&nbsp;Shane P. Singh","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102951","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102951","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many places with mandatory voting do not enforce the legal obligation to participate. This raises the question of whether such “toothless” compulsory voting increases turnout, to which existing research provides conflicting answers. We expect that toothless mandatory voting boosts participation, as laws can shape behavior absent deterrence. Leveraging a reform in India, and with a novel dataset, we conduct a causally identified study of the impact of non-penalized compulsory voting. We precisely estimate a large and positive effect of toothless compulsory voting on turnout. This suggests that policymakers aiming to bolster participation can do so with this gentler form of compulsory voting, which entails no punishment of abstainers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102951"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144313176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
With a little help from the crowd: Estimating election fraud with forensic methods 在群众的帮助下：用法医方法估计选举舞弊
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102943
Christoph Koenig
{"title":"With a little help from the crowd: Estimating election fraud with forensic methods","authors":"Christoph Koenig","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102943","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102943","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Election forensics are a widespread tool for diagnosing electoral manipulation out of statistical anomalies in publicly available election micro-data. Yet, in spite of their popularity, they are only rarely used to measure and compare variation in election fraud at the sub-national level. The typical challenges faced by researchers are the wide range of forensic indicators to choose from, the potential variation in manipulation methods across time and space and the difficulty in creating a measure of fraud intensity that is comparable across geographic units and elections. This paper outlines a procedure to overcome these issues by making use of directly observed instances of fraud and machine learning methods. I demonstrate the performance of this procedure for the case of post-2000 Russia and discuss advantages and pitfalls. The resulting estimates of fraud intensity are closely in line with quantitative and qualitative secondary data at the cross-sectional and time-series level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102943"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144306744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wrong place or wrong party? LGBTQ2S+ candidates and district competitiveness 地点错了还是派对错了？LGBTQ2S+候选人与地区竞争力
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102953
Elizabeth Baisley, Quinn M. Albaugh
{"title":"Wrong place or wrong party? LGBTQ2S+ candidates and district competitiveness","authors":"Elizabeth Baisley,&nbsp;Quinn M. Albaugh","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102953","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102953","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The sacrificial lambs thesis holds that internal processes lead parties to nominate candidates from marginalized groups in unwinnable districts. This thesis was first developed to explain women's underrepresentation, but it has since been applied to other groups. The case of LGBTQ2S+ candidates presents an opportunity to explore whether the distribution of candidates across parties can account for (some of) the sacrificial lambs pattern. Are LGBTQ2S+ candidates sacrificial lambs because they run in less winnable districts than their straight cisgender (cis) counterparts or because less competitive third parties are more likely to nominate them? We reconceptualize the sacrificial lambs pattern as a gap in district competitiveness. Conceptually, we see this gap as having two components: a <em>within-party component</em> (from differences in <em>where</em> parties nominate members of a marginalized group) and a <em>between-party component</em> (from differences in <em>which</em> parties nominate more members of a marginalized group). We illustrate how to decompose the gap using data on LGBTQ2S+ candidates in Canadian elections, 2015–2021. We construct probability-based measures of district competitiveness and then use Kitigawa-Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to calculate the within- and between-party components. We find large gaps in district competitiveness in 2019 and 2021, the majority of which is attributable to between-party inequalities. Nonetheless, a substantial portion of this inequality reflects within-party inequalities. Our results suggest that efforts to improve LGBTQ2S+ representation will need to address between-party inequalities in addition to the more traditional focus on within-party inequalities. Our approach could be used to study other groups in other contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102953"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of party appeals on age differences in voting 政党诉求对投票年龄差异的影响
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102942
Laura Serra
{"title":"The impact of party appeals on age differences in voting","authors":"Laura Serra","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102942","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102942","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Age is an increasingly significant driver of how citizens vote across established democracies. This paper contributes to the growing research in this area by assessing whether party appeals directed at younger voters have an impact on the growing age gap in party support. I test this in the context of the UK, one of the countries with the largest age gap in party support, with a survey experiment containing group appeals adapted from the Labour and Conservative 2019 electoral manifestos. These age-based appeals are both symbolic and substantive in nature, and cover both economic and cultural issues. Results show that appeals directed at the youth do not trigger a decrease in support from older voters. This is the case even for appeals containing young citizens’ cultural policy preferences. Moreover, while the Labour party has a clear advantage on youth support, the Conservative party is able to close this gap with proposals in line with the preferences of this cohort – especially around the issue of higher education funding.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102942"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144124234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Patriarchy in the Parties: Voters, parties and women’s electoral fortunes in the 2024 legislative election in Indonesia 政党中的父权制：2024年印尼立法选举中的选民、政党和女性选举命运
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102938
Jóhanna Kristín Birnir , Noory Okthariza , Khoirunnisa Nur Agustyati , Heroik M. Pratama
{"title":"The Patriarchy in the Parties: Voters, parties and women’s electoral fortunes in the 2024 legislative election in Indonesia","authors":"Jóhanna Kristín Birnir ,&nbsp;Noory Okthariza ,&nbsp;Khoirunnisa Nur Agustyati ,&nbsp;Heroik M. Pratama","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102938","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102938","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do voter and party gender biases differently affect the likelihood that female and male candidates are nominated to and elected from equivalent list positions in national legislative elections? This paper examines the interaction between list position, gender quotas, and voter and party biases in shaping women’s electoral success in Indonesia’s 2024 legislative election. Using new data on nearly 10K candidates, while voter penalties against female candidates are important, our analysis finds that parties can effectively counteract these biases through strong list placement. However, we also find that parties nominate far fewer women than men and appear to apply different selection criteria when placing female candidates in lower list positions compared to their male counterparts. Additionally, our results underscore the critical role of party system fragmentation and candidate quotas in shaping women’s representation. We also highlight how seemingly minor adjustments to quota calculations can impact electoral competition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102938"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144068372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do second-order elections produce second-order governments? How national and regional factors influence the composition of regional governments
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102941
Alexander Verdoes
{"title":"Do second-order elections produce second-order governments? How national and regional factors influence the composition of regional governments","authors":"Alexander Verdoes","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102941","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102941","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Regional elections are broadly considered second-order elections, where voters tend to punish parties in national government and favor opposition, small, and new parties instead. Regional government formations are also influenced by national factors, as coalitions are more likely to form if a regional government is congruent with the national government. Nevertheless, how national and regional factors interact, and impact regional government compositions has received little attention. This article argues that national incumbency is both an asset and a liability for a party seeking to enter regional government. However, the extent to which a party's national government status matters for entering regional government is conditional upon the political system, the timing of a regional election relative to the national election, and the level of regional authority.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102941"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143943768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An election forecasting model for subnational elections 地方选举预测模型
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102939
Lukas F. Stoetzer , Cornelius Erfort , Hannah Rajski , Thomas Gschwend , Simon Munzert , Elias Koch
{"title":"An election forecasting model for subnational elections","authors":"Lukas F. Stoetzer ,&nbsp;Cornelius Erfort ,&nbsp;Hannah Rajski ,&nbsp;Thomas Gschwend ,&nbsp;Simon Munzert ,&nbsp;Elias Koch","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102939","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102939","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While election forecasts predominantly focus on national contests, many democratic elections take place at the subnational level. Subnational elections pose unique challenges for traditional fundamentals forecasting models due to less available polling data and idiosyncratic subnational politics. In this article, we present and evaluate the performance of Bayesian forecasting models for German state elections from 1990 to 2024. Our forecasts demonstrate high accuracy at lead times of two days, two weeks, and two months, and offer valuable ex-ante predictions for three state elections held in September 2024. These findings underscore the potential for applying election forecasting models effectively to subnational elections.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102939"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143934976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wishful thinking in response to events: Evidence from the 2021 German federal election 对事件的一厢情愿：来自2021年德国联邦选举的证据
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102940
Matthew Barnfield , Joseph Phillips , Florian Stoeckel , Vittorio Mérola , Sabrina Stöckli , Benjamin Lyons , Jack Thompson , Paula Szewach , Jason Reifler
{"title":"Wishful thinking in response to events: Evidence from the 2021 German federal election","authors":"Matthew Barnfield ,&nbsp;Joseph Phillips ,&nbsp;Florian Stoeckel ,&nbsp;Vittorio Mérola ,&nbsp;Sabrina Stöckli ,&nbsp;Benjamin Lyons ,&nbsp;Jack Thompson ,&nbsp;Paula Szewach ,&nbsp;Jason Reifler","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102940","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102940","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When making uncertain judgments about the political future, people consistently see desired outcomes as more likely. But when major events reduce uncertainty about what is possible in the future, how do people's expectations respond? In a panel study conducted during the 2021 German federal election, we find that citizens' predictions of likely coalitions converge after the election takes place, but even after this convergence those expectations remain marked by significant partisan gaps. The election result substantially reduces uncertainty about coalition formation—decreasing, but far from eliminating, differences in expectations between groups with different preferences. Our findings provide a clear case of static wishful thinking (contemporaneous association between preferences and expectations) without dynamic wishful thinking (divergence over time in expectations in line with preferences), suggesting that citizens' expectations of the future, regardless of their prior commitments, respond accordingly to events, but wishful thinking persists even in contexts of dramatically reduced uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102940"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143916876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Countryside champions or urban allies? What rural and urban citizens want from elected representatives 乡村拥护者还是城市盟友？城乡居民对民选代表的要求是什么
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102937
Lawrence McKay , Christopher Claassen , Petar Bankov , Christopher Carman
{"title":"Countryside champions or urban allies? What rural and urban citizens want from elected representatives","authors":"Lawrence McKay ,&nbsp;Christopher Claassen ,&nbsp;Petar Bankov ,&nbsp;Christopher Carman","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102937","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102937","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rural-urban divide plays an increasingly clear role in many democracies. Theories suggest institutions and politicians are judged partially based on how people perceive them to represent their kinds of communities. However, the criteria they use for rural/urban representation, and the weight they give it in political choice, remain obscure. What do rural and urban citizens want from their elected representatives? Do rural voters prefer rural ‘champions’ as their representatives? Are urbanites equally drawn to ‘pro-urban’ politicians? We use a pre-registered candidate choice conjoint experiment in Britain with a large rural oversample (n = 3270), varying politicians' residential history, engagement with rural/urban interest groups, affective stance towards rural/urban areas, and advocacy on behalf of rural/urban areas beyond the constituency. Consistent with theory, ruralites generally place greater emphasis on place-based representation. They reward candidates with histories of rural residence (while urbanites do not value urban residence), and for advocating for similar areas outside the locality. They place greater value on politicians working with interest groups representing their area type. Ruralites are also more rewarding of positive in-group affect and unlike urbanites, do not <em>punish</em> candidates for negative, resentful affect about outgroup areas. These effects are pronounced among resentful ruralites, as they tend to favour candidates with an explicitly rural focus of representation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102937"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143883203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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