Electoral Studies最新文献

The myth of compensatory effects: How party organisation shapes women's representation in dual-candidacy mixed electoral systems 补偿效应的神话：政党组织如何在双候选人混合选举制度中塑造女性代表

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103057

Heinz Brandenburg , Maarja Lühiste

{"title":"The myth of compensatory effects: How party organisation shapes women's representation in dual-candidacy mixed electoral systems","authors":"Heinz Brandenburg , Maarja Lühiste","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103057","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103057","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Electoral systems are widely recognised as important institutional determinants explaining women's political representation. Mixed-member proportional (MMP) systems, for example, are expected to enhance women's representation by combining single-member districts with PR lists, with the latter compensating for barriers women traditionally face in constituency contests. This article challenges the underlying assumption that candidate selection in MMP's two tiers operates independently, arguing instead that decentralised candidate selection makes most MMP systems function more like pure single-member district (SMD) systems than proportional representation (PR) systems. Using Germany as a case study, and utilising a unique custom-built dataset spanning 13 election cycles from 1976 to 2025, we find that decentralised candidate selection creates strong linkages across both tiers. Constituency nomination appears as an almost necessary pre-condition to get elected via the list-PR tier, meaning that barriers to women's candidacy in single-member districts carry over also to the supposedly more favourable PR component. This interconnection undermines the compensatory logic of MMP design for women's representation. We find that local selectors in Germany's largely decentralised system remain reluctant to nominate women in rural areas, safe seats and right-wing parties, while prior female candidacy in the constituency increases women's chances to secure a nomination. The evidence thus suggests that where candidate selection remains decentralised, even mixed electoral system cannot overcome local party elites' resistance to female candidates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 103057"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do open lists increase turnout? Probably not, but they increase rates of voter error: New evidence from Spain 公开名单会增加投票率吗？也许不会，但他们增加了选民错误率：来自西班牙的新证据

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103060

Leonardo Carella

{"title":"Do open lists increase turnout? Probably not, but they increase rates of voter error: New evidence from Spain","authors":"Leonardo Carella","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103060","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article challenges the claim that open-list systems are beneficial for electoral participation, by reassessing and extending the analysis in a notable empirical paper that advances this argument. The paper (Carlos Sanz, “The effect of electoral systems on voter turnout: Evidence from a natural experiment”, <em>PSRM</em>, 2017) leverages a population-based discontinuity in Spanish municipal elections (1979–2011), where towns with fewer than 250 residents employ open lists whereas larger towns employ closed lists. Through a series of statistical tests and the inspection of alternative data sources, I show that the positive effect of open lists on turnout estimated in the paper is dubious, for two reasons: (1) <em>non-random missing data</em>, due to inconsistencies in how non-valid votes were recorded above and below the threshold, and (2) <em>compound treatment</em> issues, due to changes in list-length requirements at the threshold. I then proceed to show that, rather than improving turnout, the more complex open-list ballot actually hinders voters’ ability to express their preferences, by increasing the incidence of voter errors relative to closed lists (reflected in higher rates of ‘null’ voting). To support a causal interpretation of this relationship, I present evidence from the analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects, and show that a similar pattern obtains in Spanish general elections, where open and closed lists are used concurrently for the election of the country’s bicameral parliament. I conclude by discussing the implications of the analysis for implementing population-based regression discontinuities and evaluating electoral system effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 103060"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146189832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do voters hold the president’s party accountable for local economic conditions? 选民是否认为总统所在的政党对当地的经济状况负责？

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103058

B.K. Song

引用次数: 0

Just like me? Testing descriptive attributes as voting heuristics 就像我一样？测试描述性属性作为投票启发式

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103045

Leonie Rettig, Lukas Isermann

{"title":"Just like me? Testing descriptive attributes as voting heuristics","authors":"Leonie Rettig, Lukas Isermann","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103045","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103045","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The lack of candidate diversity and the descriptive under-representation of groups such as women and young people in parliaments is a recurring concern in both public and academic debates. While prior studies have examined whether voters prefer candidates who share their gender or age, findings remain mixed and are often based on experimental designs. Using conditional logit models and combined survey-candidate data from the 2021 German Federal Election, we assess whether voters considered gender and age similarities with district candidates when casting their votes. This election, shaped by heightened media focus on under-represented groups and public discourse around gender and age, offers a strong case for exploring group-based voting behavior. Despite this context, our results show no general effect of gender or age similarity on vote choice. Gender cues do not influence candidate preferences, even among women or left-leaning voters. While age similarity has no overall impact, younger voters on the left are more likely to support younger candidates, whereas their right-leaning counterparts favour older ones. These findings suggest that identity-based cues matter only for specific subgroups under certain conditions. Our study highlights the limits of affinity voting in information-rich settings compared to the stronger effects often found in experimental research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 103045"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145986728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Wishful thinking in mass–elite electoral expectations 大众精英对选举期望的一厢情愿

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103059

Philippe Mongrain , Anam Kuraishi , Karolin Soontjens , Stefaan Walgrave

{"title":"Wishful thinking in mass–elite electoral expectations","authors":"Philippe Mongrain , Anam Kuraishi , Karolin Soontjens , Stefaan Walgrave","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103059","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103059","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores politicians’ expectations of future election outcomes, the accuracy of these predictions, and the role of wishful thinking in shaping such electoral estimations. Before the 2024 regional elections in Belgium, local politicians were surveyed to gather their views on the likelihood of regional political parties winning or losing seats, as well as the probability of these parties being part of the next government coalition. To benchmark politicians’ predictions and the accuracy thereof, similar survey evidence was collected among citizens in a parallel survey. Our findings reveal that both politicians and citizens are strongly influenced in their electoral predictions by wishful thinking, often leading them to overestimate the likelihood of favourable outcomes for their preferred party. Interestingly, we found almost no difference in how partisan identities shaped expectations and the accuracy of forecasts between these two groups. This suggests that even politicians, whose roles often require them to be more strategically attuned to electoral dynamics, are just as susceptible to cognitive biases as the general public.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 103059"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146189831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does switching pay off? The impact of parliamentary party instability on individual electoral performance 换工作有回报吗？议会政党不稳定对个人选举表现的影响

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103037

Allan Sikk , Sona N. Golder , Raimondas Ibenskas , Paulina Sałek-Lipcean

引用次数: 0

Introduction to the Special Issue “The rural-urban divide in Europe: Assessing its impact on political attitudes and voting behavior” 特刊“欧洲的城乡差距：评估其对政治态度和投票行为的影响”导言

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103028

Pedro Riera , Sigrid Roßteutscher

引用次数: 0

Assessing the impact of internet voting on voter turnout in the 2024 Russian presidential elections 评估网络投票对2024年俄罗斯总统选举投票率的影响

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103008

Alena Teplyshova

{"title":"Assessing the impact of internet voting on voter turnout in the 2024 Russian presidential elections","authors":"Alena Teplyshova","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of internet voting (i-voting) on voter turnout in Russia's 2024 presidential election. While i-voting has been widely studied in democratic contexts, its effects in authoritarian regimes remain underexplored. To address this gap, the study combines a difference-in-differences design with pre-matching to estimate the causal impact of i-voting across Russian regions. The hypothesis is grounded in a theoretical framework that identifies how i-voting can serve authoritarian strategies of turnout management—through controlled mobilisation, reduced visibility of coercion, and potential for covert manipulation. Contrary to the initial expectation, the findings reveal that, while positive, the impact of i-voting on turnout is not statistically significant, with robustness checks confirming the reliability of these results. Rather than driving a significant rise in participation, i-voting may have played a more subtle, stabilising role in managing turnout, aligning with the regime's strategic goals targeting the regions with historically lower turnout. Additionally, the shifting of the same loyal voters from offline to the online platform and demobilisation of certain voter segments may have limited its impact on increasing turnout. These results open up new avenues for understanding how digital technologies are deployed in authoritarian regimes, not necessarily to expand participation but to ensure tighter control over electoral processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103008"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145528103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

All the “Missing” ladies: Attribution bias in candidate selection after electoral setbacks 所有“失踪”的女士：选举挫折后候选人选择中的归因偏见

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103032

Selcen Cakir , Elif Erbay , Konstantinos Matakos

{"title":"All the “Missing” ladies: Attribution bias in candidate selection after electoral setbacks","authors":"Selcen Cakir , Elif Erbay , Konstantinos Matakos","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How do parties update candidate lists after electoral setbacks, and what does this mean for women’s representation? We exploit Turkey’s 2015 back-to-back parliamentary elections as quasi-experimental leverage and implement a difference-in-differences design that compares the governing Justice and Development Party (JDP) to the Republican People’s Party (RPP), whose March 2015 primaries largely fixed the district-level gender composition of slates. Falling short of a single-party majority in June was followed by a roughly 40 % contraction in the JDP’s women candidates and a disproportionate downgrading at electable ranks, interrupting a decade-long upward trend. The contraction is concentrated in conservative strongholds. A rank-weighted decomposition shows that net removals, rather than simple demotions, account for most of the decline; changes outside electable ranks are smaller and imprecisely estimated. Event-time estimates indicate the shock produced a one-off adjustment that reverted by 2018. Taken together, the evidence is most consistent with a mix of statistical discrimination where seats are at stake and attribution bias that overshoots, illustrating how elite responses under compressed timelines can quickly erode representational gains in closed-list systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103032"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145747371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The rural-urban cleavage in US presidential elections: Stability and sudden change 美国总统选举中的城乡分裂：稳定与突然变化

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103019

Valentin Pautonnier , Ruth Dassonneville , Michael S. Lewis-Beck , Richard Nadeau

{"title":"The rural-urban cleavage in US presidential elections: Stability and sudden change","authors":"Valentin Pautonnier , Ruth Dassonneville , Michael S. Lewis-Beck , Richard Nadeau","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent elections in the United States are characterized by a strong urban-rural divide, with rural voters being more likely to vote for the Republican Party and Democratic support concentrated in large urban centers. While much attention has been given to the sources of Republican support among rural voters, less is known about how this divide has emerged over time. Using data from the American National Election Studies (ANES), the Cooperative Election Study (CES), and the General Social Survey (GSS), we trace longitudinal trends in the association between living in rural areas and voting in US presidential elections. Our results show that the rural-urban divide was stable for an extended period of time but suddenly became more pronounced in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Comparative analysis reveals that this cleavage now surpasses gender and income divisions in importance, though it remains weaker than race and religious cleavages. We also show that this sudden strengthening of the rural-urban divide is driven by both rural Democrats switching to the Republican Party and urban Republicans switching to supporting Democratic candidates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103019"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145690558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0