Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-02-04DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102906
Andrei Zhirnov , Jan Philipp Thomeczek , Michele Scotto Di Vettimo , Alberto López Ortega , André Krouwel , Lorenza Antonucci , Roberta Di Stefano , Norbert Kersting
{"title":"How congruent are populist parties with their constituencies? Evidence from the 2019 European Parliament Elections in Italy, the Netherlands, Germany and Sweden","authors":"Andrei Zhirnov , Jan Philipp Thomeczek , Michele Scotto Di Vettimo , Alberto López Ortega , André Krouwel , Lorenza Antonucci , Roberta Di Stefano , Norbert Kersting","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102906","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102906","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rise of populism in Europe has often been described as a response to representation deficits. Arguably, populist parties (1) contribute to the representation of underrepresented constituencies by taking stances that non-populist parties are too constrained to advocate and (2) make a promise of extreme responsiveness to those frustrated with the lack of representation. In this research note, we investigate whether populist parties are indeed closer to their voters in the policy space than non-populist parties and are more congruent with their constituencies than the other parties are with theirs. Using data from Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden, we find that populist parties are indeed often the best policy option for their voters, but the correspondence between their positions and those of their constituencies is on average as good or bad as that between other parties and their voters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102906"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143151453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102888
Nazita Lajevardi , Jan Zilinsky
{"title":"Explaining 2020 Trump support: The role of anti-Muslim, pro-police, and anti-BLM attitudes","authors":"Nazita Lajevardi , Jan Zilinsky","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102888","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102888","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For at least 75 years, social scientists have pointed to racial attitudes as a dominant force in American politics. But the relative positioning of outgroups can be dynamic, suggesting that attitudes toward one group might be predictive of vote choice in one electoral context, but not another. Here, we estimate which group attitudes in the U.S. were correlated with presidential vote choice from 2012–2020. Panel data at four time points during this period indicates that attitudes towards Muslims were the strongest predictor of Republican presidential support until 2019, but faded in substantive importance in 2020 when anti-BLM attitudes became highly prognostic. High-frequency weekly data from 2019-2020 pinpoints when this shift occurred: anti-Muslim prejudice shaped Trump approval from 2019 through May 2020. After the George Floyd murder, pro-police and anti-BLM attitudes immediately become the most important predictors of Trump approval, whilst the effect of anti-Muslim attitudes diminished.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102888"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143092065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102889
Alejandro Ecker , Thomas M. Meyer , Carolina Plescia
{"title":"Do voters prefer logrolling to compromise in parliamentary democracies?","authors":"Alejandro Ecker , Thomas M. Meyer , Carolina Plescia","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102889","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102889","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In countries ruled by coalition governments, government policy is the result of negotiations between parties with diverging policy positions. We study what type of deals voters are willing to accept in these negotiations: policy compromises on individual issues or logrolls where each party gets to keep its position on one issue while conceding on another one. Based on a pre-registered survey experiment conducted after the 2021 Dutch general election, we find no evidence that respondents prefer logroll deals over policy compromises <em>per se</em>. Yet, voters are more sensitive to their policy preferences when evaluating logroll compared to compromise deals. In additional analyses, we show that this logroll effect is more pronounced when the logroll allows parties to keep their positions on their respective core issues. Our results have wider implications for political representation and government formation processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102889"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143092069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102894
Sebastian Stier , Corinna Oschatz , Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg , Jürgen Maier , Alessandro Nai , Nora Kirkizh
{"title":"When do candidates “go negative”? A conjoint analysis to unpack the mechanisms of negative campaigning","authors":"Sebastian Stier , Corinna Oschatz , Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg , Jürgen Maier , Alessandro Nai , Nora Kirkizh","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102894","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102894","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Negative campaigning has become a prevalent campaign strategy not just in the U.S., but also in other established democracies. While negative campaigning has been a prominent focus of the academic literature, the state of knowledge is still mostly based on observational data, often artifacts of campaigning such as content analysis of press releases, campaign ads, or social media posts. Based on a pre-registered conjoint experiment embedded in surveys of more than 800 candidates running in German state elections, the paper aims to explain under what conditions candidates attack their opponents. Rational-choice considerations matter, as candidates are more likely to attack when they see a net gain in the strategy. However, the characteristics and behavior of the opponent also play an important role. Negative campaigning is more likely if the opponent is male, ideologically distant, and has attacked before. In contrast, the closeness of the race and the likelihood of retaliation have no influence on attack behavior. Furthermore, the decision to attack their opponent is largely independent of candidates’ own incumbency status, gender, or personality. By integrating relevant factors that were identified in the literature in one research design, the paper sheds light on the drivers of campaign negativity and points towards the role of further situational factors that are shaping candidates' behavior on the campaign trail. Beyond negative campaigning, this study demonstrates the value of embedding experimental designs in samples of political elites.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102894"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143135973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102880
Cecile Tobin , Ben Aronson , Sharanya Majumder , Hannah Tanenbaum , Ethan Weber , John M. Carey , Brian Fogarty , Brendan Nyhan , Jason Reifler
{"title":"Losing predicts perceptions that elections were decided by fraud, but margin of loss and candidate race do not","authors":"Cecile Tobin , Ben Aronson , Sharanya Majumder , Hannah Tanenbaum , Ethan Weber , John M. Carey , Brian Fogarty , Brendan Nyhan , Jason Reifler","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102880","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102880","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Which factors cause citizens to think that an election was determined by fraud? Fraud beliefs have been shown to be more common among supporters of losing candidates. In the current U.S. context, fraud beliefs are also higher among Republicans than Democrats. However, we know less about the roles of electoral margin and candidate race. Beliefs that candidates won due to fraud might be more likely in closely contested elections, where small shifts in vote share could be decisive, or when non-white candidates defeat white candidates given perceived associations between race and crime or corruption. We examine these questions with a unique survey in which a nationally representative sample (n <span><math><mo>=</mo></math></span> 2896) reported their beliefs about the legitimacy of a random subset of 2022 U.S. House election outcomes. Our results indicate that Republican participants are far more likely than are Democrats to believe that House election results were determined by fraud, and that the partisan gap is larger for contests the GOP candidate lost. However, we do not find convincing evidence that these perceptions were driven by the margin by which the losing candidate was defeated or the apparent race of the candidates. These results suggest that party is the dominant factor in perceptions of election legitimacy, trumping losing vote margin and candidate race.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102880"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143092066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102890
Seung Wook Ethan Yoo
{"title":"Explicit partisan candidate support and bureaucratic responsiveness in hyper-partisan environment: Evidence from a field experiment","authors":"Seung Wook Ethan Yoo","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102890","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102890","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous studies have analyzed public officials' responsiveness toward citizens based on citizens' racial and ethnic, gender, or religious identities. However, much less attention has been paid to whether a citizen's explicit partisan identification influences election officials' responsiveness. Therefore, this study investigates whether election officials discriminate against partisan identifying constituents when responding to election-related email inquiries using a nation level audit experiment. In doing so, email inquiries about voting information with varying experimental conditions are sent to election officials across the United States (n = 6606). I find a lower likelihood of response for email inquiries with explicit partisan identifying conditions compared to those without any explicit partisan identification. The results provide implications on how recent increase in burdens associated with election official duties, aided by extraordinarily high levels of affective polarization and negative partisanship in the United States, can undermine some American voters' general ability to freely and fairly participate in elections.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102890"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143092067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102893
Luigi Curini , Luca Pinto
{"title":"Spatial contagion and party competition on environmental issue salience","authors":"Luigi Curini , Luca Pinto","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102893","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102893","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the dynamics of party competition on issue salience, taking the environment as a case study. We integrate concepts from saliency theory, issue ownership, and the “riding-the-wave” approach with a novel concept: the spatial contagion effect. This effect posits that a party's emphasis on environmental issues spills over to rival parties, amplifying the riding-the-wave phenomenon. Employing spatial regression analysis of party manifestos and survey data, we demonstrate the existence of this contagion effect. Interestingly, the effect is moderated by the presence of green parties. When no green parties compete, the contagion effect strengthens the riding-the-wave phenomenon. However, the effect weakens when green parties are present, as they already “own” the environmental issue.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102893"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143092068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-01-31DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102895
James Breckwoldt
{"title":"Who cares about the culture war? Evidence from a vote choice conjoint experiment","authors":"James Breckwoldt","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102895","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102895","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite their recent prominence, it is unclear how electorally important new culture war topics (such as statues, LGBT+ representation in popular culture, diversity training, transgender athletes, curriculum diversity and university free speech) are for voters, particularly cross-pressured ones. To address this, this study conducts an original vote choice conjoint experiment in the United Kingdom to test the extent to which people base their vote on these new culture war issues when they are included in a policy platform alongside long-standing economic and non-economic issues. I find that culture war issues are consistently important for those with more conservative cultural beliefs, whilst those with right-traditionalist and, to a lesser extent, left-traditionalist values prioritize them when cross-pressured. These results highlight the political dynamics of contemporary culture wars and vote choice in multi-dimensional elections, as well as the value of studying political beliefs relative to each other.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102895"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143151451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-01-24DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102896
Ankita Barthwal, Francesca R. Jensenius
{"title":"Motivations for partisan attachment in the developing world","authors":"Ankita Barthwal, Francesca R. Jensenius","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102896","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102896","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In developing countries, partisanship is pervasive, but its motivations remain largely unexplored. Whereas non-programmatic party–voter linkages dominate the political discourse in these contexts, we posit that such linkages are probably not the sole motivating factor behind partisanship. Drawing on interviews and an original survey from India – a context rife with non-programmatic exchanges – we find that partisans generally attribute their loyalty to parties’ ideological positions and policy platforms. This finding is reinforced by a priming experiment in which respondents made to reflect on parties’ ideologies and policies were more likely to self-report as partisans. Priming non-programmatic party–voter linkages in the form of community-based favoritism produces no discernible effect. Exploring differences between those attributing their own partisan loyalty to more programmatic or more non-programmatic motivations, we find the former group to be more consistent in their voting patterns and more likely to report negative partisanship, though both groups express similar levels of affective partisan attachment. Our findings underscore the need for more nuanced theorizing of partisanship and its effects in the developing world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102896"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143151452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}