Electoral Studies最新文献

The impact of party appeals on age differences in voting 政党诉求对投票年龄差异的影响

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102942

Laura Serra

引用次数: 0

The Patriarchy in the Parties: Voters, parties and women’s electoral fortunes in the 2024 legislative election in Indonesia 政党中的父权制：2024年印尼立法选举中的选民、政党和女性选举命运

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102938

Jóhanna Kristín Birnir , Noory Okthariza , Khoirunnisa Nur Agustyati , Heroik M. Pratama

{"title":"The Patriarchy in the Parties: Voters, parties and women’s electoral fortunes in the 2024 legislative election in Indonesia","authors":"Jóhanna Kristín Birnir , Noory Okthariza , Khoirunnisa Nur Agustyati , Heroik M. Pratama","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102938","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102938","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do voter and party gender biases differently affect the likelihood that female and male candidates are nominated to and elected from equivalent list positions in national legislative elections? This paper examines the interaction between list position, gender quotas, and voter and party biases in shaping women’s electoral success in Indonesia’s 2024 legislative election. Using new data on nearly 10K candidates, while voter penalties against female candidates are important, our analysis finds that parties can effectively counteract these biases through strong list placement. However, we also find that parties nominate far fewer women than men and appear to apply different selection criteria when placing female candidates in lower list positions compared to their male counterparts. Additionally, our results underscore the critical role of party system fragmentation and candidate quotas in shaping women’s representation. We also highlight how seemingly minor adjustments to quota calculations can impact electoral competition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102938"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144068372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do second-order elections produce second-order governments? How national and regional factors influence the composition of regional governments

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102941

Alexander Verdoes

引用次数: 0

An election forecasting model for subnational elections 地方选举预测模型

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102939

Lukas F. Stoetzer , Cornelius Erfort , Hannah Rajski , Thomas Gschwend , Simon Munzert , Elias Koch

引用次数: 0

Wishful thinking in response to events: Evidence from the 2021 German federal election 对事件的一厢情愿：来自2021年德国联邦选举的证据

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102940

Matthew Barnfield , Joseph Phillips , Florian Stoeckel , Vittorio Mérola , Sabrina Stöckli , Benjamin Lyons , Jack Thompson , Paula Szewach , Jason Reifler

{"title":"Wishful thinking in response to events: Evidence from the 2021 German federal election","authors":"Matthew Barnfield , Joseph Phillips , Florian Stoeckel , Vittorio Mérola , Sabrina Stöckli , Benjamin Lyons , Jack Thompson , Paula Szewach , Jason Reifler","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102940","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102940","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When making uncertain judgments about the political future, people consistently see desired outcomes as more likely. But when major events reduce uncertainty about what is possible in the future, how do people's expectations respond? In a panel study conducted during the 2021 German federal election, we find that citizens' predictions of likely coalitions converge after the election takes place, but even after this convergence those expectations remain marked by significant partisan gaps. The election result substantially reduces uncertainty about coalition formation—decreasing, but far from eliminating, differences in expectations between groups with different preferences. Our findings provide a clear case of static wishful thinking (contemporaneous association between preferences and expectations) without dynamic wishful thinking (divergence over time in expectations in line with preferences), suggesting that citizens' expectations of the future, regardless of their prior commitments, respond accordingly to events, but wishful thinking persists even in contexts of dramatically reduced uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102940"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143916876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Countryside champions or urban allies? What rural and urban citizens want from elected representatives 乡村拥护者还是城市盟友？城乡居民对民选代表的要求是什么

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102937

Lawrence McKay , Christopher Claassen , Petar Bankov , Christopher Carman

{"title":"Countryside champions or urban allies? What rural and urban citizens want from elected representatives","authors":"Lawrence McKay , Christopher Claassen , Petar Bankov , Christopher Carman","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102937","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102937","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rural-urban divide plays an increasingly clear role in many democracies. Theories suggest institutions and politicians are judged partially based on how people perceive them to represent their kinds of communities. However, the criteria they use for rural/urban representation, and the weight they give it in political choice, remain obscure. What do rural and urban citizens want from their elected representatives? Do rural voters prefer rural ‘champions’ as their representatives? Are urbanites equally drawn to ‘pro-urban’ politicians? We use a pre-registered candidate choice conjoint experiment in Britain with a large rural oversample (n = 3270), varying politicians' residential history, engagement with rural/urban interest groups, affective stance towards rural/urban areas, and advocacy on behalf of rural/urban areas beyond the constituency. Consistent with theory, ruralites generally place greater emphasis on place-based representation. They reward candidates with histories of rural residence (while urbanites do not value urban residence), and for advocating for similar areas outside the locality. They place greater value on politicians working with interest groups representing their area type. Ruralites are also more rewarding of positive in-group affect and unlike urbanites, do not <em>punish</em> candidates for negative, resentful affect about outgroup areas. These effects are pronounced among resentful ruralites, as they tend to favour candidates with an explicitly rural focus of representation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102937"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143883203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Election-induced fiscal policy cycles in democratic and non-democratic emerging market and developing economies 民主和非民主的新兴市场和发展中经济体由选举引发的财政政策周期

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102936

Jakob de Haan , Franziska Ohnsorge , Shu Yu

{"title":"Election-induced fiscal policy cycles in democratic and non-democratic emerging market and developing economies","authors":"Jakob de Haan , Franziska Ohnsorge , Shu Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102936","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102936","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine a broad set of fiscal outcomes around elections for 104 emerging market and developing economies covering the years 1993–2022, probe for differences between democracies and non-democracies, and estimate the degree to which fiscal deteriorations are reversed after elections. We show three patterns. First, primary deficits rise statistically significantly during elections by 0.6 percentage points of GDP. Primary spending, especially the government wage bill, also rises while indirect tax revenues fall. Second, these deteriorations occur in democracies and non-democracies alike. Third, the deterioration in primary deficits is not reversed after elections, and the deterioration in primary spending is partially reversed after the election, mainly through cuts in capital spending. This pattern, which holds for democracies and non-democracies, implies that deficits in emerging market and developing economies ratchet up over the course of several election cycles. Finally, we find that strong checks and balances, fiscal rules, and the presence of an IMF program partly mitigate the impact of elections on fiscal positions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102936"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143867822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluating nonresponse and non-sampling error trends in election studies 评估选举研究中的非响应和非抽样误差趋势

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102934

Hafsteinn Einarsson, Agnar Freyr Helgason

{"title":"Evaluating nonresponse and non-sampling error trends in election studies","authors":"Hafsteinn Einarsson, Agnar Freyr Helgason","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102934","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102934","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Political scientists rely on election studies as high-quality sources of data on voting behavior and attitudes. However, despite a cross-national trend of declining response rates over time and a lively debate regarding the accuracy of pre-election polls, data quality in election studies is an underdiscussed topic. In this paper, we address this research gap by focusing on trends in survey participation and non-sampling errors over time using data from the Icelandic National Election Study over a period spanning nearly four decades (1983–2021). We find that response rates have halved in the period under study (from around 70 % to 36 %), caused by increasing noncontact rates. Focusing on sample composition, we find that response rates have declined more among young adults and those without university degrees than other sample subgroups. To assess non-sampling error trends, we propose a simple metric based on the mean average error (MAE), which accounts for the number of parties and the sample size. Surprisingly, we find that despite decreasing response rates, the MAE has not increased, and for most elections, we cannot rule out sampling error alone as the explanation for the MAE. Finally, we show that adjustment weights have small and inconsistent effects on the MAE, suggesting that the auxiliary information available in the Icelandic context lacks the strong correlations needed to reduce error in the estimation of vote choice. We conclude with a discussion of these findings, their implications, and some guidance for practitioners seeking to evaluate data quality that can inform changes to the design of election studies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102934"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143829507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game? 政治经济模型与英国大选预测：终局？

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102933

John Kenny , Michael S. Lewis-Beck

引用次数: 0

Voting under debtor distress 债务人困境下投票

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102929

Jakub Grossmann , Štěpán Jurajda

引用次数: 0