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Do local leaders prioritize the poor: Identifying the distributive preference of village politicians in India 地方领导人是否优先考虑穷人:识别印度乡村政治家的分配偏好
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102743
Mark Schneider , Neelanjan Sircar
{"title":"Do local leaders prioritize the poor: Identifying the distributive preference of village politicians in India","authors":"Mark Schneider ,&nbsp;Neelanjan Sircar","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102743","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102743","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate the distributive preferences of elected leaders in local democracies, who are tasked with ”everyday assistance” and personally know their constituents. In this setting, economic distribution is driven more by leader preferences and less by efficiency concerns, as in the lower information setting typically described in the literature. In local democracy, we argue voters can explicitly select leaders who prefer to distribute to a broad group of supporters, who further conform to norms of targeting the most needy among supporters. In this article, we develop a novel behavioral measure that isolates leaders’ distributive preferences from direct electoral benefit, which we implement in villages across the Indian state of Rajasthan. We find elected leaders prefer to distribute 94% more to supporters and 17% more to supporters one standard deviation below the mean village wealth. This suggests local elections are consistent with significant distribution to the poor, albeit with political biases.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102743"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140122322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding vote buying in Nepali elections 了解尼泊尔选举中的买票行为
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102766
Jeevan Baniya , Stephen A. Meserve , Daniel Pemstein , Brigitte Seim
{"title":"Understanding vote buying in Nepali elections","authors":"Jeevan Baniya ,&nbsp;Stephen A. Meserve ,&nbsp;Daniel Pemstein ,&nbsp;Brigitte Seim","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102766","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102766","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A growing literature posits that vote buying dynamics depend on characteristics of the context and its voters. We explore vote buying in Nepal using a multi-methods approach combining survey experiments, semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions. We find that vote buying in Nepal aligns somewhat with other contexts. A list experiment reveals approximately 25% of Nepali voters receive a voter-buying offer and, in an unmonitored but contingent exchange, the same percentage vote for the offeror candidate or party. Cash and other private goods are the most common offers. In contrast to findings from other contexts, however, voter education level is the strongest predictor of refraining from vote buying in Nepal, and wealth is not a significant predictor. Our list experiment also finds that, in Nepal, clientelism appears to be a socially undesirable activity. Overall, our results support the increasingly dominant viewpoint that vote buying is highly context dependent.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102766"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140052287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Denigrating democracy: How electoral competition fuels xenophobia in Lebanon 诋毁民主:选举竞争如何助长黎巴嫩的仇外心理
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102770
Sam Selsky
{"title":"Denigrating democracy: How electoral competition fuels xenophobia in Lebanon","authors":"Sam Selsky","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102770","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102770","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>When do electoral incentives encourage candidates to target immigrants with discriminatory rhetoric? I address this question through a novel dataset of refugee-related tweets by elites in Lebanon, the country hosting the most Syrian refugees per capita globally. I find that Lebanon’s 2018 election, the first under a new set of electoral rules, precipitated an increase in anti-migrant tweets. However, the electoral campaign did not affect candidates’ rhetoric uniformly, but rather fueled xenophobic discourses specifically among Christian candidates, whose voter base is particularly hostile towards refugees, and especially among Christians facing the fiercest electoral competition. This paper makes three contributions: theoretically, it elucidates the consequences of partisan competition for xenophobia; conceptually, it relaxes an assumption common in the ethnic institutions literature that ethnic composition is fixed over time; and empirically, it demonstrates how social media data can be harnessed for expanding a nascent literature on migration politics in the Global South.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102770"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140062372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Age gaps in political representation: Comparing local and national elections 政治代表的年龄差距:比较地方选举和全国选举
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102763
Josefina Sipinen , Jana Belschner , Brittany Anlar
{"title":"Age gaps in political representation: Comparing local and national elections","authors":"Josefina Sipinen ,&nbsp;Jana Belschner ,&nbsp;Brittany Anlar","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102763","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102763","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This article compares the relationship between candidate age and political selection on the local and national level of politics. On which level are young candidates more likely to be selected by parties and elected by voters? Using register data from Finland, covering over 100,000 candidates from 2011 to 2021, we test two competing hypotheses: the “stepping stone” hypothesis relating to the traditional pipeline theory of political representation, and the “parachute” hypothesis, which represents a non-hierarchical approach to political careers. Our findings provide slightly more support for the latter hypothesis. While national elections are more competitive, comparatively more young candidates are running in these contests. We also find that the electoral disadvantage for young candidates is slightly larger in municipal than in national elections. Based on election survey data, we show that is this due to age affinity effects within the electorate, where senior voters’ candidate preferences have greater weight.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102763"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000210/pdfft?md5=b393ef27659caadcf5b51b81e981f4c0&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000210-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139999860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effects of relaxing fiscal rules on Political Budget Cycle: A difference-in-discontinuities analysis on Italian municipalities 放宽财政规则对政治预算周期的影响:意大利市政当局的差异-不连续性分析
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102761
Pasquale Giacobbe , Patrizia Ordine , Giuseppe Rose
{"title":"The effects of relaxing fiscal rules on Political Budget Cycle: A difference-in-discontinuities analysis on Italian municipalities","authors":"Pasquale Giacobbe ,&nbsp;Patrizia Ordine ,&nbsp;Giuseppe Rose","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102761","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate whether the presence of fiscal rules might limit the insurgence of a Political Budget Cycle (PBC) in investment spending at municipal level. Data based on the balance sheets of Italian municipalities are explored for the period 1999–2012. We investigate the effect of the Domestic Stability Pact (DSP) and rely on the fact that, since 2001, this tax rule has not been binding for municipalities with under 5,000 inhabitants. Our main contribution consists of exploiting this quasi-experimental setting by means of a difference-in-discontinuities estimation strategy in order to obtain unbiased estimates. In comparison with existing results, our study makes three observations. Firstly, the easing of fiscal rules generates an increase in capital expenditure only in the year immediately before elections. Secondly, this increase only arises for those investments which produce immediately-visible effects. Finally, the size of the electoral cycle shows a 136 percent increase in these investments which is more than five times larger than that reported in the literature.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102761"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139993211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does Brown beat Biesiada? Name fluency and electoral success 布朗能否击败比西亚达?姓名流利度与选举成功
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102759
Jacob Harris
{"title":"Does Brown beat Biesiada? Name fluency and electoral success","authors":"Jacob Harris","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102759","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102759","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Of the myriad cues voters rely on to evaluate political candidates, only one cue is available to all voters in all candidate-based elections — the candidates’ names. Drawing upon multiple decades of election data in local and congressional elections in the United States, I examine the relationship between the processing fluency (pronounceability and commonality) of political candidates’ names and vote share. I observe a strong, positive relationship for name pronounceability and more ambiguous results for name commonality. A one-standard deviation increase in pronounceability is associated with an increased vote share of 0.8 percentage points in congressional general elections, 1.4 percentage points in congressional primary elections, and 0.29 percentage points in local elections. Despite some sensitivity to how fluency is conceptualized, these findings suggest that the phonological characteristics of candidates’ names are consequential heuristics that voters use to evaluate candidates. Future research should seek to unpack the causal processes underlying these results by disentangling the racial and ethnic cues embedded in names.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102759"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139985629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Brands that bind: How party brands constrain blurred electoral appeals 有约束力的品牌:政党品牌如何制约模糊的选举诉求
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102760
Jacob R. Gunderson
{"title":"Brands that bind: How party brands constrain blurred electoral appeals","authors":"Jacob R. Gunderson","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102760","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102760","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Uncertainty is ubiquitous in elections, and candidates and parties often intentionally create uncertainty to benefit themselves. However, there is no consensus in existing research on how parties balance the trade-off between distinction and broad appeal without alienating their supporters. This paper proposes a novel theory that a party's brand structures when strategies that blur or obfuscate a party or candidate's position are effective. In particular, I argue voters respond negatively to appeals that signal brand deviation from co-partisans on issues that are central to their party's brand. Outside of the brand, the trade-offs between clarity and ambivalence will be weaker. I test these expectations in two survey experiments on a quota sample of the United States population. I find that the efficacy of blurred electoral varies by the brand centrality of an issue, the blurring strategy deployed, and the co- or out-partisan status of the receiver. These findings have implications for our understanding of how parties can navigate the costs and benefits of clear brands and blurred appeals in contemporary party competition.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102760"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000180/pdfft?md5=7bef266f831c86febe0915ca6832ab18&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000180-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139942576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Coming of voting age. Evidence from a natural experiment on the effects of electoral eligibility 达到投票年龄。选举资格影响的自然实验证据
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102751
Arndt Leininger , Armin Schäfer , Thorsten Faas , Sigrid Roßteutscher
{"title":"Coming of voting age. Evidence from a natural experiment on the effects of electoral eligibility","authors":"Arndt Leininger ,&nbsp;Armin Schäfer ,&nbsp;Thorsten Faas ,&nbsp;Sigrid Roßteutscher","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102751","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102751","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In recent years, several jurisdictions have lowered the voting age, with many more discussing it. Sceptics question whether young people are ready to vote, while supporters argue that allowing them to vote would increase their specific engagement with politics. To test the latter argument, we use a series of register-based surveys of over 10,000 German adolescents. Knowing the exact birthdates of our respondents, we estimate the causal effect of eligibility on their information-seeking behaviour in a regression discontinuity design. While eligible and non-eligible respondents do not differ in their fundamental political dispositions, those allowed to vote are more likely to discuss politics with their family and friends and to use a voting advice application. This effect appears to be stronger for voting age 16 than for 18. The right to vote changes behaviour. Therefore, we cannot conclude from the behaviour of ineligible citizens that they are unfit to vote.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102751"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026137942400009X/pdfft?md5=a3bee8dcb2f4c141d2885e7c678c395b&pid=1-s2.0-S026137942400009X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139935361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do green parties in government benefit from natural catastrophes? How wildfires are linked to voting 政府中的绿党是否从自然灾害中获益?野火如何与投票挂钩
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102749
Anton Kronborg , Frederik Hedegaard , Isak Klindt , Clara Vandeweerdt
{"title":"Do green parties in government benefit from natural catastrophes? How wildfires are linked to voting","authors":"Anton Kronborg ,&nbsp;Frederik Hedegaard ,&nbsp;Isak Klindt ,&nbsp;Clara Vandeweerdt","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102749","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102749","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigates whether wildfires are linked to increases in vote share for a green party in government. We argue that natural disasters move climate change action up on voters’ agendas, consequently affecting electoral behavior. Making use of the impact of an intense wildfire season in Sweden in 2018, we analyze changes in propensity to vote for a green governing party after experiencing wildfires in the election year. The Green party’s vote share is significantly larger than expected in affected municipalities compared to unaffected municipalities, with an overall effect size of about 1 percentage point in the national election and 1.2 percentage points in the local election. These effect sizes are substantial given typical green party vote shares. Meanwhile, the incumbent Social Democratic party appears to have been electorally punished for the fires. The findings contribute to the literature on natural disasters and climate opinion, as well as on the impact of local conditions on electoral behavior.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102749"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000076/pdfft?md5=62bdd8b268d1c0f34b3a5975308412b7&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000076-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139748190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Too young to win? Exploring the sources of age-related electoral disadvantage 太年轻而无法获胜?探索与年龄有关的选举劣势的根源
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-02-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102748
Jana Belschner
{"title":"Too young to win? Exploring the sources of age-related electoral disadvantage","authors":"Jana Belschner","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102748","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102748","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Young people continue to be underrepresented in formal politics. Previous research indicates that being a non-middle-aged candidate negatively affects electoral success. What are the origins of this performance gap? This article explores three potential sources of age-related disadvantage: Party affiliation, individual resources, and direct party and voter support. Drawing on data from 21 OECD countries, I show, first, that many age-related disadvantages take a non-linear shape. Both young and senior candidates run for smaller, poorer, and more marginal parties. They spend significantly less money on their campaigns than middle-aged competitors, and young candidates furthermore lack political experience. Young and senior candidates are placed on lower list positions in party-centred electoral systems and receive fewer preference votes in candidate-centred systems. Thus, both parties and voters fail to effectively counter structural age-disadvantages. This article contributes to our understanding of the shape and origins of age-related electoral disadvantages and illustrates the multifaceted reasons for youth's continued political under-representation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102748"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000064/pdfft?md5=1284ff62a6db1daa6023bdceca580a8a&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000064-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139743388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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