Electoral Studies最新文献_第10页

Mode of candidacy, electoral prospects, and the ideological deviation of candidacy-seeking politicians from their party leadership 参选方式、选举前景以及寻求参选的政治家在意识形态上与党的领导的偏差

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102798

Marc Debus , Johannes Lattmann , Sarah Wagner

{"title":"Mode of candidacy, electoral prospects, and the ideological deviation of candidacy-seeking politicians from their party leadership","authors":"Marc Debus , Johannes Lattmann , Sarah Wagner","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102798","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102798","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Politicians who seek their parties' nomination as candidates for public office start communicating their ideological profile to the selectorate months before the party decides on who will run as candidates. However, some politicians tend to steer away from their party leadership, while others stick closer to the party line. We argue that not only the mode of candidacy but one's expected chances of winning the election during the candidate selection period are defining factors in understanding why some candidates deviate further from their party leadership position than others. We use novel data on the degree of intra-party competition among the main German parties in all 299 electoral districts and on the ideological positions of candidates, measured using their Twitter statements in the run-up to the 2021 Bundestag election, to evaluate our expectations. In line with existing studies, we find that candidates who seek only their party's nomination via lists deviate less from party leadership than candidates who seek nomination as a district candidate. In contrast to our expectations, candidates who seek their nomination in an electoral district do not deviate more ideologically from their party when they can expect to win the district seat on election day based on published polls during the candidate selection period.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102798"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000568/pdfft?md5=4a72cc15d90f6f04577266e39009f8c1&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000568-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141090161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Voting propensity and parental depression 投票倾向与父母抑郁

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102800

Luca Bernardi , Emma Bridger , Mikko Mattila

{"title":"Voting propensity and parental depression","authors":"Luca Bernardi , Emma Bridger , Mikko Mattila","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102800","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102800","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Among the most prevalent and costly of all illnesses worldwide, depression also has substantive consequences for democratic politics, not least because it is associated with lower voting propensity. One of the most reliable predictors of becoming depressed is a family history of depression, an intergenerational link thought to arise through multiple mechanisms that increase a person's cognitive, behavioural and affective disposition towards depression. We study if a person's voting propensity in adulthood is predicted by their parents' depressive symptomatology during early childhood and whether this is mediated by the likelihood of being depressed in adulthood. We analyse the 1970 British Cohort Study in which persons belonging to a same cohort have been systematically followed from early childhood to midlife. The results show that parents' symptoms of depression predict offspring's voting propensity, especially earlier in adulthood, although the effect is relatively small. Contrary to predictions, the effect is mostly direct.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102800"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000581/pdfft?md5=f4856d795869ce25cf12031d6d46f414&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000581-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141090162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do voters (dis)like dynastic politicians? Experimental evidence from Pakistan 选民（不）喜欢王朝政治家吗？巴基斯坦的实验证据

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102786

Sergio J. Ascencio, Rabia Malik

{"title":"Do voters (dis)like dynastic politicians? Experimental evidence from Pakistan","authors":"Sergio J. Ascencio, Rabia Malik","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102786","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102786","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>While an extensive comparative politics literature focuses on the mechanisms that facilitate the emergence and persistence of political dynasties, we know relatively little about voters’ views on them. A survey experiment in Pakistan, a country where dynasticism is common, allows us to study how voters perceive and evaluate politicians with dynastic ties. We find that dynastic politicians are perceived as lower quality and less supportive of universalistic policies than their non-dynastic peers. Additionally, respondents report a lower preference of voting for such candidates themselves, suggesting that the “dynastic electoral advantage” documented in previous research is elite-driven. Our findings suggest that voters also perceive non-dynastic candidates needing to be more qualified to overcome the higher entry barriers created by dynasticism. These results also have important implications for the quality of representation in many developing countries, where entrenched political families continue playing key roles in national and local politics.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102786"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000441/pdfft?md5=b9d78276814e9a8d85a81574e22e177b&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000441-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140879388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Electoral institutions and repression in dictatorships 独裁政权的选举机构和镇压

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102791

Chao-Yo Cheng , Yuree Noh

引用次数: 0

Loyalties and interests: How political motivations influence voters’ responses to scandals 忠诚与利益：政治动机如何影响选民对丑闻的反应

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-05-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102792

Alvaro J. Pereira Filho, Laura B. Stephenson, Mathieu Turgeon

{"title":"Loyalties and interests: How political motivations influence voters’ responses to scandals","authors":"Alvaro J. Pereira Filho, Laura B. Stephenson, Mathieu Turgeon","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102792","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102792","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Scandals have always been a highly salient problem in politics. In judging politicians for their misconduct, voters may arguably be biased – they may evaluate scandals based on individual motivations, such as partisanship and self-interested concerns. In this paper, we examine these two considerations in the case of two real-world corruption scandals involving a single incumbent government. In addition to testing for the effects of partisan motivations in authentic situations, we consider how scandals associated with policy goals interact with personal motivations, shaping the degree to which people penalize a scandalous government. Across two survey experiments that prime respondents about real-world corruption scandals, we manipulate question wording for some participants and measure their evaluations of a scandalous leader's performance. We find an effect for self-interested concerns when the benefits associated with the scandal are concentrated and tangible. Our findings suggest that voters hold public figures accountable for misbehaviour and that there are limits to partisan loyalties in political scandals.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102792"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140823942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The effect of combining a populist rhetoric into right-wing positions on candidates’ electoral support 将民粹主义言论与右翼立场相结合对候选人选举支持率的影响

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102787

Diogo Ferrari

{"title":"The effect of combining a populist rhetoric into right-wing positions on candidates’ electoral support","authors":"Diogo Ferrari","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102787","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102787","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The recent electoral success of right-wing populists in various democracies sparked a rich body of studies investigating the causes of populists’ mass support. These studies agree that populists’ “thick” policy positions, such as anti-immigration and social conservatism, partially explain their support, but there are mixed findings on whether populists’ “thin” rhetoric affects support for populists. This paper examines this problem by asking if combining a “thin” populism with different “thick” positions gives candidates any electoral advantage over adopting only the latter. Using an original conjoint experiment conducted in the US, it shows that populist leaders’ “thin” rhetoric alone does not affect their electoral support. However, when right-wing candidates combine “thin” populism with “thick” positions, the effect of combining these two stances on candidates’ ratings is substantially larger than adopting the same respective right-wing positions but not combining them with populism. This was found only among right-wing voters who hold populist attitudes, suggesting that populism can be electorally advantageous for right-wing candidates, but it does not lead voters to cross ideology lines because of populism.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102787"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140823943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Is unequal representation the consequence of different voting behavior across income groups? 代表权不平等是不同收入群体投票行为不同的结果吗？

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102790

Anna-Sophie Kurella , Nathalie Giger , Jan Rosset

{"title":"Is unequal representation the consequence of different voting behavior across income groups?","authors":"Anna-Sophie Kurella , Nathalie Giger , Jan Rosset","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102790","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102790","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Extant literature documents the unequal representation of the interests of low- and high-income groups in democracies. One potential explanation for this phenomenon is the electoral behavior of different groups of voters. If affluent citizens base their vote decisions more strongly on policy considerations, while the less affluent rely on forms of electoral support that are less strongly conditioned by policy or performance evaluations, this pattern could influence the ability and willingness of political elites to represent low-income citizens. We make use of the integrated CSES election data to study how, across a diverse set of countries, income levels affect the criteria voters rely on when voting: namely, proximity voting, valence considerations, and economic voting. Overall, our findings show no meaningful differences in voting criteria across income groups, nor consequences for party systems. These findings have important implications for the literature on unequal representation, as they rule out the common narrative that the affluent cast more sophisticated vote decisions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102790"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000489/pdfft?md5=bbfce0ae074720bf99cedce0bdb3ec6f&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000489-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140823938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Oppression of Catholics in Prussia does not explain spatial differences in support for the radical right in Germany. A critique of Haffert (2022) 普鲁士对天主教徒的压迫并不能解释德国激进右翼支持率的空间差异。对哈弗特（2022 年）的批评

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-04-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102789

Kai Arzheimer, Theresa Bernemann, Timo Sprang

{"title":"Oppression of Catholics in Prussia does not explain spatial differences in support for the radical right in Germany. A critique of Haffert (2022)","authors":"Kai Arzheimer, Theresa Bernemann, Timo Sprang","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102789","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102789","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A growing literature links contemporary far-right mobilization to the “legacies” of events in the distant past, but often, the effects are small, and their estimates appear to rely on problematic assumptions. We re-analyse Haffert's (2022) study, a key example of this strand of research. Haffert claims that historical political oppression of Catholics in Prussia moderates support for the radical right AfD party among Catholics in contemporary Germany. While the argument itself has intellectual merit, we identify some severe limitations in the empirical strategy. Retesting the study's cross-level interaction hypothesis using more suitable multi-level data and a more appropriate statistical model, we find a modest overall difference in AfD support between formerly Prussian and non-Prussian territories. However, this difference is unrelated to individual Catholic religion or to the contextual presence of Catholics. This contradicts the oppression hypothesis. Our study thus provides another counterpoint to the claim that historical events have strong and long-lasting effects on contemporary support for the radical right. We conclude that simpler explanations for variations in radical right support should be exhausted before resorting to history.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102789"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000477/pdfft?md5=8b0c75faf974eb845135c7c1e0f41c14&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000477-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140649270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Careerism and working-class decline: The role of party selectorates in explaining trends in descriptive (mis-)representation 职业主义与工人阶级的衰落：政党遴选在解释描述性（错误）代表性趋势中的作用

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102788

Lea Elsässer

{"title":"Careerism and working-class decline: The role of party selectorates in explaining trends in descriptive (mis-)representation","authors":"Lea Elsässer","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102788","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102788","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Recent decades have seen a growing underrepresentation of working-class legislators and the parallel rise of professionalized “career politicians”, especially in centre-left parties. While this changing class composition of parliaments has implications for representational inequality, we know little about its reasons. I focus on the candidate nomination processes in the German Social Democratic Party to understand the priorities and practices of party selectors. Drawing on interview data with key actors in the nomination processes for the 2021 federal election, I show that the representation of marginalized groups becomes more important, but class representation is excluded from party debates. Although many selectors share the view that the candidates’ narrowing class backgrounds impede the representation of lower-class constituents, they see the reasons for this development mainly in individual obstacles beyond their control. Thus, while the nomination procedures disadvantage working-class people, they do so in a more complex way than previous studies suggest.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102788"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000465/pdfft?md5=d6b57bd9d7077e12e3405e269b0d353f&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000465-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140646806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does electoral behavior change after a protest cycle? Evidence from Chile and Bolivia 抗议周期后选举行为会改变吗？来自智利和玻利维亚的证据

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-04-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102777

Francisca Castro , Renata Retamal

{"title":"Does electoral behavior change after a protest cycle? Evidence from Chile and Bolivia","authors":"Francisca Castro , Renata Retamal","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102777","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102777","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Can protests produce changes in electoral behavior? In this paper, we examine variations in voter turnout and electoral preferences at the local level after a protest cycle. Using data on protest occurrence during the 2019 social mobilizations in Chile and Bolivia and a difference-in-differences design, we assess the impact that street demonstrations had on voting behavior in the elections that took place the following year. We found that turnout was higher in municipalities that had protests, while the incumbent vote was lower. We argue that the effect on turnout is explained by the surge in political efficacy that emerged from the protests. Furthermore, we suggest that the protests enabled more effective blame attribution and heightened the salience of political issues, leading to changes in voter preferences. These results demonstrate the effect of protests on electoral dynamics, highlighting their role not only in mobilizing voters but also in shaping electoral preferences.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102777"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000350/pdfft?md5=a749bc11a0da81fee1a26c50af32fde2&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000350-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140558496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0