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Moving the electoral goalposts: State and local strategies of electoral intervention in the U.S. 移动选举标杆：美国州和地方的选举干预战略
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102771
Galen Sheely
{"title":"Moving the electoral goalposts: State and local strategies of electoral intervention in the U.S.","authors":"Galen Sheely","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102771","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102771","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Central to the partisan divide in American politics is disagreement over the fundamental legitimacy of American elections. Due to the decentralized nature of election administration in the US, these disagreements have led to a complex web of heterogeneous electoral institutions. Scholars have made impressive progress on untangling the effects of these different institutions — unfortunately, less is known about the sources of adoption of such proposals. Using time-series cross-sectional data on the adoption of various electoral policies by state governments from 2001–2018, I examine the role of politics and identity in shaping the types of electoral interventions adopted by state legislatures during an important period of increasing politicization of such interventions. Applying dynamic panel models and constructing a novel measure of the concentration of Black population within competitive congressional districts, I find that the effects of race, competition, and ideology on electoral interventions differ across both partisan lines and issue areas.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102771"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140163380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The electoral consequences of taxation in OECD countries 经合组织国家税收对选举的影响
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102774
Leo Ahrens , Frank Bandau
{"title":"The electoral consequences of taxation in OECD countries","authors":"Leo Ahrens ,&nbsp;Frank Bandau","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102774","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102774","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Researchers, politicians, and pundits commonly expect that voters retrospectively punish and reward government parties for tax policies, but there is surprisingly little cross-country evidence that backs this claim. This study provides comprehensive evidence from 30 OECD countries, 1970–2020. It analyzes the electoral fates of government parties that increased or cut taxes on personal incomes and consumption. Our findings confirm the prevalence of electoral consequences, but these depend on the type and direction of tax change. Government parties lose votes when they increase personal income taxes while there is only marginal evidence suggesting electoral reward for income tax increases and electoral consequences after value-added tax changes. The findings also indicate the distributive effects of reforms to matter. The most pronounced consequences arise when governments raise income taxes on the poor. The moderating role of conditional factors such as government partisanship and fiscal pressure are explored, but no consensus emerges from the findings.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102774"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000325/pdfft?md5=5b061e2ede7409b8356a7c33181dd815&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000325-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140145251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can political parties narrow the intra-party winner-loser gap? An experimental test of the moderating impact of strategic communication 政党能否缩小党内输赢差距？战略传播的调节作用实验测试
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-03-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102769
Leen Lingier
{"title":"Can political parties narrow the intra-party winner-loser gap? An experimental test of the moderating impact of strategic communication","authors":"Leen Lingier","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102769","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102769","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Recent empirical studies show that winning or losing an intra-party decision affects party members' attitudes and behavior concerning their party. This paper builds on these findings and examines how political parties can narrow this intra-party winner-loser gap. More specifically, it argues that the gap in attitudes and behavior of party members is influenced by how the outcome of a decision is justified. A survey experiment conducted among two Flemish parties examines the effect of winning or losing the decision of government participation and the moderating impact of focusing on a specific set of a party's goals and negative references to other parties. Results show a negative effect of focusing on a specific set of a party's goals on the level of decision acceptance but this effect does not spill over to other potential attitudinal or intentional behavioral reactions including party and membership satisfaction, support for the decision-making process, activity within the party, leaving the party, and casting a deviant vote. In addition, no moderating impact is found for negative references to other parties.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102769"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140138802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Time to death explains the chronological decline of voter turnout among the older population 死亡时间解释了老年人投票率按时间顺序下降的原因
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102775
Hannu Lahtinen , Pekka Martikainen
{"title":"Time to death explains the chronological decline of voter turnout among the older population","authors":"Hannu Lahtinen ,&nbsp;Pekka Martikainen","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102775","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102775","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Age is possibly the strongest known individual-level socio-demographic determinant of participation in elections. Despite its substantial influence in shaping electoral outcomes, evidence-based understanding of the steep decline in turnout at older ages is scarce. We suggest that time-related proximity to death and the associated decline in cognitive and physical functioning may explain this relationship. With full population data on the participation of the 65+ year-old electorate in the 1999 parliamentary elections in Finland linked to a more than 21-year mortality follow-up, we demonstrate that the remaining lifetime is a more powerful predictor of voting than age, often by an order of magnitude. These results offer a novel theoretical principle into understanding the fundamental age-related decline in electoral participation at older ages: It is not the time from the cradle, but the time to the grave, that counts more.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102775"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000337/pdfft?md5=834c512f81ff030dacebfe6b2c067fc2&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000337-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140133884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Place-based identities and cleavage formation in the knowledge society 知识社会中基于地域的身份认同和裂痕的形成
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102768
Delia Zollinger
{"title":"Place-based identities and cleavage formation in the knowledge society","authors":"Delia Zollinger","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102768","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102768","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Electoral divides mobilized by the far right and the new left typically have an important spatial component. An urban-rural cleavage (originally theorized by Lipset and Rokkan) seems to have re-surfaced. This paper argues that a cleavage perspective on spatial political divides remains insightful but that the urban-rural cleavage needs to be re-conceptualized for the knowledge society era. Building on cleavage theory and using novel Swiss survey data, the study shows that spatial divides today can be understood as conflicts that are largely sectoral and educational at their core (rooted in the knowledge-based economy). However, these divides may become politically mobilized and perceived through a lens of place. Categories like ‘urban/rural’ can structure people's mental maps of society, even when they inaccurately capture political conflicts' structural and geographical underpinnings.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102768"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026137942400026X/pdfft?md5=fe07008c2859bd52774ae118ca232da0&pid=1-s2.0-S026137942400026X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140122323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Anti-immigration party success abroad and voter polarization at home 反移民政党在国外的成功与国内选民的两极分化
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102762
Tobias Böhmelt, Lawrence Ezrow, Roi Zur
{"title":"Anti-immigration party success abroad and voter polarization at home","authors":"Tobias Böhmelt,&nbsp;Lawrence Ezrow,&nbsp;Roi Zur","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102762","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102762","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>If anti-immigration parties perform well in national elections, the media also in other countries will cover their success. This initiates a process of cross-national influence, which we argue polarizes public opinion abroad. This article examines the case of migration attitudes and how they are shaped by national election outcomes in other countries. We analyze data from the European Social Survey (ESS), and individual-level data from the Austrian National Election Study (AUTNES) in the context of the 2017 federal election in Germany. The combined findings from these analyses support our argument: citizens' polarization in one country is influenced by foreign anti-immigration parties’ electoral success. Our research holds direct implications for the understanding of public attitudes toward migration, how public opinion is formed, political polarization, and cross-country political diffusion processes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102762"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140113240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do at-large elections reduce black representation? A new baseline for county legislatures 地方选举会减少黑人代表人数吗？县级立法机构的新基线
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102750
Jason Douglas Todd , Curtis Bram , Arvind Krishnamurthy
{"title":"Do at-large elections reduce black representation? A new baseline for county legislatures","authors":"Jason Douglas Todd ,&nbsp;Curtis Bram ,&nbsp;Arvind Krishnamurthy","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102750","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102750","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Much work has shown that, at all levels, Black citizens tend to be descriptively underrepresented in government. We take up the question of Black descriptive representation at the level of the county legislature, gathering data on the composition of North Carolina’s 100 county commissions. We propose an alternative measure of descriptive representation, termed “seats above expectation”, and apply a counterfactual simulation approach to gauge the effects of at-large and ward-based elections. We find that Black citizens are underrepresented statewide: there are four fewer Black county commissioners than we would expect, based on the current county board sizes, demographics, and institutional arrangements. However, we find that universal implementation of ward-based elections would increase the statewide total of Black county commissioners by 20 in expectation, a 17% increase over the baseline. Because our methodological approach does not require a natural experiment or policy change, scholars can estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) of ward-based elections on minority descriptive representation across a wider array of locales.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102750"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140122324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do local leaders prioritize the poor: Identifying the distributive preference of village politicians in India 地方领导人是否优先考虑穷人：识别印度乡村政治家的分配偏好
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102743
Mark Schneider , Neelanjan Sircar
{"title":"Do local leaders prioritize the poor: Identifying the distributive preference of village politicians in India","authors":"Mark Schneider ,&nbsp;Neelanjan Sircar","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102743","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102743","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate the distributive preferences of elected leaders in local democracies, who are tasked with ”everyday assistance” and personally know their constituents. In this setting, economic distribution is driven more by leader preferences and less by efficiency concerns, as in the lower information setting typically described in the literature. In local democracy, we argue voters can explicitly select leaders who prefer to distribute to a broad group of supporters, who further conform to norms of targeting the most needy among supporters. In this article, we develop a novel behavioral measure that isolates leaders’ distributive preferences from direct electoral benefit, which we implement in villages across the Indian state of Rajasthan. We find elected leaders prefer to distribute 94% more to supporters and 17% more to supporters one standard deviation below the mean village wealth. This suggests local elections are consistent with significant distribution to the poor, albeit with political biases.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102743"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140122322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding vote buying in Nepali elections 了解尼泊尔选举中的买票行为
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102766
Jeevan Baniya , Stephen A. Meserve , Daniel Pemstein , Brigitte Seim
{"title":"Understanding vote buying in Nepali elections","authors":"Jeevan Baniya ,&nbsp;Stephen A. Meserve ,&nbsp;Daniel Pemstein ,&nbsp;Brigitte Seim","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102766","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102766","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A growing literature posits that vote buying dynamics depend on characteristics of the context and its voters. We explore vote buying in Nepal using a multi-methods approach combining survey experiments, semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions. We find that vote buying in Nepal aligns somewhat with other contexts. A list experiment reveals approximately 25% of Nepali voters receive a voter-buying offer and, in an unmonitored but contingent exchange, the same percentage vote for the offeror candidate or party. Cash and other private goods are the most common offers. In contrast to findings from other contexts, however, voter education level is the strongest predictor of refraining from vote buying in Nepal, and wealth is not a significant predictor. Our list experiment also finds that, in Nepal, clientelism appears to be a socially undesirable activity. Overall, our results support the increasingly dominant viewpoint that vote buying is highly context dependent.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102766"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140052287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Denigrating democracy: How electoral competition fuels xenophobia in Lebanon 诋毁民主：选举竞争如何助长黎巴嫩的仇外心理
IF 2.3 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102770
Sam Selsky
{"title":"Denigrating democracy: How electoral competition fuels xenophobia in Lebanon","authors":"Sam Selsky","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102770","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102770","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>When do electoral incentives encourage candidates to target immigrants with discriminatory rhetoric? I address this question through a novel dataset of refugee-related tweets by elites in Lebanon, the country hosting the most Syrian refugees per capita globally. I find that Lebanon’s 2018 election, the first under a new set of electoral rules, precipitated an increase in anti-migrant tweets. However, the electoral campaign did not affect candidates’ rhetoric uniformly, but rather fueled xenophobic discourses specifically among Christian candidates, whose voter base is particularly hostile towards refugees, and especially among Christians facing the fiercest electoral competition. This paper makes three contributions: theoretically, it elucidates the consequences of partisan competition for xenophobia; conceptually, it relaxes an assumption common in the ethnic institutions literature that ethnic composition is fixed over time; and empirically, it demonstrates how social media data can be harnessed for expanding a nascent literature on migration politics in the Global South.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 102770"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140062372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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