Electoral Studies最新文献_第10页

Election-induced fiscal policy cycles in democratic and non-democratic emerging market and developing economies 民主和非民主的新兴市场和发展中经济体由选举引发的财政政策周期

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102936

Jakob de Haan , Franziska Ohnsorge , Shu Yu

{"title":"Election-induced fiscal policy cycles in democratic and non-democratic emerging market and developing economies","authors":"Jakob de Haan , Franziska Ohnsorge , Shu Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102936","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102936","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine a broad set of fiscal outcomes around elections for 104 emerging market and developing economies covering the years 1993–2022, probe for differences between democracies and non-democracies, and estimate the degree to which fiscal deteriorations are reversed after elections. We show three patterns. First, primary deficits rise statistically significantly during elections by 0.6 percentage points of GDP. Primary spending, especially the government wage bill, also rises while indirect tax revenues fall. Second, these deteriorations occur in democracies and non-democracies alike. Third, the deterioration in primary deficits is not reversed after elections, and the deterioration in primary spending is partially reversed after the election, mainly through cuts in capital spending. This pattern, which holds for democracies and non-democracies, implies that deficits in emerging market and developing economies ratchet up over the course of several election cycles. Finally, we find that strong checks and balances, fiscal rules, and the presence of an IMF program partly mitigate the impact of elections on fiscal positions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102936"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143867822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Electoral role models: The impact of gender quotas on voters in Taiwan 选举榜样：性别配额对台湾选民的影响

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102927

Matthew Yi-Hsiu Lee

引用次数: 0

Evaluating nonresponse and non-sampling error trends in election studies 评估选举研究中的非响应和非抽样误差趋势

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102934

Hafsteinn Einarsson, Agnar Freyr Helgason

{"title":"Evaluating nonresponse and non-sampling error trends in election studies","authors":"Hafsteinn Einarsson, Agnar Freyr Helgason","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102934","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102934","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Political scientists rely on election studies as high-quality sources of data on voting behavior and attitudes. However, despite a cross-national trend of declining response rates over time and a lively debate regarding the accuracy of pre-election polls, data quality in election studies is an underdiscussed topic. In this paper, we address this research gap by focusing on trends in survey participation and non-sampling errors over time using data from the Icelandic National Election Study over a period spanning nearly four decades (1983–2021). We find that response rates have halved in the period under study (from around 70 % to 36 %), caused by increasing noncontact rates. Focusing on sample composition, we find that response rates have declined more among young adults and those without university degrees than other sample subgroups. To assess non-sampling error trends, we propose a simple metric based on the mean average error (MAE), which accounts for the number of parties and the sample size. Surprisingly, we find that despite decreasing response rates, the MAE has not increased, and for most elections, we cannot rule out sampling error alone as the explanation for the MAE. Finally, we show that adjustment weights have small and inconsistent effects on the MAE, suggesting that the auxiliary information available in the Icelandic context lacks the strong correlations needed to reduce error in the estimation of vote choice. We conclude with a discussion of these findings, their implications, and some guidance for practitioners seeking to evaluate data quality that can inform changes to the design of election studies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102934"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143829507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How does rurality affect campaigning? 乡村是如何影响竞选的？

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102932

Stephanie Luke , Charles Pattie , Luke Temple , Katharine Dommett

{"title":"How does rurality affect campaigning?","authors":"Stephanie Luke , Charles Pattie , Luke Temple , Katharine Dommett","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102932","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102932","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the UK, some constituencies are physically small and take in parts of densely populated cities, while others span huge geographic areas and may contain islands or hard to reach communities. These size variations have been shown to have important implications for the nature of electoral representation, but their impact on election campaigning is less discussed. In this paper we examine this relationship, using a mixed method approach to consider whether and how rurality affects campaign activity. First, conducting interviews with Scottish National Party campaigners and elected representatives from rural and urban constituencies, we identify a number of perceived challenges associated with rural campaigning. We then evaluate some of these perceptions at recent British general elections using data from the BES panel survey and from constituency election results. The perception that campaigns in rural constituencies take more time and effort, cost more to undertake, have different contact styles and are less effective in rural than in urban areas seems to be partly true for campaign contacts, but less so for campaign spending (a wider measure of campaign effort) or for campaign effectiveness. Campaigners’ perceptions of a rural disadvantage does not appear to be fully borne out in reality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102932"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143748298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game? 政治经济模型与英国大选预测：终局？

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102933

John Kenny , Michael S. Lewis-Beck

引用次数: 0

To moderate, or not to moderate: Strategic domain sharing by congressional campaigns 缓和，还是不缓和：国会竞选的战略领域共享

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102907

Maggie Macdonald , Megan A. Brown , Joshua A. Tucker , Jonathan Nagler

引用次数: 0

Measuring rural and urban consciousness in Europe 衡量欧洲农村和城市意识

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102912

Christopher Claassen , Sascha Göbel , Antonia Lang , Kathrin Ackermann , Petar Bankov , Kevin Brookes , Bartolomeo Cappellina , Christopher Carman , Markus Freitag , Rubén García Del Horno , Enrique Hernández , Guillem Rico , Sigrid Rossteutscher , Richard Traunmüller , Michael Webb , Sonja Zmerli , Alina Zumbrunn

{"title":"Measuring rural and urban consciousness in Europe","authors":"Christopher Claassen , Sascha Göbel , Antonia Lang , Kathrin Ackermann , Petar Bankov , Kevin Brookes , Bartolomeo Cappellina , Christopher Carman , Markus Freitag , Rubén García Del Horno , Enrique Hernández , Guillem Rico , Sigrid Rossteutscher , Richard Traunmüller , Michael Webb , Sonja Zmerli , Alina Zumbrunn","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102912","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102912","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A rural consciousness, encompassing a rural identity and resentments directed at urban areas and the political elite, has emerged as a key explanation for the growing rural–urban political divides affecting many Western democracies. However, existing research has largely focused on the case of the United States; there is also no consensus as to the structure or dimensionality of rural (and urban) consciousness. In response, this paper develops and tests a battery of 16 items for measuring consciousness in five Western European countries: Britain, France, Germany, Spain, and Switzerland. We show that both rural and urban consciousness are best understood as comprising a dimension of identity and three dimensions of resentment pertaining to power, resources, and culture, in line with Cramer’s original conceptualization. We furthermore find that rural consciousness in Western Europe is generally associated with indicators of “left behind” status such as low income and lack of a university education and is also associated with identification with the political right. This shows how rural–urban identities and resentments can help illuminate the changing political landscape of Western Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102912"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143578725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Linking individual electoral performance to the composition of elected bodies: A counterfactual-based approach 将个人选举表现与选举机构的组成联系起来：一种反事实的方法

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102925

Oliver Huwyler

引用次数: 0

An election forecasting model for subnational elections 地方选举预测模型

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102939

Lukas F. Stoetzer , Cornelius Erfort , Hannah Rajski , Thomas Gschwend , Simon Munzert , Elias Koch

引用次数: 0

The Swedish historical municipal council database 瑞典历史市政委员会数据库

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102921

Abrar Bawati , Moa Frödin Gruneau , Josefine Magnusson , Johanna Rickne

引用次数: 0