Is opinion-policy congruence rewarded at the ballot box?

IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE
Jesper Lindqvist, Mikael Persson, Anders Sundell
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

It is well known that voters prefer parties whose policy positions align with their own. But do voters actually reward incumbents who implement policies preferred by the electorate? Using cross-country data covering more than 350 elections and opinion-policy congruence measures based on 166 issues, our analysis reveals an unexpected non-correlation between opinion-policy congruence and electoral success. Governments that implement (or keep in place) policies with higher levels of support in the electorate do not do better in subsequent elections. This result holds when controlling for the state of the economy, and when using other, country-specific, datasets. The study reinforces conclusions from previous research that retrospective policy voting seems to be very limited.

民意与政策的一致性是否会在投票箱中得到回报?
众所周知,选民倾向于政策立场与自己一致的政党。但选民是否真的会奖励那些执行选民偏好政策的现任者呢?通过使用涵盖 350 多场选举的跨国数据以及基于 166 个问题的民意-政策一致性测量,我们的分析揭示了民意-政策一致性与选举成功之间意想不到的非相关性。实施(或保留)获得更多选民支持的政策的政府在随后的选举中并没有取得更好的成绩。在控制经济状况和使用其他特定国家的数据集时,这一结果仍然成立。这项研究加强了以往研究的结论,即追溯性政策投票似乎非常有限。
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来源期刊
Electoral Studies
Electoral Studies POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
13.00%
发文量
82
审稿时长
67 days
期刊介绍: Electoral Studies is an international journal covering all aspects of voting, the central act in the democratic process. Political scientists, economists, sociologists, game theorists, geographers, contemporary historians and lawyers have common, and overlapping, interests in what causes voters to act as they do, and the consequences. Electoral Studies provides a forum for these diverse approaches. It publishes fully refereed papers, both theoretical and empirical, on such topics as relationships between votes and seats, and between election outcomes and politicians reactions; historical, sociological, or geographical correlates of voting behaviour; rational choice analysis of political acts, and critiques of such analyses.
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