Electoral Studies最新文献_第2页

When do candidates “go negative”? A conjoint analysis to unpack the mechanisms of negative campaigning

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102894

Sebastian Stier , Corinna Oschatz , Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg , Jürgen Maier , Alessandro Nai , Nora Kirkizh

{"title":"When do candidates “go negative”? A conjoint analysis to unpack the mechanisms of negative campaigning","authors":"Sebastian Stier , Corinna Oschatz , Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg , Jürgen Maier , Alessandro Nai , Nora Kirkizh","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102894","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102894","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Negative campaigning has become a prevalent campaign strategy not just in the U.S., but also in other established democracies. While negative campaigning has been a prominent focus of the academic literature, the state of knowledge is still mostly based on observational data, often artifacts of campaigning such as content analysis of press releases, campaign ads, or social media posts. Based on a pre-registered conjoint experiment embedded in surveys of more than 800 candidates running in German state elections, the paper aims to explain under what conditions candidates attack their opponents. Rational-choice considerations matter, as candidates are more likely to attack when they see a net gain in the strategy. However, the characteristics and behavior of the opponent also play an important role. Negative campaigning is more likely if the opponent is male, ideologically distant, and has attacked before. In contrast, the closeness of the race and the likelihood of retaliation have no influence on attack behavior. Furthermore, the decision to attack their opponent is largely independent of candidates’ own incumbency status, gender, or personality. By integrating relevant factors that were identified in the literature in one research design, the paper sheds light on the drivers of campaign negativity and points towards the role of further situational factors that are shaping candidates' behavior on the campaign trail. Beyond negative campaigning, this study demonstrates the value of embedding experimental designs in samples of political elites.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102894"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143135973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Losing predicts perceptions that elections were decided by fraud, but margin of loss and candidate race do not

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102880

Cecile Tobin , Ben Aronson , Sharanya Majumder , Hannah Tanenbaum , Ethan Weber , John M. Carey , Brian Fogarty , Brendan Nyhan , Jason Reifler

{"title":"Losing predicts perceptions that elections were decided by fraud, but margin of loss and candidate race do not","authors":"Cecile Tobin , Ben Aronson , Sharanya Majumder , Hannah Tanenbaum , Ethan Weber , John M. Carey , Brian Fogarty , Brendan Nyhan , Jason Reifler","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102880","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102880","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Which factors cause citizens to think that an election was determined by fraud? Fraud beliefs have been shown to be more common among supporters of losing candidates. In the current U.S. context, fraud beliefs are also higher among Republicans than Democrats. However, we know less about the roles of electoral margin and candidate race. Beliefs that candidates won due to fraud might be more likely in closely contested elections, where small shifts in vote share could be decisive, or when non-white candidates defeat white candidates given perceived associations between race and crime or corruption. We examine these questions with a unique survey in which a nationally representative sample (n <span><math><mo>=</mo></math></span> 2896) reported their beliefs about the legitimacy of a random subset of 2022 U.S. House election outcomes. Our results indicate that Republican participants are far more likely than are Democrats to believe that House election results were determined by fraud, and that the partisan gap is larger for contests the GOP candidate lost. However, we do not find convincing evidence that these perceptions were driven by the margin by which the losing candidate was defeated or the apparent race of the candidates. These results suggest that party is the dominant factor in perceptions of election legitimacy, trumping losing vote margin and candidate race.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102880"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143092066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Explicit partisan candidate support and bureaucratic responsiveness in hyper-partisan environment: Evidence from a field experiment

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102890

Seung Wook Ethan Yoo

{"title":"Explicit partisan candidate support and bureaucratic responsiveness in hyper-partisan environment: Evidence from a field experiment","authors":"Seung Wook Ethan Yoo","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102890","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102890","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous studies have analyzed public officials' responsiveness toward citizens based on citizens' racial and ethnic, gender, or religious identities. However, much less attention has been paid to whether a citizen's explicit partisan identification influences election officials' responsiveness. Therefore, this study investigates whether election officials discriminate against partisan identifying constituents when responding to election-related email inquiries using a nation level audit experiment. In doing so, email inquiries about voting information with varying experimental conditions are sent to election officials across the United States (n = 6606). I find a lower likelihood of response for email inquiries with explicit partisan identifying conditions compared to those without any explicit partisan identification. The results provide implications on how recent increase in burdens associated with election official duties, aided by extraordinarily high levels of affective polarization and negative partisanship in the United States, can undermine some American voters' general ability to freely and fairly participate in elections.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102890"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143092067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatial contagion and party competition on environmental issue salience

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102893

Luigi Curini , Luca Pinto

引用次数: 0

Who cares about the culture war? Evidence from a vote choice conjoint experiment

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102895

James Breckwoldt

引用次数: 0

Motivations for partisan attachment in the developing world

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102896

Ankita Barthwal, Francesca R. Jensenius

{"title":"Motivations for partisan attachment in the developing world","authors":"Ankita Barthwal, Francesca R. Jensenius","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102896","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102896","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In developing countries, partisanship is pervasive, but its motivations remain largely unexplored. Whereas non-programmatic party–voter linkages dominate the political discourse in these contexts, we posit that such linkages are probably not the sole motivating factor behind partisanship. Drawing on interviews and an original survey from India – a context rife with non-programmatic exchanges – we find that partisans generally attribute their loyalty to parties’ ideological positions and policy platforms. This finding is reinforced by a priming experiment in which respondents made to reflect on parties’ ideologies and policies were more likely to self-report as partisans. Priming non-programmatic party–voter linkages in the form of community-based favoritism produces no discernible effect. Exploring differences between those attributing their own partisan loyalty to more programmatic or more non-programmatic motivations, we find the former group to be more consistent in their voting patterns and more likely to report negative partisanship, though both groups express similar levels of affective partisan attachment. Our findings underscore the need for more nuanced theorizing of partisanship and its effects in the developing world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102896"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143151452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to ‘Voting at 16: Intended and unintended consequences of Austria's electoral reform’ [Electoral Studies, 61 (2019), 102064]

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102876

Laura Bronner , David Ifkovits

引用次数: 0

Do working-class candidates activate class-based voting?

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102862

Jared Abbott , Fred DeVeaux

{"title":"Do working-class candidates activate class-based voting?","authors":"Jared Abbott , Fred DeVeaux","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102862","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102862","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>After steadily leaving the Democratic Party, working-class voters are increasingly seen as pivotal in US elections. What type of candidates should parties nominate to win over working-class voters? Parties often nominate candidates based on characteristics they think will appeal to certain groups of voters. These typically include campaign messages, such as policy positions or rhetoric, but can also include descriptive characteristics. In this paper we use a conjoint experiment to test whether candidates’ class background can activate class-based voting. Overall, we find that a candidate’s occupation has a substantial effect on voter perceptions: working-class respondents are 6.4 percentage points more likely to prefer a candidate with a working-class occupation over one with an upper-class occupation. This effect is not driven by inferences that respondents make about candidates’ policy positions or group-based rhetoric. Instead, we find that working-class voters perceive working-class candidates as more understanding of their problems. Our results suggest that candidates’ class background is an underappreciated yet effective mechanism for activating class-based voting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 102862"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143169768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Sorry not Sorry: Presentational strategies and the electoral punishment of corruption” [Elect. Stud. 92 (2024): 102867]

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102875

Dean Dulay , Seulki Lee

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to ‘Voting at 16: Intended and unintended consequences of Austria's electoral reform’ [Elect. Stud., Volume 61 (2019), 102064]

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102877

Laura Bronner , David Ifkovits

引用次数: 0