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Preferences for female successors: Evidence from a survey experiment among Japanese local politicians 对女性继任者的偏好：来自日本地方政客调查实验的证据
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102956
Hikaru Nukui , Hirofumi Miwa , Yoshikuni Ono
{"title":"Preferences for female successors: Evidence from a survey experiment among Japanese local politicians","authors":"Hikaru Nukui ,&nbsp;Hirofumi Miwa ,&nbsp;Yoshikuni Ono","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102956","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102956","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Incumbents often serve as critical gatekeepers in the recruitment of new candidates and may even designate their successors upon retirement. Some existing research indicates that the gender of gatekeepers is likely to affect the recruitment of female candidates, a dynamic of particular concern in countries like Japan, where political offices are predominantly held by men. However, it remains unclear whether the underrepresentation of women stems from male incumbents actively discriminating against female candidates during the recruitment process. Through a survey experiment involving over 7000 elected local politicians in Japan, we examine gender biases in the successor selection process and attitudes toward female candidacy. Contrary to our expectations, the results reveal that local politicians, irrespective of their own gender, are more inclined to nominate women over men as their successors. They also believe that these female candidates would receive support from their local constituencies. These findings suggest that the selection practices of incumbents may not significantly contribute to the underrepresentation of women in politics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102956"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144535187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The politics of litigating and adjudicating electoral disputes: Evidence from Zambia 诉讼和裁决选举纠纷的政治：来自赞比亚的证据
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102955
Øyvind Stiansen , Haakon Gjerløw , Lise Rakner
{"title":"The politics of litigating and adjudicating electoral disputes: Evidence from Zambia","authors":"Øyvind Stiansen ,&nbsp;Haakon Gjerløw ,&nbsp;Lise Rakner","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102955","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102955","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Elections are increasingly judicialized in many multiparty regimes. The ability to challenge flawed elections in independent courts can be crucial for democratization, may deter irregularities, and may prevent post-election violence. However, litigating against the elections of opposition candidates can also enable ruling parties to consolidate control following narrow electoral victories. In executive-dominated systems, such a strategy may be facilitated by how uneven access to resources may make litigation particularly attractive for ruling-party candidates and by how judges may feel pressured to nullify opposition victories, triggering by-elections that ruling parties are likely to win. We investigate these expectations using a novel dataset of electoral petitions from the 2011, 2016, and 2021 Zambian elections. We show that losing candidates from the party gaining or retaining control over the executive were more likely to litigate against their losses. However, we find no evidence that judges tended to favor these candidates relative to other petitioners.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102955"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rural representation in Europe: The presence of place in national parliaments 欧洲的农村代表权：在国家议会中的地位
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102962
Guillem Rico, Rubén García del Horno, Enrique Hernández
{"title":"Rural representation in Europe: The presence of place in national parliaments","authors":"Guillem Rico,&nbsp;Rubén García del Horno,&nbsp;Enrique Hernández","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102962","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102962","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent research shows a growing rural-urban divide in political attitudes and behavior, which has given currency to expressions like “places that don't matter” and “rural resentment”. Although these accounts point to a crisis of political representation, the topic has hardly been approached from the theories and methods of the unequal representation literature. Against this backdrop, this paper provides a systematic assessment of biases in place-related descriptive representation in 28 European countries. Using data on legislator biographies and geographic and demographic statistics, we first examine the relative presence of legislators with urban and rural backgrounds in national parliaments, and then assess the extent to which parliamentary composition, in terms of members' birthplaces, reflects the broader demographic makeup of country populations. Next, we explore how variation in the territorial background of legislators relates to country, party, and individual-level factors. Results show that rural areas tend to be underrepresented in national parliaments when compared to urban ones. Differences in the descriptive representation of rural areas vary in consistent ways with urbanization levels, electoral system features, parties' characteristic constituencies, territorial embeddedness and ideological orientation, and legislator sociodemographics. The study's results underscore the need for greater scholarly attention to the representation of place—particularly rural areas—to better understand its potential consequences on symbolic marginalization, feelings of exclusion, and a lack of policies addressing their needs, all of which may fuel political polarization and distrust in democratic institutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102962"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Self-interest and voter support for defund the police 自身利益和选民支持撤资警察
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102958
Marcel Roman , Benjamin Newman
{"title":"Self-interest and voter support for defund the police","authors":"Marcel Roman ,&nbsp;Benjamin Newman","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102958","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102958","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Prior research documents the importance of race, prejudice, and partisanship in shaping mass position-taking on police reform; however, little-to-no research explores self-interest as a potentially operative factor—especially for reforms affecting police budgets and service capacity. We identify a form of self-interest theoretically present for voters when considering “defund the police” proposals and utilize as a test case a police defunding ballot initiative in Los Angeles County with a rare feature rendering it uniquely well-suited for detecting voter self-interest: it targeted the county sheriff's department and was voted on by county residents under and <em>not under</em> this agency's jurisdiction. Using a spatial discontinuity design leveraging contiguous election precincts along different sides of the sheriff department's jurisdictional boundaries, we find little-to-no evidence that voters sought to protect the budget—and thus service capacity—of their public safety provider. Instead, we find evidence that voting was largely driven by anti-minority orientations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102958"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144518437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Place-based resentment and party support in multiparty systems: A study of three consecutive elections in the Netherlands 多党制中基于地域的怨恨和政党支持：对荷兰连续三次选举的研究
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102963
Twan Huijsmans, Wouter van der Brug
{"title":"Place-based resentment and party support in multiparty systems: A study of three consecutive elections in the Netherlands","authors":"Twan Huijsmans,&nbsp;Wouter van der Brug","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102963","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102963","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102963"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144501920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Happy and glorious? The sometimes-unifying effects of the British monarchy 快乐和光荣？英国君主政体有时带来的统一效应
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102961
Braeden Davis , Yu-Shiuan Huang
{"title":"Happy and glorious? The sometimes-unifying effects of the British monarchy","authors":"Braeden Davis ,&nbsp;Yu-Shiuan Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102961","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102961","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do monarchs unify? This article is the first to test whether monarchs promote unity by increasing national pride and decreasing political animus (affective polarization). Using two waves of an original survey experiment on thousands of British participants, we show that priming respondents to think favorably of the monarchy increased feelings of national pride and indirectly reduced affective polarization. Surprisingly however, this effect is only found when measuring affective polarization using social distance and not feeling thermometer items. This suggests that the monarchy has the capacity to reduce feelings of hostility towards fellow countrymen but may not reduce hostility towards political parties. In exploratory analyses we also found treatment increased respondents’ conviction that Scotland and Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK, also mediated by national pride. Our results recommend monarchies in democracies as a promising field for future research by political scientists.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102961"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144510975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Voting alone: Early voting and turnout in couples 单独投票：提前投票和夫妻投票
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102960
Johannes Bergh , Dag Arne Christensen , Henning Finseraas
{"title":"Voting alone: Early voting and turnout in couples","authors":"Johannes Bergh ,&nbsp;Dag Arne Christensen ,&nbsp;Henning Finseraas","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102960","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102960","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Low-turnout groups have less knowledge and understanding of politics. Therefore, their decision to vote may depend more on their family/partner, in which case voting is more of a social than an individual act. The increased use of early voting makes voting more individualized, and we ask if that has a detrimental effect on the propensity to vote in certain groups. If the partner votes prior to election day does that influence the turnout decision of the other partner? Based on administrative voter data covering the entire Norwegian population over several elections, we find that low-propensity voters in couples are demobilized by a partner's early vote, whereas, if anything, the opposite is true for high-propensity voters. There is no demobilization effect in a placebo analysis of couples who divorce between two elections, which suggests that demobilization among couples is not purely driven by selection into early voting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102960"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144480664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Toothless compulsory voting can increase turnout: Evidence from India 无效的强制投票可以提高投票率：来自印度的证据
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102951
Reshikesav Rajan , Shane P. Singh
{"title":"Toothless compulsory voting can increase turnout: Evidence from India","authors":"Reshikesav Rajan ,&nbsp;Shane P. Singh","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102951","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102951","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many places with mandatory voting do not enforce the legal obligation to participate. This raises the question of whether such “toothless” compulsory voting increases turnout, to which existing research provides conflicting answers. We expect that toothless mandatory voting boosts participation, as laws can shape behavior absent deterrence. Leveraging a reform in India, and with a novel dataset, we conduct a causally identified study of the impact of non-penalized compulsory voting. We precisely estimate a large and positive effect of toothless compulsory voting on turnout. This suggests that policymakers aiming to bolster participation can do so with this gentler form of compulsory voting, which entails no punishment of abstainers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102951"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144313176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
With a little help from the crowd: Estimating election fraud with forensic methods 在群众的帮助下：用法医方法估计选举舞弊
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102943
Christoph Koenig
{"title":"With a little help from the crowd: Estimating election fraud with forensic methods","authors":"Christoph Koenig","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102943","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102943","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Election forensics are a widespread tool for diagnosing electoral manipulation out of statistical anomalies in publicly available election micro-data. Yet, in spite of their popularity, they are only rarely used to measure and compare variation in election fraud at the sub-national level. The typical challenges faced by researchers are the wide range of forensic indicators to choose from, the potential variation in manipulation methods across time and space and the difficulty in creating a measure of fraud intensity that is comparable across geographic units and elections. This paper outlines a procedure to overcome these issues by making use of directly observed instances of fraud and machine learning methods. I demonstrate the performance of this procedure for the case of post-2000 Russia and discuss advantages and pitfalls. The resulting estimates of fraud intensity are closely in line with quantitative and qualitative secondary data at the cross-sectional and time-series level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102943"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144306744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wrong place or wrong party? LGBTQ2S+ candidates and district competitiveness 地点错了还是派对错了？LGBTQ2S+候选人与地区竞争力
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102953
Elizabeth Baisley, Quinn M. Albaugh
{"title":"Wrong place or wrong party? LGBTQ2S+ candidates and district competitiveness","authors":"Elizabeth Baisley,&nbsp;Quinn M. Albaugh","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102953","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102953","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The sacrificial lambs thesis holds that internal processes lead parties to nominate candidates from marginalized groups in unwinnable districts. This thesis was first developed to explain women's underrepresentation, but it has since been applied to other groups. The case of LGBTQ2S+ candidates presents an opportunity to explore whether the distribution of candidates across parties can account for (some of) the sacrificial lambs pattern. Are LGBTQ2S+ candidates sacrificial lambs because they run in less winnable districts than their straight cisgender (cis) counterparts or because less competitive third parties are more likely to nominate them? We reconceptualize the sacrificial lambs pattern as a gap in district competitiveness. Conceptually, we see this gap as having two components: a <em>within-party component</em> (from differences in <em>where</em> parties nominate members of a marginalized group) and a <em>between-party component</em> (from differences in <em>which</em> parties nominate more members of a marginalized group). We illustrate how to decompose the gap using data on LGBTQ2S+ candidates in Canadian elections, 2015–2021. We construct probability-based measures of district competitiveness and then use Kitigawa-Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to calculate the within- and between-party components. We find large gaps in district competitiveness in 2019 and 2021, the majority of which is attributable to between-party inequalities. Nonetheless, a substantial portion of this inequality reflects within-party inequalities. Our results suggest that efforts to improve LGBTQ2S+ representation will need to address between-party inequalities in addition to the more traditional focus on within-party inequalities. Our approach could be used to study other groups in other contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102953"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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