Electoral Studies最新文献_第2页

Assessing the impact of internet voting on voter turnout in the 2024 Russian presidential elections 评估网络投票对2024年俄罗斯总统选举投票率的影响

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103008

Alena Teplyshova

{"title":"Assessing the impact of internet voting on voter turnout in the 2024 Russian presidential elections","authors":"Alena Teplyshova","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of internet voting (i-voting) on voter turnout in Russia's 2024 presidential election. While i-voting has been widely studied in democratic contexts, its effects in authoritarian regimes remain underexplored. To address this gap, the study combines a difference-in-differences design with pre-matching to estimate the causal impact of i-voting across Russian regions. The hypothesis is grounded in a theoretical framework that identifies how i-voting can serve authoritarian strategies of turnout management—through controlled mobilisation, reduced visibility of coercion, and potential for covert manipulation. Contrary to the initial expectation, the findings reveal that, while positive, the impact of i-voting on turnout is not statistically significant, with robustness checks confirming the reliability of these results. Rather than driving a significant rise in participation, i-voting may have played a more subtle, stabilising role in managing turnout, aligning with the regime's strategic goals targeting the regions with historically lower turnout. Additionally, the shifting of the same loyal voters from offline to the online platform and demobilisation of certain voter segments may have limited its impact on increasing turnout. These results open up new avenues for understanding how digital technologies are deployed in authoritarian regimes, not necessarily to expand participation but to ensure tighter control over electoral processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103008"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145528103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

All the “Missing” ladies: Attribution bias in candidate selection after electoral setbacks 所有“失踪”的女士：选举挫折后候选人选择中的归因偏见

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103032

Selcen Cakir , Elif Erbay , Konstantinos Matakos

{"title":"All the “Missing” ladies: Attribution bias in candidate selection after electoral setbacks","authors":"Selcen Cakir , Elif Erbay , Konstantinos Matakos","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How do parties update candidate lists after electoral setbacks, and what does this mean for women’s representation? We exploit Turkey’s 2015 back-to-back parliamentary elections as quasi-experimental leverage and implement a difference-in-differences design that compares the governing Justice and Development Party (JDP) to the Republican People’s Party (RPP), whose March 2015 primaries largely fixed the district-level gender composition of slates. Falling short of a single-party majority in June was followed by a roughly 40 % contraction in the JDP’s women candidates and a disproportionate downgrading at electable ranks, interrupting a decade-long upward trend. The contraction is concentrated in conservative strongholds. A rank-weighted decomposition shows that net removals, rather than simple demotions, account for most of the decline; changes outside electable ranks are smaller and imprecisely estimated. Event-time estimates indicate the shock produced a one-off adjustment that reverted by 2018. Taken together, the evidence is most consistent with a mix of statistical discrimination where seats are at stake and attribution bias that overshoots, illustrating how elite responses under compressed timelines can quickly erode representational gains in closed-list systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103032"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145747371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The rural-urban cleavage in US presidential elections: Stability and sudden change 美国总统选举中的城乡分裂：稳定与突然变化

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103019

Valentin Pautonnier , Ruth Dassonneville , Michael S. Lewis-Beck , Richard Nadeau

{"title":"The rural-urban cleavage in US presidential elections: Stability and sudden change","authors":"Valentin Pautonnier , Ruth Dassonneville , Michael S. Lewis-Beck , Richard Nadeau","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent elections in the United States are characterized by a strong urban-rural divide, with rural voters being more likely to vote for the Republican Party and Democratic support concentrated in large urban centers. While much attention has been given to the sources of Republican support among rural voters, less is known about how this divide has emerged over time. Using data from the American National Election Studies (ANES), the Cooperative Election Study (CES), and the General Social Survey (GSS), we trace longitudinal trends in the association between living in rural areas and voting in US presidential elections. Our results show that the rural-urban divide was stable for an extended period of time but suddenly became more pronounced in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Comparative analysis reveals that this cleavage now surpasses gender and income divisions in importance, though it remains weaker than race and religious cleavages. We also show that this sudden strengthening of the rural-urban divide is driven by both rural Democrats switching to the Republican Party and urban Republicans switching to supporting Democratic candidates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103019"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145690558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Issues of high potential: A novel methodology to uncover unactivated public policy demands 高潜力问题：一种揭示未激活公共政策需求的新方法

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103031

James Breckwoldt

{"title":"Issues of high potential: A novel methodology to uncover unactivated public policy demands","authors":"James Breckwoldt","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vote-seeking parties have a clear incentive to align their policies with voter demands, but they do not always do so. When demands go unaddressed, this gap between opinion and responsiveness can weaken trust in democracy and boost support for outsider parties. Despite their relevance to electoral competition, progress in uncovering unmet demands and measuring their relative importance to voters has been limited. This study develops a systematic method to prospectively detect ‘issues of high potential’ where there is bottom-up public demand, elite neglect, and the policy could motivate vote choice if a party were to adopt it. I combine open-ended survey responses, parliamentary speech analysis and a conjoint experiment, which is applied to the United Kingdom. I find that this is successful at uncovering a number of high potential policies, including those that are popular and motivating, those that are divisive and polarising, and those that divide public opinion evenly but motivate voting more strongly on one side. The methodology and findings have important implications for issue voting, political entrepreneurship and democratic responsiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103031"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145796845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Could you please repeat it? The effect of language, and language variety on trust in multinational settings 请您再说一遍好吗？多国环境下语言和语言多样性对信任的影响

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103030

Toni Rodon , Bernat Puertas , Avel·lí Flors-Mas , Núria Franco-Guillén , Sergi Morales-Gálvez

引用次数: 0

Electoral systems and geographically targeted oversight: Evidence from the Taiwan Legislative Yuan 选举制度与地域监督：来自台湾立法院的证据

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103026

Yen-Chieh Liao , Li Tang

引用次数: 0

Burdens and gains. The association between house rent increases and voting in the city of Madrid 负担与收获。马德里市房租上涨与投票之间的关系

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103024

Álvaro Sánchez-García, Hugo Marcos-Marne

{"title":"Burdens and gains. The association between house rent increases and voting in the city of Madrid","authors":"Álvaro Sánchez-García, Hugo Marcos-Marne","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Existing research indicates that the electoral effects of changing house rents depend on political parties’ left-right positioning and adherence to populist ideas. This paper explores the association between house rent increases and voting in Madrid by exploiting the availability of fine-grained data at the census tract-level, and the existence of an electoral arena where parties compete from different positions on crucial dimensions such as populism and the intervention of the state in the economy. In particular, we focus our analysis on non-populist parties of the mainstream left (PSOE) and right (Ciudadanos and PP), a radical right party with a strong neoliberal discourse and inconsistent populist appeals (VOX), and a radical left party that has traditionally adopted a populist discourse (Unidas Podemos). Our main results indicate that house rent increases benefit right-wing parties in neighbourhoods with high ownership rates (economic gain), thus offering an alternative context-dependent mechanism to explain the success of (liberal) radical right parties when house rents rise. They also suggest that house rent increases associate with voting for left-wing parties, especially if they adhere to populist ideas, in neighbourhoods with lower levels of homeownership (economic burden).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103024"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145690555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Childhood poverty and political participation: The role of family, gender and economic mobility 儿童贫困与政治参与：家庭、性别和经济流动的作用

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103029

Clara Weißenfels

{"title":"Childhood poverty and political participation: The role of family, gender and economic mobility","authors":"Clara Weißenfels","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Socio-economic background profoundly shapes electoral participation, with early-life economic hardship significantly dampening political engagement. Yet, poverty is not a monolith, it manifests in diverse ways and unfolds differently across individuals' life courses. This paper advances research on political inequality and political socialisation by examining how childhood poverty's impact on future voting behaviour is moderated by family and individual characteristics, including parental education, political socialisation, gender, and economic mobility. Using German panel data (GSOEP), this study links first-time voters to their parents and analyses electoral participation across four German federal elections (2009, 2013, 2017, and 2021). The findings reveal that while childhood poverty independently suppresses turnout, its effects are contingent on social context. Politically engaged and highly educated parents can buffer their children against the political disengagement associated with poverty, whereas upward economic mobility does not trigger higher turnout rates. These results underscore the interplay between economic hardship, family environment, and individual trajectories in shaping political habit formation, offering new insights into the mechanisms of participatory inequality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103029"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145690556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Who punishes the government? Income-based disparities in economic voting 谁来惩罚政府？经济投票中基于收入的差异

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103038

Chloé De Grauwe, Silke Goubin

引用次数: 0

Added, not selected: The limited electoral effectiveness of party elite interventions in candidate selection 补充，而非选择：政党精英干预候选人选择的有限选举效率

IF 2.3 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103041

Thomas Däubler , Theresa Reidy

{"title":"Added, not selected: The limited electoral effectiveness of party elite interventions in candidate selection","authors":"Thomas Däubler , Theresa Reidy","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103041","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103041","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An inclusive and decentralized mode of candidate selection may lead to unequal outcomes in terms of descriptive representation. Centralized intervention by party headquarters is often used as a partial remedy, but the ultimate effectiveness of these interventions depends on how well the “added” candidates fare on election day. This article investigates whether there is a difference in electoral performance between candidates who are nominated by a party selection convention and those who are added to the ticket directly by party elites. We focus on the Irish general election of 2020. Ireland is an interesting case, since candidate selection is formally inclusive and decentralized, but in practice party headquarters frequently intervene and add candidates. We hypothesize that added candidates, and especially women-added candidates, are less successful on election day. The results suggest that the expected relationships are strongly driven by differences in other observed candidate characteristics, such as incumbency and/or political experience. In addition, there is evidence that added female candidates struggle to obtain first preferences (under the Single Transferable Vote system) from certain subgroups of voters, surprisingly including strong supporters of gender equality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103041"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145976958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0