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Linking individual electoral performance to the composition of elected bodies: A counterfactual-based approach
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102925
Oliver Huwyler
{"title":"Linking individual electoral performance to the composition of elected bodies: A counterfactual-based approach","authors":"Oliver Huwyler","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102925","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102925","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research note presents a counterfactual-based approach to assessing the impact of candidates’ personal vote-earning attributes and list properties on the composition of bodies elected under open and semi-open list proportional representation systems. Previous research has focused heavily on individual electoral performance, overlooking the broader implications for descriptive representation. By identifying counterfactual electees and juxtaposing their numbers with those of factual electees, the proposed approach provides intuitive metrics of how specific factors alter the composition of elected bodies. Applied to the 2023 regional parliament election of Lucerne, Switzerland, the results suggest that the effect sizes identified in regression analyses of electoral performance do not always correspond to how strongly the respective variables subsequently influence the composition of elected bodies. The counterfactual-based approach thus provides valuable insights into the electoral consequences of candidate and list characteristics, and their role in shaping descriptive representation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102925"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143681122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Swedish historical municipal council database
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102921
Abrar Bawati , Moa Frödin Gruneau , Josefine Magnusson , Johanna Rickne
{"title":"The Swedish historical municipal council database","authors":"Abrar Bawati ,&nbsp;Moa Frödin Gruneau ,&nbsp;Josefine Magnusson ,&nbsp;Johanna Rickne","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102921","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102921","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Local political assemblies often perform essential political and governing functions. We introduce the Swedish Municipal Council Database (SMCD), which contains information on municipal council size and the number of elected councilors by gender and party family over a period of 100 years (1919–2018). We describe how this new database enables novel analysis of the development of democracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102921"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143680342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Turning up and down the partisan heat. Voters’ psychological profile and changes in negative radical partisanship over the course of an election
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102926
Alessandro Nai, Patrick F.A. van Erkel, Linda Bos
{"title":"Turning up and down the partisan heat. Voters’ psychological profile and changes in negative radical partisanship over the course of an election","authors":"Alessandro Nai,&nbsp;Patrick F.A. van Erkel,&nbsp;Linda Bos","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102926","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102926","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Who is more likely to get “heated up” against their political rivals during the course of the campaign, as election day draws near? And for whom is such aggressive stance more likely to “cool down” in the aftermath of the election? Leveraging novel evidence from a four-wave longitudinal survey fielded in the weeks leading to – and the aftermath of – the Dutch national elections of November 2023 (<em>N</em> = 5500 in wave 1, <em>N</em> = 1770 in wave 4), we test for the predictors of changes in negative radical partisanship (NRP) in voters. We measure NRP via four independent indicators – support for political violence, partisan Schadenfreude, moral disengagement, and social distance – and investigate the extent to which the psychological profile of respondents affects whether they “heat up” and “cool down” their radical stance during the course of the election. Results suggest that expressive partisanship and need for chaos highly relate to upsurges of negative radical partisanship in the build-up to elections, while at the same time hampering any post-election cooling down. The dark personality profile of respondents and populist attitudes seem to relate only marginally to (de)radicalization. Data and codes are openly available for replication.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102926"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143681099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Partisan and non-partisan conspiracy theories’ diverging effects on political participation
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102920
Mert Can Bayar
{"title":"Partisan and non-partisan conspiracy theories’ diverging effects on political participation","authors":"Mert Can Bayar","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102920","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102920","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>What role do conspiracy theories play in mobilizing political action? Both historical and contemporary accounts have written on the role of conspiracy theories (CTs) in mobilizing various movements, including during the process of nation-building, regime consolidation, and in challenges to liberal democracy in more recent years. In contrast, recent empirical research suggests that beliefs in CTs might reduce participation in politics. However, both research genres have only analyzed a limited number of CTs. This article explores how belief in different CTs affects people’s likelihood to participate in politics, particularly in relation to partisan narratives. Using two surveys conducted in the United States (n=1200) and Turkey (n=1500) -two cases that approximate a most different system design-, it finds that beliefs in partisan CTs encourage citizens to participate in politics while the effect of beliefs in non-partisan CTs on political participation varies depending on the individual’s political affiliation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102920"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143681098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
To moderate, or not to moderate: Strategic domain sharing by congressional campaigns
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102907
Maggie Macdonald , Megan A. Brown , Joshua A. Tucker , Jonathan Nagler
{"title":"To moderate, or not to moderate: Strategic domain sharing by congressional campaigns","authors":"Maggie Macdonald ,&nbsp;Megan A. Brown ,&nbsp;Joshua A. Tucker ,&nbsp;Jonathan Nagler","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102907","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102907","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We test whether candidates move to the extremes before a primary but then return to the center for the general election to appeal to the different preferences of each electorate. Incumbents are now more vulnerable to primary challenges than ever as social media offers a viable pathway for fundraising and messaging for challengers, while homogeneity of districts has reduced general election competitiveness. To assess candidates’ ideological trajectories, we estimate the messaging ideology of 2020 congressional campaigns before and after their primaries using a homophily-based measure of domains shared on Twitter. This method provides temporally granular data to observe changes in communication within a single election campaign cycle. We find suggestive evidence that incumbents in safe seats moved towards the extreme before their primaries and back towards the center for the general election, but only when threatened by a well-funded primary challenge.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102907"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143637188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Electoral systems and assembly size
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102922
Simon Otjes
{"title":"Electoral systems and assembly size","authors":"Simon Otjes","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102922","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102922","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The cube-root rules of assembly size is one of the strongest relationships in political science. Its theoretical underpinning is given by Taagepera (1972). It is based on the notion that assembly size is optimal when the number of communication channels between representatives among themselves <em>and</em> between citizens and their representative is minimal. This article argues that if one follows the logic of the cube-root rule, proportional electoral systems should be associated with greater assemblies: in that case citizens can communicate with more than one representative. This additional links will result in larger assemblies. This article tests this in 128 national parliaments or lower houses. It finds strong evidence for the importance of electoral systems for assembly size.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102922"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143609379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring rural and urban consciousness in Europe
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102912
Christopher Claassen , Sascha Göbel , Antonia Lang , Kathrin Ackermann , Petar Bankov , Kevin Brookes , Bartolomeo Cappellina , Christopher Carman , Markus Freitag , Rubén García Del Horno , Enrique Hernández , Guillem Rico , Sigrid Rossteutscher , Richard Traunmüller , Michael Webb , Sonja Zmerli , Alina Zumbrunn
{"title":"Measuring rural and urban consciousness in Europe","authors":"Christopher Claassen ,&nbsp;Sascha Göbel ,&nbsp;Antonia Lang ,&nbsp;Kathrin Ackermann ,&nbsp;Petar Bankov ,&nbsp;Kevin Brookes ,&nbsp;Bartolomeo Cappellina ,&nbsp;Christopher Carman ,&nbsp;Markus Freitag ,&nbsp;Rubén García Del Horno ,&nbsp;Enrique Hernández ,&nbsp;Guillem Rico ,&nbsp;Sigrid Rossteutscher ,&nbsp;Richard Traunmüller ,&nbsp;Michael Webb ,&nbsp;Sonja Zmerli ,&nbsp;Alina Zumbrunn","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102912","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102912","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A rural consciousness, encompassing a rural identity and resentments directed at urban areas and the political elite, has emerged as a key explanation for the growing rural–urban political divides affecting many Western democracies. However, existing research has largely focused on the case of the United States; there is also no consensus as to the structure or dimensionality of rural (and urban) consciousness. In response, this paper develops and tests a battery of 16 items for measuring consciousness in five Western European countries: Britain, France, Germany, Spain, and Switzerland. We show that both rural and urban consciousness are best understood as comprising a dimension of identity and three dimensions of resentment pertaining to power, resources, and culture, in line with Cramer’s original conceptualization. We furthermore find that rural consciousness in Western Europe is generally associated with indicators of “left behind” status such as low income and lack of a university education and is also associated with identification with the political right. This shows how rural–urban identities and resentments can help illuminate the changing political landscape of Western Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102912"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143578725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The strategic dilemma of social democracy: Lessons from Slovakia
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102911
Roman Hlatky , Oľga Gyárfášová
{"title":"The strategic dilemma of social democracy: Lessons from Slovakia","authors":"Roman Hlatky ,&nbsp;Oľga Gyárfášová","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102911","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102911","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The declining fortunes of European social democracy have been the subject of much attention. A contested explanation for how to remedy the decline concerns whether conservative shifts on sociocultural and transnational issues are helpful or harmful at the ballot box. In contrast, we focus on an underexplored adaptation strategy: the split of social democracy along the sociocultural cleavage. We analyze the Slovak case where a successful, dominant social democratic party, Smer-SD, divided. One part of the divide took radical, conservative stances on sociocultural and geopolitical issues, while the other part adopted moderate positions. Analyzing over 30 public opinion polls, we show that the split and the parties’ subsequent ideological differentiation led to electoral success. Radicalization attracted conservative former radical-right voters; moderation ensured the support of the more liberal middle class. Situating Slovakia in the wider European context, we: (1) suggest that the salience of the sociocultural cleavage has strengthened the appeal of a nationalist left programmatic direction in Central and Eastern Europe; (2) explore why moderate social democracy succeeded in Slovakia but failed elsewhere; and (3) confirm previous findings on the importance of strong leadership and a large membership base for splinter party success, and on voter responsiveness to parties' ideological and programmatic shifts. More generally, the Slovak case illustrates that party splits are both a consequence of and a potentially effective response to the strategic dilemma of social democracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102911"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143562848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The poles in polarization: Social categorization and affective polarization in multiparty systems
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102908
Adrian Rothers
{"title":"The poles in polarization: Social categorization and affective polarization in multiparty systems","authors":"Adrian Rothers","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102908","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102908","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A challenge in adapting the concept of affective polarization to multiparty systems has been to determine who is polarized against whom. I propose a strategy to uncover the different ways in which people construe the political field – that is, how they categorize the party landscape in terms of “us” and “them” from commonly-used survey data. Using 2023 panel data from Germany, a multiparty democracy, I show that people are polarized in opposing camps along three different divides: between Left and Right, between Mainstream and Rightwing Populists, and between Center and Extreme. To understand what people are polarized over, I explore the issue differences that underpin each of the divides. Lastly, I examine the associations between affective polarization and democratic attitudes across camps and find considerable variation in those associations. This variation suggests that perhaps not all affective polarization should be seen as equally problematic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102908"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143550562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Magnitude matters: Voter turnout under different electoral systems
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102910
Michał Pierzgalski , Maciej A. Górecki , Paweł Stępień
{"title":"Magnitude matters: Voter turnout under different electoral systems","authors":"Michał Pierzgalski ,&nbsp;Maciej A. Górecki ,&nbsp;Paweł Stępień","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102910","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102910","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do voters participate more under proportional than plurality systems? While existing research typically suggests proportional representation (PR) systems exhibit higher turnout than majoritarian systems, several studies indicate a less clear-cut relationship between proportionality and voter turnout. Using a regression discontinuity design, we analyze constituency-level data from Polish municipal elections (1998-2010) to compare three electoral systems: single-member district plurality (SMDP), multi-member district plurality (MMDP), and open-list proportional representation (OLPR). This institutional setting allows us to examine both electoral formula and district magnitude effects through two transitions: from SMDP to OLPR (changing both formula and magnitude) and from MMDP to OLPR (changing primarily formula). We find that PR increases turnout by 3-4 percentage points compared to SMDP but shows no significant differences compared to MMDP. These contrasting effects suggest that district magnitude, not just electoral formula, shapes voter participation. Our findings challenge the view that proportional representation inherently increases voter participation by showing that turnout differences emerge primarily from the shift to multi-member districts. The results demonstrate how the interaction between district magnitude and electoral formula affects voting behavior, moving beyond the simple majoritarian-proportional dichotomy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102910"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143454740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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