Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-11-24DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103009
Josh Goddard
{"title":"Housing and electoral behaviour: The changing face of class voting in advanced democracies","authors":"Josh Goddard","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Scholarship on the relationship between social structure and electoral behaviour has traditionally operationalised voters’ economic or class situations in terms of their labour market positions. Such an approach overlooks the growing importance of housing as a source of both socio-structural and electoral division. Using national election studies and household panel data from fourteen countries, I conduct the first systematic, cross-national, and longitudinal analysis of the electoral behaviour of housing market groups, finding that housing represents a strong and growing electoral divide in advanced democracies. Electoral support for centre-right and radical left parties is most strongly associated with housing market position, with homeowners significantly and increasingly more likely to support the former and renters significantly and increasingly more likely to support the latter. When other factors, such as house value and rental contract type are considered, housing based electoral divides appear even greater in scope, to the extent that housing market position is now a stronger predictor of voting for some party families – the centre-right and radical left in particular – than labour market position. These findings challenge the claim that class or economic circumstances have become increasingly unimportant in structuring voting behaviour, and suggest an updated conceptualisation and operationalisation of social stratification – which moves beyond occupation and the labour market – is required to understand the social structuring of contemporary politics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103009"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145624481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-12-09DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103034
Juhyeok Lee, Nam Kyu Kim
{"title":"Party organizational strength and voter turnout in authoritarian regimes","authors":"Juhyeok Lee, Nam Kyu Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103034","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103034","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how ruling party organizational strength influences voter turnout in authoritarian elections. While parties and elections serve as crucial instruments for authoritarian survival, their effect on voter mobilization remains understudied. We argue that organizationally robust ruling parties–characterized by extensive grassroots networks and deep societal ties–enhance regimes’ capacity to manipulate electoral participation. However, dictators do not uniformly maximize turnout but selectively mobilize supporters while demobilizing opponents, particularly in competitive elections. Accordingly, we hypothesize that the effect of party strength on turnout is conditional on electoral competitiveness. Analyzing 94 autocracies from 1970–2019, we find that party organizational strength significantly increases turnout in non-competitive elections but has negligible effects in competitive contests. This pattern intensified after the Cold War as competitive authoritarianism proliferated globally.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103034"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145747372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103035
Ida B. Hjermitslev , Svenja Krauss
{"title":"An attentive audience? If and how voters evaluate coalition formation","authors":"Ida B. Hjermitslev , Svenja Krauss","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103035","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103035","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coalition governments have traditionally been criticized for creating low clarity of responsibility and thus impairing voters’ ability to hold representatives accountable. Recent scholarship has suggested that voters are actually evaluating the coalition behavior of individual parties—not only at the end of the government period but also at the government formation stage. The answers to an open-ended question included in the Austrian National Election Study (AUTNES) in 2020, provide unique insights into the considerations that voters have when evaluating the formation of a government coalition. We find that these considerations include expected policy output, but also other aspects such as ideology, portfolio allocation, and fairness of payoffs etc. When exploring the topic of portfolio allocation in depth, we find that both quantitative and qualitative considerations play a role. Furthermore, we explore whether the extent to which voters think about and rationalize their satisfaction with the coalition formation, and the specific type of considerations that voters have in mind, depend on individual-level characteristics such as satisfaction with the outcome, political sophistication and partisanship.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103035"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145839282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-10DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103043
Eduardo Mello , Will Jennings , Lawrence McKay , Oto Montagner
{"title":"Effects of a politician’s reputation for providing electoral clientelism: A theory with evidence from Brazil","authors":"Eduardo Mello , Will Jennings , Lawrence McKay , Oto Montagner","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article offers a new theory of how reputations for electoral clientelism affect voter behaviour. Existing accounts emphasise direct exchanges between candidates and clients, but often overlook how broader audiences evaluate these practices. We develop a formal model showing that voters’ preferences over clientelistic candidates are shaped by their trust in political institutions: when trust is low, voters—whether clients or not—may view clientelism as a credible signal of goodwill and effectiveness. When trust is high, they favour programmatic candidates instead. We test the model’s predictions through a conjoint survey experiment conducted with 2148 Brazilian voters. We find that reputations for clientelism increase electoral support, especially among citizens with lower institutional trust. The findings advance theories of clientelism and electoral accountability by incorporating public perceptions, not just private exchanges, into the strategic calculus of candidates and voters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103043"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-10DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103042
Justin Robinson , Ruth Dassonneville
{"title":"Conflict on the campaign trail? How campaign effort and electoral competitiveness shape affective polarization","authors":"Justin Robinson , Ruth Dassonneville","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Concerns about the consequences of affective polarization for governing and democracy have resulted in a strong surge of publications on the topic. This literature has already provided much insight into the individual-level correlates of affective polarization, but we know much less about how the political context in which voters choose can contribute to affective polarization. We theorize that the intensity of election campaigns increases affective polarization, which we capture through indicators of (a) campaign spending, from both in-parties and out-parties, and (b) electoral competitiveness. Using the British case and leveraging within-country and over-time variation in these indicators, we find support for our expectations. Specifically, we show first that in-party spending is positively associated with affective polarization, leading both to increased in-party like and out-party dislike. Second, we show that competitiveness is positively associated with out-party dislike—individuals who experience more competitive electoral contests grow to dislike parties that they compete with to a greater degree. We contend that this mechanism could contribute to the within-country variations in affective polarization found in previous research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103042"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-11-27DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103023
Lotte Hargrave , Jessica C. Smith , Viktor Valgarðsson , Daniel Devine , Hannah Bunting , Caroline Leicht
{"title":"Who is trusted to navigate the storm? Gendered leadership preferences in times of crisis","authors":"Lotte Hargrave , Jessica C. Smith , Viktor Valgarðsson , Daniel Devine , Hannah Bunting , Caroline Leicht","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103023","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103023","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>What traits do the public prioritise when it comes to trusting political leaders during crises, and are these expectations gendered? While prior research has examined gender biases in political leadership, especially in masculine-coded crises like security or defence, less attention has been paid to how <em>different</em> crisis types shape preferences for gendered leadership traits. Drawing on a UK-based survey experiment, we examine which traits the public value in trustworthy politicians across health, security, and economic crises. We find that while honesty is a universally prioritised trustworthy trait, broader trait preferences are moderated by the type of crisis and respondent gender. Although feminine traits are preferred across the board, security crises elicit relatively stronger preferences for traditionally masculine traits than other crisis types, although only among men. Conversely, health crises amplify support for feminine traits, although only among women. These findings highlight how crisis contexts activate gendered expectations of leadership, revealing that what the public wants from politicians shifts with both the nature of the crisis and the gender of the voter.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103023"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145624482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-12-19DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103036
Don S. Lee , Charles T. McClean
{"title":"How do underrepresented voters view electoral system trade-offs?","authors":"Don S. Lee , Charles T. McClean","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103036","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103036","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Scholars of electoral reform have long debated the trade-off between accountability and representation in majoritarian versus proportional systems, yet few have examined how voters themselves view this trade-off. We argue that voters who have historically lacked political voice, such as women and young people, are more likely to favor reforms that expand representation, even at some cost to accountability. We test this argument using a conjoint experiment conducted before South Korea’s 2020 election—a moment marked by intense public debate over whether the government should implement electoral reforms to enhance representation or accountability. Our findings show that while women and younger voters lean toward more representative rules, they also value accountability and resist certain reforms that would weaken it. This preference for representation is stronger when considering major electoral system changes rather than minor rule adjustments and is especially pronounced among independent or minor party supporters compared to major party supporters. These insights have important implications for our understanding of electoral reform, voter preferences, and the political inclusion of underrepresented groups.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103036"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145796844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103044
Raf Reuse , Dieter Stiers
{"title":"Finding your perfect match nearby. A test of proximity and issue salience voting in local elections","authors":"Raf Reuse , Dieter Stiers","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103044","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103044","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ideology is considered one of the main determinants of the vote. However, most research focuses on national elections, leaving the role of policy preferences in local voting behaviour largely unexplored. This gap is surprising, because the role of ideology is more contested in local than in national elections. Whereas some claim that managing local communities is a mostly technocratic affair, others argue that this still allows for ideological divisions between parties and voters. This article contributes to this debate by testing proximity and issue salience voting in local elections in Flanders. Do voters take the positions and issue attention of local parties into account when they cast their ballot at the local level? Using exit poll data combined with a novel measure on local parties' left-right position and issue salience, we find that ideology does matter in determining voter choices. Our results suggest that local elections might be less different from national elections than often assumed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103044"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-11-19DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103021
Sania Akter , Yann Kerevel , Austin S. Matthews
{"title":"Party gatekeeping of working-class candidates under closed-list proportional representation","authors":"Sania Akter , Yann Kerevel , Austin S. Matthews","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do political parties discriminate against working-class candidates? Several studies indicate political parties may disadvantage working-class candidates by marginalizing them during the nomination process. In this study, we examine one way in which party leaders may marginalize working-class candidates through list placement under closed-list proportional representation (PR). Using the occupational background of candidates from national parliamentary elections in Moldova, and national and sub-national elections in Germany, we find working-class candidates are systematically ranked lower on PR lists, even after accounting for other known factors that influence list placement. We also explore heterogeneous class effects by party and sex, and examine possible mechanisms to explain workers' lower list placement. Our results suggest part of the reason for workers’ disadvantage is due to their lack of political experience and the organizational weakness of unions. This study finds parties disadvantage candidates based on their class background which further contributes to their underrepresentation in legislatures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103021"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145579880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-13DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103046
Allan Sikk , Sona N. Golder , Raimondas Ibenskas , Paulina Sałek-Lipcean
{"title":"Corrigendum to ‘Does switching pay off? The impact of parliamentary party instability on individual electoral performance’ [Elect. Stud. Volume 99, February 2026, 103037]","authors":"Allan Sikk , Sona N. Golder , Raimondas Ibenskas , Paulina Sałek-Lipcean","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103046","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103046","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 103046"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146037298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}