The East in wolf’s clothing. Wolf attacks correlate with but do not cause far-right voting

Abstract

The resurgence of wolves in Germany has sparked intense debate, particularly in rural areas where wolf attacks on livestock are frequent. Prior research has linked wolf attacks to a rise in support for the far-right AfD party and the corresponding decline in Green Party votes. This note challenges such conclusions, highlighting significant methodological issues in the original difference-in-differences design. The geographic clustering of wolf attacks in East Germany aligns with other pre-existing political divides, complicating causal attribution. The analysis reveals pre-treatment voting trends that predict the probability of wolf attacks. Splitting data by East and West Germany or including diverging regional trends in the regression models nullifies or reverses most previously reported effects. This study underscores the complexities of using panel data in spatially and temporally heterogeneous contexts.