Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-08-31DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102985
Anja Neundorf , Ksenia Northmore-Ball
{"title":"Learning to vote in democratic and authoritarian elections","authors":"Anja Neundorf , Ksenia Northmore-Ball","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102985","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102985","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High turnout levels are key to legitimacy in new democracies, ultimately contributing to their consolidation. However, little is known about the determinants of long-term electoral participation and how the legacies of authoritarian and democratic elections compare. To investigate these individual-level legacies, we rely on socialization and institutional theories of turnout, which have not been tested in authoritarian settings. We rely on newly harmonized public opinion data covering over 106 countries from 1975 to 2016 to estimate generational differences in propensity to vote. Leveraging within-country variation, we confirm the positive effects of early opportunities on turnout later in life. Generations of voters who experienced their formative years in authoritarian contexts without national elections are less likely to take up opportunities to vote later in life than those with some formative experience of elections, even uncompetitive ones. However, experiencing high numbers of uncompetitive elections, typical in authoritarian elections, can jade voters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 102985"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144920059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-16DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103001
Luana Russo
{"title":"Negative partisanship in Western Europe","authors":"Luana Russo","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We still know little about levels of negative partisanship in Western Europe, what it consists of, how it relates to important key attitudinal variables, and its relation to the radical-right. This paper addresses these open questions, finding that negative partisanship reaches up to 70 %, which is often more prevalent than positive partisanship, and that it is mainly composed of the rejection of a party's worldviews. Positive and negative partisanship strongly predict one another, while political involvement and the salience of one's political identity are significant predictors of both. Also, being on the left of the ideological spectrum is associated with having a negative partisanship. Finally, observing the relationship between the radical-right and negative partisanship, three elements emerge: disliking a PRRP is associated with higher levels of negative partisanship, which is higher on the left side of the ideological left-right continuum, but the relation is curvilinear, and this distribution varies largely across countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103001"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145320538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-16DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102997
Michael C. Herron , Daniel A. Smith
{"title":"Assisting the vote? Disability as a cost of voting","authors":"Michael C. Herron , Daniel A. Smith","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102997","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102997","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tens of millions of voting-eligible Americans live with disabilities, many of whom need a form of assistance when casting ballots. Drawing on publicly available administrative data from five recent general elections in Florida (2014–2022), we offer a portrait of individuals who have attested when registering to vote that they need assistance when voting. Then, leveraging turnout data as well as vote-by-mail (VBM) requests and returned ballot data from our five elections, we model turnout and the likelihood of having a rejected VBM ballot as a function of the need for voting assistance, among other voter-level factors. We find that the rate of registered voters needing assistance has remained steady in Florida at roughly three percent, that older and racial/ethnic minority voters are more likely to attest that they need assistance to vote, and that, all things equal, voters needing assistance not only have a lower overall turnout rate but also are slightly more likely to have their VBM ballots rejected than registered voters who do not indicate they need assistance to vote.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 102997"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-18DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102988
B.K. Song
{"title":"The effect of incumbency in a mixed-member electoral system","authors":"B.K. Song","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102988","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102988","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, I demonstrate that incumbency advantage can arise for different reasons across electoral systems by examining a mixed-member system. My findings from a regression discontinuity design indicate that an incumbency advantage exists in both district and proportional representation (PR) tiers. Additionally, I provide evidence that distinct mechanisms underpin these advantages: parties strategically assign favorable ballot positions to incumbents from both tiers when competing for district seats, but this party-driven advantage is more pronounced for PR incumbents. By contrast, voter support mechanisms mainly favor district incumbents. Finally, I demonstrate that this incumbency advantage is short-lived for both tiers, which implies that an entry-level political office does not necessarily serve as a springboard for career politicians in the South Korean mixed-member system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 102988"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-11-03DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103007
Simon Otjes
{"title":"Patterns of regional and local council size","authors":"Simon Otjes","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is a growing literature that examines how subnational assembly size affects policy outcomes like turnout and women's representation, but also infant mortality and school enrollment. Political scientists know little about what shapes subnational assembly size, however. In this article, I analyse three possible explanations: firstly, building on the work of Taagepera, I propose that population size and assembly size are related: larger populations require greater assemblies following some power relationship. Secondly, I propose that the level of autonomy a subnational entity enjoys may be correlated with the size of the assembly: if a region or municipality has more autonomy, its assembly is likely to be larger. Thirdly, I propose that municipal councils that can determine their own size, will be larger, as representatives seek to ensure re-election. I test these explanations on over 600 regional assemblies in 31 OECD and EU countries and 80,000 municipalities in 31 European countries. I find that population size is the strongest predictor of council size and that the autonomy of the subnational entity is also a significant predictor and that freedom to determine assembly size is not consistently related to assembly size.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103007"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-14DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103002
Eric R. Hansen
{"title":"Mass higher education and voter turnout in the U.S.","authors":"Eric R. Hansen","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Have turnout rates in the U.S. risen as more Americans have attained college degrees? Educational attainment is associated with a higher likelihood of voting among individuals, but scholars remain skeptical that increases in mass education levels are associated with higher turnout in populations. I argue that higher rates of college degree attainment not only raise turnout rates among graduates themselves but have positive externalities for turnout in graduates’ communities. To test the relationship at the aggregate level in the U.S., I turn to data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia from 1980 to 2020, when college education rates rose nationwide but at varying rates by state. Under several modeling strategies, I find voter turnout increased most in states where college-educated populations grew most quickly, while turnout held steady in states where educational gains were more modest. Replicating the main findings using county-level data over the same period yields similar conclusions. The results have important implications for studying mass turnout and for efforts to increase participation in the U.S.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103002"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145320539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102999
José Pedro Lopes
{"title":"The unfulfilled promises of upward mobility and support for radical left parties in Western Europe","authors":"José Pedro Lopes","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102999","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102999","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent decades, educational expansion has produced a large swathe of university graduates which labour markets are increasingly less able to absorb or pay adequately. As a result, they experience frustration from the unfulfilled promises of upward mobility. In this article, I contend that this experience of incomplete upward mobility is driving support for Radical Left Parties (RLPs) in Europe. Drawing on European Social Survey data, focusing on a sample of 24 RLPs in 15 Western European countries during a 15-year period (2008–2023), I explore how education mobility, class mobility and income interact in explaining radical left support. I find that radical left support increases for those who study more than their parents and do not achieve upward class mobility, as well as for those who experience upward class mobility but continue to struggle financially.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 102999"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-28DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103004
Yuya Endo, Yoshikuni Ono
{"title":"Emphasizing or downplaying political ambitions: Exploring the role of candidate gender in shaping voter perceptions","authors":"Yuya Endo, Yoshikuni Ono","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do male and female candidates benefit equally from disclosing their political ambition during electoral campaigns? While candidates for elective office are typically ambitious, voters may not reward female candidates to the same extent as male candidates for openly expressing such ambition. This may be because prevalent stereotypes portray women as modest and reserved, potentially clashing with the ostensibly masculine traits associated with political office. To examine this issue, we conducted a vignette experiment in Japan in which we randomly varied a candidate’s gender and stated motivation for seeking office. Our findings reveal that disclosing political ambitions, when framed as a personal choice, benefits both male and female candidates. However, male candidates who openly display ambition are perceived as more popular among the public, whereas female candidates do not receive the same benefit—even though they are rated as equally likable. This subtle disadvantage points to a nuanced gender bias mechanism: rather than stemming from direct voter disapproval, it arises from second-order beliefs that ambitious female candidates are less likely to attract broad voter support. Such perceptions may constrain women’s electoral success, deter them from openly expressing ambition, and reinforce gender disparities in political representation. These results suggest that efforts to reduce gender gaps in political leadership must address not only overt stereotypes but also voters’ perceptions of the electoral viability of ambitious female candidates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103004"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145415967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-29DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103006
Federico Trastulli
{"title":"Left parties’ strategies and working-class vote in contemporary Western Europe (2002–2020)","authors":"Federico Trastulli","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>What should the left do strategically to retain workers' vote? This paper provides extensive empirical evidence on the relationship between left parties' different programmatic strategies and workers' electoral support in 19 Western European countries over the past 2 decades (2002–2020), focussing on economic and cultural positions, salience, and party-system polarisation. Multilevel analyses of ESS data show that, most of all, working-class respondents' probability of voting for a left party has been significantly higher in contemporary Western Europe when such parties put greater emphasis on cultural issues, regardless of position. The left's engagement with increasingly important cultural matters is rewarded by working-class voters, rather than seen as compromising on its class roots. Whilst this finding applies across left parties, more disaggregated analyses show that support for social democratic parties is considerably more sensitive to different supply-side strategies than support for radical left parties: i.e., both on cultural and economic issues.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103006"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145415966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electoral StudiesPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-16DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103003
Ursula Daxecker, Neeraj Prasad
{"title":"Preaching to the converted: Misinformation and voter preferences in election campaigns","authors":"Ursula Daxecker, Neeraj Prasad","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Politicians frequently sponsor misinformation during election campaigns, but its effectiveness in shifting voters' policy preferences and beliefs remains unclear. We argue that the efficacy of campaign misinformation depends on whether it latches onto partisan or non-partisan identities. Misinformation that primes non-partisan but politically relevant social identities could appeal to voters sharing these social identities, potentially moving supporters and non-supporters closer to the issue position of the sponsor of misinformation. If, on the other hand, misinformation is processed along partisan lines, it appeals only to existing supporters. Our empirical analysis is based on a pre-registered vignette experiment embedded in a representative post-election survey in India. Our design mimics the opposition's use of campaign misinformation to polarize voters' preferences and beliefs on issues of religion. We find that misinformation was only partly effective. While some co-partisans increased their support of the policy position advocated by the misinformer, messages failed to persuade non-supporters, and were easily corrected among co-partisans. We demonstrate the broader relevance of these results with a replication of campaign misinformation in the United States.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103003"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145320537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}