Journal of Behavioral Decision Making最新文献_第10页

Guessing, math, or something else? Lay people's processes for valuing annuities 猜，数学，还是别的?非专业人士评估年金价值的过程

IF 2 3区心理学

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Pub Date : 2023-01-10 DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2316

Thomas Post

{"title":"Guessing, math, or something else? Lay people's processes for valuing annuities","authors":"Thomas Post","doi":"10.1002/bdm.2316","DOIUrl":"10.1002/bdm.2316","url":null,"abstract":"Researchers have long been trying to understand why individuals dislike annuities. Here, we investigate if the process individuals use to assess the financial value of annuities may lead them to inaccurately value annuities. In Study 1, participants were asked to assess the monthly payments associated with a specific annuity lump sum or the annuity lump sum associated with a specific monthly payment. They were then asked to describe how they arrived at their answers. We find that when making this assessment, 42% of participants report attempts at using math, with some even describing mathematical formulas. Most other participants reported guessing instead. Reporting attempts at math is more common among participants with higher financial literacy and numeracy. Reported attempts at math, financial literacy, and numeracy predict arriving at more realistic financial values for annuities, as well as incorporating assessments of life expectancy in the math. Based on this process knowledge, we then designed an experiment in Study 2 and tested the effect of presenting information about life expectancy, providing feedback about payouts or their combination. We find that we can thereby change the assessed financial value of annuities and increase participants' interest in annuities, especially among participants that reported attempts at using math. Understanding the processes individuals use to assess the value of annuities informs theory and practice.","PeriodicalId":48112,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48556199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How the anchor moves: Measuring and comparing the anchoring bias in autistic and neurotypical individuals 锚如何移动:测量和比较自闭症和神经正常个体的锚定偏差

IF 2 3区心理学

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Pub Date : 2023-01-05 DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2317

Nicky Rogge

引用次数: 0

Enhancing and weakening conformity in third-party punishment: The role of empathic concern 第三方惩罚中从众行为的增强和减弱:共情关注的作用

IF 2 3区心理学

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-12-14 DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2315

Honghong Tang, Ruida Zhu, Zilu Liang, Sihui Zhang, Song Su, Chao Liu

{"title":"Enhancing and weakening conformity in third-party punishment: The role of empathic concern","authors":"Honghong Tang, Ruida Zhu, Zilu Liang, Sihui Zhang, Song Su, Chao Liu","doi":"10.1002/bdm.2315","DOIUrl":"10.1002/bdm.2315","url":null,"abstract":"Conformity—shifting one's behavior patterns towards group norms—is both common and powerful. Prior research shows that conformity can drive behavioral patterns towards both positive and negative outcomes (e.g., environmentalism vs. anti-environmentalism). However, we know little about conformity in response to sanctions for norm violations. This research explores conformity in punishment for norm violations and how this behavior is enhanced or weakened by empathic concern (N = 1108). The participants acted as third parties to punish unfairness either in a third-party punishment game or in lifelike unfair allocation scenarios. They behaved in a group where other members inflicted either high or low punishment on the unfair proposers. The results of this study show that the participants conformed to both the high-punishment norm and the low-punishment norm, and their conformity persisted after removing the group context (Studies 1A and 1B). Studies 2A and 2B show that evoking empathic concern towards recipients (victims) in unfair situations increased the punishment of the dictator and diminished conformity to the low-punishment norm. Study 3 shows that the enhancement effect of empathic concern on conformity when embedded in the high-punishment norm strengthened over time, whereas the weakening effect of empathic concern on conformity among those representing a low-punishment norm declined over time. These findings extend the understanding of conformity and the role of emotion in this behavior, with the potential for conformity-modulating interventions.","PeriodicalId":48112,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43766302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Self-control is negatively linked to prosociality in young children 幼儿的自我控制与亲社会性呈负相关

IF 2 3区心理学

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-12-13 DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2314

Gladys Barragan-Jason, Astrid Hopfensitz

引用次数: 0

Fear and promise of the unknown: How losses discourage and promote exploration 未知的恐惧和承诺：损失如何阻碍和促进探索

IF 2 3区心理学

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-12-08 DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2309

Alycia Chin, David Hagmann, George Loewenstein

引用次数: 0

Measurement effects in decision-making 决策中的衡量效果

IF 2 3区心理学

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-12-08 DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2311

Devin M. Burns, Charlotte Hohnemann

引用次数: 0

Looking up or down on the social ladder: How socioeconomic comparisons shape judgments about monetary and time donations 在社会阶梯上向上或向下看:社会经济比较如何影响对金钱和时间捐赠的判断

IF 2 3区心理学

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2308

Rafael Demczuk, Danielle Mantovani, Daniel Fernandes

{"title":"Looking up or down on the social ladder: How socioeconomic comparisons shape judgments about monetary and time donations","authors":"Rafael Demczuk, Danielle Mantovani, Daniel Fernandes","doi":"10.1002/bdm.2308","DOIUrl":"10.1002/bdm.2308","url":null,"abstract":"The increasing inequality rate within countries worldwide makes social comparisons more evident. In seven experiments, we demonstrate that people comparing themselves to others in a superior socioeconomic position (upward comparison) judge that wealthier others should donate more time and money to charity. However, social comparison to others in an inferior position (downward comparison) does not always increase monetary donations. This discrepancy in prescriptions for monetary donations between those who make upward and downward social comparisons is driven by judgments about relative spare money; while people making upward comparisons believe that others have more spare money, people making downward comparisons only think they have more spare money, and should donate more, when reminded of their hierarchical position at the time of judgment. Low meritocracy beliefs exacerbate the difference between the prescriptions of how much oneself and others should donate given their socioeconomic position. This differential pattern among individuals making upward and downward social comparisons helps to propagate economic inequality. People making upward comparisons prescribe to wealthier others the responsibility to donate to charity, who in turn may not think they should donate more money. These findings have implications for charitable and non-profit organizations and contribute to research on social comparison, inequality, and judgments about monetary and time donations.","PeriodicalId":48112,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/bdm.2308","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46168818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Making molehills out of mountains: Removing moral meaning from prior immoral actions 小题大做:从先前的不道德行为中去除道德意义

IF 2 3区心理学

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-12-04 DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2310

Chelsea Helion, Adrian Ward, Ian O'Shea, David Pizarro

引用次数: 0

Meta-informational cue inconsistency and judgment of information accuracy: Spotlight on intelligence analysis 元信息线索不一致性与信息准确性判断——情报分析研究热点

IF 2 3区心理学

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-11-08 DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2307

David R. Mandel, Daniel Irwin, Mandeep K. Dhami, David V. Budescu

{"title":"Meta-informational cue inconsistency and judgment of information accuracy: Spotlight on intelligence analysis","authors":"David R. Mandel, Daniel Irwin, Mandeep K. Dhami, David V. Budescu","doi":"10.1002/bdm.2307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2307","url":null,"abstract":"Meta-information is information about information that can be used as cues to guide judgments and decisions. Three types of meta-information that are routinely used in intelligence analysis are source reliability, information credibility, and classification level. The first two cues are intended to speak to information quality (in particular, the probability that the information is accurate), and classification level is intended to describe the information's security sensitivity. Two experiments involving professional intelligence analysts (N = 25 and 27, respectively) manipulated meta-information in a 6 (source reliability) × 6 (information credibility) × 2 (classification) repeated-measures design. Ten additional items were retested to measure intra-individual reliability. Analysts judged the probability of information accuracy based on its meta-informational profile. In both experiments, the judged probability of information accuracy was sensitive to ordinal position on the scales and the directionality of linguistic terms used to anchor the levels of the two scales. Directionality led analysts to group the first three levels of each scale in a positive group and the fourth and fifth levels in a negative group, with the neutral term “cannot be judged” falling between these groups. Critically, as reliability and credibility cue inconsistency increased, there was a corresponding decrease in intra-analyst reliability, interanalyst agreement, and effective cue utilization. Neither experiment found a significant effect of classification on probability judgments.","PeriodicalId":48112,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/bdm.2307","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50125198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Calibration of scientific reasoning ability 科学推理能力的校准

IF 2 3区心理学

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-11-04 DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2306

Caitlin Drummond Otten, Baruch Fischhoff

{"title":"Calibration of scientific reasoning ability","authors":"Caitlin Drummond Otten, Baruch Fischhoff","doi":"10.1002/bdm.2306","DOIUrl":"10.1002/bdm.2306","url":null,"abstract":"Scientific reasoning ability, the ability to reason critically about the quality of scientific evidence, can help laypeople use scientific evidence when making judgments and decisions. We ask whether individuals with greater scientific reasoning ability are also better calibrated with respect to their ability, comparing calibration for skill with the more widely studied calibration for knowledge. In three studies, participants (Study 1: N = 1022; Study 2: N = 101; and Study 3: N = 332) took the Scientific Reasoning Scale (SRS; Drummond & Fischhoff, 2017), comprised of 11 true–false problems, and provided confidence ratings for each problem. Overall, participants were overconfident, reporting mean confidence levels that were 22.4–25% higher than their percentages of correct answers; calibration improved with score. Study 2 found similar calibration patterns for the SRS and another skill, the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT), measuring the ability to avoid intuitive but incorrect answers. SRS and CRT scores were both associated with success at avoiding negative decision outcomes, as measured by the Decision Outcomes Inventory; confidence on the SRS, above and beyond scores, predicted worse outcomes. Study 3 added an alternative measure of calibration, asking participants to estimate the number of items answered correctly. Participants were less overconfident by this measure. SRS scores predicted correct usage of scientific information in a drug facts box task and holding beliefs consistent with the scientific consensus on controversial issues; confidence, above and beyond SRS scores, predicted worse drug facts box performance but stronger science-consistent beliefs. We discuss the implications of our findings for improving science-relevant decision-making.","PeriodicalId":48112,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/bdm.2306","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43099616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0