Population Space and Place最新文献

{"title":"Staying or Moving? Aspirations, Constraints and Residential Intentions in Italy's Major Urban Regions of Rome and Milan: Convergent Mechanisms and Divergent Motivations","authors":"Massimiliano Crisci, Stefania M. L. Rimoldi, Alessandro Coppola, Silvia Lucciarini","doi":"10.1002/psp.70382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.70382","url":null,"abstract":"Residential mobility is a key mechanism of urban socio‐spatial change, yet less attention has been paid to the formation of mobility intention preceding actual moves, particularly in Southern European contexts. This paper investigates the socio‐economic, demographic, housing and neighbourhood factors associated with residential mobility intentions in Italy's two main urban regions, Rome and Milan, together with respondents' stated motivations for prospective mobility and immobility. Drawing on data from the 2025 MetroMosaic Survey, we use logistic regression models to assess whether established correlates of mobility intentions operate differently across two metropolitan contexts that share the same national housing system but have followed divergent socioeconomic and housing‐market trajectories. Results show substantial convergence between Rome and Milan: education, employment instability, housing tenure and adequacy, household composition and neighbourhood dissatisfaction are associated with mobility intentions in broadly similar ways. Greater differentiation emerges in stated motivations, with significant differences between the two urban regions concentrated in involuntary/forced and neighbourhood‐related reasons. Overall, the findings suggest that shared institutional conditions structure the opportunities and constraints underlying residential intentions, while contrasting metropolitan contexts emerge in some of the reasons associated with moving or staying. The study highlights the value of residential intentions for understanding how aspirations, resources and constraints interact before residential mobility is realised.","PeriodicalId":48067,"journal":{"name":"Population Space and Place","volume":"68 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149199027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Divergent Paths of US Counties: Multiscale Drivers and Spatial Dynamics of Population Growth and Decline (2010−2020)","authors":"Mohammadreza Gholami Gowhareh","doi":"10.1002/psp.70387","DOIUrl":"10.1002/psp.70387","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Population change across US counties has taken sharply different paths, with some areas experiencing steady growth while others face persistent decline. These trends are not random; they reflect deeper shifts in the economy and uneven regional development. This study contributes to demographic and regional research by treating population growth and decline as two distinct demographic regimes, each influenced by its own set of factors. We examine which factors are associated with county-level population change in the United States from 2010 to 2020, using data from 3130 counties with complete records across all explanatory variables, compiled from the American Community Survey, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and fiscal records. To capture both overall patterns and local variations, we combine standard regression methods (OLS, spatial lag and spatial error models) with Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR). Counties are explicitly divided into growing (<i>N</i> = 1548) and shrinking (<i>N</i> = 1582) groups, with models estimated separately for each. The findings show a moderate but consistent asymmetry between growth and decline. Declining counties tend to cluster together and are associated with consistent factors such as aging populations, weak labour markets, reliance on agriculture and, to a more limited extent, housing tenure. Growth, on the other hand, is more spatially variable and localized. It is associated with an agricultural employment structure operating at a broad scale, while natural increase and tax burden exhibit highly localized associations, and housing tenure shows a broader but uneven association. MGWR provides a substantially better fit than global models in both cases (<i>R</i>² = 0.546 for growing counties and 0.595 for shrinking counties, compared with 0.043 and 0.150 under standard OLS), highlighting that population change is a complex, multiscale process. Understanding these spatial patterns is crucial for developing policies and planning strategies that are sensitive to local conditions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48067,"journal":{"name":"Population Space and Place","volume":"32 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149172860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Escalators, not Equalisers: Core-City Premiums in Intergenerational Social Mobility in China","authors":"Yiyue Huangfu,&nbsp;Haiyan Hao,&nbsp;Hongli Liang","doi":"10.1002/psp.70383","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.70383","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Do large cities promote intergenerational mobility? Existing evidence comes almost exclusively from developed societies, where urbanisation largely preceded metropolitan concentration. In rapidly developing contexts, these two processes unfold together, making it unclear whether large cities confer mobility advantages beyond urbanisation itself. This study disentangles these forces using pooled data from the 2014, 2016 and 2018 China Labour-force Dynamics Survey. Comparing intergenerational occupational mobility across rural areas, non-core cities, and core cities, defined as municipalities, provincial capitals, and sub-provincial cities, we find a metropolitan mobility premium in absolute terms. In China, core-city residence is associated with substantially higher absolute mobility (an escalator effect) but does not weaken intergenerational persistence (no equaliser effect). This escalator premium is evident among rural-origin migrants, the in-situ urbanised, and urban locals, is smaller and not statistically significant among urban-origin migrants, and is largely attenuated after accounting for educational attainment and hukou incorporation. These findings caution against equating rising mobility with expanding equality of opportunity. In developing contexts, large cities may accelerate structural upgrading while leaving the intergenerational transmission of advantage intact.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48067,"journal":{"name":"Population Space and Place","volume":"32 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149145993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Anticipating Denied Futures: Temporalities of Protracted Refuge Among Congolese in Kampala","authors":"Alessandro Gusman","doi":"10.1002/psp.70384","DOIUrl":"10.1002/psp.70384","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article develops a temporal perspective on protracted displacement by analysing the experiences of Congolese refugees in Kampala. It argues that displacement is both a spatial and a temporal condition, in which asylum and resettlement regimes are experienced as dispossessing refugees of their capacity to orient themselves toward the future. Drawing on longitudinal ethnographic research (2013–2025), the study traces the shift from initial expectations of rapid resettlement—imagined as a linear trajectory from Congo to Uganda to the Global North—to what many describe as a “life without a future.” This form of temporal dispossession shows how humanitarian and state regimes are experienced as governing not only mobility, but also refugees' capacity to imagine and inhabit the future. The article makes two main contributions to debates in migration and displacement studies. First, it contributes to the temporal turn in migration studies by distinguishing denied futurity from “waiting”: the collapse of future imaginaries reveals a condition in which waiting itself becomes difficult to sustain. Second, it highlights the ambivalent role of Pentecostal and Charismatic Christianity as a key arena of temporal reorientation. Religious narratives of “God's plan” reinstate teleology and sustain traces of futurity, while also functioning as vernacular critiques of humanitarian failure; yet they may simultaneously reproduce forms of deferred hope. Ultimately, the article demonstrates that time is a key terrain of governance, dispossession, and contestation in protracted displacement. By foregrounding the ambivalent role of faith, it shows how Congolese refugees negotiate temporal agency when institutional pathways have foreclosed the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":48067,"journal":{"name":"Population Space and Place","volume":"32 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/psp.70384","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149093411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Settled or Unsettled? Linking Migration Trajectories From Adolescence to Young Adulthood and Their Social Correlates in the United Kingdom","authors":"Xiuxiang Pan,&nbsp;Tim F. Liao","doi":"10.1002/psp.70379","DOIUrl":"10.1002/psp.70379","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Early-life migration can shape subsequent migration, but how migration patterns in young adulthood resemble or differ from those in adolescence remains unclear. This study examines cross-phase migration trajectory linkedness between adolescence (ages 13–17) and young adulthood (ages 21–25), and the social conditions under which such linkedness takes different forms. Using the British Household Panel Survey and its successor, Understanding Society (<i>N</i> = 478), we construct annual migration sequences incorporating frequency, timing and distance, and quantify their resemblance using dyadic sequence analysis. The analysis identifies both resemblance and contrast in cross-phase linkedness between adolescent and young-adult migration. Resemblance is dominated by sustained immobility across both life phases, whereas contrast reflects divergence between the two phases, most often from immobility in adolescence to mobility in young adulthood. Regression analyses suggest that early marriage is associated with a lower likelihood of sustained immobility across both phases, whereas adolescent residence in London–South East is associated with a higher likelihood of this pattern. Being female and living in owner-occupied housing during adolescence are both associated with the pattern of an immobile adolescence followed by a mobile young adulthood. The main findings are broadly robust to alternative classification schemes. Together, these trajectory-level patterns caution against assuming that changes in mobility at one life stage translate uniformly into longer-term internal migration trends.</p>","PeriodicalId":48067,"journal":{"name":"Population Space and Place","volume":"32 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/psp.70379","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149093449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"School Choice Regulation and Fertility: Evidence From China's Multi-School Zoning Policy in Compulsory Education","authors":"Lei He,&nbsp;Qingfei Meng","doi":"10.1002/psp.70381","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.70381","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>School admission rules in compulsory education are a key determinant of both educational equity and household child-rearing costs. China's multi-school zoning (MSZ) policy is a core reform aimed at equalizing access to quality compulsory education. It replaces residence-based school assignment with random allocation within expanded attendance districts and has been rolled out across provinces on a staggered schedule, yet its causal impact on household fertility decisions remains largely underexplored. Using individual-level data from the 2010–2020 China Family Panel Studies and exploiting the staggered rollout of the policy with a difference-in-differences design, we estimate the causal effect of the MSZ policy on individual fertility. We find robust evidence that this education equalization policy significantly increases fertility, raising the individual probability of childbirth by approximately 2 percentage points. Mechanism tests identify two primary channels underlying the pro-fertility effect, namely alleviation of housing cost burdens and reduction in expected long-term intensity of educational competition. We further document substantial heterogeneity in policy effects across both individual and regional dimensions. At the individual level, the fertility-promoting effect is attenuated among women aged over 35 and those with tertiary education. At the regional level, the pro-fertility effect is significantly weaker in provinces with stronger clan cultures and lower pre-policy housing prices.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48067,"journal":{"name":"Population Space and Place","volume":"32 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149140474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From Entry to Embeddedness: How Urban-to-Rural Newcomers Reshape Development Outcomes in Peri-Urban China","authors":"Pingyang Liu","doi":"10.1002/psp.70374","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.70374","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Rural digitalisation expands access to information and participatory channels, but greater digital provision does not necessarily produce equal opportunities to participate. Less is known about whether local governing arrangements compensate for digital disadvantage or instead increase the participatory returns to greater digital capability across different governance tasks. Using face-to-face survey data from 616 residents in 19 peri-urban villages in Shanghai, China, this study examines institutional participation, voluntary community service and willingness to participate in village-based economic development. Three differentiated patterns emerge. Intensive face-to-face governance attenuates the negative digital-capability gradient in village-level decision-making, although the evidence remains suggestive; the same governance mode more clearly compensates for limited digital capability in voluntary community service. Most robustly, the regulatory influence of village rules strengthens the relationship between independent online information-search capability and willingness to participate in local economic development. Cross-domain tests reveal no comparable conditioning patterns. The findings show that governance arrangements that facilitate participation need not reduce participation inequality: their distributive consequences depend on the organisational requirements of the participation task. In Chinese village governance, digitalisation therefore operates through, rather than independently of, relational and informal institutional arrangements that shape who can convert digital resources into participation across different governance tasks.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48067,"journal":{"name":"Population Space and Place","volume":"32 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149048345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Places of Opportunity? The Role of Neighbourhood Socioeconomic Advantage on Upper Secondary Education Attainment Among Young Descendants of Immigrants in Denmark","authors":"Andreas Lindegaard Jakobsen,&nbsp;Anja Jørgensen","doi":"10.1002/psp.70378","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.70378","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The integration of immigrants and their descendants has long been central to European and OECD policy agendas, with educational attainment considered a key indicator of integration success. Yet, persistent native-immigrant gaps in educational attainment remain evident, including in the Nordic countries. Understanding how social determinants such as neighbourhood conditions may shape educational outcomes is therefore important. While neighbourhood-effects research has traditionally mainly focused on the negative consequences of poverty and deprivation, growing attention has been directed towards the potential role of concentrated socioeconomic resources and neighbourhood advantage. However, relatively little research has examined these associations among descendants of immigrants. This study investigates the association between neighbourhood socioeconomic advantage during adolescence (ages 10–15) and upper secondary education attainment in emerging adulthood (ages 20–25) among descendants of immigrants in Denmark. Using longitudinal population register data on 26,697 individuals nested within 2701 neighbourhoods and analyzed using multilevel logistic regression, we examine whether adolescents living in more socioeconomically advantaged neighbourhoods are more likely to complete upper secondary education. The findings indicate that descendants of immigrants from the most socioeconomically advantaged neighbourhoods are more likely to complete upper secondary education than those from less advantaged neighbourhoods. The association is substantially attenuated but remained after adjustment for a wide range of individual, family and neighbourhood covariates. Overall, the findings suggest that neighbourhood socioeconomic resources may contribute to educational attainment among descendants of immigrants and should be considered alongside family and individual factors when addressing educational inequalities.</p>","PeriodicalId":48067,"journal":{"name":"Population Space and Place","volume":"32 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/psp.70378","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149048346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geographical Mobility and Occupational Achievement: Examining the Role of Italian Cities as «Escalator» Regions","authors":"Rocco Molinari,&nbsp;Roberto Impicciatore,&nbsp;Nazareno Panichella","doi":"10.1002/psp.70377","DOIUrl":"10.1002/psp.70377","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the relationship between geographical mobility and occupational achievement focusing on internal migration processes that occurred in the second half of the 20th century in Italy. Using retrospective information from the Italian Household Longitudinal Survey (IHLS), the study clarifies whether certain destinations, particularly large urban centres in central and northern Italy, provide inter-regional migrants with systematic occupational advantages, enabling migrants to attain higher-status positions after relocating. Findings reveal that migrants to large cities in central and northern Italy achieve, on average, higher occupational standings compared to stayers in the area of origin, with strong differences by gender and geographical area of origin. Furthermore, the occupational advantage associated with migration to large cities substantially varies by social class of origin, suggesting the interrelation between urban escalators and the intergenerational transmission of social inequalities.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48067,"journal":{"name":"Population Space and Place","volume":"32 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149009783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Friend and Neighbour Ties Among Unpartnered, Childless and ‘Kinless’ Older Adults in Europe","authors":"Christine A. Mair","doi":"10.1002/psp.70368","DOIUrl":"10.1002/psp.70368","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Declining fertility, increased geographic mobility and changes in nuclear families have contributed to the rise of older adults who are unpartnered, childless or both unpartnered and childless (‘kinless’). For this growing global population, non-family ties such as friends and neighbours may be particularly important. Although often conflated, friends and neighbours represent distinct ties that often provide different resources, with neighbours being geographically proximal and friends being geographically flexible. Yet, very few cross-national studies distinguish between friends and neighbours, and no study to date has examined these ties among older adults with limited family availability cross-nationally. To address this gap, I analyze social network data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (Wave 6; <i>N</i> = 56,093 respondents across 17 countries) and country-level indicators from multiple sources. Using multivariable logistic regression models, I examine whether older adults lacking partners and/or children are more likely to list a friend compared to a neighbour in their discussion networks and explore how these patterns vary across macro-level contexts. Lacking family is associated with greater reliance on non-family ties, and friend ties are substantially more common than neighbour ties in all countries and contexts. Friend ties are particularly more common for kinless older adults in Northern and Western Europe, especially in higher-GDP contexts. Although neighbour ties are much less common overall, they are more pronounced in lower-GDP and Southern European contexts. These findings highlight heterogeneity in later-life support systems and underscore the importance of both geographically-bounded and geographically-flexible support ties to promote ‘aging in place’ and ‘aging in networks’, respectively.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48067,"journal":{"name":"Population Space and Place","volume":"32 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149009782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}