发布求助
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
Choice under uncertainty and cognitive load 不确定性和认知负荷下的选择
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-024-09426-6
{"title":"Choice under uncertainty and cognitive load","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s11166-024-09426-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09426-6","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>Does exposure to cognitive load affect key properties of economic behavior? In this experiment, subjects face a series of simple binary decision tasks between prospects, testing for monotonicity in monetary payments, consistency with (first-order) stochastic dominance, reduction of compound lotteries, risk attitudes, and ambiguity attitudes. Cognitive load is manipulated via simultaneous memory tasks. Our data show treatment differences resulting from cognitive load for decision tasks with risky outcomes. However, cognitive load has no impact on monotonicity and ambiguity attitudes. Under a dual-process view of human decision-making, our findings suggest that ambiguity attitudes and preferences for “more certain money” are intuitive, not reasoned.</p>","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140147991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are physicians rational under ambiguity? 医生在模棱两可的情况下是否理性？
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09425-z
Yu Gao, Zhenxing Huang, Ning Liu, Jia Yang
{"title":"Are physicians rational under ambiguity?","authors":"Yu Gao, Zhenxing Huang, Ning Liu, Jia Yang","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09425-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09425-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Do physicians behave rationally when facing a new disease? This study assesses physicians’ ambiguity attitudes towards the future severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in its early stages and the financial market in the US using an incentive-compatible online experiment. Our findings indicate that physicians demonstrate significant deviations from expected utility, characterized by a modest degree of ambiguity aversion and pronounced levels of likelihood insensitivity. While physicians generally show less insensitivity to uncertainty compared to the general public, both groups exhibited similar levels of irrationality when dealing with the ambiguity surrounding the COVID-19 severity. These results underscore the necessity for debiasing strategies among medical professionals, especially in managing real-world uncertainties, with a specific focus on mitigating likelihood insensitivity.</p>","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140018343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Menu-dependent risk attitudes: Theory and evidence 依赖菜单的风险态度：理论与证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09423-1
Zhuo Chen, Russell Golman, Jason Somerville
{"title":"Menu-dependent risk attitudes: Theory and evidence","authors":"Zhuo Chen, Russell Golman, Jason Somerville","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09423-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09423-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We test for a novel pattern of menu-dependent risk attitudes that forms the basis of recent theories of risky choice: Does expanding the range of potential prizes from lotteries in a choice set lead people to overweight those prizes and make riskier choices? Contrary to our hypothesis, we find no evidence of such a menu effect. Varying the potential prize offered by an actuarially unfavorable, high-risk lottery does not affect the likelihood of choosing a different, moderate-risk gamble in favor of a safer alternative. Our well-powered null results cast doubt on prominent theories of menu-dependent risk preferences.</p>","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140005078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
COVID-19 vaccine and risk-taking COVID-19 疫苗和冒险行为
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09424-0
Shanike J. Smart, Solomon W. Polachek
{"title":"COVID-19 vaccine and risk-taking","authors":"Shanike J. Smart, Solomon W. Polachek","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09424-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09424-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We assess whether the COVID-19 vaccine induces COVID-19 risky behavior (e.g., going to bars and restaurants) and thus reduces vaccine efficacy. A key empirical challenge is the endogeneity bias when comparing risk-taking by vaccination status since people choose whether to get vaccinated. To address this bias, we exploit rich survey panel data on individuals followed before and after vaccine availability over fourteen months in an event study fixed effects model with individual, time, sector, and county-by-time fixed effects and inverse propensity weights. We find evidence that vaccinated persons, regardless of the timing of vaccination, increase their risk-taking activities. The evidence is consistent with the “lulling effect”. While vaccine availability may reduce the risk of contracting COVID-19, it also contributes to further spread of the virus by incentivizing risk-taking in the short term.</p>","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139950210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A double-bounded risk-risk trade-off analysis of heatwave-related mortality risk: Evidence from India 热浪相关死亡风险的双重风险权衡分析：印度的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-02-19 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09422-2
{"title":"A double-bounded risk-risk trade-off analysis of heatwave-related mortality risk: Evidence from India","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09422-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09422-2","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>As climate variability is increasing, extreme events such as temperature fluctuations are expected to become more frequent. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are especially vulnerable to heat-related variability and its ensuing impacts on mortality. Therefore, there is an urgent need to understand how citizens in LMICs trade-off climate-related mortality risks with other risks such as traffic accidents, and what values they place on reducing such risks. As populations in LMICs are income-constrained, we adopt a non-monetary, risk-risk trade-off (RRTO) valuation method instead of the standard willingness-to-pay stated preference-based approach. We estimate the resulting risk premium for heatwave-related mortality risks through an adapted double-bounded, dichotomous choice approach to establish whether, on average, people value avoiding these risks more compared to reducing traffic risks. Using a sample of over 2,300 individuals from across seven states in India, a country with one of the highest heat-related mortality globally, we estimate the heatwave risk mortality premium to be between 2.2–2.9, indicating that on average, individuals weigh reducing heatwave-related mortality risks more than two times that of reducing traffic accident mortality risks. Based on a standard benefit transfer methodology for LMICs, this premium translates to a Value of Statistical Life (VSL) of USD 0.37–2.61 million for India.</p>","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139911111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ambiguity attitudes toward natural and artificial sources in gain and loss domains 在收益和损失领域对自然和人工来源的模糊态度
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09420-4
Masahide Watanabe, Toshio Fujimi
{"title":"Ambiguity attitudes toward natural and artificial sources in gain and loss domains","authors":"Masahide Watanabe, Toshio Fujimi","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09420-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09420-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this study, we compare ambiguity attitudes—ambiguity aversion and ambiguity-generated insensitivity (a-insensitivity)—toward natural and artificial sources of ambiguity in gain and loss domains with the participation of individuals with various attributes. In our experiment, we use precipitation during the rainy season as a natural source of ambiguity and the Ellsberg-type box as an artificial source. We find that people are more a-insensitive toward the natural source than the artificial source, even though the outcomes are identical. Additionally, people with low cognitive reflection ability are more a-insensitive than those with high cognitive reflection ability. Thus, people with low cognitive reflection ability have more difficulty in identifying likelihood under ambiguity and tend to view the likelihood of all uncertain events to be equal. Furthermore, we examine the relationships between ambiguity attitudes and real-world behaviors with regard to flood preparedness. In the group with high cognitive reflection ability, people with higher a-insensitivity are less likely to adopt flood preparedness behaviors in the gain domain of the natural source. However, we do not find any relationship between ambiguity attitudes and flood preparedness behaviors in the artificial source. Thus, applying ambiguity attitudes toward natural sources is worth considering when explaining real-world behaviors based on ambiguity attitudes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139648000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal e-cigarette policy when preferences and internalities are correlated 偏好和内部因素相关时的最佳电子烟政策
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-01-25 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09419-x
Michael E. Darden
{"title":"Optimal e-cigarette policy when preferences and internalities are correlated","authors":"Michael E. Darden","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09419-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09419-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper studies the policy implications of correlation between preferences and internalities in the context of tobacco products. Using novel survey data, I show that cigarette smokers who misperceive the relative health harms of cigarettes and e-cigarettes—and thus for whom internalities associated with imperfect information are potentially large—are also significantly less likely to respond to changes in relative prices. I build this heterogeneity into a model of cigarette and e-cigarette taxation to show that the relationship between the optimal e-cigarette tax and the mean elasticity of substitution is relatively flat. This is policy relevant because evidence of substitution is thought to suggest low (or even negative) e-cigarette taxes. Even at implausibly large degrees of substitution, simulated optimal e-cigarette taxes are positive and large.</p>","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139588675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The determinants of decision time in an ambiguous context 模糊背景下决策时间的决定因素
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09417-z
Anna Conte, Gianmarco De Santis, John D. Hey, Ivan Soraperra
{"title":"The determinants of decision time in an ambiguous context","authors":"Anna Conte, Gianmarco De Santis, John D. Hey, Ivan Soraperra","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09417-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09417-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper builds on the data from a published paper on behaviour under ambiguity (Conte &amp; Hey, 2013)—henceforth C&amp;H—to explore the determinants of <i>decision time</i>. C&amp;H categorized individual subjects as being of one of four types (of decision-maker)—Expected Utility, Smooth Ambiguity, Rank Dependent and Alpha Expected Utility—by using the <i>decisions</i> of the subjects, but did not look at the <i>decision times</i> of the different types. We take as given the categorization identified by C&amp;H, and explore whether the classification can explain the decision times of the subjects. We investigate whether and why different types take a different amount of time to decide. We explore the effects of various features related to (mainly psychological) theories of the <i>process</i> of decision-making—i.e., experience with the task, complexity, closeness to indifference and similarity of the options. Our results show that different types take a similar time to make their decisions on average, but decision times of different types are explained by different features of the decision task. This paper is the first investigating the heterogeneity of decision times based on a classification of subjects into different types in an ambiguous (rather than risky) decision context.</p>","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139077820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic inconsistency under ambiguity: An experiment 模糊条件下的动态不一致性：一项实验
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-12-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09418-y
Rocco Caferra, John D. Hey, A. Morone, Marco Santorsola
{"title":"Dynamic inconsistency under ambiguity: An experiment","authors":"Rocco Caferra, John D. Hey, A. Morone, Marco Santorsola","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09418-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09418-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138944249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Correction to: Delegated risktaking, accountability, and outcome bias 修正:委托冒险、问责制和结果偏差
2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-11-04 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09416-0
Robert M. Gillenkirch, Louis Velthuis
{"title":"Correction to: Delegated risktaking, accountability, and outcome bias","authors":"Robert M. Gillenkirch, Louis Velthuis","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09416-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09416-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135774736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
首页 上一页 下一页 尾页
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整，为了账户安全，请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们：info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务，方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号：481959085
Book学术官方微信