通过修订揭示风险错误

IF 1.3 2区经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI:10.1007/s11166-024-09429-3

Zachary Breig, Paul Feldman

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们认为，在没有任何信息变化的情况下，被修改的选择会被认为是一个错误。在一项实验中，我们让受试者从二元彩票的预算中进行选择。为了识别错误（我们将其解释为偏离了潜在的 "真实 "偏好），我们允许受试者修改其初始选择的子集。修正后的决策集在几种标准的最优定义下会有所改进。这些错误非常普遍：只要有机会，受试者就会修改 75% 以上的初始选择。在缺乏经验和选择中奖概率较小的彩票时，受试者会犯更大的错误。

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Revealing risky mistakes through revisions

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Revealing risky mistakes through revisions

We argue that a choice that is modified, absent any informational change, is revealed to have been a mistake. In an experiment, we allow subjects to choose from budgets over binary lotteries. To identify mistakes, which we interpret as deviations from an underlying “true” preference, we allow subjects to revise a subset of their initial choices. The set of revised decisions improves under several standard definitions of optimality. These mistakes are prevalent: subjects modify over 75% of their initial choices when given the chance. Subjects make larger mistakes when inexperienced and when choosing over lotteries with small probabilities of winning.

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来源期刊

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Multiple-

CiteScore

6.30

自引率

10.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Risk and Uncertainty (JRU) welcomes original empirical, experimental, and theoretical manuscripts dealing with the analysis of risk-bearing behavior and decision making under uncertainty. The topics covered in the journal include, but are not limited to, decision theory and the economics of uncertainty, experimental investigations of behavior under uncertainty, empirical studies of real world risk-taking behavior, behavioral models of choice under uncertainty, and risk and public policy. Review papers are welcome. The JRU does not publish finance or behavioral finance research, game theory, note length work, or papers that treat Likert-type scales as having cardinal significance. An important aim of the JRU is to encourage interdisciplinary communication and interaction between researchers in the area of risk and uncertainty. Authors are expected to provide introductory discussions which set forth the nature of their research and the interpretation and implications of their findings in a manner accessible to knowledgeable researchers in other disciplines. Officially cited as: J Risk Uncertain