Journal of Risk and Uncertainty最新文献

Subjective beliefs, health, and health behaviors 主观信念、健康和健康行为

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-024-09435-5

Frank A. Sloan

{"title":"Subjective beliefs, health, and health behaviors","authors":"Frank A. Sloan","doi":"10.1007/s11166-024-09435-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09435-5","url":null,"abstract":"This article reviews economic studies based on data from high income countries published from 2007 to early 2024 to address three questions: (1) How accurate are subjective beliefs, mainly measured by subjective probabilities, compared to their objective counterparts? Objective evidence comes from another source (e.g., life table, empirical study, expert opinion), or subsequent realizations of beliefs elicited at baseline. (2) How are subjective beliefs determined? (3) Do subjective beliefs affect health behaviors? Several domains are included: survival, and health behaviors—smoking, alcohol consumption and impaired driving, preventive care, diet, and COVID-19 precautions. Results on a single domain, (e.g., survival), do not generalize to, e.g., COVID-19 results. Subjective probabilities embody private information (e.g., self-assessed health, parent longevity). However, individuals seem insufficiently informed about population-level probabilities. There is no systematic overestimation or underestimation of objective probabilities. Several determinants of beliefs are identified (demographic characteristics, education, cognition, current self-assessed health, health histories), but evidence on underlying mechanisms is lacking, how determinants, (e.g., education), affect beliefs. Subjective beliefs, even with substantial noise, often affect health behaviors. Given prior evidence that beliefs are influenced by health shocks, this article reviews research on effects of health shocks on health behaviors. A major health shock to an individual—a new diagnosis (e.g., diabetes) or a serious adverse health event (e.g., heart attack), by changing subjective probabilities leads to some healthier behaviors, however, sometimes only temporarily. Behaviors may also be influenced by utility loss following a health shock, e.g., learning about pecuniary and non-pecuniary costs of hospitalization.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142180088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Randomization advice and ambiguity aversion 随机化建议和模糊厌恶

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-024-09436-4

Christoph Kuzmics, Brian W. Rogers, Xiannong Zhang

引用次数: 0

The gambler’s fallacy prevails in lottery play 赌徒谬论在彩票游戏中盛行

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-024-09434-6

Brian Dillon, Travis J. Lybbert

引用次数: 0

Are economic preferences shaped by the family context? The relation of birth order and siblings’ gender composition to economic preferences 经济偏好是由家庭环境决定的吗？出生顺序和兄弟姐妹的性别构成与经济偏好的关系

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-024-09433-7

Lena Detlefsen, Andreas Friedl, Katharina Lima de Miranda, Ulrich Schmidt, Matthias Sutter

引用次数: 0

Reference-dependent discounting 参照贴现

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-024-09432-8

Arthur E. Attema, Zhihua Li

{"title":"Reference-dependent discounting","authors":"Arthur E. Attema, Zhihua Li","doi":"10.1007/s11166-024-09432-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09432-8","url":null,"abstract":"Reference-dependence has become a widely established phenomenon in decision making under risk, not only for monetary outcomes but also for other outcomes, e.g., related to health. However, when the prospects involve risk about timing (the time of receipt of outcomes), rather than the outcomes themselves, much less is known about reference-dependence. This study extends discounted utility to incorporate reference-dependence and is the first to test it in timing prospects. We are also the first to estimate the probability weighting function for timing prospects. For both timing and outcome risk tasks, we replicate the typical fourfold pattern of risk attitudes: risk seeking for low-probability gains, risk aversion for high-probability gains, risk aversion for low-probability losses and risk seeking for high-probability losses. In other words, we find substantial pessimism with regard to high probabilities in the gain domain and low probabilities in the loss domain, and probabilistic optimism for low probabilities in the gain domain and high probabilities in the loss domain. Furthermore, we report loss aversion for outcome risks, while for timing risks, we find the opposite result, which we term earliness seeking. In sum, we find substantial empirical support for reference-dependent discounting. Our results show that psychological biases are also important when timing is risky, although the direction of bias may differ.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141871418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Conditional independence in a binary choice experiment 二元选择实验中的条件独立性

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-024-09431-9

Nathaniel T. Wilcox

引用次数: 0

Consciously stochastic in preference reversals 偏好逆转中有意识的随机性

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-024-09430-w

Liu Shi, Jianying Qiu, Jiangyan Li, Frank Bohn

引用次数: 0

Revealing risky mistakes through revisions 通过修订揭示风险错误

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-024-09429-3

Zachary Breig, Paul Feldman

引用次数: 0

Learning from natural disasters: Evidence from enterprise property insurance take-up in China 从自然灾害中学习：中国企业财产保险投保情况的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-024-09428-4

Yugang Ding, Peiyun Deng

引用次数: 0

Does the COVID-19 pandemic change individuals’ risk preference? COVID-19 大流行是否会改变个人的风险偏好？

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-024-09427-5

Tomohide Mineyama, Kiichi Tokuoka

{"title":"Does the COVID-19 pandemic change individuals’ risk preference?","authors":"Tomohide Mineyama, Kiichi Tokuoka","doi":"10.1007/s11166-024-09427-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09427-5","url":null,"abstract":"In this study we exploit not only regional but also age and gender variation in exposure to COVID-19 to investigate its impact on risk tolerance. This study is the first to use age and gender variation in exposure to COVID-19, whereas the identification in previous studies relied on regional variation or simple differencing before and after the pandemic. Using a nationally representative household panel survey in Japan, we find that individuals who were exposed to higher risk of COVID-19, measured by the mortality rate, became more risk-tolerant. The result is in line with findings whereby the experience of standout adverse events and the large resulting losses increase individuals’ risk tolerance. However, the effect appears diminished after the vaccine rollout. An analysis using detailed vaccine records indicates that the vaccination offset the increase in risk tolerance due to the mortality risk, especially for individuals with a higher mortality rate for COVID-19. While the literature on this topic has been inconclusive with a few studies reporting insignificant changes in risk tolerance after the pandemic, our result suggests that granular information on exposure to COVID-19 helps identify its impact.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140325080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0