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Journal of Risk and Uncertainty最新文献

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The representative heuristic and catastrophe-related risk behaviors 具有代表性的启发式与突变相关风险行为
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09324-7
Randy Dumm, David L. Eckles, Charles Nyce, Jacqueline Volkman-Wise
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引用次数: 19
The uncertainty triangle – Uncovering heterogeneity in attitudes towards uncertainty 不确定性三角——揭示对不确定性态度的异质性
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09331-8
Daniel R. Burghart, Thomas Epper, E. Fehr
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引用次数: 5
Broad bracketing for low probability events 对低概率事件进行广泛的覆盖
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-02-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3537938
Shereen J. Chaudhry, M. Hand, H. Kunreuther
{"title":"Broad bracketing for low probability events","authors":"Shereen J. Chaudhry, M. Hand, H. Kunreuther","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3537938","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3537938","url":null,"abstract":"Individuals tend to underprepare for rare, catastrophic events because of biases in risk perception. A simple form of broad bracketing—presenting the cumulative probability of loss over a longer time horizon—has the potential to alleviate these barriers to accurate risk perception and increase protective actions such as purchasing flood insurance. However, it is an open question whether broad bracketing effects last over time: There is evidence that descriptive probability information is ignored when decisions are based on “experience” (repeatedly and in the face of feedback), which characterizes many protective decisions. Across six incentive-compatible experiments with high stakes, we find that the broad bracketing effect does not disappear or change size when decisions are made from experience. We also advance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying broad bracketing, finding that, while cumulative probability size is a strong driver of the effect, this is dampened for larger brackets leading people to be less sensitive to probability size.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"1 1","pages":"1-34"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2020-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47629259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Towards a typology of risk preference: Four risk profiles describe two-thirds of individuals in a large sample of the U.S. population 风险偏好的类型:四种风险概况描述了美国人口大样本中三分之二的个体
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-02-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09398-5
Renato Frey, Shannon Duncan, E. Weber
{"title":"Towards a typology of risk preference: Four risk profiles describe two-thirds of individuals in a large sample of the U.S. population","authors":"Renato Frey, Shannon Duncan, E. Weber","doi":"10.1007/s11166-022-09398-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09398-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"66 1","pages":"1-17"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2020-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47064813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Private security, maritime piracy and the provision of international public safety 私人安全，海盗和提供国际公共安全
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09323-8
Gregory J. DeAngelo, T. Smith
{"title":"Private security, maritime piracy and the provision of international public safety","authors":"Gregory J. DeAngelo, T. Smith","doi":"10.1007/s11166-020-09323-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-020-09323-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"60 1","pages":"77 - 97"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s11166-020-09323-8","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"52529761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Opting out of workers’ compensation: Non-subscription in Texas and its effects 选择退出工人赔偿:德克萨斯州的不订阅及其影响
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09320-x
Lu Jinks, T. Kniesner, John D. Leeth, A. L. Lo Sasso
{"title":"Opting out of workers’ compensation: Non-subscription in Texas and its effects","authors":"Lu Jinks, T. Kniesner, John D. Leeth, A. L. Lo Sasso","doi":"10.1007/s11166-020-09320-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-020-09320-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"60 1","pages":"53 - 76"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s11166-020-09320-x","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"52529740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Risk attitudes and digit ratio (2D:4D): Evidence from prospect theory 风险态度与数字比率(2D:4D):来自前景理论的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09321-w
Levent Neyse, Ferdinand M. Vieider, P. Ring, C. Probst, C. Kaernbach, T. Eimeren, Ulrich Schmidt
{"title":"Risk attitudes and digit ratio (2D:4D): Evidence from prospect theory","authors":"Levent Neyse, Ferdinand M. Vieider, P. Ring, C. Probst, C. Kaernbach, T. Eimeren, Ulrich Schmidt","doi":"10.1007/s11166-020-09321-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-020-09321-w","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"60 1","pages":"29 - 51"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s11166-020-09321-w","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46512672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Thoughts and prayers – Do they crowd out charity donations? 思想和祈祷——他们会排挤慈善捐款吗？
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09322-9
Linda Thunström
{"title":"Thoughts and prayers – Do they crowd out charity donations?","authors":"Linda Thunström","doi":"10.1007/s11166-020-09322-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-020-09322-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"60 1","pages":"1 - 28"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s11166-020-09322-9","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47673630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Pricing the global health risks of the COVID-19 pandemic. 为 COVID-19 大流行病的全球健康风险定价。
IF 1.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Epub Date: 2020-11-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09337-2
W Kip Viscusi
{"title":"Pricing the global health risks of the COVID-19 pandemic.","authors":"W Kip Viscusi","doi":"10.1007/s11166-020-09337-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11166-020-09337-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Policies to address the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) require a balancing of the health risk reductions and the costs of economic dislocations. Application of the value of a statistical life (VSL) to monetize COVID-19 deaths produces a U.S. mortality cost estimate of $1.4 trillion for deaths in the first half of 2020. This article presents worldwide COVID-19 costs for over 100 countries. The total global mortality cost through July 2, 2020 is $3.5 trillion. The United States accounts for 25% of the deaths, but 41% of the mortality cost. Adjustments for the shorter life expectancy and lower income of the victims substantially reduces the estimated monetized losses, but may raise fundamental equity concerns. Morbidity effects of COVID-19 affect many more patients than do the disease's mortality risks. Consideration of the morbidity effects increase the expected health losses associated with COVID-19 illnesses by 10% to 40%.</p>","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"61 2","pages":"101-128"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7604649/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38674026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Valuing mortality risk in the time of COVID-19. 评估COVID-19时期的死亡风险。
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Epub Date: 2020-11-11 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09338-1
James K Hammitt
{"title":"Valuing mortality risk in the time of COVID-19.","authors":"James K Hammitt","doi":"10.1007/s11166-020-09338-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-020-09338-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In evaluating the appropriate response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a key parameter is the rate of substitution between wealth and mortality risk, conventionally summarized as the value per statistical life (VSL). For the United States, VSL is estimated as approximately $10 million, which implies the value of preventing 100,000 COVID-19 deaths is $1 trillion. Is this value too large? There are reasons to think so. First, VSL is a marginal rate of substitution and the potential risk reductions are non-marginal. The standard VSL model implies the rate of substitution of wealth for risk reduction is smaller when the risk reduction is larger, but a closed-form solution calibrated to estimates of the income elasticity of VSL shows the rate of decline is modest until the value of a non-marginal risk reduction accounts for a substantial share of income; average individuals are predicted to be willing to spend more than half their income to reduce one-year mortality risk by 1 in 100. Second, mortality risk is concentrated among the elderly, for whom VSL may be smaller and who would benefit from a persistent risk reduction for a shorter period because of their shorter life expectancy. Third, the pandemic and responses to it have caused substantial losses in income that should decrease VSL. In contrast, VSL is plausibly larger for risks (like COVID-19) that are dreaded, uncertain, catastrophic, and ambiguous. These arguments are evaluated and key issues for improving estimates are highlighted.</p>","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"61 2","pages":"129-154"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s11166-020-09338-1","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38609650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 45
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