Journal of Risk and Uncertainty最新文献_第9页

Efficient Institutions and Effective Deterrence: On Timing and Uncertainty of Formal Sanctions. 高效制度与有效威慑：论正式制裁的时机和不确定性》。

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09352-x

Johannes Buckenmaier, Eugen Dimant, Ann-Christin Posten, Ulrich Schmidt

{"title":"Efficient Institutions and Effective Deterrence: On Timing and Uncertainty of Formal Sanctions.","authors":"Johannes Buckenmaier, Eugen Dimant, Ann-Christin Posten, Ulrich Schmidt","doi":"10.1007/s11166-021-09352-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11166-021-09352-x","url":null,"abstract":"Economic theory suggests that the deterrence of deviant behavior is driven by a combination of severity and certainty of punishment. This paper presents the first controlled experiment to study a third important factor that has been mainly overlooked: the swiftness of formal sanctions. We consider two dimensions: the timing at which the uncertainty about whether one will be punished is dissolved and the timing at which the punishment is actually imposed, as well as the combination thereof. By varying these dimensions of delay systematically, we find a surprising non-monotonic relation with deterrence: either no delay (immediate resolution and immediate punishment) or maximum delay (both resolution and punishment as much as possible delayed) emerge as most effective at deterring deviant behavior and recidivism. Our results yield implications for the design of institutional policies aimed at mitigating misconduct and reducing recidivism.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at doi:10.1007/s11166-021-09352-x.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"62 2","pages":"177-201"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8298200/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39227712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an indoor political rally. 风险规避、社区效应抵消和COVID-19:来自室内政治集会的证据。

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-10-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09359-4

Dhaval Dave, Andrew Friedson, Kyutaro Matsuzawa, Drew McNichols, Connor Redpath, Joseph J Sabia

{"title":"Risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an indoor political rally.","authors":"Dhaval Dave, Andrew Friedson, Kyutaro Matsuzawa, Drew McNichols, Connor Redpath, Joseph J Sabia","doi":"10.1007/s11166-021-09359-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-021-09359-4","url":null,"abstract":"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) deem large indoor gatherings without social distancing the \"highest risk\" activity for COVID-19 contagion. On June 20, 2020, President Donald J. Trump held his first mass campaign rally following the US coronavirus outbreak at the indoor Bank of Oklahoma arena. In the weeks following the event, numerous high-profile national news outlets reported that the Trump rally was \"more than likely\" the cause of a coronavirus surge in Tulsa County based on time series data. This study is the first to rigorously explore the impacts of this event on social distancing and COVID-19 spread. First, using data from SafeGraph Inc, we show that while non-resident visits to census block groups hosting the Trump event grew by approximately 25 percent, there was no decline in net stay-at-home behavior in Tulsa County, reflecting important offsetting behavioral effects. Then, using data on COVID-19 cases from the CDC and a synthetic control design, we find little evidence that COVID-19 grew more rapidly in Tulsa County, its border counties, or in the state of Oklahoma than each's estimated counterfactual during the five-week post-treatment period we observe. Difference-in-differences estimates further provide no evidence that COVID-19 rates grew faster in counties that drew relatively larger shares of residents to the event. We conclude that offsetting risk-related behavioral responses to the rally-including voluntary closures of restaurants and bars in downtown Tulsa, increases in stay-at-home behavior, displacement of usual activities of weekend inflows, and smaller-than-expected crowd attendance-may be important mechanisms.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11166-021-09359-4.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"63 2","pages":"133-167"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8535106/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39578544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Broad bracketing for low probability events 对低概率事件进行广泛的覆盖

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09343-4

Shereen J. Chaudhry, Michael Hand, H. Kunreuther

引用次数: 7

The development of risk aversion and prudence in Chinese children and adolescents 中国儿童和青少年风险厌恶和审慎的发展

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09340-7

Timo Heinrich, Jason M. Shachat

引用次数: 14

Natural disaster and risk-sharing behavior: Evidence from rural Bangladesh 自然灾害和风险分担行为:来自孟加拉国农村的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09334-5

A. Islam, C. Leister, Minhaj Mahmud, P. Raschky

引用次数: 9

Dual choice axiom and probabilistic choice 二元选择公理和概率选择

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09332-7

P. Blavatskyy

引用次数: 2

Risk awareness and adverse selection in catastrophe insurance: Evidence from California’s residential earthquake insurance market 巨灾保险中的风险意识与逆向选择:来自加州居民地震保险市场的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09335-4

Xiao Lin

引用次数: 10

Electronic cigarette risk beliefs and usage after the vaping illness outbreak 电子烟病爆发后的电子烟风险信念与使用

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09328-3

Kip Viscusi

引用次数: 7

The effects of traditional cigarette and e-cigarette tax rates on adult tobacco product use. 传统卷烟和电子烟税率对成人烟草制品使用的影响。

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-06-01 Epub Date: 2020-07-24 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09330-9

Michael F Pesko, Charles J Courtemanche, Johanna Catherine Maclean

引用次数: 0

E-Cigarettes and Adult Smoking: Evidence from Minnesota. 电子烟和成人吸烟:来自明尼苏达州的证据。

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2020-06-01 Epub Date: 2020-07-16 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09326-5

Henry Saffer, Daniel Dench, Michael Grossman, Dhaval Dave

{"title":"E-Cigarettes and Adult Smoking: Evidence from Minnesota.","authors":"Henry Saffer, Daniel Dench, Michael Grossman, Dhaval Dave","doi":"10.1007/s11166-020-09326-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-020-09326-5","url":null,"abstract":"E-cigarettes provide nicotine in a vapor form, which is considered less harmful than the smoke from combustible cigarettes because it does not contain the toxins that are found in tobacco smoke. E-cigarettes may be effective in helping smokers to quit or they might simply provide smokers a method of bypassing smoking restrictions. There is very little causal evidence to date on how e-cigarette use impacts smoking cessation among adults. Minnesota was the first to impose a tax on e-cigarettes. This tax provides a plausibly exogenous deterrent to e-cigarette use. We utilize data from the Current Population Survey Tobacco Use Supplements from 1992 to 2015 to assess how the Minnesota tax increase impacted smoking cessation among adult smokers. Estimates suggest that the e-cigarette tax increased adult smoking and reduced smoking cessation in Minnesota, relative to the control group, and imply a cross elasticity of current smoking participation with respect to e-cigarette prices of 0.13. Our results suggest that in the sample period about 32,400 additional adult smokers would have quit smoking in Minnesota in the absence of the tax. If this tax were imposed on a national level about 1.8 million smokers would be deterred from quitting in a ten year period. The taxation of e-cigarettes at the same rate as cigarettes could deter more than 2.75 million smokers nationally from quitting in the same period. The public health benefits of not taxing e-cigarettes, however, must be weighed against effects of this decision on efforts to reduce vaping by youth.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"60 3","pages":"207-228"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s11166-020-09326-5","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38392247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 37