Revealing risky mistakes through revisions

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI:10.1007/s11166-024-09429-3

Zachary Breig, Paul Feldman

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We argue that a choice that is modified, absent any informational change, is revealed to have been a mistake. In an experiment, we allow subjects to choose from budgets over binary lotteries. To identify mistakes, which we interpret as deviations from an underlying “true” preference, we allow subjects to revise a subset of their initial choices. The set of revised decisions improves under several standard definitions of optimality. These mistakes are prevalent: subjects modify over 75% of their initial choices when given the chance. Subjects make larger mistakes when inexperienced and when choosing over lotteries with small probabilities of winning.

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通过修订揭示风险错误

我们认为，在没有任何信息变化的情况下，被修改的选择会被认为是一个错误。在一项实验中，我们让受试者从二元彩票的预算中进行选择。为了识别错误（我们将其解释为偏离了潜在的 "真实 "偏好），我们允许受试者修改其初始选择的子集。修正后的决策集在几种标准的最优定义下会有所改进。这些错误非常普遍：只要有机会，受试者就会修改 75% 以上的初始选择。在缺乏经验和选择中奖概率较小的彩票时，受试者会犯更大的错误。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.