发布求助
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
Delegated risk-taking, accountability, and outcome bias 委托承担风险、问责制和结果偏差
2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09414-2
Robert M. Gillenkirch, Louis Velthuis
{"title":"Delegated risk-taking, accountability, and outcome bias","authors":"Robert M. Gillenkirch, Louis Velthuis","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09414-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09414-2","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In a sequence of experiments, this study investigates how people evaluate others who make risky decisions on their behalf, and how such evaluations affect delegated risk-taking. A decision maker acts on behalf of a client who holds the decision maker accountable by way of a subjective evaluation after observing a risky decision’s outcome. If evaluation is biased towards the outcome, it may have dysfunctional effects with respect to delegated risk-taking in that decision makers’ risk choices are increasingly misaligned with their clients’ risk preferences. We find evidence giving support to this conjecture. Across and within three experiments, we test for the effects of different types and degrees of accountability in that we manipulate the information available to clients as well as the consequences which evaluations have for decision makers. Evaluations are biased towards outcomes in all experiments. When evaluations affect decision maker’s compensations, a stronger outcome bias in evaluations translates into risk-taking decisions being less frequently aligned with clients’ risk preferences. In the same situation, giving clients the opportunity to make peer comparisons increases outcome bias. We further find that clients do not hold decision makers accountable for their risk choices when they cannot observe the risk-taking decision, but have to infer it from observing the outcome. Theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135825591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
“Injury risk, concussions, race, and pay in the NFL” “NFL的受伤风险、脑震荡、种族和薪酬”
2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-08-08 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09415-1
Quinn A. W. Keefer, Thomas J. Kniesner
{"title":"“Injury risk, concussions, race, and pay in the NFL”","authors":"Quinn A. W. Keefer, Thomas J. Kniesner","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09415-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09415-1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We make two main contributions to the literature on work-related injury risk and economic outcomes in the context of American professional football. One is to examine an increasingly important specific injury, concussions, and compare its subsequent economic effects to those of other types of football injuries. Our other contribution is to study the role of race in understanding injury risk and severity and their resulting economic consequences, which has been overlooked in previous sports injury research. Using a specific position, tight ends, which allows conditioning on fine-grained relevant measures of player demographics, playing time, and performance, we find that whether a player continues to play NFL football from year to year is affected by type of injury and the player’s race. We calculate that the average ex post loss in annual compensation from a concussion is about 7%. Moreover, the effect of games missed due to concussion on continued employment is triple that of other injuries. Being white positively affects length of playing career independent of the measured productivity of the players involved. The racial gap in career length is approximately equal to the effect of an additional game missed from concussion. With respect to heterogeneity in the effects of injuries, both concussions and other injury types affect ex post economic outcomes equally for white and nonwhite players. Both injuries and race affect compensation solely through their effects on career length.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135746374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Learning your own risk preferences 了解自己的风险偏好
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-06-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09413-3
G. Charness, Nir Chemaya, Dario Trujano-Ochoa
{"title":"Learning your own risk preferences","authors":"G. Charness, Nir Chemaya, Dario Trujano-Ochoa","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09413-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09413-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45043330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
On the psychology of the relation between optimism and risk taking 论乐观主义与冒险心理的关系
2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-06-12 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09409-z
Thomas Dohmen, Simone Quercia, Jana Willrodt
{"title":"On the psychology of the relation between optimism and risk taking","authors":"Thomas Dohmen, Simone Quercia, Jana Willrodt","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09409-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09409-z","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, we provide an explanation for why risk taking is related to optimism. Using a laboratory experiment, we show that the degree of optimism predicts whether people tend to focus on the positive or negative outcomes of risky decisions. While optimists tend to focus on the good outcomes, pessimists focus on the bad outcomes of risk. The tendency to focus on good or bad outcomes of risk in turn affects both the self-reported willingness to take risk and actual risk taking behavior. This suggests that dispositional optimism may affect risk taking mainly by shifting attention to specific outcomes rather than causing misperception of probabilities. In a second study we find evidence that dispositional optimism is related to elicited parameters of rank dependent utility theory suggesting that focusing may be among the psychological determinants of decision weights. Finally, we corroborate our findings with process data related to focusing showing that optimists tend to remember more and attend more to good outcomes and this in turn affects their risk taking.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136222920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Ambiguity aversion and the degree of ambiguity 歧义厌恶和歧义程度
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-06-12 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09410-6
Ronald Klingebiel, Feibai Zhu
{"title":"Ambiguity aversion and the degree of ambiguity","authors":"Ronald Klingebiel, Feibai Zhu","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09410-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09410-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2023-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43268402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Windfall gains and house money: The effects of endowment history and prior outcomes on risky decision–making Windfall收益和房屋资金：捐赠历史和先前结果对风险决策的影响
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09411-5
Hauke Jelschen, Ulrich Schmidt
{"title":"Windfall gains and house money: The effects of endowment history and prior outcomes on risky decision–making","authors":"Hauke Jelschen, Ulrich Schmidt","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09411-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09411-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44383546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Paying for randomization and indecisiveness 为随机性和犹豫不决付出代价
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-05-23 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09407-1
Qiyan Ong, J. Qiu
{"title":"Paying for randomization and indecisiveness","authors":"Qiyan Ong, J. Qiu","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09407-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09407-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48150920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary values of increasing life expectancy: Sensitivity to shifts of the survival curve. 预期寿命增长的货币价值：对生存曲线变化的敏感性。
IF 1.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-05-10 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09406-2
James K Hammitt, Tuba Tunçel
{"title":"Monetary values of increasing life expectancy: Sensitivity to shifts of the survival curve.","authors":"James K Hammitt, Tuba Tunçel","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09406-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11166-023-09406-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Individuals' monetary values of decreases in mortality risk depend on the magnitude and timing of the risk reduction. We elicited stated preferences among three time paths of risk reduction yielding the same increase in life expectancy (decreasing risk for the next decade, subtracting a constant from or multiplying risk by a constant in all future years) and willingness to pay (WTP) for risk reductions differing in timing and life-expectancy gain. Respondents exhibited heterogeneous preferences over the alternative time paths, with almost 90 percent reporting transitive orderings. WTP is statistically significantly associated with life-expectancy gain (between about 7 and 28 days) and with respondents' stated preferences over the alternative time paths. Estimated value per statistical life year (VSLY) can differ by time path and averages about $500,000, roughly consistent with conventional estimates obtained by dividing estimated value per statistical life by discounted life expectancy.</p>","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10171170/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9718775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How risky is distracted driving? 分心驾驶有多危险?
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09405-3
J. Karl, Charles Nyce, Lawrence S. Powell, Boyi Zhuang
{"title":"How risky is distracted driving?","authors":"J. Karl, Charles Nyce, Lawrence S. Powell, Boyi Zhuang","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09405-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09405-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45927887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The predictive power of risk elicitation tasks 风险引出任务的预测能力
2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09408-0
Michele Garagnani
{"title":"The predictive power of risk elicitation tasks","authors":"Michele Garagnani","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09408-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09408-0","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This work reports the results of two online experiments with a general-population sample examining the performance of different tasks for the elicitation of risk attitudes. First, I compare the investment task of Gneezy and Potters (1997), the standard choice-list method of Holt and Laury (2002), and the multi-alternative procedure of Eckel and Grossman (2002) and evaluate their performance in terms of the number of correctly-predicted binary decisions in a set of out-of-sample lottery choices. There are limited differences between the tasks in this sense, and performance is modest. Second, I included three additional budget-choice tasks (selection of a lottery from a linear budget set) where optimal decisions should have been corner solutions, and find that a large majority of participants provided interior solutions instead, casting doubts on people’s understanding of tasks of this type. Finally, I investigate whether these two results depend on cognitive ability, numerical literacy, and education. While optimal choices in budget-choice tasks are related to numerical literacy and cognitive ability, the predictive performance of the risk-elicitation tasks is unaffected.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134922604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
首页 上一页 下一页 尾页
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整，为了账户安全，请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们：info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务，方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号：481959085
Book学术官方微信