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Journal of Risk and Uncertainty最新文献

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The predictive power of risk elicitation tasks 风险引出任务的预测能力
2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09408-0
Michele Garagnani
{"title":"The predictive power of risk elicitation tasks","authors":"Michele Garagnani","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09408-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09408-0","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This work reports the results of two online experiments with a general-population sample examining the performance of different tasks for the elicitation of risk attitudes. First, I compare the investment task of Gneezy and Potters (1997), the standard choice-list method of Holt and Laury (2002), and the multi-alternative procedure of Eckel and Grossman (2002) and evaluate their performance in terms of the number of correctly-predicted binary decisions in a set of out-of-sample lottery choices. There are limited differences between the tasks in this sense, and performance is modest. Second, I included three additional budget-choice tasks (selection of a lottery from a linear budget set) where optimal decisions should have been corner solutions, and find that a large majority of participants provided interior solutions instead, casting doubts on people’s understanding of tasks of this type. Finally, I investigate whether these two results depend on cognitive ability, numerical literacy, and education. While optimal choices in budget-choice tasks are related to numerical literacy and cognitive ability, the predictive performance of the risk-elicitation tasks is unaffected.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"148 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134922604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Estimating risk and time preferences over public lotteries: Findings from the field and stream 估计公共彩票的风险和时间偏好:来自现场和流的发现
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-03-04 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09404-4
David O. Scrogin
{"title":"Estimating risk and time preferences over public lotteries: Findings from the field and stream","authors":"David O. Scrogin","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09404-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09404-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"67 1","pages":"73 - 106"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41382427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The locus of dread for mass shooting risks: Distinguishing alarmist risk beliefs from risk preferences 大规模枪击风险的恐惧源：区分危言耸听的风险信念和风险偏好
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-02-25 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09403-5
R. Dalafave, W. Viscusi
{"title":"The locus of dread for mass shooting risks: Distinguishing alarmist risk beliefs from risk preferences","authors":"R. Dalafave, W. Viscusi","doi":"10.1007/s11166-023-09403-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09403-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"146 ","pages":"109-139"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2023-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41273195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Effects of e-cigarette minimum legal sales ages on youth tobacco use in the United States 美国电子烟最低合法销售年龄对青少年烟草使用的影响
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-01-14 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09402-y
M. Pesko
{"title":"Effects of e-cigarette minimum legal sales ages on youth tobacco use in the United States","authors":"M. Pesko","doi":"10.1007/s11166-022-09402-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09402-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"1 1","pages":"1-17"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2023-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46717772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Safe options and gender differences in risk attitudes 安全选择和风险态度的性别差异
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-01-14 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09400-0
Paolo Crosetto, Antonio Filippin
{"title":"Safe options and gender differences in risk attitudes","authors":"Paolo Crosetto, Antonio Filippin","doi":"10.1007/s11166-022-09400-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09400-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"66 1","pages":"19-46"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2023-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46454345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Strategic ambiguity and risk in alternating pie-sharing experiments 交替馅饼分享实验中的战略模糊性和风险
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-01-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09401-z
Annalisa Conte, W. Güth, Paul Pezanis-Christou
{"title":"Strategic ambiguity and risk in alternating pie-sharing experiments","authors":"Annalisa Conte, W. Güth, Paul Pezanis-Christou","doi":"10.1007/s11166-022-09401-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09401-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"1 1","pages":"1-28"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2023-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45159279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seen and not seen: How people judge ambiguous behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. 看见与看不见：在 COVID-19 大流行期间人们如何判断模棱两可的行为。
IF 1.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-12-12 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09396-7
Andras Molnar, Alex Moore, Carman Fowler, George Wu
{"title":"Seen and not seen: How people judge ambiguous behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic.","authors":"Andras Molnar, Alex Moore, Carman Fowler, George Wu","doi":"10.1007/s11166-022-09396-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11166-022-09396-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>How do we judge others' behavior when they are both <i>seen and not seen</i>-when we observe their behavior but not the underlying traits or history that moderate the perceived riskiness of their behavior? We investigate this question in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic: How people make sense of, and judge, <i>vaccination-contingent behaviors</i>-behaviors, such as going to the gym or a bar, which are considered to be more or less risky and appropriate, depending on the target's vaccination status. While decision theoretic models suggest that these judgments should depend on the probability that the target is vaccinated (e.g., the positivity of judgments should increase linearly with the probability of vaccination), in a large-scale pre-registered experiment (<i>N</i> = 936) we find that both riskiness and appropriateness judgments deviate substantially from such normative benchmarks. Specifically, when participants judge a stranger's behavior, without being asked to think about the stranger's vaccination status, they tend to judge these behaviors similarly positively to behaviors of others who are <i>known</i> to be fully vaccinated. By contrast, when participants are explicitly prompted to think about the vaccination status of others, they do so, leading them to view others more disparagingly, at times even more negatively than what a normative benchmark would imply. More broadly, these results suggest new directions for research on how people respond to risk and ambiguity. We demonstrate that even subtle cues can fundamentally alter what information is \"top of mind,\" that is, what information is included or excluded when making judgments.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11166-022-09396-7.</p>","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"66 2","pages":"141-159"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9743130/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9191401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the role of monetary incentives in risk preference elicitation experiments. 论货币激励在风险偏好诱导实验中的作用。
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09377-w
Andreas Hackethal, Michael Kirchler, Christine Laudenbach, Michael Razen, Annika Weber
{"title":"On the role of monetary incentives in risk preference elicitation experiments.","authors":"Andreas Hackethal,&nbsp;Michael Kirchler,&nbsp;Christine Laudenbach,&nbsp;Michael Razen,&nbsp;Annika Weber","doi":"10.1007/s11166-022-09377-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09377-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Incentivized experiments in which individuals receive monetary rewards according to the outcomes of their decisions are regarded as the gold standard for preference elicitation in experimental economics. These task-related real payments are considered necessary to reveal subjects' \"true preferences.\" Using a systematic, large-sample approach with three subject pools of private investors, professional investors, and students, we test the effect of task-related monetary incentives on risk preferences in four standard experimental tasks. We find no significant differences in behavior between and within subjects in the incentivized and non-incentivized regimes. We discuss implications for academic research and forions in the field.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11166-022-09377-w.</p>","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"66 2","pages":"189-213"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10023624/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9161578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Is survival a luxury good? Income elasticity of the value per statistical life 生存是一种奢侈吗？每个统计寿命价值的收入弹性
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09397-6
J. Hammitt, Jin-Tan Liu, Jin-Long Liu
{"title":"Is survival a luxury good? Income elasticity of the value per statistical life","authors":"J. Hammitt, Jin-Tan Liu, Jin-Long Liu","doi":"10.1007/s11166-022-09397-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09397-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"65 1","pages":"239 - 260"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43211993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Controlling ambiguity: The illusion of control in choice under risk and ambiguity 控制模糊性:在风险和模糊性条件下的选择控制幻觉
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09399-4
Alex Berger, Agnieszka Tymula
{"title":"Controlling ambiguity: The illusion of control in choice under risk and ambiguity","authors":"Alex Berger, Agnieszka Tymula","doi":"10.1007/s11166-022-09399-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09399-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"65 1","pages":"261 - 284"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49175609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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