The predictive power of risk elicitation tasks

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI:10.1007/s11166-023-09408-0

Michele Garagnani

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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Abstract This work reports the results of two online experiments with a general-population sample examining the performance of different tasks for the elicitation of risk attitudes. First, I compare the investment task of Gneezy and Potters (1997), the standard choice-list method of Holt and Laury (2002), and the multi-alternative procedure of Eckel and Grossman (2002) and evaluate their performance in terms of the number of correctly-predicted binary decisions in a set of out-of-sample lottery choices. There are limited differences between the tasks in this sense, and performance is modest. Second, I included three additional budget-choice tasks (selection of a lottery from a linear budget set) where optimal decisions should have been corner solutions, and find that a large majority of participants provided interior solutions instead, casting doubts on people’s understanding of tasks of this type. Finally, I investigate whether these two results depend on cognitive ability, numerical literacy, and education. While optimal choices in budget-choice tasks are related to numerical literacy and cognitive ability, the predictive performance of the risk-elicitation tasks is unaffected.

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风险引出任务的预测能力

摘要:本研究报告了两个在线实验的结果，该实验以一般人群为样本，研究了不同任务的表现，以激发风险态度。首先，我比较了Gneezy和Potters(1997)的投资任务，Holt和Laury(2002)的标准选择列表方法，以及Eckel和Grossman(2002)的多选择程序，并根据一组样本外彩票选择中正确预测的二进制决策的数量来评估它们的表现。从这个意义上讲，任务之间的差异有限，性能也不高。其次，我加入了三个额外的预算选择任务(从线性预算集中选择彩票)，其中最优决策应该是角落解决方案，并发现绝大多数参与者提供了内部解决方案，这使人们对这类任务的理解产生了怀疑。最后，我研究了这两个结果是否取决于认知能力、数字素养和教育。预算选择任务中的最优选择与数字素养和认知能力有关，而风险启发任务的预测性能不受影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.