Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献_第9页

Trade effects of industrial policies: Are preferential agreements a shield? 产业政策的贸易效应：优惠协定是一种保护吗？

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.015

Alessandro Barattieri , Aaditya Mattoo , Daria Taglioni

引用次数: 0

The impact of the Federal Government debt on macroeconomic stability in the United States 联邦政府债务对美国宏观经济稳定的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.012

Lucjan T. Orlowski

{"title":"The impact of the Federal Government debt on macroeconomic stability in the United States","authors":"Lucjan T. Orlowski","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study determines the public debt-to-GDP levels for the United States to identify debt thresholds that support macroeconomic<span> stability, with a focus on price stability and low unemployment. Unlike previous studies that analyze how debt impacts economic growth, this research looks at how inflation<span><span> and unemployment react to the rising debt ratio at different levels of debt. The analysis starts by estimating the relationship between changes in public debt and changes in real GDP, noting a significant shift in 2008Q1 coinciding with the onset of the global financial crisis. Prior to the crisis, debt increases had no impact on GDP, but afterwards, an inverse relationship emerged. The analysis then proceeds with the sequence of two tests. Firstly, by conducting SETAR(2,p) testing on quarterly data from 1996 to 2024, two debt ratio thresholds are identified at 55.75 % and 97.12 %. This categorizes the debt ratio in three zones: a low debt zone below the lower threshold, a high zone above the upper threshold, and an intermediate zone in between. The tests examine the debt ratio in relation to changes in the core PCE annualized inflation, the rate of unemployment and the federal funds effective rate as a non-switching regressor. Subsequently, </span>cointegration<span> and VECM(2,5) tests are conducted to examine interactions and determine impulse responses between the debt ratio, inflation and unemployment in each debt zone. Findings indicate that increases in the debt ratio do not impact inflation or unemployment in the low debt zone. In the intermediate zone, rising debt leads to an increase in unemployment. Conversely, in the high debt zone, both inflation and unemployment increase significantly with rising debt. These non-linear and reverse causal relationships suggest that the current high public debt in the US is detrimental to macroeconomic stability, highlighting the need for urgent policies to reduce the debt burden.</span></span></span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 4","pages":"Pages 771-784"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

International trade and economic growth in the era of geoeconomic fragmentation 地缘经济碎片化时代的国际贸易与经济增长

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.017

Dominick Salvatore , Janhavi Shankar Tripathi

{"title":"International trade and economic growth in the era of geoeconomic fragmentation","authors":"Dominick Salvatore , Janhavi Shankar Tripathi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span><span>This paper studies the relationship between international trade and economic growth during the era of geoeconomic fragmentation (2017–2023), using a </span>simultaneous equations model estimated through the full information maximum likelihood method. The study covers 132 countries (30 advanced and 102 developing) and also analyzes trade-growth dynamics separately for large and small economies. The findings confirm that trade remains a crucial factor for economic growth, but it acts more as a facilitator than a direct driver. In advanced countries, exports positively contribute to capital formation and growth, and industrialization contributes significantly to exports, while </span>capital inflows have a negative effect on fixed capital formation. For developing countries, industrialization significantly boosts exports and in turn economic growth. The study highlights that the rise in protectionism and trade disruptions during the geoeconomic fragmentation period may weaken the positive impact of trade on growth. The results are validated through dynamic simulations, underscoring the need for strategic industrialization and trade partnerships to sustain growth in a fragmented global economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 4","pages":"Pages 862-879"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

What happens in the global economy if the United States reduces its share of imports in GDP 如果美国减少其进口占GDP的比重，全球经济将会发生什么

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.018

Fred Campano , Dominick Salvatore , Alberto Costantiello

引用次数: 0

State voting preferences 2024 各州投票偏好2024

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.011

Dominick Salvatore, Fred Campano

引用次数: 0

Foresee the unseen: Evaluating the impact of artificial intelligence on international trade 预见未知：评估人工智能对国际贸易的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.016

Adam Jakubik , Lorenzo Rotunno , Alisha Saini

引用次数: 0

US trade conflict: Potential economic implications for the US and the global economy 美国贸易冲突：对美国和全球经济的潜在影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.013

Robert B. Koopman , Marinos Tsigas

{"title":"US trade conflict: Potential economic implications for the US and the global economy","authors":"Robert B. Koopman , Marinos Tsigas","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>This paper evaluates the economic consequences of increasing US trade unilateralism through a CGE modeling approach focusing on three counterfactual scenarios: universal tariff retaliation, partial US-China de-escalation, and trade barriers combined with immigration restrictions. Using a GTAP framework with enhanced </span>labor market<span> detail, we find that full retaliation reduces US real GDP by 1.32 % and income by 2.77 %, with particularly severe impacts on export-oriented sectors. While selected bilateral accommodation provides modest relief, the combination of trade restrictions and labor deportation policies amplifies losses, reducing GDP by 3.83 % and income by 12.08 %. The results highlight the substantial costs of retreating from cooperative trade frameworks and the interconnections between trade and immigration policies. These findings suggest that preserving rules-based cooperation, enhancing multilateral institutions, and developing integrated labor-trade adjustment mechanisms are vital for maintaining economic resilience in an evolving global order. Keywords: trade policy<span><span>, tariffs, CGE modeling, labor markets, </span>economic integration</span></span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 4","pages":"Pages 785-804"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Debt supercycle versus secular stagnation 债务超级周期vs长期停滞

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.008

Kenneth Rogoff

引用次数: 0

What drives trade policy reform? 贸易政策改革的动力是什么？

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.014

Julia Estefania-Flores , Davide Furceri , Jonathan D. Ostry , Federico Steinberg

引用次数: 0

Industrial policy and the new protectionism 产业政策与新保护主义

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.007

Joseph E. Stiglitz

引用次数: 0