Fiscal policy in times of fiscal stress (or what to do when r > g)

IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Roy Havemann , Hylton Hollander
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

South Africa runs a primary fiscal deficit and the long-term interest rate on government borrowing, r, is greater than the long-term economic growth rate, g. Without intervention, debt will continue to rise until there is a disorderly fiscal stop. Reforms to raise growth have not materialised, leaving fiscal consolidation as the second-best solution. Using a medium-sized, open-economy, fiscal DSGE model of South Africa, we show that the least cost policy is to impose a time-consistent fiscal policy rule with debt-to-GDP as the fiscal anchor and a pre-announced path for government consumption spending as the intermediate operational objective. This result obtains with and without explicit policy coordination between the fiscal and monetary authorities.

财政紧张时期的财政政策(或当 r > g 时该怎么办)
南非存在基本财政赤字,政府借贷的长期利率 r 大于长期经济增长率 g。如果不采取干预措施,债务将继续上升,直至出现无序的财政停滞。提高经济增长的改革并未实现,因此财政整顿成为次优解决方案。通过使用一个中等规模、开放经济、南非财政 DSGE 模型,我们发现成本最低的政策是实施一个时间一致的财政政策规则,以债务与国内生产总值之比作为财政锚,以预先公布的政府消费支出路径作为中间操作目标。无论财政当局和货币当局之间是否有明确的政策协调,这一结果都是成立的。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
11.40%
发文量
76
期刊介绍: The Journal of Policy Modeling is published by Elsevier for the Society for Policy Modeling to provide a forum for analysis and debate concerning international policy issues. The journal addresses questions of critical import to the world community as a whole, and it focuses upon the economic, social, and political interdependencies between national and regional systems. This implies concern with international policies for the promotion of a better life for all human beings and, therefore, concentrates on improved methodological underpinnings for dealing with these problems.
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