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Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

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Ending poverty and accelerating growth in South Africa, through the expansion of its social grant system 南非通过扩大社会补助金制度消除贫困和加快增长
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.003
Ismael Fofana , Ramos E. Mabugu , Alhassane Camara , Babatunde Abidoye
{"title":"Ending poverty and accelerating growth in South Africa, through the expansion of its social grant system","authors":"Ismael Fofana ,&nbsp;Ramos E. Mabugu ,&nbsp;Alhassane Camara ,&nbsp;Babatunde Abidoye","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>South Africa has one of the most extensive social assistance systems among developing countries; however, the proportion of the population below the national poverty lines remains relatively high. Thus, we develop a micro-macro framework to assess the economic growth implications of expanding South Africa’s social grant system under alternative conditions. We find that conditional poverty-alleviation social transfers foster growth while unconditional redistribution towards lower-income earners can hinder economic growth. From policy perspectives, we show that the transfer of purchasing power to extremely poor beneficiaries and their economic participation are required for poverty-alleviation social transfers to have positive economic outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1090-1102"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141839369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Racial diversity, child stunting and underweight: Policies design and promotion in South Africa 种族多样性、儿童发育迟缓和体重不足：南非的政策设计与推广
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.009
Isaac Koomson , Clifford Afoakwah , Martinson Ankrah Twumasi
{"title":"Racial diversity, child stunting and underweight: Policies design and promotion in South Africa","authors":"Isaac Koomson ,&nbsp;Clifford Afoakwah ,&nbsp;Martinson Ankrah Twumasi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the effect of racial diversity on child stunting and underweight in post-apartheid South Africa, which has a strong history of systemic racial segregation. Using five waves of longitudinal data from the National Income Dynamics Survey (NIDS), and employing instrumental variable and propensity score matching methods, we find that racial diversity significantly reduces child stunting and underweight. This result is consistent across alternative measures of racial diversity, child stunting and underweight, and is also robust to different endogeneity-correction methods. The negative effect of racial diversity on child stunting and underweight is more pronounced among children under 5 years of age. Further analyses highlight increased employment opportunities, food expenditure per capita and financial inclusion as important channels through which racial diversity decreases stunting and underweight. We discuss the policy implications of these findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1243-1262"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141552365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal policy and public debt: Government investment is most effective to promote sustainability 财政政策和公共债务：政府投资对促进可持续性最为有效
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.002
Giovanna Ciaffi , Matteo Deleidi , Lorenzo Di Domenico
{"title":"Fiscal policy and public debt: Government investment is most effective to promote sustainability","authors":"Giovanna Ciaffi ,&nbsp;Matteo Deleidi ,&nbsp;Lorenzo Di Domenico","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper aims to quantify the effects of government expenditure and its components, i.e. government consumption and investment, on output and public debt sustainability. The Local Projections approach is applied to a dataset of 14 OECD countries considered for the 1981–2017 period. Fiscal policy shocks have been identified using the Blanchard and Perotti strategy and the narrative approach based on fiscal consolidation episodes. Multipliers of total government spending are above the unit and government investment multipliers are higher than consumption ones. Although all fiscal policy shocks reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio, government investment is the most effective tool for promoting public debt sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1186-1209"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141700098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ghana and the IMF: Policy shifts, economic bailouts and macroeconomic outcomes 加纳与国际货币基金组织：政策转变、经济救助和宏观经济成果
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.006
Suale Karimu
{"title":"Ghana and the IMF: Policy shifts, economic bailouts and macroeconomic outcomes","authors":"Suale Karimu","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ghana has a long history of engagement with the IMF. Successive governments of Ghana have sought economic bailouts from the IMF due to worsening domestic macroeconomic stability. This paper examines Ghana’s historical engagement with the IMF and the associated macroeconomic outcomes, and offers lessons for economic restructuring and growth beyond the bailouts. The paper explores the common patterns of the key macroeconomic variables and possible latent causal effects. The results reveal intermittent and short-term effects of the IMF programs. The bailouts often have a short-term impact on macroeconomic stability and growth, but the effects are unsustainable in the long term, especially after the IMF program ends.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1146-1164"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142205826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does local non-farm income moderate the intensity of climate change induced migration in India? 印度当地的非农收入是否减缓了气候变化引起的移民强度？
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.005
Gauri Sreekumar , Sabuj Kumar Mandal , Anviksha Drall
{"title":"Does local non-farm income moderate the intensity of climate change induced migration in India?","authors":"Gauri Sreekumar ,&nbsp;Sabuj Kumar Mandal ,&nbsp;Anviksha Drall","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While the impact of climate change on migration is well documented in the literature, very little is known about the moderating impact of local non-farm income on climate change induced migration. To fill this gap in the literature, the paper combines real time weather data provided by Indian Meteorological Department with a very rich household data on Indian states belonging to the eastern and semi-arid tropic regions collected by ICRISAT to investigate whether farmers always resort to migration or take it up as a second-best option only after they fail to diversify locally on the face of climate change induced crop loss. Using recursive econometric model, it is observed that households first try to diversify their income by engaging in local non-farm activities and availability of local non-farm income further moderates the effect of climate change induced yield loss on migration. Higher rural out migration may adversely impact the agricultural sector and affect sustainable urbanization, Also, decision to migrate is often challenging as it necessitates leaving behind social and community networks. Therefore, our findings offer valuable insights and discusses important policy recommendations towards improving the access to local non-farm activities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1125-1145"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142205827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A two-for-one deal: Targeting nominal GDP to create a supply-shock robust inflation target 一举两得：以名义国内生产总值为目标，建立受供应冲击影响的稳健通胀目标
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.014
David Beckworth, Patrick J. Horan
{"title":"A two-for-one deal: Targeting nominal GDP to create a supply-shock robust inflation target","authors":"David Beckworth,&nbsp;Patrick J. Horan","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A key tenet of modern central banking says that if inflation expectations are anchored then monetary policy should “look through” the inflationary effects of supply shocks that do not permanently affect potential output. However, the inflation surge of 2021–2022 vividly demonstrated that this standard monetary policy prescription is difficult to implement in practice since it requires a real-time knowledge of what shocks are driving changes in inflation while requiring a credible nominal anchor. This paper argues that a workaround solution to these problems is for central banks to stabilize the growth path of nominal GDP. Doing so allows central banks to look through short-term inflation movements caused by temporary supply shocks while still anchoring medium-run inflation. Therefore, central banks that target nominal GDP also are effectively targeting medium-run inflation. This two-for-one targeting deal not only solves the knowledge problem while keeping inflation anchored but can be implemented via standard Taylor-like rules. This paper shows how to operationalize such a framework for the case of the United States.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1071-1089"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141852605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The economy-wide impact of cooking oil subsidy reforms and compensation to the oil palm industry 食用油补贴改革对整个经济的影响以及对油棕榈树产业的补偿
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.008
Jing Jing Liu, Norlida Hanim Mohd Salleh, Nor Ghani Md Nor
{"title":"The economy-wide impact of cooking oil subsidy reforms and compensation to the oil palm industry","authors":"Jing Jing Liu,&nbsp;Norlida Hanim Mohd Salleh,&nbsp;Nor Ghani Md Nor","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span><span>This study analyses the economy-wide impact of cooking oil subsidy reforms using two simulations: complete subsidy removal and compensation for the oil palm industry. The study focuses on </span>macroeconomic variables<span>, industrial output, and employment. A Computable General Equilibrium model<span> is used for analysis. The study found that complete subsidy removal leads to negative impacts on the macroeconomy, causing a slight decrease in economic growth. It also results in negative impacts on industrial output and employment. On the other hand, reallocating the revenue to the oil palm industry investment could mitigate these adverse effects, and further leads to an increase in economic growth. The reallocation improves the output of the oil palm industry and reduces its </span></span></span>labour demand<span>. The impacts on other industries' output and employment vary. Removing cooking oil subsidy can be a viable option because of its marginal impacts. It's also recommended to compensate the oil palm industry, especially independent smallholders.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1228-1242"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141134190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
European VAT collection under the stress: Best to use few reduced rates 欧洲增值税征收面临压力：最好使用少数降低的税率
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.007
Alžběta Dytrychová, Hana Zídková, Markéta Arltová
{"title":"European VAT collection under the stress: Best to use few reduced rates","authors":"Alžběta Dytrychová,&nbsp;Hana Zídková,&nbsp;Markéta Arltová","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The article analyses the effectiveness of the VAT system in European countries. Higher values of the effective VAT rate reduce the Policy gap but increase the Compliance gap. A higher effective VAT rate consisting of a relatively low standard rate and few reduced rates improves overall efficiency by reducing the Policy Gap more than increasing the Compliance Gap. Our recommendation is to use as few reduced rates as possible. As for the effect of the standard rate itself, we have found that it does not increase tax evasion in the new Member States, unlike the number of VAT rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1165-1185"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142205825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Health and growth in China: Greater investment in both soft- and hard-ware are needed 中国的健康与增长：需要加大软硬件投资
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.006
Fu Shuyong, Chen Shuyu, Zhai Jinlong
{"title":"Health and growth in China: Greater investment in both soft- and hard-ware are needed","authors":"Fu Shuyong,&nbsp;Chen Shuyu,&nbsp;Zhai Jinlong","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span><span>The purpose is to study the relationship between health investment and economic growth in China. The research design involves empirical research using semi parametric regression models and instrumental variable<span> methods. The results indicate that on the one hand, Chinese health investment can promote economic growth, and its promoting effect on economic growth is non-linear; On the other hand, healthcare investment in the form of human capital is more conducive to promoting </span></span>regional economic growth than healthcare investment in the form of material capital. The conclusion is that it is necessary to increase health investment in the form of human capital such as the number of </span>health personnel in the eastern region, as well as in the form of material capital such as the number of beds in the central and western regions, in order to better promote regional economic growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1263-1273"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140399532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Labour supply responses to a negative income tax in Spain 西班牙劳动力供应对负所得税的反应
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.007
Amadeo Fuenmayor, Rafael Granell, Teresa Savall
{"title":"Labour supply responses to a negative income tax in Spain","authors":"Amadeo Fuenmayor,&nbsp;Rafael Granell,&nbsp;Teresa Savall","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>One of the major drawbacks of a Basic Income proposal is that it could induce people to reduce their labour supply. The main aim of this paper is to put forward a financially viable alternative to the current Spanish system of social protection, based on a Negative Income Tax proposal and introducing several changes in the social protection system. Using EUROMOD, the labour behavioural responses to these new conditions are studied in detail, using a structural model of labour supply.</div><div>The main result is that a reform as the one described in this work will not make people to abandon the labour market, as usually argued for Basic Income proposals. Under this scheme, on the contrary, we can observe a slightly increase in labour supply. This finding has strong implications for policy. Modifying the tax-benefit system, bringing it closer to a Basic Income scheme, will produce significant improvements in inequality and poverty without a significant change in labour supply.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1274-1287"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140576947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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