Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

{"title":"Vitamin supplements intake and diet quality in emerging economies: Evidence from Chile","authors":"Emiliano Lopez Barrera,&nbsp;Grace Melo,&nbsp;Paula Urbina,&nbsp;Kodjo Barnor","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.02.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.02.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vitamin supplements (VS) may act as either complements to or substitutes for healthy foods, with distinct implications for nutrition policy. This study investigates that relationship using nationally representative individual dietary intake data from Chile and a causal framework that combines Directed Acyclic Graphs with instrumental-variable models. Results reveal that individuals who do not consume VS typically have poorer diet quality—a pattern particularly pronounced among low-income, time-constrained, and older adults. Further analysis shows no evidence that VS use substitutes for fruit and vegetables, suggesting that supplements complement rather than displace healthy foods. These findings support targeted nutrition policies that promote appropriate VS use among nutritionally vulnerable groups, in combination with food-based interventions, without undermining healthy food consumption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 107027"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148478546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Smart specialisation strategy in a tourist country: A new path of development in Italian regions?","authors":"Maria Giovanna Brandano,&nbsp;Adriana Carolina Pinate","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines whether a region’s tourism vocation and tourism density influence priority selection in the European Smart Specialization Strategy (S3). Using a mixed-method approach, we first conduct a textual analysis of the Eye@RIS3 platform to identify tourism-related priorities. Then, we employ an econometric model to determine key influencing factors. Our findings show that regions specializing in maritime, thermal, and cultural tourism prioritize tourism initiatives, while those with multiple vocations do not. Additionally, regions with lower tourism density and no prior specialization are more likely to focus on tourism to drive economic development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 106989"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148478547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the economic policy of Mexico’s fourth transformation: A populist agenda or a precautionary stance?","authors":"José María González Lara,&nbsp;Jesús Alejandro Navarro Acosta,&nbsp;Eduardo Rodríguez Juárez,&nbsp;Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes the economic policy of the Mexican government during the “Fourth Transformation” (4 T) to assess its alignment with the characteristics of economic populism. First, we establish a well-defined framework for economic populism, focusing on policies that prioritize short-term growth and redistribution to the detriment of macroeconomic stability. Subsequently, we construct a quantitative Populism Index (PIo) for the period 2006–2025Q2 using key variables associated with populist economics: wages, social transfers, unemployment, public debt, inflation, and public spending. We then employ a Random Forest (RF) machine learning model to assess the relative importance of these variables within the index. A comparative analysis of recent presidential terms is performed to contextualize the economic policy of the 4 T. We conclude that, while the 4 T government pursued important redistributive objectives, its macroeconomic management during most of its term was largely precautionary, displaying significant deviations from the patterns of historical economic populism. That is, the 4T's economic policy is not at all populist, but rather a precautionary economic policy with wealth redistribution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 107021"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148478543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can she better educate her child? Impact of gender-based financial inclusion","authors":"Meenakshi Rajeev,&nbsp;Sabyasachi Tripathi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.08.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.08.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study provides critical policy insight by constructing gender-disaggregated Financial Inclusion Indices (FII) for nations across the globe to evaluate the role of female financial inclusion (FI) in advancing educational outcomes. Using panel data from four waves of the World Bank's Global FINDEX, our findings reveal that female FI significantly increases girls' school enrollment, whereas male FI shows no such effect. Moreover, female FI has a stronger positive influence on girls' mean years of schooling than male FI. An important contribution of the paper is to address the issue in the framework of capability theory (Sen, 1993), based on which various policies for human development have been derived. We argue how education as an input is provided to a girl child to enhance her valued capability and functioning through the realized agency of a financially included mother. Based on these findings, we propose targeted policies to strengthen female financial inclusion, particularly in developing countries, to drive broader social and economic development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 107001"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148478582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of the ECB’s success to reach its inflation target","authors":"Milutin Ješić,&nbsp;Hans Manner","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107066","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107066","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The European Central Bank (ECB) implemented a monetary policy strategy that quantitatively defined price stability as “below but close to 2 %” from 2003 to 2021. In July 2021, it adopted a new monetary policy strategy, committing to an inflation target of 2 % with a symmetric treatment of deviations. This study implicitly analyzes the performance of the previous strategy in achieving price stability by identifying the key determinants that influence inflation deviations from the target. Methodologically, we apply the nonstationary ordered probit model, which allows the estimation of marginal effects of covariates on the probability of the inflation rate being below, in, or above the assumed target range. The results indicate that the crucial determinants of deviation in the inflation rate from the target range are fundamental macroeconomic variables, some of which are indirectly under the control of the ECB. While the inflation rate has occasionally deviated from the target range, the overall conclusion is that the performance of the ECB in fulfilling the primary goal defined in the monetary policy strategy is still manageable.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 107066"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148478580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Managing the migration crisis in Greece: People evaluation of policy","authors":"Irene Daskalopoulou,&nbsp;Athanasia Karakitsiou,&nbsp;Christina Malliou","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107056","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107056","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We measure citizens’ evaluations of state efficacy in managing the migration crisis as constrained by the burden of the phenomenon, societal tolerance and institutional control. We focus on a frontline migration country and measure citizens’ satisfaction with policy control of the migration crisis using a 2020 sample of 1014 Greek respondents. Results of a two-stage Likert Scale-DEA model validate our propositions. Migration is experienced at the regional level and it is structured by natives’ perceptions of burden, tolerance, administrative efficacy and individuals’ experiences with immigrants. Higher policy satisfaction levels are observed for young male respondents and those living in high quality environment. Important policy implications derive from the evidenced association between migration policies and peoples’ evaluations of political efficacy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 107056"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148478548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Policy lessons from labor market reforms during crisis: Success and failure of the Greek bailout programs","authors":"Georgios Gatopoulos,&nbsp;Alexandros Louka,&nbsp;Ioannis Polycarpou,&nbsp;Nikolaos Vettas","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We explore the implications from one of the most radical packages of labor policy measures ever implemented, during the recent economic adjustment program in Greece. Within one year, large scale interventions touched upon the minimum wage, collective bargaining, employment protection and flexible forms of employment. Using a macro-wide generalized synthetic control model to evaluate the impact of the reforms, we identify important policy lessons. In the absence of exchange rate as a policy instrument, multifaceted labor policy interventions improve cost competitiveness and flexibility in the labor market, absorbing part of the crisis shock on employment volume. Nonetheless, amid intense fiscal constraints, reforms have side effects on participation rate and income inequality, unless accompanied with measures such as lower tax wedge and complementary product market reforms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 107024"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148478544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon pricing, growth, and green financing: Policy options for Saudi Arabia","authors":"Carlo Andrea Bollino,&nbsp;Fakhri J. Hasanov,&nbsp;Heyran Aliyeva,&nbsp;Majed Almozaini","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.01.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study simulates the impact of hypothetical carbon-pricing policy options with alternative revenue recycling on Saudi Arabia’s economic growth and its decarbonization aspirations, using a semi-structural macro-sectoral econometric model, extended with energy and emissions linkages. The following findings are worth considering. (i) Deregulation of sales prices for 15 energy and 4 feedstock products, assumed in Business as Usual-BaU, raises prices in 2040 to 35% above 2025 levels. On average over the period 2025–2040, (ii) Carbon prices of 75 SAR per ton of CO2 emissions at the top of energy price reforms, with revenues spent under conventional budget patterns and channels, would reduce CO2 emissions by 5.2% against the BAU, but slows down economic growth by 0.5% against the BAU. (iii) A two-year <em>vacatio legis</em> for carbon pricing law, combined with short-term solar subsidies financed by green-bond borrowing, would ease economic drag to 0.4% below the BAU, while reducing emissions by 9% relative to the BaU. (iv) If instead, the carbon price revenues were recycled into long-term sustained support for renewable energy investments, economic growth could be even higher than in the BAU by 0.2%, while emissions could fall further to 15.4%.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 107025"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148478545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon costs and network structure. A policy analysis on how CORSIA rewires airline strategies","authors":"Ankit Sharma,&nbsp;Suresh Kumar Jakhar","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107057","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107057","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global efforts to regulate aviation emissions increasingly rely on market-based instruments that aim to reconcile environmental objectives with continued growth in air transport. The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), introduced by the International Civil Aviation Organization, represents a landmark intervention in this regard. While existing assessments of CORSIA primarily focus on emissions coverage and compliance costs, considerably less attention has been paid to how airlines strategically adapt their network structures in response to carbon constraints, and whether these adaptations align with policy intent. This paper examines how carbon offsetting regulation may induce unintended network restructuring in international aviation. Focusing on intercontinental airline networks operating in a competitive yet cooperative environment, the study analyses how airlines reconfigure routes, hubs, and market participation as regulatory stringency increases under CORSIA. Rather than treating airline networks as fixed, the analysis explicitly captures network reorganization as an endogenous behavioural response to carbon regulation. The results indicate that carbon constraints can lead airlines to restructure networks in ways that reduce direct long-haul connectivity, intensify hub concentration, and redistribute market shares across competitors. Importantly, these responses are heterogeneous: airlines with higher fuel efficiency are better positioned to preserve network reach, while less fuel-efficient carriers face stronger incentives to withdraw from certain routes or rely on indirect connections. Such dynamics suggest that CORSIA may influence competitive balance and regional connectivity outcomes beyond its emissions objectives. The study underscores the need for policymakers to account for network-level behavioural responses when evaluating the effectiveness of global aviation climate policies. By revealing how carbon regulation interacts with airline network design, the paper offers insights for improving the design, monitoring, and complementary governance of CORSIA to better align environmental goals with broader economic and connectivity considerations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 107057"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148478549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Policy to mitigate the price explosiveness in Madrid and Barcelona’s real estate markets","authors":"Adrian Fernandez-Perez,&nbsp;Marta Gómez-Puig,&nbsp;Simón Sosvilla-Rivero","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107068","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107068","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper contributes to the literature on housing market dynamics by offering a policy-oriented analysis of rental and sales price behaviour in Spain’s two largest cities, Madrid and Barcelona, between May 2007 and December 2024. Using monthly data from Idealista.com, we detect episodes of explosive price dynamics, identify their key determinants, and examine contagion effects across cities and market segments. Our findings reveal that rental markets often act as precursors to broader housing price surges, underscoring their strategic importance for policy intervention. Among the key drivers, hotel-based tourism appears to exert a stabilising effect on housing prices, while rising interest rates reduce the likelihood of explosive episodes. In contrast, population growth significantly increases the risk of price acceleration, and unemployment tends to mitigate it. These results have direct implications for housing policy, suggesting that rental markets should be prioritised in regulatory frameworks and that urban planning strategies, such as improving interurban transportation and regulating short-term rentals, can help mitigate housing market volatility. By linking empirical evidence to actionable policy re--ations, this study aims to support the development of resilient, inclusive, and forward-looking housing systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 107068"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148478581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}