Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

Modelling regional exposure to new trade wars 模拟新贸易战对地区的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.04.001

Miguel Ángel Almazán-Gómez , Fatima El Khatabi , Carlos Llano , Julián Pérez

{"title":"Modelling regional exposure to new trade wars","authors":"Miguel Ángel Almazán-Gómez , Fatima El Khatabi , Carlos Llano , Julián Pérez","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The COVID-19 pandemic and recent geopolitical events have triggered a new wave of protectionism. The return of Trump to the White House, a new trade war has just started. With the aim of addressing the territorial effect of trade policy, this study quantifies the effects of two significant protectionism measures announced by the US against the EU before the pandemic: the Boeing-Airbus trade dispute within the WTO and a 25 % tariff on the automotive sector. The impacts are calculated for 297 NUTS-2 European regions combining partial equilibrium and multiregional input-output analysis. The results reveal that the new tariffs would significantly negatively impact the European economy, with unevenly distributed effects across regions. The most affected regions are those heavily specialized in targeted products, such as automotive and aerospace components, and those deeply integrated into European value chains, experiencing substantial indirect impacts. This work underscores the need for targeted policy interventions at the European, national, and regional levels to mitigate these adverse effects. Key policy recommendations include developing contingency plans, promoting sectoral and geographical diversification, and strengthening intra-European trade relations. The findings highlight the strategic importance of the EU’s engagement in global trade negotiations to protect its economic interests and support vulnerable regions. This study wants also to illustrate the potential effects of some of the new tariffs just announced by Trump against the EU to be applied in the first years of his second term.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 5","pages":"Pages 919-940"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

I want to be Green! The role of social engagement in a circular economy transition 我想成为绿色！社会参与在循环经济转型中的作用

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.004

Livio Ferrante , Federica Scandurra

{"title":"I want to be Green! The role of social engagement in a circular economy transition","authors":"Livio Ferrante , Federica Scandurra","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the past decades, the circular economy has garnered significant attention from the international community as a paradigm for economic recovery, poverty alleviation, and emissions reduction, all contributing to the overarching objective of sustainable development. Thus, the promotion of the circular economy can be instrumental for governments in attaining their environmental targets. Circular companies play a central role in the transition to sustainable production and consumption systems; however, the factors that promote their development and growth remain unclear. In our study, we analyze the role of civil society engagement in the development and diffusion of circular companies. We use a dataset covering the Italian provinces from 2010 to 2020 and find that community engagement is strongly associated with the number of circular companies and the share of circular employment, even when accounting for spatial effects. The results suggest that policymakers should leverage bottom-up approaches based on civil society engagement when designing tools and interventions to promote a transition that is economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 5","pages":"Pages 941-957"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Revitalising EU growth: The power of competitive markets 重振欧盟增长：竞争市场的力量

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.001

Andrea Camilli , Michele Catalano , Claudio Colacurcio , Adriaan Dierx , Fabienne Ilzkovitz

引用次数: 0

The impact of government-funded renewable energy R&D on its consumption 政府资助的可再生能源研发对其消费的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.001

Dierk Herzer

引用次数: 0

Governance, financial openness, and renewable energy investment in Africa 治理、金融开放和非洲可再生能源投资

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.003

Isaac Appiah-Otoo , Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah , Xudong Chen

{"title":"Governance, financial openness, and renewable energy investment in Africa","authors":"Isaac Appiah-Otoo , Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah , Xudong Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>Sustainable Development Goal<span> 7 stresses the need for countries to expand renewable energy investment since renewable energy addresses global climate change and energy insecurity. However, credit accessibility remains a major obstacle to realising this goal. Financial openness addresses this obstacle; however, empirical evidence on the impact of financial openness on renewable energy investment remains limited. Therefore, this study probes the association between financial openness and renewable </span></span>energy investment in<span> 18 African countries from 2004 to 2020, focusing on the role of institutional quality. Using the fixed-effects model with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, the study finds that financial openness is a significant enabler of renewable energy investment in Africa; however, Africa’s weak institutional environment mitigates the positive impact of financial openness on renewable energy investment. The study estimates that Africa must reach a minimum threshold of institutional quality (2.1) on the −2.5–2.5 scale for financial openness to effectively boost renewable energy investment. The study recommends that policymakers enhance the overall institutional framework in Africa for financial openness to effectively drive renewable energy investment.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 5","pages":"Pages 958-976"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Second-leg home advantage no more? The impact of video assistant referee and no away goals rule in elite soccer 第二回合主场优势不复存在？视频助理裁判与无客场进球规则对精英足球比赛的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.003

Mustafa Yildirim , Mustafa Erhan Bilman

{"title":"Second-leg home advantage no more? The impact of video assistant referee and no away goals rule in elite soccer","authors":"Mustafa Yildirim , Mustafa Erhan Bilman","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does hosting the return leg in two-legged soccer ties improve a team’s advancement chances, as some contend, or is this perceived second-leg home advantage merely an illusion, as others argue? This question of competitive fairness is increasingly pertinent in today’s high-stakes soccer environment. While a definitive answer remains elusive, recent rule changes in European soccer, namely the introduction of the video assistant referee (VAR) system and the abolition of the away goals rule (AGR), have added new complexities. Analyzing 906 UEFA Champions League ties (2000/01–2023/24) via weighted logistic regression with robustness checks and team strength controls, we find that a modest second-leg home advantage appears only when AGR is in effect without VAR. Introducing VAR alongside AGR seemingly reverses that advantage, albeit lacking robustness, while neither rule alone nor both absent yields an order effect. Notably, VAR offsets the second-leg home advantage solely in AGR’s presence, while AGR creates that advantage solely in VAR’s absence. Although team quality remains the primary driver of success, these findings illustrate how seemingly innocuous regulatory shifts can redefine competitive fairness. Our results thus offer timely insights for policymakers aiming to design fair and strategically engaging formats in elite European soccer, particularly given the dearth of research on the subject.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 5","pages":"Pages 1097-1112"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Monetary policy and labor market dynamics: A gender perspective from developing economies 货币政策和劳动力市场动态：来自发展中经济体的性别视角

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.03.002

Marjan Petreski , Stefan Tanevski , Alejandro D. Jacobo

引用次数: 0

Autocratic governance and decentralization in non-democratic regimes: China’s case study 非民主政体中的专制治理和权力下放：中国案例研究

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.004

Tahir Yousaf , Qurat ul Ain

引用次数: 0

Inflation and policy coordination in high-inflation environments 高通胀环境下的通胀与政策协调

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.002

Idris A. Adediran , Olajide O. Oyadeyi , Tirimisiyu F. Oloko

引用次数: 0

Will temporary super depreciation allowances for green and digital investments have knock-on effects? 绿色和数字投资的临时超折旧津贴会产生连锁反应吗？

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.03.003

Michael Funke , Raphael Terasa

引用次数: 0