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Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

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Increasing taxes on ‘bads’ and reducing them on ‘goods’: A double dividend hypothesis of carbon taxation
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.002
Gurleen Kaur Malhotra , Amlendu Dubey
{"title":"Increasing taxes on ‘bads’ and reducing them on ‘goods’: A double dividend hypothesis of carbon taxation","authors":"Gurleen Kaur Malhotra ,&nbsp;Amlendu Dubey","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyse the effect of adoption of a carbon tax on the effective labour tax rates using a difference-in-difference framework in which we incorporate staggered treatment adoption and account for heterogeneous causal effects. We use data on 143 countries during 1985–2018. We conduct our analysis using DID estimation developed by Borusyak et al. (2024) and Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) followed by sensitivity analysis and placebo tests. We find that enacting a carbon tax on an average lowers the labour tax rate by 1.32 % points. In country-specific analysis we find that carbon tax implementation is reducing labour tax by around 3.57 % for Sweden and Norway, however, the effect is insignificant for Denmark. Our findings indicate that implementing a carbon tax can help to reduce the tax burden on labour. Countries experiencing substantial welfare losses due to their present tax structure might implement carbon taxes as a means to mitigate these losses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 118-133"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Lowering trade barriers improves income distribution and economic resiliency
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.004
Maksym Chepeliev , Maryla Maliszewska , Israel Osorio-Rodarte , Maria Filipa Seara e Pereira , Dominique van der Mensbrugghe
{"title":"Lowering trade barriers improves income distribution and economic resiliency","authors":"Maksym Chepeliev ,&nbsp;Maryla Maliszewska ,&nbsp;Israel Osorio-Rodarte ,&nbsp;Maria Filipa Seara e Pereira ,&nbsp;Dominique van der Mensbrugghe","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The U.S.-China trade war, COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to calls for greater economic self-sufficiency by exposing gaps in international collaboration and the uncertainty of global supply chains. In this study, we apply a comprehensive global modeling framework to enhance understanding of the potential impacts of fragmentation of global value chains. Supporting the general argument toward economic benefits from open markets our analysis contributes to the policy debate in two important dimensions of this phenomenon—distributional impacts and economic resiliency. We find that tariff liberalization and trade facilitation measures implemented by developing countries could not only reduce between-country inequality but also result in progressive within-country income distribution primarily through lowering food prices, as well as increasing unskilled wages. In addition, using a case study of disruption to Thailand’s electronics industry, we find higher resiliency of developing countries to external shocks in the globalized (as opposed to a localized) world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 30-48"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The short-run displacement of EU cohesion funds in Italy: Has reprogramming a positive impact on regional growth?
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.003
Fabio Mazzola, Debora Gambina
{"title":"The short-run displacement of EU cohesion funds in Italy: Has reprogramming a positive impact on regional growth?","authors":"Fabio Mazzola,&nbsp;Debora Gambina","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The European cohesion policy aims at fostering long-run growth. This paper, for the first time, empirically evaluates the impacts of Structural Funds re-programming on regional growth, for the Italian case during 2007–20 period. The re-programming was due to the redirection of allocated amounts facing urgent needs related to the Great Recession, Covid-19 and natural disasters. We estimate impulse response functions through Jordà local projections. We find a robust negative effect of re-programming on regional growth starting three years after the planned shock and sectoral heterogeneity. Our empirical results discourage the Funds’ redirection towards a different use from original goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 1-29"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is there worldwide convergence toward the SDGs?
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.002
Simona Bigerna, Silvia Micheli
{"title":"Is there worldwide convergence toward the SDGs?","authors":"Simona Bigerna,&nbsp;Silvia Micheli","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are an unprecedented guide to addressing sustainability challenges globally. A central issue in sustainable development debate is represented by the convergence problem. The aim of our paper is to construct a policy analysis model that can be used to examine the cross-country convergence processes with respect to the achievement of SDGs toward the goals, based on the theory of sigma-convergence and beta-convergence The analysis covers 190 countries from 2000 to 2022 and the convergence is estimated with both ordinary least square and Arellano-Bond methods. Factors affecting the multivariate convergence process are shown. Our analysis contributes to policy-shaping to redefine strategies that allows the SDGs to be achieved, highlighting the need to define concrete and measurable objectives, with qualitative and quantitative methods at national levels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 97-117"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring policy responses to labour-saving technologies: An assessment of basic income, job guarantee, and working time reduction
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.001
Simone D’Alessandro , Tiziano Distefano , Guilherme Spinato Morlin , Davide Villani
{"title":"Exploring policy responses to labour-saving technologies: An assessment of basic income, job guarantee, and working time reduction","authors":"Simone D’Alessandro ,&nbsp;Tiziano Distefano ,&nbsp;Guilherme Spinato Morlin ,&nbsp;Davide Villani","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines policy responses to labor-saving technologies, focusing on employment and income inequality. Using the EUROGREEN model, we assess three scenarios: basic income, job guarantee, and working time reduction. The job guarantee scheme effectively reduces unemployment but raises the fiscal deficit, while working time reduction improves wage share, cuts deficits, and reduces inequality. Basic income has a moderate impact on unemployment but significantly reduces inequality but is accompanied by higher deficits. A wealth tax could help finance these policies and contribute to inequality reduction. This research provides novel insights to policymakers by demonstrating how a strategic mix of labour policies can improve socio-economic outcomes in the face of technological-induced job disruptions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 49-63"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflation's dual impact on European banks' profitability
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.004
Renata Karkowska , Zbigniew Korzeb , Paweł Niedziółka
{"title":"Inflation's dual impact on European banks' profitability","authors":"Renata Karkowska ,&nbsp;Zbigniew Korzeb ,&nbsp;Paweł Niedziółka","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Geopolitical risks have sharply heightened inflationary pressures across global economies, posing significant challenges to the banking sector. This study investigates the complex impact of inflation on banks, focusing on the dual effect of rising inflation on bank performance. On one hand, our analysis of 196 commercial banks from 31 European countries reveals that inflation drives an increase in both interest and non-interest incomes, bolstering banks' revenue streams. On the other hand, this same inflationary pressure leads to a deterioration in efficiency ratios, indicating a decline in operational efficiency. This paradox highlights a critical issue for the banking sector: while banks may experience short-term revenue gains, their overall efficiency suffers, potentially undermining long-term stability. Our findings underscore the importance of coordinated monetary and macroprudential policies to mitigate these effects and suggest that supervisory policies favoring consolidation initiatives could offer a pathway to enhanced efficiency in an inflationary environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 64-77"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
New rules, new game? The effects of the away goals rule removal and video assistant referee adoption on game dynamics in UEFA Champions League ties
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.003
Mustafa Yildirim , Mustafa Erhan Bilman
{"title":"New rules, new game? The effects of the away goals rule removal and video assistant referee adoption on game dynamics in UEFA Champions League ties","authors":"Mustafa Yildirim ,&nbsp;Mustafa Erhan Bilman","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of two recent rule changes in European soccer: the abolition of the away goals rule (AGR) and the introduction of the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) system. Specifically, it examines how these changes affect game dynamics, focusing on playing style indicators and disciplinary outcomes within the UEFA Champions League. We collect data on 1244 two-legged ties (2488 individual matches), spanning the seasons from the start of 2000/01 to the play-off stage of 2023/24. By analyzing the data at both the aggregate tie and individual leg levels and controlling for an extensive array of confounding variables, we challenge UEFA’s rationale for discontinuing the AGR. Contrary to UEFA’s justification for its removal, our findings reveal that the AGR promotes offensive rather than defensive play. Our findings regarding the VAR accord with the predominant view in the literature: less referee bias against away teams and increased aversion to risky tackles, hence, fewer disciplinary infractions. Given that the ties played under the AGR are found to be more competitive and thus more entertaining, our key policy implication is that UEFA should consider reinstating the AGR. Our results also suggest that the VAR should remain in place as it stimulates fairness and rule-abiding play.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 78-96"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of government domestic borrowing on monetary policy rate pass-through in Tanzania
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.003
Enock Mwakalila
{"title":"Impact of government domestic borrowing on monetary policy rate pass-through in Tanzania","authors":"Enock Mwakalila","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The central bank should be able to play a role in an economy through monetary policy. Controlling the interest rate is a key monetary policy instrument the central bank uses. Increasing government borrowing from domestic commercial banks in Tanzania may counteract this instrument and its intended impact. Thus, this study empirically analyzes how government debt to commercial banks affects the transmission of monetary policy rates to lending rates in Tanzania. Quarterly time series data is collected from 2010 to 2023. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model estimation with a bound cointegration test is used to establish the short and long-run relationship, and the results are subjected to diagnostic tests for robustness. The results show that increasing government borrowing from domestic commercial banks prevents the trickle-down effect of the monetary policy (repo) rate on lending rates. Therefore, the study recommends that the government reduce domestic borrowings to fund its budget deficit, especially spending on projects that the private sector can implement better.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 150-165"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Policy lessons from green gdp convergence over five decades: Enhancing sustainability and economic outcomes
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.08.002
Saša Stjepanović , Daniel Tomić , Marinko Škare
{"title":"Policy lessons from green gdp convergence over five decades: Enhancing sustainability and economic outcomes","authors":"Saša Stjepanović ,&nbsp;Daniel Tomić ,&nbsp;Marinko Škare","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.08.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.08.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes the convergence of Green GDP among 160 countries from 1970 to 2019, emphasizing the pivotal role of environmental policies in shaping sustainable economic outcomes. By comparing traditional and Green GDP (includes environmental degradation), this paper identifies distinct economic clusters or “convergence clubs” and reveals how policy-driven changes influence these classifications. The findings highlight the significant impact of environmental policies on economic convergence and propose applicative policy recommendations to foster sustainable growth, making this study essential for policymakers engaged in economic and environmental planning. This study demonstrates the long-term convergence of the selected countries' economic growth, influenced by their disparate commitments to sustainable practices and regulatory frameworks that govern environmental protection. Thus, regardless of the variations across countries and their environmental policies, diverse economic strategies tend to produce similar outcomes in the long term.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 187-210"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does financial development improve the effect of public health expenditure on out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in the WAEMU?
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.003
Jacques Boundioa , Souleymane Diallo
{"title":"Does financial development improve the effect of public health expenditure on out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in the WAEMU?","authors":"Jacques Boundioa ,&nbsp;Souleymane Diallo","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3, namely to ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all, it is important to have a sustainable health expenditure model. However, countries in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) are characterized by higher levels of out-of-pocket payments for healthcare. This situation limits access to medical care, makes many people vulnerable to poverty and deviates from the goal of universal health coverage (UHC). This article analyzes the effect of public health expenditure on out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in WAEMU over the period 2000–2020 by taking into account financial development. With the quantile regression technique for panel data, the results show that the increase in public health expenditure leads to a reduction in out-of-pocket payments for healthcare. Moreover, the decrease becomes more significant when public health expenditure interacts with financial development. Thus, improving protection against financial risk related to health expenditure borne by households in the WAEMU requires the establishment of a well-developed health financing system oriented towards an increase in public health expenditure. Policies aimed at further developing the financial sector could have a multiplier effect on the reduction of out-of-pocket payments for healthcare through public expenditure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 228-249"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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