Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

Overeducation under different macroeconomic conditions: How Spanish university graduates fit in the labor market? 不同宏观经济条件下的过度教育：西班牙大学毕业生如何适应劳动力市场？

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.001

Maite Blázquez Cuesta, Marco A. Pérez Navarro, Rocío Sánchez-Mangas

{"title":"Overeducation under different macroeconomic conditions: How Spanish university graduates fit in the labor market?","authors":"Maite Blázquez Cuesta, Marco A. Pérez Navarro, Rocío Sánchez-Mangas","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes a relevant issue for education and labor policymakers, overeducation in the early careers of university graduates. Using Spanish data, we investigate the role played by the business cycle and field of study and their interaction in shaping both the incidence and persistence of overeducation. We also analyze the relevance of specific types of knowledge and skills as driving factors in reducing overeducation risk. Our data come from the Survey on the Labor Insertion of University Graduates (EILU) conducted by the Spanish National Statistics Institute in 2014 and 2019. The survey collects rich information on cohorts that graduated in 2019 and 2014, during the Great Recession and the subsequent economic recovery, respectively. Our results show, first, the relevance of the economic scenario when graduates enter the labor market. Graduation during a recession increases overeducation risk and persistence. Second, a clear heterogeneous pattern is observed across fields of study, with health sciences graduates displaying better performance in terms of both overeducation incidence and persistence and less impact of the business cycle. Third, we find evidence that some transversal skills can help to reduce overeducation risk in the absence of specific knowledge required for the job, thus indicating some kind of compensatory role. Our findings have important policy implications. Overeducation, and more importantly overeducation persistence, imply a non-neglectable misallocation of resources, with serious consequences not only for the affected individuals but for the society as a whole. Therefore, policymakers need to address this issue in the design of education and labor market policies, seeking to ensure that the competencies acquired at university provide graduates with a better fit in the labor market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 2","pages":"Pages 448-470"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Education Expenditures and Growth: Is R&D the link? 教育支出与增长：研发是其中的联系吗？

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.003

Danai Diakodimitriou , Alexandros Tsioutsios , Theofanis Papageorgiou

引用次数: 0

Politically optimal lockdowns with vaccine hesitancy: Theory and evidence from Switzerland 政治上最优的封锁与疫苗犹豫：来自瑞士的理论和证据

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.005

Petar Stankov

引用次数: 0

Energy price increases and mitigation policies: Redistributive effects on Italian households 能源价格上涨与缓解政策：对意大利家庭的再分配效应

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.006

Andrea Bonfatti , Elena Giarda

引用次数: 0

The multiple impact of remittances on poverty in developing countries: Direct effects and through human capital 汇款对发展中国家贫困的多重影响：直接影响和通过人力资本的影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.02.002

Pablo A. Garcia-Fuentes , P. Lynn Kennedy , William R. Ash

引用次数: 0

The effectiveness of fiscal policy in DR Congo: Spending and taxing for macroeconomic impact 刚果民主共和国财政政策的有效性：支出和税收对宏观经济的影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.002

M'pya Banza M , Mumbere Lubula E , Kamala Kaghoma C

{"title":"The effectiveness of fiscal policy in DR Congo: Spending and taxing for macroeconomic impact","authors":"M'pya Banza M , Mumbere Lubula E , Kamala Kaghoma C","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), focusing on its impact on GDP, aggregate demand, private consumption, and investment. Employing a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with Bayesian estimation, the study accounts for the distinct dynamics of Ricardian and non-Ricardian households within the DRC’s socio-economic context. The results indicate that public investment expenditures significantly enhance GDP and household consumption, while current expenditures often fail to stimulate aggregate demand due to corruption and inefficiencies. Conversely, tax reductions are shown to positively influence macroeconomic variables, underlining their importance in fiscal policy design. The findings highlight the critical role of well-targeted fiscal strategies in promoting economic stability and growth in developing economies. Policy recommendations emphasize prioritizing public investment, implementing tax reforms during economic downturns, and addressing systemic corruption to maximize fiscal policy’s macroeconomic impact.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 2","pages":"Pages 298-321"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Right-wing election success and European Banks: Evidence from the 2024 European Elections 右翼选举成功与欧洲银行：来自2024年欧洲选举的证据

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.004

Markus Tiemann

引用次数: 0

Interest subvention for crop loans in India: Win-win or win-lose ? 印度农作物贷款利息补贴：双赢还是双输？

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.006

Disha Bhanot , Vivek Farias , Deeksha Sinha

{"title":"Interest subvention for crop loans in India: Win-win or win-lose ?","authors":"Disha Bhanot , Vivek Farias , Deeksha Sinha","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>Interest subsidies on crop loans are a common feature of rural credit markets in developing countries. The objective behind giving interest subsidies is two-fold – increasing access to credit and improving loan repayment<span> rates, and is therefore regarded as a win-win for the borrower and the lender. This study focusses on a policy intervention that provides interest subsidy for crop loans availed under the Kisan Credit Card (KCC) scheme - India's flagship program to provide short-term agricultural credit for farmers. Using a unique dataset from a large public sector bank in India, we evaluate the causal impact of this intervention on both credit access and loan repayment behavior. We also capture the heterogeneous impact of the policy on new and existing borrowers. The results of econometric analysis - a combination of matching and difference-in-difference techniques - show a substantial increase (35%) in new loans, in addition to 20% decrease in the overall loan amount, indicating increased breadth and depth of access. However, contrary to standard </span></span>economic theories<span>, we observe a reduction in odds of repayment. Further, we find that the interest rate subsidy worsens the repayment rates of existing borrowers too. Our findings underscore the importance of various operational and behavioral aspects of the agricultural lending ecosystem to design win-win credit policies.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 2","pages":"Pages 371-393"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141152982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modelling global water policies 模拟全球水资源政策

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.010

Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo , Richard Damania

{"title":"Modelling global water policies","authors":"Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo , Richard Damania","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article develops an analysis of evolving water availability through a novel global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model that moves beyond existing approaches by incorporating both precipitation and total water storage (TWS)– a more comprehensive measure of water availability encompassing surface water, groundwater, and soil moisture. To this aim, the article first provides an overview of the problem of economic modelling of water in a general equilibrium context, through a review of CGE models that have attempted to deal with water as a key economic input and its direct and indirect influence on markets and well-being. Secondly, it includes the health effects of inadequate water supply and sanitation (WASH), capturing a key dimension of water availability and its distributional effects. Third, it provides a granular representation of how water enters in the different value chains, providing novel suggestions and a better understanding of how water widespread influence across sectors may contribute to a more significant impact of climate change than estimated by other studies. Simulations are employed to evaluate the costs associated with policy inaction under various water scenarios, including those influenced by climate change, offering crucial guidance for proactive policy interventions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 2","pages":"Pages 407-427"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The intractability of public debt in post-independent Zimbabwe: An international comparison 独立后津巴布韦棘手的公共债务：一个国际比较

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.009

Freeman Munisi Mateko , Barbra Maiwasha , Emmanuel Tsara

{"title":"The intractability of public debt in post-independent Zimbabwe: An international comparison","authors":"Freeman Munisi Mateko , Barbra Maiwasha , Emmanuel Tsara","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How has public and publicly guaranteed debt in post-independent Zimbabwe relentlessly spiralled over time? The mixed method study aimed to determine the causes and effects that have triggered a debt crisis in Zimbabwe. Descriptive data on public debt was obtained from the World Bank portal for the period 1980–2022. The research used documentary evidence obtained from online repositories. Documentary analysis was used under the data analysis section. Research findings indicated that high public debt was a result of continuous borrowing from financial institutions, corruption, weak institutions, non-adherence to the available legal frameworks, unbudgeted expenditures, as well as a lack of transparency and accountability in public debt management. It was also established that unsustainable public debt in Zimbabwe led to slow economic growth and a loss of creditworthiness status. The novelty of the research is on the basis of examining the causes and effects of public debt as well as providing solutions. These research findings imply that Zimbabwe must reduce its public debt levels in order to improve its capacity to meet macro-economic objectives and attain sustainable development goals. In terms of policy recommendations, it was suggested that there is a need for implementing public debt policy, debt transparency, a strong commitment to deal with corruption, responsible and restrained government borrowing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 2","pages":"Pages 394-406"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0