Emerta Aragie, Xinshen Diao, David J. Spielman, James Thurlow
{"title":"The economywide recovery measures in Rwanda during the COVID-19 pandemic: How useful a lesson?","authors":"Emerta Aragie, Xinshen Diao, David J. Spielman, James Thurlow","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) immediately introduced strict public health measures to contain the spread of infection. The economic consequences of these measures were negative and often large in magnitude, necessitating the rapid introduction of economic relief and recovery measures to reinvigorate economic growth and safeguard affected households. Rwanda stands out among other LMICs both for its effective public health policy response and its adaptive economic policy response to COVID-19. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Rwanda, this paper assesses the economywide and welfare impacts of these policy measures and contextualizes results within the overall policy response to COVID-19. Modeling results generated at an early stage of Rwanda’s pandemic experience indicated that relief and recovery measures introduced in 2020 could mitigate COVID-19′s recessionary effects by about 0.8 % points of total GDP, help to recover about 115,000 jobs and, through cash transfers, significantly reduce income losses among poorer households, with total benefits from the measures exceeded their cost by a ratio of 2.2. These results demonstrate the widely replicable value of economywide modeling when used in a timely manner and when positioned within a policymaking process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1103-1124"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fiscal stance role for ECB monetary policy","authors":"Linas Jurkšas , Francisco Gomes Pereira","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The objective of this paper is to ascertain the presence of a crucial connection between euro area fiscal stance and ECB monetary policy. To achieve this, we employ the thick modelling approach for the Generalised method of moments to estimate ECB reaction functions with and without a projected fiscal deficit indicator from 2001 until 2022. The results reveal that the actions of the ECB have exhibited desirable effects of stabilising monetary policy, while the projected fiscal deficit was usually not statistically significant in explaining the ECB’s monetary policy stance. However, the sign of fiscal deficit coefficient was positive, implying a counter-cyclical nature of monetary policy with respect to the fiscal stance. This effect has become more evident since 2012, suggesting that the ECB might be taking into account euro area fiscal deficits as providing some indications for potential inflationary risks. Overall, these findings speak against the fiscal dominance or repression regime being prevalent in the euro area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1210-1227"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141883858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Harmonizing economic and environmental costs in the CAP to improve efficiency and effectiveness of policies","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The recent CAP aims at better targeting beneficiaries and being more selective in its objectives. This has drawn attention to how policies interact with resources used by farms in terms of both economic and environmental costs. Conditional Process Models under Structural Equation Modeling framework may offer statistical indications on these complex interactions. The proposed model, called SMIRNE, is applied to an Italian macro-area at severe risk of land pollution (Pianura Padana) caused by livestock sector. Results show a more substantial support from pillar I policies than those provided by pillar II in addressing a relevant response of policies to the economic and environmental costs of the livestock activities with reference to the use of land.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 5","pages":"Pages 1055-1069"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893824000607/pdfft?md5=a67d7421c0478fc235eed74a45a79685&pid=1-s2.0-S0161893824000607-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141389704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How do carbon prices spill over along global supply chains? The impact on Europe and Germany","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper uses a multisector, multiregional general equilibrium input-output model to study the spillovers of global carbon pricing to Germany and Europe. It uses the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to calibrate the intersectoral trade between seven regions and 56 economic sectors per region as well as EXIOBASE’s sectoral accounts of greenhouse gas emissions to calibrate emission costs. We find that moving from European-only to global carbon prices does neither reduce nor increase the aggregate GDP loss for Germany or Europe as a whole. However, this masks a large degree of heterogeneity across sectors. Sectors that rely on foreign sectors, which are themselves sensitive to the transition, experience large negative spillovers from global carbon pricing. Other sectors, even those with a high emission or trade intensity, tend to benefit from global carbon pricing due to an improvement in international competitiveness.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 5","pages":"Pages 887-907"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893824000322/pdfft?md5=5696e171a1e68ab74ba6ef647fc32716&pid=1-s2.0-S0161893824000322-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140576932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Immigration and the distribution of income, consumption and wealth in the euro area: Implications for economic policies","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use representative data from household surveys in the euro area to describe differences in wages, income, consumption, wealth<span> and liquid assets between households born in their country of residence (“natives”) and those born in other EU and non-EU countries (“immigrants”). The differences in wealth<span> and liquid assets are more substantial than the differences in wages, income and consumption: immigrants earn on average about 30% lower wages than natives and hold roughly 60% less net wealth. For all variables, only a small fraction of differences between natives and immigrants—around 30%—can be explained by differences in demographics (age, gender, marital status, education, occupation, sector of employment). Immigrants are more likely to be liquidity constrained: while we classify 17% of natives as “hand-to-mouth” (they hold liquid assets worth less than two weeks of their income), the corresponding share is 20% for households born in another EU country and 29% for those born outside the EU. Employment rates of immigrants are substantially more sensitive to fluctuations in aggregate employment. We discuss the implications of these findings for economic policies, including monetary, fiscal and pre-distribution policies.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 5","pages":"Pages 867-886"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139921013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Is bribery a conscious, strategic and rational choice? Impact on firms’ growth in India","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study, utilising data from the World Bank Enterprise<span> Survey, probes the diverse effects of bribery on the growth of firms in India. The central question we ask is: what motivates certain firms to engage in bribery while others abstain? Employing the endogenous switching regression model, we aim to uncover the intricacies of this heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that bribery can facilitate growth, yet there is substantial heterogeneity in its impact on firms. The impact varies across firm groups: it positively influences those engaging in bribery, while non-bribers would have experienced adverse effects if they had engaged in bribery. Thus, we observe that firms’ decision to dis(engage) in bribery is influenced by the returns they derive from such a decision. This suggests that firms’ decision to (dis)engage in bribery is a conscious, strategic and rational one, driven by choice rather than coercion.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 5","pages":"Pages 1000-1019"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141553083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fed and ECB reaction functions during quantitative easing: Three phases of monetary policy, both conventional and unconventional","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Studying monetary authority response to macroeconomic<span><span> imbalances using the interest rate as a proxy variable for monetary policy became ineffective after the financial crisis, when central banks exhausted the effective capacity of interest rates by reaching the </span>zero lower bound (ZLB). In an effort to analyse the unconventional response deployed by central banks, we present and estimate a modified reaction function that uses money supply as the operational instrument of monetary policy for the Federal Reserve and the </span></span>European Central Bank, and we verify its utility as an explanatory instrument for the behaviour of the two monetary authorities. By applying our strategy, it is feasible to identify both monetary policy reaction with regard to the economic situation as well as other possible monetary authority concerns regarding governments’ fiscal behaviour and the evolution of asset markets, regardless of the monetary policy applied at any given time.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 5","pages":"Pages 928-945"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140280705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Policy steps in the federal budget and health care to achieve sustainable fiscal conditions in the U.S.","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Health care spending has grown significantly in the US, and is a major cause of rising federal deficits. Official projections find that low economic growth and aging of the population will lead to a modest continuation of this situation, but they miss that labor shortages have a particular impact on inefficient sectors, raising the cost of health care. We develop a unified macroeconomic model to address this shortcoming, with key variables—particularly in the health care sector and interest rates—endogenously determined. We find that the current fiscal trajectory of the US is unsustainable, with future deficits and debt well beyond both historical norms and official projections. Policy steps, focusing on reducing health care spending, increasing capital, and fiscal retrenchment, can lead to sustainable fiscal conditions and raise living standards that will otherwise fall.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 5","pages":"Pages 985-999"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141396961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The macroeconomic impact of structural reforms: The case of Italy","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>We propose a methodology to map structural reforms from granular data to an aggregate model, exploring their transmission mechanisms and their macroeconomic and social impacts. The study focuses on the rich case of the reforms associated with the Italian Recovery and Resilience Plan. We document a significant potential impact on medium- and long-term GDP and find that the </span>labour market and education measures are the main drivers of the impact on GDP and employment. We also examine the distributional impact of the reforms on the functional income distribution.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 5","pages":"Pages 946-963"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140935748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How effective is equality regulation in reducing gender gaps in the labor market?☆","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The gender gap in both employment and labour participation<span> has narrowed markedly in recent decades in Spain. However, this decline seems to have slowed and shows a certain persistence. The solution to this problem can respond to different regulatory or non-regulatory policies. This article studies the evolution of the regulatory framework for the formulation of possible policy recommendations. We identify and quantify for the first time when, at what rate and in what regions, Spanish administrations have adopted regulations aimed at combating discrimination against women, achieving gender equality or approved measures related to the work-life balance. The study is based on a text analysis of 297,402 regulations adopted in the period 1996–2022. The indicators reveal the high degree of heterogeneity in terms of the legislation. Non-discrimination legislation was the most developed and frequent, with 11,228 regional regulations and 2590 central administration regulations adopted. We show that the volume of new regulations, mainly those related to discrimination and work-life balance, has contributed to the reduction in gender gaps. Policy actions by administrations should concentrate on these two modes of intervention. The general analysis of regulation in this area also allows for some recommendations in terms of “better regulation” policies, such as the introduction of gender equality assessments (specific regulatory impact reports).</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 5","pages":"Pages 823-846"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141053420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}