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Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

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The relevance of development policies to confront crisis situations: World Bank’s early response to Covid-19 应对危机局势的发展政策的相关性：世界银行对 Covid-19 的早期响应
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.007
{"title":"The relevance of development policies to confront crisis situations: World Bank’s early response to Covid-19","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Evaluating the relevance of development policies<span> is a complex task as many different dimensions must be considered. By focusing on one particular, quantifiable aspect of relevance, this study proposes a new method for generating data-driven evidence that can be used both for assessing the relevance of international development policies<span> ex post, and for guiding decisions about future strategic priorities. For this purpose, relevance is defined as the match between (i) the types and scopes of support provided and (ii) the types and scopes of support most needed in a given context, according to measurable indicators (proxies). The latter is operationalized using a multidimensional vulnerability score constructed based on a set of empirical indicators commonly argued to proxy vulnerability to shocks. Comparing the vulnerability score with the sector-specific allocation of support yields two empirical measures of relevance, one at the country level and one at the sector level within each country. The proposed method is then applied to evaluate the relevance of the World Bank Group’s early response to Covid-19 across 133 countries. At the same time, many of the modeling insights are more broadly applicable and may also be useful in informing evaluations of development policies beyond the specific application considered here.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141137234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Transitionning and the trinity nexus: Scenarios from a small country 非洲农村的创业精神和能源效率：一个小国的政策教训
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.004
{"title":"Transitionning and the trinity nexus: Scenarios from a small country","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The energy issue in both developed and developing countries remains vital. However, in developing countries, energy pressure is much greater. Despite this, few studies have examined credit, entrepreneurship, and energy transition in developing countries. We addressed this research gap by using the data collected from six regions in Burkina Faso. Employing the multivariate probit and the endogenous switching probit model<span>, three scenarios are explored. We find that entrepreneurship promotes energy transition while access to credit is not useful to the energy transition. However, the joint effect of access to credit and entrepreneurship is 4 times higher for solar PV use and 3 times for biogas adoption. Access to credit promotes the energy transition when credit is devolved to the entrepreneur supporting the trinity rather than the trilemma.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141045128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
European VAT collection under the stress: Best to use few reduced rates 欧洲增值税征收面临压力：最好使用少数降低的税率
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.007
Alžběta Dytrychová, Hana Zídková, Markéta Arltová
{"title":"European VAT collection under the stress: Best to use few reduced rates","authors":"Alžběta Dytrychová, Hana Zídková, Markéta Arltová","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.007","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyses the effectiveness of the VAT system in European countries. Higher values of the effective VAT rate reduce the Policy gap but increase the Compliance gap. A higher effective VAT rate consisting of a relatively low standard rate and few reduced rates improves overall efficiency by reducing the Policy Gap more than increasing the Compliance Gap. Our recommendation is to use as few reduced rates as possible. As for the effect of the standard rate itself, we have found that it does not increase tax evasion in the new Member States, unlike the number of VAT rates.","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142205825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ghana and the IMF: Policy shifts, economic bailouts and macroeconomic outcomes 加纳与国际货币基金组织：政策转变、经济救助和宏观经济成果
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.006
Suale Karimu
{"title":"Ghana and the IMF: Policy shifts, economic bailouts and macroeconomic outcomes","authors":"Suale Karimu","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.006","url":null,"abstract":"Ghana has a long history of engagement with the IMF. Successive governments of Ghana have sought economic bailouts from the IMF due to worsening domestic macroeconomic stability. This paper examines Ghana’s historical engagement with the IMF and the associated macroeconomic outcomes, and offers lessons for economic restructuring and growth beyond the bailouts. The paper explores the common patterns of the key macroeconomic variables and possible latent causal effects. The results reveal intermittent and short-term effects of the IMF programs. The bailouts often have a short-term impact on macroeconomic stability and growth, but the effects are unsustainable in the long term, especially after the IMF program ends.","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142205826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does local non-farm income moderate the intensity of climate change induced migration in India? 印度当地的非农收入是否减缓了气候变化引起的移民强度？
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.005
Gauri Sreekumar, Sabuj Kumar Mandal, Anviksha Drall
{"title":"Does local non-farm income moderate the intensity of climate change induced migration in India?","authors":"Gauri Sreekumar, Sabuj Kumar Mandal, Anviksha Drall","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.005","url":null,"abstract":"While the existing literature has well documented the effects of climate change on migration, very little is known about the moderating impact of local non-farm income. In this context, the paper combines real time weather data provided by Indian Meteorological Department with a very rich household data on Indian states belonging to the eastern and semi-arid tropic regions collected by ICRISAT to investigate whether farmers always resort to migration or take it up as a second-best option only after they fail to diversify locally. Using recursive econometric model, it is observed that households first try to diversify their income by engaging in local non-farm activities and availability of local non-farm income further moderates the effect of climate change induced yield loss on migration. High levels of migration may result in welfare loss and affect urban sustainable development, and the decision to migrate is often challenging as it necessitates leaving behind social and community networks. Therefore, our findings offer valuable insights and discusses important policy recommendations towards improving the access to local non-farm activities.","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142205827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The economywide recovery measures in Rwanda during the COVID-19 pandemic: How useful a lesson? 卢旺达在 COVID-19 大流行期间采取的全经济复苏措施：有多大借鉴意义？
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.004
Emerta Aragie, Xinshen Diao, David J. Spielman, James Thurlow
{"title":"The economywide recovery measures in Rwanda during the COVID-19 pandemic: How useful a lesson?","authors":"Emerta Aragie, Xinshen Diao, David J. Spielman, James Thurlow","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.004","url":null,"abstract":"In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) immediately introduced strict public health measures to contain the spread of infection. The economic consequences of these measures were negative and often large in magnitude, necessitating the rapid introduction of economic relief and recovery measures to reinvigorate economic growth and safeguard affected households. Rwanda stands out among other LMICs both for its effective public health policy response and its adaptive economic policy response to COVID-19. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Rwanda, this paper assesses the economywide and welfare impacts of these policy measures and contextualizes results within the overall policy response to COVID-19. Modeling results generated at an early stage of Rwanda’s pandemic experience indicated that relief and recovery measures introduced in 2020 could mitigate COVID-19′s recessionary effects by about 0.8 % points of total GDP, help to recover about 115,000 jobs and, through cash transfers, significantly reduce income losses among poorer households, with total benefits from the measures exceeded their cost by a ratio of 2.2. These results demonstrate the widely replicable value of economywide modeling when used in a timely manner and when positioned within a policymaking process.","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal stance role for ECB monetary policy 财政立场对欧洲央行货币政策的作用
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.008
Linas Jurkšas, Francisco Gomes Pereira
{"title":"Fiscal stance role for ECB monetary policy","authors":"Linas Jurkšas, Francisco Gomes Pereira","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.008","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this paper is to ascertain the presence of a crucial connection between euro area fiscal stance and ECB monetary policy. To achieve this, we employ the thick modelling approach for the Generalised method of moments to estimate ECB reaction functions with and without a projected fiscal deficit indicator from 2001 until 2022. The results reveal that the actions of the ECB have exhibited desirable effects of stabilising monetary policy, while the projected fiscal deficit was usually not statistically significant in explaining the ECB’s monetary policy stance. However, the sign of fiscal deficit coefficient was positive, implying a counter-cyclical nature of monetary policy with respect to the fiscal stance. This effect has become more evident since 2012, suggesting that the ECB might be taking into account euro area fiscal deficits as providing some indications for potential inflationary risks. Overall, these findings speak against the fiscal dominance or repression regime being prevalent in the euro area.","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141883858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Energy price increases and mitigation policies: Redistributive effects on Italian households 能源价格上涨与缓解政策：对意大利家庭的再分配效应
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.006
Andrea Bonfatti, Elena Giarda
{"title":"Energy price increases and mitigation policies: Redistributive effects on Italian households","authors":"Andrea Bonfatti, Elena Giarda","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.006","url":null,"abstract":"Between July 2021 and March 2023, the Italian government acted to support households’ and individuals’ incomes to help them cope with the exceptional energy and food prices surge, by means of both tariff and income-based fiscal policy measures. In this paper, we perform a microsimulation exercise to quantify the effects of the price increases and of the policy interventions on household expenditure and income. Our results indicate that the regressive impact of the price rises was mitigated by the fiscal measures, which also succeeded in reducing inequality, at risk of poverty and energy poverty. We also observe the relevant role of income-based measures in the South of the country.","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141609572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improving waste collectors' environmental responsibilities in Indonesia: A policy framework 改善印度尼西亚废物收集者的环境责任：政策框架
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.005
Made Adi Widyatmika, Nomesh B. Bolia
{"title":"Improving waste collectors' environmental responsibilities in Indonesia: A policy framework","authors":"Made Adi Widyatmika, Nomesh B. Bolia","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.005","url":null,"abstract":"The responsibility of the garbage collector officer towards the environment largely determines the reliability of the waste management system. The study develops a policy framework for a waste management system using an SEM approach to the environmental responsibility of a garbage collector officer. From a case study in Indonesia, a survey of 246 formal waste collectors in Denpasar’s waste management system assessed their opinion of the internal service quality. The analysis determines the impact of internal service quality elements on job satisfaction and environmental responsibility. Model-fit statistics confirm the validity and reliability of the model and indicate that tangibility, reliability, assurance, and empathy positively affect job satisfaction. Meanwhile, management responsiveness does not have a statistically significant effect. The study suggests that waste management should acknowledge the indirect influence of internal service quality on the environmental responsibility of waste collectors through job satisfaction factors.","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141553082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Recent changes in the structure of U.S. imports from China implications for the future 美国从中国进口产品结构的最新变化 对未来的影响 *
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.004
Andrew R. Blair
{"title":"Recent changes in the structure of U.S. imports from China implications for the future","authors":"Andrew R. Blair","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.004","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141695003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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