Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献_第2页

Policy implications of losing credibility: Lessons from Colombia’s post-pandemic inflation 丧失信誉的政策影响：哥伦比亚大流行后通货膨胀的教训

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107064

Anderson Grajales-Olarte, Franz Hamann, Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, José Pulido

引用次数: 0

Macroeconomic and sectoral effects of subsidies to smaller enterprises: The experience in Peru 对小企业补贴的宏观经济和部门影响：秘鲁的经验

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.004

E.R. Huamaní, M.A. Tamayo

{"title":"Macroeconomic and sectoral effects of subsidies to smaller enterprises: The experience in Peru","authors":"E.R. Huamaní, M.A. Tamayo","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study uses a general equilibrium<span><span> model to assess the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of a subsidy for industrial </span>MSMEs<span> integration (SIMI) in Peru. The findings show that SIMI reduces the cost of manufacturing MSME-produced inputs, encouraging domestic firms to source from these enterprises instead of relying on imports or larger competitors, thereby addressing demand-side constraints. This cost reduction increases MSMEs’ input sales, expanding their domestic market presence, while larger industries<span><span><span> shift towards international markets to leverage their improved competitiveness. The analysis identifies a pronounced expansion in the manufacturing and tertiary sectors as a result of SIMI, while the primary sector experiences a contraction due to its comparatively lower reliance on manufactured inputs. Furthermore, the study highlights that SIMI’s efficacy depends on the degree of substitutability between inputs produced by </span>MSMEs and large enterprises, as a higher degree of substitutability fosters deeper MSME integration and accelerates industrial growth. Finally, while SIMI fosters economic growth and bolsters national competitiveness, its implementation raises critical fiscal </span>sustainability concerns, necessitating judicious policy design and complementary measures to ensure long-term viability.</span></span></span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 106971"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148478553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sustainable growth in South Africa through the asymmetric effects of oil prices and economic policy uncertainty 南非通过油价的不对称效应和经济政策的不确定性实现可持续增长

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.12.004

Ahmed Samour, Stephen Kelechi Dimnwobi, Brahim Bergougui

引用次数: 0

Caught in the crossfire: Livelihood, employment and forced displacement in Nigeria 陷入战火：尼日利亚的生计、就业和被迫流离失所

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107040

Jamilu Babangida, Anita Staneva, Parvinder Kler

引用次数: 0

Temporal asymmetries in monetary transmission: Implications for interest rate policies 货币传导中的时间不对称：对利率政策的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107045

Piero Garcia , Ricardo Quineche , Juan Zapata

引用次数: 0

Inequality of opportunity in education: Insights on native and immigrant students in France 教育中的机会不平等：对法国本土和移民学生的观察

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107051

Raffaele Lagravinese , Adèle Verron

{"title":"Inequality of opportunity in education: Insights on native and immigrant students in France","authors":"Raffaele Lagravinese , Adèle Verron","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107051","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107051","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the educational inequality of opportunity (EIoP) between native and immigrant students in France before and during the pandemic using data from the 2018 and 2022 cycles of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). By applying the Oaxaca- Blinder decomposition technique, the study also identifies the key factors contributing to educational disparities, focusing on individual characteristics, socioeconomic background and home environment. The results show that immigrant students consistently underperform compared to native students across all subjects, with the largest gaps observed in science and reading. However, it seems that France’s proactive response, particularly the quick return of students to school, helped prevent the deepening of the pre-existing gap in educational performance be- tween these two groups. Despite this intervention, pre-existing EIoP persisted, driven by systemic factors such as language proficiency and reading access, which remained unaffected by the pandemic. These deeply embedded factors continued to shape EIoP in France, even in the face of a significant shock like COVID-19. Additionally, the analysis reveals that EIoP are influenced by school location, with students in urban areas generally performing better than those in rural areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 3","pages":"Article 107051"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147994694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Trump's tariff flip-flops and potential effects on Canada's economic growth 特朗普的关税政策反复无常以及对加拿大经济增长的潜在影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107050

Mohammad Salahuddin , Khairul Alom , Delwar Akbar , William Wei , Mehe Z. Rahman

{"title":"Trump's tariff flip-flops and potential effects on Canada's economic growth","authors":"Mohammad Salahuddin , Khairul Alom , Delwar Akbar , William Wei , Mehe Z. Rahman","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107050","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107050","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study attempts to forecast the potential economic growth effect of President Trump's tariff measures on the Canadian economy. To achieve this objective, it undertook a series of analytical procedures ranging from econometric estimations to model simulation. Econometric estimates (Dynamic ARDL) indicate that Canada's exports to the USA affect its economic growth. Findings were robust from DOLS estimation. Toda Yamamoto causality tests confirmed causal connectedness between them. The International Trade Closeness model shows that despite losing trade flexibility during the former Trump administration, Canadian exports to the United States were not significantly affected. Results from the Forest Simulation method provide predictions of response to tariffs on Canadian exports to the USA across multiple potential tariff scenarios ranging from 15% to 50%. Under a minimum 15% tariff rate, total exports are likely to be the highest at 58.91 units. However, if US tariffs on Canadian exports keep rising, exports are expected to decline steadily across all categories, with total exports likely to fall to 34.65 units under a 50% tariff. Canada’s retaliatory move on its imports from the USA is expected to impact its economy. A 40% tariff is expected to lead to a nearly 30% contraction in import volume. Policy implications and recommendations are discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 3","pages":"Article 107050"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147994743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A review of approaches to modelling agricultural emissions 农业排放模拟方法综述

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107049

Marco Sforza , Cristina Vaquero-Piñeiro , Luca Salvatici

{"title":"A review of approaches to modelling agricultural emissions","authors":"Marco Sforza , Cristina Vaquero-Piñeiro , Luca Salvatici","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107049","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107049","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a cornerstone of the global sustainability challenge, yet modelling their impacts for effective policy design remains complex and lacks consensus. This paper provides a comparative assessment of eight prominent simulation equilibrium models, focusing on how modellers consider agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, offering policymakers essential insights into the choice of economic tools for advising mitigation strategies. As the agricultural sector faces increasing pressure from rising emissions and new regulatory frameworks, models must evolve to capture the multi-layered interactions between regulatory and trade frameworks. The review highlights a modelling landscape where divergent treatments of agricultural inputs (land, capital, intermediate goods, and technology) lead to heterogeneous simulation results. Key findings suggest that reliance on exogenous emission coefficients and a lack of granularity in capital measurement may bias policy outcomes. For regulators, bridging these methodological gaps is critical for designing “leakage-proof” policies balancing ambitious climate targets with economic resilience and food security. Finally, more comprehensive data and interdisciplinary dialogue are required to ensure that agrifood policies are grounded in realistic, harmonised simulations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 3","pages":"Article 107049"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147994745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bridging the gap: Peru’s path towards achieving the SDGs 弥合差距：秘鲁实现可持续发展目标的道路

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107048

Alhassane Camara , Luis-Gonzalo Llosa , Babatunde Abidoye , Carlos De Los Rios , Pablo Lavado

引用次数: 0

Corporate margins and inflation during the post COVID-19 period in the Euro Area 2019冠状病毒病后欧元区企业利润率和通货膨胀率

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.12.003

Mirko Licchetta, Giovanni Mattozzi

引用次数: 0