Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献_第2页

The relevance of development policies to confront crisis situations: World Bank’s early response to Covid-19 应对危机局势的发展政策的相关性：世界银行对 Covid-19 的早期响应

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.007

{"title":"The relevance of development policies to confront crisis situations: World Bank’s early response to Covid-19","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Evaluating the relevance of development policies<span> is a complex task as many different dimensions must be considered. By focusing on one particular, quantifiable aspect of relevance, this study proposes a new method for generating data-driven evidence that can be used both for assessing the relevance of international development policies<span> ex post, and for guiding decisions about future strategic priorities. For this purpose, relevance is defined as the match between (i) the types and scopes of support provided and (ii) the types and scopes of support most needed in a given context, according to measurable indicators (proxies). The latter is operationalized using a multidimensional vulnerability score constructed based on a set of empirical indicators commonly argued to proxy vulnerability to shocks. Comparing the vulnerability score with the sector-specific allocation of support yields two empirical measures of relevance, one at the country level and one at the sector level within each country. The proposed method is then applied to evaluate the relevance of the World Bank Group’s early response to Covid-19 across 133 countries. At the same time, many of the modeling insights are more broadly applicable and may also be useful in informing evaluations of development policies beyond the specific application considered here.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141137234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Transitionning and the trinity nexus: Scenarios from a small country 非洲农村的创业精神和能源效率：一个小国的政策教训

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.004

引用次数: 0

European VAT collection under the stress: Best to use few reduced rates 欧洲增值税征收面临压力：最好使用少数降低的税率

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.007

Alžběta Dytrychová, Hana Zídková, Markéta Arltová

引用次数: 0

Ghana and the IMF: Policy shifts, economic bailouts and macroeconomic outcomes 加纳与国际货币基金组织：政策转变、经济救助和宏观经济成果

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.006

Suale Karimu

引用次数: 0

Does local non-farm income moderate the intensity of climate change induced migration in India? 印度当地的非农收入是否减缓了气候变化引起的移民强度？

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.005

Gauri Sreekumar, Sabuj Kumar Mandal, Anviksha Drall

{"title":"Does local non-farm income moderate the intensity of climate change induced migration in India?","authors":"Gauri Sreekumar, Sabuj Kumar Mandal, Anviksha Drall","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.005","url":null,"abstract":"While the existing literature has well documented the effects of climate change on migration, very little is known about the moderating impact of local non-farm income. In this context, the paper combines real time weather data provided by Indian Meteorological Department with a very rich household data on Indian states belonging to the eastern and semi-arid tropic regions collected by ICRISAT to investigate whether farmers always resort to migration or take it up as a second-best option only after they fail to diversify locally. Using recursive econometric model, it is observed that households first try to diversify their income by engaging in local non-farm activities and availability of local non-farm income further moderates the effect of climate change induced yield loss on migration. High levels of migration may result in welfare loss and affect urban sustainable development, and the decision to migrate is often challenging as it necessitates leaving behind social and community networks. Therefore, our findings offer valuable insights and discusses important policy recommendations towards improving the access to local non-farm activities.","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142205827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The economywide recovery measures in Rwanda during the COVID-19 pandemic: How useful a lesson? 卢旺达在 COVID-19 大流行期间采取的全经济复苏措施：有多大借鉴意义？

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.004

Emerta Aragie, Xinshen Diao, David J. Spielman, James Thurlow

{"title":"The economywide recovery measures in Rwanda during the COVID-19 pandemic: How useful a lesson?","authors":"Emerta Aragie, Xinshen Diao, David J. Spielman, James Thurlow","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.004","url":null,"abstract":"In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) immediately introduced strict public health measures to contain the spread of infection. The economic consequences of these measures were negative and often large in magnitude, necessitating the rapid introduction of economic relief and recovery measures to reinvigorate economic growth and safeguard affected households. Rwanda stands out among other LMICs both for its effective public health policy response and its adaptive economic policy response to COVID-19. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Rwanda, this paper assesses the economywide and welfare impacts of these policy measures and contextualizes results within the overall policy response to COVID-19. Modeling results generated at an early stage of Rwanda’s pandemic experience indicated that relief and recovery measures introduced in 2020 could mitigate COVID-19′s recessionary effects by about 0.8 % points of total GDP, help to recover about 115,000 jobs and, through cash transfers, significantly reduce income losses among poorer households, with total benefits from the measures exceeded their cost by a ratio of 2.2. These results demonstrate the widely replicable value of economywide modeling when used in a timely manner and when positioned within a policymaking process.","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fiscal stance role for ECB monetary policy 财政立场对欧洲央行货币政策的作用

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.008

Linas Jurkšas, Francisco Gomes Pereira

引用次数: 0

Energy price increases and mitigation policies: Redistributive effects on Italian households 能源价格上涨与缓解政策：对意大利家庭的再分配效应

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.006

Andrea Bonfatti, Elena Giarda

引用次数: 0

Improving waste collectors' environmental responsibilities in Indonesia: A policy framework 改善印度尼西亚废物收集者的环境责任：政策框架

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.005

Made Adi Widyatmika, Nomesh B. Bolia

引用次数: 0

US international trade policy: Scenarios of protectionism and trade wars 美国国际贸易政策：保护主义和贸易战的情景

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010

{"title":"US international trade policy: Scenarios of protectionism and trade wars","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>US international trade<span><span> policy under both the Trump and Biden administrations has been increasingly protectionist. This paper considers two policy scenarios under active discussion: (1) an across-the-board increase in all US tariffs by 10 percentage points, and (2) a severe escalation of the US trade war with China. The scenarios are analyzed using a multi-country computable general equilibrium<span> (CGE) simulation model of the global economy. Trade wars or policy regimes of widespread protection will increase tariffs in many sectors simultaneously and include both final goods and intermediate inputs. The impacts are complex, with a web of direct and indirect forces coming into play across domestic and international markets. The global </span></span>CGE model captures these mechanisms, including both short and long-run effects, with and without retaliation by partner countries. In a world economy where the US accounts for only 10 % of global trade and potentially rival </span></span>trade bloc have emerged in Europe and E&SE Asia, the US is no longer hegemonic in global markets. We find that across-the-board tariffs do not protect manufacturing jobs because the cost of imported intermediate goods increases, raising costs in manufacturing production. The US trade war with China leads to a dramatic fall in bilateral trade. Other countries expand their trade to China and the US with the exception of closely linked partners (e.g. Canada and Mexico and all countries in E&SE Asia). We find that the world economy can adjust to US trade wars, diverting trade around the US.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141698867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0