Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献_第2页

Alcohol consumption response to pandemic induced income shocks in India 酒精消费对流行病引起的印度收入冲击的反应

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.001

Nidhi Kaicker

{"title":"Alcohol consumption response to pandemic induced income shocks in India","authors":"Nidhi Kaicker","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The study assesses the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on household consumption of alcohol in India<span><span>, considering both income shocks and supply-side factors. based on a nationally representative household survey conducted by CMIE. Using a 2SLS panel regression model and employing an approach akin to difference-in-differences technique, our study finds that the pandemic induced lockdowns<span> resulted in a sharp increase in the share of alcohol in total expenditure across rural and urban India, and for all income levels. Alcohol consumption varies by education level, by caste, religion, and severity of income shocks. The increased alcohol consumption during the pandemic, and more so among the households that faced a severe income shock, despite the supply restrictions, suggest the stronger impact of stress-response-dampening hypothesis and self-medication hypothesis compared to the income effect. Despite state-imposed supply restrictions, including temporary alcohol shop closures and subsequent reopening with higher </span></span>taxes, the study raises concerns about a disproportionate rise in alcohol consumption among the most economically impacted. This underscores the need for balanced policy responses, considering both economic stressors and public health imperatives, and emphasizes targeted interventions to mitigate the consequences of increased alcohol consumption during crises.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 5","pages":"Pages 1021-1036"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Is Pakistan in a debt trap? Do domestic and foreign debts crowd-out private investment? 巴基斯坦陷入债务陷阱了吗？国内和国外债务会排挤私人投资吗？

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.005

Muhammad Arshad Khan , Abdul Rahman , Bashir Ahmed Tareen

{"title":"Is Pakistan in a debt trap? Do domestic and foreign debts crowd-out private investment?","authors":"Muhammad Arshad Khan , Abdul Rahman , Bashir Ahmed Tareen","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Historically, Pakistan remained heavily dependent on domestic and external sources of financing which have strangled economic activities. Excessive public borrowing from domestic sources puts upward pressure on interest rates which crowded out domestic investment. Earlier studies found a linear relationship between debt and private investment. However, these studies overlooked the non-linear behavior of debt. The present study fills the research gap by examining the asymmetric impact of domestic and external debt on private investment. Further, this study attempts to explore whether the domestic and foreign debt crowed-in or crowed-out private investment in Pakistan over the period from 1972 to 2022. To this end, the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model has been utilized to capture the positive and negative shocks of domestic and foreign debt on private investment. The empirical outcome confirms the existence of both the long-run and short-run asymmetry between private investment, domestic debt, and external debt in Pakistan. Particularly, the positive shock to domestic debt deters private investment, while the negative shock promotes private investment in the short run. On the other hand, a positive shock to foreign debt enhances private investment in the short-run and the opposite holds for the negative shocks in the long-run. Another important finding is the crowding-out effect of public investment on private investment, which holds true in the short run. Thus, there is a need to curtail the size of domestic debt since its accumulation adversely affects private investment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 5","pages":"Pages 1076-1096"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A tale of debt in three acts 三幕的债务故事

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.009

Barry Eichengreen

引用次数: 0

The impact of US deportation policies on the US, Canadian, and Mexican economies 美国驱逐政策对美国、加拿大和墨西哥经济的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.010

Karen Thierfelder , Sherman Robinson , Raul Hinojosa-Ojeda

{"title":"The impact of US deportation policies on the US, Canadian, and Mexican economies","authors":"Karen Thierfelder , Sherman Robinson , Raul Hinojosa-Ojeda","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>North America (Canada, US, Mexico) is a highly inter-connected regional economy (ICRE) with extensive cross-country value chains in production and strong trade, financial, and labor market<span><span><span> links. The impact of new US deportation policy would affect the US economy in the short to medium term by reducing the labor force by nearly five percent as foreign-born labor leaves the country or drops out of the labor market. Analysis with a global computable general equilibrium<span> (CGE) simulation model indicates that the shock would cause a supply-side recession in the US and reduce real GDP by four percent. The wage in the labor markets with high participation of the remaining undocumented labor would increase, which would provide an incentive for increased future migration. There would also be a decline in the wage of native-born workers; studies indicate that they are complements not substitutes for non-native labor in their sectors of employment. The US macro shock would also induce macro shocks to both Mexico and Canada, yielding reductions in their GDP. In addition, there would be a dramatic decline in </span></span>remittance<span><span> flows from foreign-born workers to their countries of origin. For Mexico, the reduction in remittances would lead to a financial shock due to lost foreign exchange, resulting in a major depreciation of the real exchange rate and changes in </span>macro aggregates: lower GDP, lower imports, increased exports, and much lower aggregate final demand. The financial shock in Mexico would feed back to Canada and the US, affecting the sectoral </span></span>composition of trade<span> and production in both countries. In sum, the impact of US policies to remove foreign-born labor would reverberate across all three countries, damaging their economies and weakening economic integration in North America.</span></span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 4","pages":"Pages 746-767"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Trade effects of industrial policies: Are preferential agreements a shield? 产业政策的贸易效应：优惠协定是一种保护吗？

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.015

Alessandro Barattieri , Aaditya Mattoo , Daria Taglioni

引用次数: 0

The impact of the Federal Government debt on macroeconomic stability in the United States 联邦政府债务对美国宏观经济稳定的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.012

Lucjan T. Orlowski

{"title":"The impact of the Federal Government debt on macroeconomic stability in the United States","authors":"Lucjan T. Orlowski","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study determines the public debt-to-GDP levels for the United States to identify debt thresholds that support macroeconomic<span> stability, with a focus on price stability and low unemployment. Unlike previous studies that analyze how debt impacts economic growth, this research looks at how inflation<span><span> and unemployment react to the rising debt ratio at different levels of debt. The analysis starts by estimating the relationship between changes in public debt and changes in real GDP, noting a significant shift in 2008Q1 coinciding with the onset of the global financial crisis. Prior to the crisis, debt increases had no impact on GDP, but afterwards, an inverse relationship emerged. The analysis then proceeds with the sequence of two tests. Firstly, by conducting SETAR(2,p) testing on quarterly data from 1996 to 2024, two debt ratio thresholds are identified at 55.75 % and 97.12 %. This categorizes the debt ratio in three zones: a low debt zone below the lower threshold, a high zone above the upper threshold, and an intermediate zone in between. The tests examine the debt ratio in relation to changes in the core PCE annualized inflation, the rate of unemployment and the federal funds effective rate as a non-switching regressor. Subsequently, </span>cointegration<span> and VECM(2,5) tests are conducted to examine interactions and determine impulse responses between the debt ratio, inflation and unemployment in each debt zone. Findings indicate that increases in the debt ratio do not impact inflation or unemployment in the low debt zone. In the intermediate zone, rising debt leads to an increase in unemployment. Conversely, in the high debt zone, both inflation and unemployment increase significantly with rising debt. These non-linear and reverse causal relationships suggest that the current high public debt in the US is detrimental to macroeconomic stability, highlighting the need for urgent policies to reduce the debt burden.</span></span></span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 4","pages":"Pages 771-784"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

State voting preferences 2024 各州投票偏好2024

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.011

Dominick Salvatore, Fred Campano

引用次数: 0

International trade and economic growth in the era of geoeconomic fragmentation 地缘经济碎片化时代的国际贸易与经济增长

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.017

Dominick Salvatore , Janhavi Shankar Tripathi

{"title":"International trade and economic growth in the era of geoeconomic fragmentation","authors":"Dominick Salvatore , Janhavi Shankar Tripathi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span><span>This paper studies the relationship between international trade and economic growth during the era of geoeconomic fragmentation (2017–2023), using a </span>simultaneous equations model estimated through the full information maximum likelihood method. The study covers 132 countries (30 advanced and 102 developing) and also analyzes trade-growth dynamics separately for large and small economies. The findings confirm that trade remains a crucial factor for economic growth, but it acts more as a facilitator than a direct driver. In advanced countries, exports positively contribute to capital formation and growth, and industrialization contributes significantly to exports, while </span>capital inflows have a negative effect on fixed capital formation. For developing countries, industrialization significantly boosts exports and in turn economic growth. The study highlights that the rise in protectionism and trade disruptions during the geoeconomic fragmentation period may weaken the positive impact of trade on growth. The results are validated through dynamic simulations, underscoring the need for strategic industrialization and trade partnerships to sustain growth in a fragmented global economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 4","pages":"Pages 862-879"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

What happens in the global economy if the United States reduces its share of imports in GDP 如果美国减少其进口占GDP的比重，全球经济将会发生什么

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.018

Fred Campano , Dominick Salvatore , Alberto Costantiello

引用次数: 0

Foresee the unseen: Evaluating the impact of artificial intelligence on international trade 预见未知：评估人工智能对国际贸易的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.016

Adam Jakubik , Lorenzo Rotunno , Alisha Saini

引用次数: 0