Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

{"title":"Debt supercycle versus secular stagnation","authors":"Kenneth Rogoff","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.008","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 4","pages":"Pages 723-737"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"US trade conflict: Potential economic implications for the US and the global economy","authors":"Robert B. Koopman ,&nbsp;Marinos Tsigas","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>This paper evaluates the economic consequences of increasing US trade unilateralism through a CGE modeling approach focusing on three counterfactual scenarios: universal tariff retaliation, partial US-China de-escalation, and trade barriers combined with immigration restrictions. Using a GTAP framework with enhanced </span>labor market<span> detail, we find that full retaliation reduces US real GDP by 1.32 % and income by 2.77 %, with particularly severe impacts on export-oriented sectors. While selected bilateral accommodation provides modest relief, the combination of trade restrictions and labor deportation policies amplifies losses, reducing GDP by 3.83 % and income by 12.08 %. The results highlight the substantial costs of retreating from cooperative trade frameworks and the interconnections between trade and immigration policies. These findings suggest that preserving rules-based cooperation, enhancing multilateral institutions, and developing integrated labor-trade adjustment mechanisms are vital for maintaining economic resilience in an evolving global order. Keywords: trade policy<span><span>, tariffs, CGE modeling, labor markets, </span>economic integration</span></span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 4","pages":"Pages 785-804"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What drives trade policy reform?","authors":"Julia Estefania-Flores ,&nbsp;Davide Furceri ,&nbsp;Jonathan D. Ostry ,&nbsp;Federico Steinberg","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the macroeconomic and political determinants of non-tariff barriers to international trade based on a new index of such restrictions with broad country and time coverage. We employ a structured empirical approach that integrates multiple methodologies to identify which factors are the most robust correlates of trade reform (defined as meaningful changes in non-tariff barriers). We find that structural factors, both macroeconomic (especially inflation and export concentration) and political (especially democracy, corruption, political polarization and populism) emerge as robust correlates of changes in trade policy. Among these, political and institutional variables explain the largest share of nontariff barrier policy variation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 4","pages":"Pages 805-829"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Industrial policy and the new protectionism","authors":"Joseph E. Stiglitz","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.007","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 4","pages":"Pages 708-722"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increased childcare to promote mothers’ employment in selected EU countries","authors":"Edlira Narazani ,&nbsp;Ana Agúndez García ,&nbsp;Michael Christl ,&nbsp;Francesco Figari","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides evidence of the maternal labour supply effects of increased childcare availability in a set of EU Member States based on the behavioural microsimulation model EUROLAB, that uses a labour market equilibrium model to encompass the demand side. Our findings indicate that achieving higher childcare participation rates would result in an overall increase in the labour supply of mothers with children below 3, with variations across countries. Furthermore, the labour demand side moderates slightly the final employment effect, but employment is still expected to rise substantially vis a vis the baseline situation. In countries like Hungary and Poland, where formal childcare and female labour participation are low, the expected impact on employment is likely to be higher. Conversely, in countries like Portugal the changes in employment are more modest. These findings indicate that universal, one-size-fits-all targets may not be efficient in the EU, given significant variations across countries in terms of labour market participation and childcare systems. Thus, tailored childcare policies that account for country-specific contexts within the EU are recommended.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 3","pages":"Pages 492-511"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144255239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Asymmetric impact of migrants’ remittances on real effective exchange rate in Morocco","authors":"Oussama Zennati ,&nbsp;Zineb Bennis Nechba ,&nbsp;Zakaria Chtouki","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Earlier studies analysing the impact of remittances affect the exchange rate were based on a symmetric approach, assuming that this impact is symmetrically. This paper examines the asymmetric impact of remittances on real effective exchange rate (REER) in Morocco. Our results show that, in both the long and short term, remittances have a negative impact on REER, which reject \"dutch disease\" hypothesis in the Moroccan context. The results further demonstrate a long-term asymmetric effect of remittances on REER. In light of these findings, it is recommended that Moroccan authorities should implement policies to pool and reallocate Moroccan migrants' savings towards productive investment, thereby reinforcing financial inclusion and providing tailored financial services to families left behind in receipt of these remittances.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 3","pages":"Pages 588-606"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144255410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An artificial neural network experiment on the prediction of the unemployment rate","authors":"Cosimo Magazzino ,&nbsp;Marco Mele ,&nbsp;Mihai Mutascu","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes an advanced Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) methodology with a Genetic test in order to estimate unemployment forecasting in 23 high-tech and most-developed countries over the period 1998–2016. The main findings reveal that the methodology adopted ensures an excellent accuracy of unemployment forecasting for the selected countries, allowing the analysis of the contributions of each input to unemployment estimation as well. A significant role is exerted by GDP, labor productivity, population growth, and Artificial Intelligence innovation, while inflation assumes only a secondary role. A minor contribution is also observed in Foreign Direct Investments and government size. Therefore, economic growth based on innovation in Artificial Intelligence with explicit effects on productivity, under adequate population growth, seems to drive the unemployment rate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 3","pages":"Pages 471-491"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144255238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Do deeds match words? India’s monetary policy needs to “walk the talk” for inflation anchoring","authors":"Smita Roy Trivedi,&nbsp;Saibal Ghosh","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>Transparent and consistent communication is integral for effective central bank policymaking. The challenge is more acute in emerging markets where the spectrum of audience is wide and significantly heterogenous, each with their own information needs. To cater to this diverse spectrum, several central banks publish the records on Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision, detailing the minutes and voting by members. Whether such voting pattern by the members is consistent with their sentiments as embedded in the minutes of meetings remains an open question. To address this issue, we utilise data from Indian MPC, compute a sentiment index across member-meetings, and correlate it with their </span>voting behaviour<span>, after controlling for other confounding factors. Unlike prior studies, our analysis onboards a neutral sentiment, in addition to hawkishness and dovishness. The findings reveal that sentiments expressed by members in the MPC meetings is not always reflected in their voting behaviour, creating a chasm between deeds (voting) and words (sentiments). Robustness tests reinforce these findings, although there exist differential effects across internal versus external members. From a policy standpoint, the analysis suggests that MPCs need to ‘walk the talk' for effective inflation anchoring.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 3","pages":"Pages 662-680"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141553085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Do greenfield foreign direct investments contribute to poverty reduction and economic growth in Africa?","authors":"Friday Osemenshan Anetor","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.03.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.03.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most literature on foreign direct investment (FDI) establishes that FDI is beneficial to the welfare and growth of host countries. While this might largely be true, the question is, does all types of FDI produce similar benefits? As a result, this study examines the impact of greenfield FDI on poverty reduction and sustainable economic growth in 46 African countries between the periods 2003–2020 using the system generalized method of moments (System GMM), the fixed and random effect methods. The study found that greenfield FDI promotes poverty reduction in low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries in Africa; however, its impact on sustainable economic growth is mostly insignificant. Based on these findings, this study provides some policy implication. These include the commitment of the government to the development of basic and productive infrastructures to attract greenfield investment in Africa. Policymakers should also design investment promotion policies, tools and processes such as corporate tax incentives, reduction of information asymmetries, and lower investment and administrative costs. This will make it easier for multinational firms to establish their businesses and expand their operations thereby improving the welfare of the citizenry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 3","pages":"Pages 633-644"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144255412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Occupation and demand for health services in Italy: Ways and means to reduce the opportunity costs imposed on patients","authors":"Giuliana De Luca ,&nbsp;Michela Ponzo","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>This paper explores whether and to which extent employment condition and working hours influence individuals’ decision process in consuming primary care. The hypothesis is that the higher the workers’ opportunity cost in terms of earning forgone, the less the demand for General Practitioner (GP) visits. Using survey data provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), we estimate a negative binomial regression model of GP visits as a function of employment related variables, controlling for a rich set of individual demographic characteristics, socio-economic variables, health status<span>, supply and geographical factors. We show that self-employed workers, managers and cadres use significantly less primary care services notwithstanding the access is free. We conclude that they have higher opportunity costs than white and blue collars since they suffer more from the loss of earnings related to the </span></span>absence<span><span> from work. Self-employed individuals often face barriers to accessing healthcare services, such as lack of employer-sponsored </span>health insurance and concerns about lost income during time off for medical appointments. As a result, they may delay seeking healthcare until their condition becomes more severe, leading to poorer health outcomes. Managers and cadres, on the other hand, may have greater access to healthcare services due to higher income levels and better job benefits. However, they may still face challenges such as long working hours and job-related stress, which can impact their ability to prioritize their health and seek timely medical care.</span></div><div>From a policy perspective, our results suggest potential policy interventions aimed at addressing barriers to healthcare access for self-employed workers and promoting equitable healthcare utilization across different employment groups. Policy recommendations may include measures to enhance <em>financial support</em><span> (tax deductions for medical expenses, subsidies for health insurance premiums, or grants to cover the costs of healthcare-related absences from work), increase </span><em>healthcare accessibility</em> (enhancing the availability of mobile clinics, and extending operating hours for primary care facilities to accommodate the needs of working individuals) and raise awareness about <em>preventive care</em><span> among self-employed workers (workplace wellness programs, and incentives for regular health check-ups, screenings and healthy lifestyle choices, can encourage managers and self-employed workers to prioritize preventive measures). These policy implications are essential for ensuring equitable and universal access to healthcare services for all workers, regardless of their employment status.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 3","pages":"Pages 645-661"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141414816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}