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Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

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US international trade policy: Scenarios of protectionism and trade wars 美国国际贸易政策：保护主义和贸易战的情景
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010
Sherman Robinson , Karen Thierfelder
{"title":"US international trade policy: Scenarios of protectionism and trade wars","authors":"Sherman Robinson ,&nbsp;Karen Thierfelder","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>US international trade<span><span> policy under both the Trump and Biden administrations has been increasingly protectionist. This paper considers two policy scenarios under active discussion: (1) an across-the-board increase in all US tariffs by 10 percentage points, and (2) a severe escalation of the US trade war with China. The scenarios are analyzed using a multi-country computable general equilibrium<span> (CGE) simulation model of the global economy. Trade wars or policy regimes of widespread protection will increase tariffs in many sectors simultaneously and include both final goods and intermediate inputs. The impacts are complex, with a web of direct and indirect forces coming into play across domestic and international markets. The global </span></span>CGE model captures these mechanisms, including both short and long-run effects, with and without retaliation by partner countries. In a world economy where the US accounts for only 10 % of global trade and potentially rival </span></span>trade bloc have emerged in Europe and E&amp;SE Asia, the US is no longer hegemonic in global markets. We find that across-the-board tariffs do not protect manufacturing jobs because the cost of imported intermediate goods increases, raising costs in manufacturing production. The US trade war with China leads to a dramatic fall in bilateral trade. Other countries expand their trade to China and the US with the exception of closely linked partners (e.g. Canada and Mexico and all countries in E&amp;SE Asia). We find that the world economy can adjust to US trade wars, diverting trade around the US.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141698867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal revenue mobilization and digitally traded products: Taxing at the border or behind it? 财政收入动员与数字贸易产品：在边境征税还是在边境后征税？
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.04.001
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引用次数: 0
Ending Poverty and Accelerating Growth in South Africa, through the expansion of its social grant system 南非通过扩大社会补助金制度消除贫困和加快增长
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.003
Ismael Fofana, R. Mabugu, Alhassane Camara
{"title":"Ending Poverty and Accelerating Growth in South Africa, through the expansion of its social grant system","authors":"Ismael Fofana, R. Mabugu, Alhassane Camara","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.003","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141839369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Relationship between trade and growth for developing countries at different levels of income 不同收入水平发展中国家的贸易与增长之间的关系
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.009
Dominick Salvatore , Janhavi Shankar Tripathi
{"title":"Relationship between trade and growth for developing countries at different levels of income","authors":"Dominick Salvatore ,&nbsp;Janhavi Shankar Tripathi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.009","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141962539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How to get monetary policy back on track 如何让货币政策重回正轨
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.008
{"title":"How to get monetary policy back on track","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.008","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141552361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Two-for-One Deal: Targeting Nominal GDP to Create a Supply-Shock Robust Inflation Target 一举两得：以名义国内生产总值为目标，建立受供应冲击影响的稳健通胀目标
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.014
David Beckworth, Patrick J. Horan
{"title":"A Two-for-One Deal: Targeting Nominal GDP to Create a Supply-Shock Robust Inflation Target","authors":"David Beckworth, Patrick J. Horan","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.014","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141852605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The economic determinants of world disorder events: An empirical analysis 世界混乱事件的经济决定因素：实证分析
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.007
{"title":"The economic determinants of world disorder events: An empirical analysis","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.007","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141552362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Revisiting the effects of exchange and capital restrictions on trade 重新审视外汇和资本限制对贸易的影响
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.013
{"title":"Revisiting the effects of exchange and capital restrictions on trade","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This paper examines the effects of exchange and capital restrictions on trade and compares them with those associated with trade restrictions. Our main result is that capital account restrictions have large and statistically significant effects on trade flows. Such effects are smaller than those from trade restrictions, however. The effects of exchange and capital restrictions are larger for trade in goods, especially for agriculture and manufacturing, and smaller for </span>trade in services.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141552363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Globalization and growth in a bipolar world 两极世界中的全球化与增长
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.006
Barry Eichengreen
{"title":"Globalization and growth in a bipolar world","authors":"Barry Eichengreen","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.006","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141609571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade and growth and the likely output of GDP in 2025 贸易与增长以及 2025 年国内生产总值的可能产出
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.008
Fred Campano, Dominick Salvatore
{"title":"Trade and growth and the likely output of GDP in 2025","authors":"Fred Campano,&nbsp;Dominick Salvatore","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.008","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141842417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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