Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献_第3页

US international trade policy: Scenarios of protectionism and trade wars 美国国际贸易政策：保护主义和贸易战的情景

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010

Sherman Robinson , Karen Thierfelder

{"title":"US international trade policy: Scenarios of protectionism and trade wars","authors":"Sherman Robinson , Karen Thierfelder","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div>US international trade policy under both the Trump and Biden administrations has been increasingly protectionist. This paper considers two policy scenarios under active discussion: (1) an across-the-board increase in all US tariffs by 10 percentage points, and (2) a severe escalation of the US trade war with China. The scenarios are analyzed using a multi-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation model of the global economy. Trade wars or policy regimes of widespread protection will increase tariffs in many sectors simultaneously and include both final goods and intermediate inputs. The impacts are complex, with a web of direct and indirect forces coming into play across domestic and international markets. The global CGE model captures these mechanisms, including both short and long-run effects, with and without retaliation by partner countries. In a world economy where the US accounts for only 10 % of global trade and potentially rival trade bloc have emerged in Europe and E&SE Asia, the US is no longer hegemonic in global markets. We find that across-the-board tariffs do not protect manufacturing jobs because the cost of imported intermediate goods increases, raising costs in manufacturing production. The US trade war with China leads to a dramatic fall in bilateral trade. Other countries expand their trade to China and the US with the exception of closely linked partners (e.g. Canada and Mexico and all countries in E&SE Asia). We find that the world economy can adjust to US trade wars, diverting trade around the US.</div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 4","pages":"Pages 723-739"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141698867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fiscal revenue mobilization and digitally traded products: Taxing at the border or behind it? 财政收入动员与数字贸易产品：在边境征税还是在边境后征税？

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.04.001

引用次数: 0

Relationship between trade and growth for developing countries at different levels of income 不同收入水平发展中国家的贸易与增长之间的关系

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.009

Dominick Salvatore , Janhavi Shankar Tripathi

引用次数: 0

How to get monetary policy back on track 如何让货币政策重回正轨

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.008

引用次数: 0

The economic determinants of world disorder events: An empirical analysis 世界混乱事件的经济决定因素：实证分析

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.007

引用次数: 0

Revisiting the effects of exchange and capital restrictions on trade 重新审视外汇和资本限制对贸易的影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.013

引用次数: 0

Globalization and growth in a bipolar world 两极世界中的全球化与增长

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.006

Barry Eichengreen

引用次数: 0

Trade and growth and the likely output of GDP in 2025 贸易与增长以及 2025 年国内生产总值的可能产出

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.008

Fred Campano, Dominick Salvatore

引用次数: 0

Do deeds match words? India’ monetary policy needs to “walk the talk” for inflation anchoring 言行一致吗？印度货币政策需要 "言行一致 "才能锚定通胀

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.002

Smitaroy Trivedi, Saibal Ghosh

{"title":"Do deeds match words? India’ monetary policy needs to “walk the talk” for inflation anchoring","authors":"Smitaroy Trivedi, Saibal Ghosh","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.002","url":null,"abstract":"Transparent and consistent communication is integral for effective central bank policymaking. The challenge is more acute in emerging markets where the spectrum of audience is wide and significantly heterogenous, each with their own information needs. To cater to this diverse spectrum, several central banks publish the records on Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision, detailing the minutes and voting by members. Whether such voting pattern by the members is consistent with their sentiments as embedded in the minutes of meetings remains an open question. To address this issue, we utilise data from Indian MPC, compute a sentiment index across member-meetings, and correlate it with their voting behaviour, after controlling for other confounding factors. Unlike prior studies, our analysis onboards a neutral sentiment, in addition to hawkishness and dovishness. The findings reveal that sentiments expressed by members in the MPC meetings is not always reflected in their voting behaviour, creating a chasm between deeds (voting) and words (sentiments). Robustness tests reinforce these findings, although there exist differential effects across internal versus external members. From a policy standpoint, the analysis suggests that MPCs need to ‘walk the talk' for effective inflation anchoring.","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141553085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Racial diversity, child stunting and underweight: Policies design and promotion in South Africa 种族多样性、儿童发育迟缓和体重不足：南非的政策设计与推广

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.009

Isaac Koomson, Clifford Afoakwah, Martinson Ankrah Twumasi

引用次数: 0