Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

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Fiscal policy in times of fiscal stress (or what to do when r > g) 财政紧张时期的财政政策(或当 r > g 时该怎么办)
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.001
Roy Havemann , Hylton Hollander
{"title":"Fiscal policy in times of fiscal stress (or what to do when r > g)","authors":"Roy Havemann ,&nbsp;Hylton Hollander","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>South Africa runs a primary fiscal deficit and the long-term interest rate on government borrowing, <em>r</em>, is greater than the long-term economic growth rate, <em>g</em>. Without intervention, debt will continue to rise until there is a disorderly fiscal stop. Reforms to raise growth have not materialised, leaving fiscal consolidation as the second-best solution. Using a medium-sized, open-economy, fiscal DSGE model of South Africa, we show that the least cost policy is to impose a time-consistent fiscal policy rule with debt-to-GDP as the fiscal anchor and a pre-announced path for government consumption spending as the intermediate operational objective. This result obtains with and without explicit policy coordination between the fiscal and monetary authorities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 5","pages":"Pages 1020-1054"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893824000814/pdfft?md5=58f8d30fae06346baed8c18d366b360c&pid=1-s2.0-S0161893824000814-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141691776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The emotions for COVID-19 vaccine: Insights from Twitter analytics about hesitancy and willingness for vaccination 对 COVID-19 疫苗的情感:从推特分析中了解疫苗接种的犹豫和意愿
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.005
{"title":"The emotions for COVID-19 vaccine: Insights from Twitter analytics about hesitancy and willingness for vaccination","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The declaration by the World Health Organization and government-initiated actions by different countries for the COVID-19 vaccine have led to the rapid evolution of sentiments on various social media platforms. Real-time data related to vaccination<span> has grown the need to anticipate the changes in vaccine uptake. Using Twitter dataset, the study models different emotions and their associated word. The emotions are majorly classified into hesitancy and willingness for vaccination. The study categorizes the tweets into pre-launch, post-launch, and booster doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. Based on comparative analysis, most sentiments were related to hesitancy for vaccination during pre-launch. In post-launch, the majority of sentiments were oriented towards willingness for vaccination. However, during the booster dose, the sentiments were oriented toward happy, adequate, and free emotions. Over the time period, the willingness of the COVID-19 vaccine has improved. The practitioners and policymakers can obtain real-time sentiments based on this approach and strategize the long-term vaccination policy for COVID-19 and other vaccination programs.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 5","pages":"Pages 964-984"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141056276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The relevance of development policies to confront crisis situations: World Bank’s early response to Covid-19 应对危机局势的发展政策的相关性:世界银行对 Covid-19 的早期响应
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.007
{"title":"The relevance of development policies to confront crisis situations: World Bank’s early response to Covid-19","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Evaluating the relevance of development policies<span> is a complex task as many different dimensions must be considered. By focusing on one particular, quantifiable aspect of relevance, this study proposes a new method for generating data-driven evidence that can be used both for assessing the relevance of international development policies<span> ex post, and for guiding decisions about future strategic priorities. For this purpose, relevance is defined as the match between (i) the types and scopes of support provided and (ii) the types and scopes of support most needed in a given context, according to measurable indicators (proxies). The latter is operationalized using a multidimensional vulnerability score constructed based on a set of empirical indicators commonly argued to proxy vulnerability to shocks. Comparing the vulnerability score with the sector-specific allocation of support yields two empirical measures of relevance, one at the country level and one at the sector level within each country. The proposed method is then applied to evaluate the relevance of the World Bank Group’s early response to Covid-19 across 133 countries. At the same time, many of the modeling insights are more broadly applicable and may also be useful in informing evaluations of development policies beyond the specific application considered here.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 5","pages":"Pages 847-866"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141137234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Transitionning and the trinity nexus: Scenarios from a small country 非洲农村的创业精神和能源效率:一个小国的政策教训
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.004
{"title":"Transitionning and the trinity nexus: Scenarios from a small country","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The energy issue in both developed and developing countries remains vital. However, in developing countries, energy pressure is much greater. Despite this, few studies have examined credit, entrepreneurship, and energy transition in developing countries. We addressed this research gap by using the data collected from six regions in Burkina Faso. Employing the multivariate probit and the endogenous switching probit model<span>, three scenarios are explored. We find that entrepreneurship promotes energy transition while access to credit is not useful to the energy transition. However, the joint effect of access to credit and entrepreneurship is 4 times higher for solar PV use and 3 times for biogas adoption. Access to credit promotes the energy transition when credit is devolved to the entrepreneur supporting the trinity rather than the trilemma.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 5","pages":"Pages 908-927"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141045128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Energy price increases and mitigation policies: Redistributive effects on Italian households 能源价格上涨与缓解政策:对意大利家庭的再分配效应
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.006
Andrea Bonfatti, Elena Giarda
{"title":"Energy price increases and mitigation policies: Redistributive effects on Italian households","authors":"Andrea Bonfatti, Elena Giarda","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.006","url":null,"abstract":"Between July 2021 and March 2023, the Italian government acted to support households’ and individuals’ incomes to help them cope with the exceptional energy and food prices surge, by means of both tariff and income-based fiscal policy measures. In this paper, we perform a microsimulation exercise to quantify the effects of the price increases and of the policy interventions on household expenditure and income. Our results indicate that the regressive impact of the price rises was mitigated by the fiscal measures, which also succeeded in reducing inequality, at risk of poverty and energy poverty. We also observe the relevant role of income-based measures in the South of the country.","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141609572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improving waste collectors' environmental responsibilities in Indonesia: A policy framework 改善印度尼西亚废物收集者的环境责任:政策框架
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.005
Made Adi Widyatmika, Nomesh B. Bolia
{"title":"Improving waste collectors' environmental responsibilities in Indonesia: A policy framework","authors":"Made Adi Widyatmika, Nomesh B. Bolia","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.005","url":null,"abstract":"The responsibility of the garbage collector officer towards the environment largely determines the reliability of the waste management system. The study develops a policy framework for a waste management system using an SEM approach to the environmental responsibility of a garbage collector officer. From a case study in Indonesia, a survey of 246 formal waste collectors in Denpasar’s waste management system assessed their opinion of the internal service quality. The analysis determines the impact of internal service quality elements on job satisfaction and environmental responsibility. Model-fit statistics confirm the validity and reliability of the model and indicate that tangibility, reliability, assurance, and empathy positively affect job satisfaction. Meanwhile, management responsiveness does not have a statistically significant effect. The study suggests that waste management should acknowledge the indirect influence of internal service quality on the environmental responsibility of waste collectors through job satisfaction factors.","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141553082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Recent changes in the structure of U.S. imports from China implications for the future 美国从中国进口产品结构的最新变化 对未来的影响 *
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.004
Andrew R. Blair
{"title":"Recent changes in the structure of U.S. imports from China implications for the future","authors":"Andrew R. Blair","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.004","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 4","pages":"Pages 802-812"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141695003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
US international trade policy: Scenarios of protectionism and trade wars 美国国际贸易政策:保护主义和贸易战的情景
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010
Sherman Robinson , Karen Thierfelder
{"title":"US international trade policy: Scenarios of protectionism and trade wars","authors":"Sherman Robinson ,&nbsp;Karen Thierfelder","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>US international trade<span><span> policy under both the Trump and Biden administrations has been increasingly protectionist. This paper considers two policy scenarios under active discussion: (1) an across-the-board increase in all US tariffs by 10 percentage points, and (2) a severe escalation of the US trade war with China. The scenarios are analyzed using a multi-country computable general equilibrium<span> (CGE) simulation model of the global economy. Trade wars or policy regimes of widespread protection will increase tariffs in many sectors simultaneously and include both final goods and intermediate inputs. The impacts are complex, with a web of direct and indirect forces coming into play across domestic and international markets. The global </span></span>CGE model captures these mechanisms, including both short and long-run effects, with and without retaliation by partner countries. In a world economy where the US accounts for only 10 % of global trade and potentially rival </span></span>trade bloc have emerged in Europe and E&amp;SE Asia, the US is no longer hegemonic in global markets. We find that across-the-board tariffs do not protect manufacturing jobs because the cost of imported intermediate goods increases, raising costs in manufacturing production. The US trade war with China leads to a dramatic fall in bilateral trade. Other countries expand their trade to China and the US with the exception of closely linked partners (e.g. Canada and Mexico and all countries in E&amp;SE Asia). We find that the world economy can adjust to US trade wars, diverting trade around the US.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 4","pages":"Pages 723-739"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141698867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal revenue mobilization and digitally traded products: Taxing at the border or behind it? 财政收入动员与数字贸易产品:在边境征税还是在边境后征税?
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.04.001
{"title":"Fiscal revenue mobilization and digitally traded products: Taxing at the border or behind it?","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 4","pages":"Pages 779-801"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141552364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Relationship between trade and growth for developing countries at different levels of income 不同收入水平发展中国家的贸易与增长之间的关系
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.009
Dominick Salvatore , Janhavi Shankar Tripathi
{"title":"Relationship between trade and growth for developing countries at different levels of income","authors":"Dominick Salvatore ,&nbsp;Janhavi Shankar Tripathi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.009","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 4","pages":"Pages 813-822"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141962539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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