Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献_第4页

How to get monetary policy back on track 如何让货币政策重回正轨

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.008

引用次数: 0

The economic determinants of world disorder events: An empirical analysis 世界混乱事件的经济决定因素：实证分析

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.007

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Revisiting the effects of exchange and capital restrictions on trade 重新审视外汇和资本限制对贸易的影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.013

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Globalization and growth in a bipolar world 两极世界中的全球化与增长

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.006

Barry Eichengreen

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Trade and growth and the likely output of GDP in 2025 贸易与增长以及 2025 年国内生产总值的可能产出

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.008

Fred Campano, Dominick Salvatore

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Do deeds match words? India’ monetary policy needs to “walk the talk” for inflation anchoring 言行一致吗？印度货币政策需要 "言行一致 "才能锚定通胀

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.002

Smitaroy Trivedi, Saibal Ghosh

{"title":"Do deeds match words? India’ monetary policy needs to “walk the talk” for inflation anchoring","authors":"Smitaroy Trivedi, Saibal Ghosh","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.002","url":null,"abstract":"Transparent and consistent communication is integral for effective central bank policymaking. The challenge is more acute in emerging markets where the spectrum of audience is wide and significantly heterogenous, each with their own information needs. To cater to this diverse spectrum, several central banks publish the records on Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision, detailing the minutes and voting by members. Whether such voting pattern by the members is consistent with their sentiments as embedded in the minutes of meetings remains an open question. To address this issue, we utilise data from Indian MPC, compute a sentiment index across member-meetings, and correlate it with their voting behaviour, after controlling for other confounding factors. Unlike prior studies, our analysis onboards a neutral sentiment, in addition to hawkishness and dovishness. The findings reveal that sentiments expressed by members in the MPC meetings is not always reflected in their voting behaviour, creating a chasm between deeds (voting) and words (sentiments). Robustness tests reinforce these findings, although there exist differential effects across internal versus external members. From a policy standpoint, the analysis suggests that MPCs need to ‘walk the talk' for effective inflation anchoring.","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141553085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Interest subvention for crop loans in India: Win-win or win-lose ? 印度农作物贷款利息补贴：双赢还是双输？

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.006

Disha Bhanot, Vivek Farias, Deeksha Sinha

引用次数: 0

Socioeconomic and demographic determinants of financial inclusion in South Asia: Integrated policy for targeted groups of population 南亚金融包容性的社会经济和人口决定因素：针对目标人群的综合政策

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.002

Sumit Kumar, Kalandi Charan Pradhan

{"title":"Socioeconomic and demographic determinants of financial inclusion in South Asia: Integrated policy for targeted groups of population","authors":"Sumit Kumar, Kalandi Charan Pradhan","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper aims to analyze the individual’s socioeconomic and demographic determinants of financial inclusion and its barriers among for South Asian countries in the lens of existing financial inclusion policy, using World Bank Global Findex database for the period 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021. We use the Probit regression model to explore the main objective of this study. In addition, we also analyze the trend, pattern, and barriers of financial inclusion for the period 2011- 2021 to identify differences among south Asian countries. Our results reveal that Sri Lanka is the best performer in the inclusivity of financial products as well as removing barriers to financial inclusion in all four periods. While Pakistan and Afghanistan are the least financially included countries, also they failed to remove barriers to financial inclusion. Moreover, our empirical results suggest that individuals who are male, older, wealthier, and more educated are more likely to access financial services, with income and education exerting a higher influence. Further, age shows a non-linear (inverted U-shaped) relationship with financial inclusion indicators. Additionally, we found that individuals having a formal account are the most important indicators of financial inclusion. And the reasons for financial exclusion (i.e., not having an account) are mainly voluntary among South Asian individuals. In fact, it is found that policies like Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana for India and National Financial Inclusion Strategy across all South Asian countries play a significant role in accelerating financial inclusion and helping in removing its barriers with different magnitudes. Therefore, our finding stresses the importance of heterogeneous integrated policy measures for the targeted groups of the population, particularly the most vulnerable group among South Asian countries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 655-682"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140201592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The dynamics of redistribution, inequality and growth across China’s regions 中国各地区再分配、不平等与增长的动态变化

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.011

Xiaoliang Yang , Lucy Barros , Kent Matthews , David Meenagh

引用次数: 0

Should the South African Reserve Bank lower the inflation target band? Insights from the GDP-inflation nexus 南非储备银行是否应该降低通胀目标区间？国内生产总值与通货膨胀关系的启示

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.004

Eliphas Ndou , Nombulelo Gumata

{"title":"Should the South African Reserve Bank lower the inflation target band? Insights from the GDP-inflation nexus","authors":"Eliphas Ndou , Nombulelo Gumata","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Should the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) lower the inflation target (IT) band? Does lowering the IT band impact the relationship between GDP growth and inflation? This paper explores these questions considering the SARB Governor, Lesetja Kganyago statements that there is a need to lower the IT band from 3–6% to a point target of 3%. We estimate the VAR model to determine whether the passthrough of positive GDP growth shocks to inflation is nonlinear in South Africa. The inflation effects are delineated into bands (i) above 6% (ii) between 4.5% and 6% (iii) between 3% and 4.5% (iv) between 0% and 3% and (v) when there are no IT bands. Evidence reveals that the passthrough is elevated when inflation exceeds 6% and is lower when inflation is within the (i) 3 to 4.5% and (ii) 0 to 3% IT bands. The passthrough from positive GDP growth shocks is more than halved when inflation is less than 3%. The policy implication is that lowering the IT band from 3 to 6% to 0 to 3% will reduce the passthrough of GDP growth shocks to inflation. It allows expansionary monetary to have more real effects as prices are more rigid in the low inflation environment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 638-654"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016189382400019X/pdfft?md5=452b517ca443e3ca407c6861abb45fa5&pid=1-s2.0-S016189382400019X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139920990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0