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Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

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Impact of government domestic borrowing on monetary policy rate pass-through in Tanzania 坦桑尼亚政府国内借款对货币政策利率传递的影响
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.003
Enock Mwakalila
{"title":"Impact of government domestic borrowing on monetary policy rate pass-through in Tanzania","authors":"Enock Mwakalila","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The central bank should be able to play a role in an economy through monetary policy. Controlling the interest rate is a key monetary policy instrument the central bank uses. Increasing government borrowing from domestic commercial banks in Tanzania may counteract this instrument and its intended impact. Thus, this study empirically analyzes how government debt to commercial banks affects the transmission of monetary policy rates to lending rates in Tanzania. Quarterly time series data is collected from 2010 to 2023. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model estimation with a bound cointegration test is used to establish the short and long-run relationship, and the results are subjected to diagnostic tests for robustness. The results show that increasing government borrowing from domestic commercial banks prevents the trickle-down effect of the monetary policy (repo) rate on lending rates. Therefore, the study recommends that the government reduce domestic borrowings to fund its budget deficit, especially spending on projects that the private sector can implement better.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 150-165"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Policy lessons from green gdp convergence over five decades: Enhancing sustainability and economic outcomes 五十年来绿色gdp趋同的政策教训：增强可持续性和经济成果
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.08.002
Saša Stjepanović , Daniel Tomić , Marinko Škare
{"title":"Policy lessons from green gdp convergence over five decades: Enhancing sustainability and economic outcomes","authors":"Saša Stjepanović ,&nbsp;Daniel Tomić ,&nbsp;Marinko Škare","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.08.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.08.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes the convergence of Green GDP among 160 countries from 1970 to 2019, emphasizing the pivotal role of environmental policies in shaping sustainable economic outcomes. By comparing traditional and Green GDP (includes environmental degradation), this paper identifies distinct economic clusters or “convergence clubs” and reveals how policy-driven changes influence these classifications. The findings highlight the significant impact of environmental policies on economic convergence and propose applicative policy recommendations to foster sustainable growth, making this study essential for policymakers engaged in economic and environmental planning. This study demonstrates the long-term convergence of the selected countries' economic growth, influenced by their disparate commitments to sustainable practices and regulatory frameworks that govern environmental protection. Thus, regardless of the variations across countries and their environmental policies, diverse economic strategies tend to produce similar outcomes in the long term.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 187-210"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does financial development improve the effect of public health expenditure on out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in the WAEMU? 金融发展是否改善了东亚经济联盟公共卫生支出对自付医疗费用的影响？
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.003
Jacques Boundioa , Souleymane Diallo
{"title":"Does financial development improve the effect of public health expenditure on out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in the WAEMU?","authors":"Jacques Boundioa ,&nbsp;Souleymane Diallo","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3, namely to ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all, it is important to have a sustainable health expenditure model. However, countries in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) are characterized by higher levels of out-of-pocket payments for healthcare. This situation limits access to medical care, makes many people vulnerable to poverty and deviates from the goal of universal health coverage (UHC). This article analyzes the effect of public health expenditure on out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in WAEMU over the period 2000–2020 by taking into account financial development. With the quantile regression technique for panel data, the results show that the increase in public health expenditure leads to a reduction in out-of-pocket payments for healthcare. Moreover, the decrease becomes more significant when public health expenditure interacts with financial development. Thus, improving protection against financial risk related to health expenditure borne by households in the WAEMU requires the establishment of a well-developed health financing system oriented towards an increase in public health expenditure. Policies aimed at further developing the financial sector could have a multiplier effect on the reduction of out-of-pocket payments for healthcare through public expenditure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 228-249"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Identifying the ‘deep roots’ of economic freedom with implications for policy and economic reform 确定经济自由的“深层根源”及其对政策和经济改革的影响
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.002
James W. Saunoris , James E. Payne , Russell S. Sobel
{"title":"Identifying the ‘deep roots’ of economic freedom with implications for policy and economic reform","authors":"James W. Saunoris ,&nbsp;James E. Payne ,&nbsp;Russell S. Sobel","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Because of the importance of economic freedom for a country’s prosperity and growth, subsequent studies now try to uncover which factors explain the cross-country differences in economic freedom. Based upon Lawson, Murphy, and Powell’s (2020) recent literature review we provide the first empirical examination of the relative importance of all 18 of the key “deep root” factors they identify across the published literature. We employ a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach that is ideally suited for model identification and provides a statistical means to rank the importance of these deep root factors. Our results suggest that (in order of importance) latitude, exitability as measured by a country’s shape and coastal access, genetic distance, religion, and French legal origins are the most important of the deep root determinants of economic freedom. Policy implications of our findings are also discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 211-227"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Addressing climatic uncertainty through fleet optimization for robust winter road maintenance policy design 解决气候的不确定性，通过车队优化稳健的冬季道路养护政策设计
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.001
Nadeem Akbar Najar , Arnab Jana , D. Parthasarathy
{"title":"Addressing climatic uncertainty through fleet optimization for robust winter road maintenance policy design","authors":"Nadeem Akbar Najar ,&nbsp;Arnab Jana ,&nbsp;D. Parthasarathy","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective winter road maintenance (WRM) is essential in regions with heavy snowfall, but climate change has increased the unpredictability and severity of winter weather, complicating WRM planning and policy. This study uses the Taguchi method to optimize WRM strategies, focusing on fleet configurations and maintenance practices. By integrating advanced technologies and data-driven decision-making, the research aims to provide policymakers with evidence-based recommendations to enhance WRM robustness and efficiency. The findings offer actionable insights for improving road safety, minimizing economic disruptions, and optimizing resource allocation under climatic uncertainty, ultimately supporting more effective and sustainable WRM operations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 134-149"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do debt relief and fiscal rules improve public debt sustainability? The experience of sub-Sahara African countries 债务减免和财政规则能否改善公共债务的可持续性？撒哈拉以南非洲国家的经验
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.007
Attahir B. Abubakar , W. David McCausland , Ioannis Theodossiou
{"title":"Do debt relief and fiscal rules improve public debt sustainability? The experience of sub-Sahara African countries","authors":"Attahir B. Abubakar ,&nbsp;W. David McCausland ,&nbsp;Ioannis Theodossiou","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The sub-Sahara African (SSA) region accounts for 33 of the 39 Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) with many of these countries facing challenges in public debt management. This paper examines issues that are key to improving the debt situation in the region. Specifically, the study investigates two key questions namely whether the adoption of fiscal rules and debt relief improve public debt sustainability. What factors reduce the public debt of SSA countries? Interestingly, the findings reveal that while debt relief improves debt sustainability, the imposition of fiscal rules threatens the debt sustainability of the region. Further, higher economic growth and increasing government balance are instrumental to reducing public debt. These findings have far-reaching policy implications for public debt management in developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 166-186"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141697197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ending poverty and accelerating growth in South Africa, through the expansion of its social grant system 南非通过扩大社会补助金制度消除贫困和加快增长
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.003
Ismael Fofana , Ramos E. Mabugu , Alhassane Camara , Babatunde Abidoye
{"title":"Ending poverty and accelerating growth in South Africa, through the expansion of its social grant system","authors":"Ismael Fofana ,&nbsp;Ramos E. Mabugu ,&nbsp;Alhassane Camara ,&nbsp;Babatunde Abidoye","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>South Africa has one of the most extensive social assistance systems among developing countries; however, the proportion of the population below the national poverty lines remains relatively high. Thus, we develop a micro-macro framework to assess the economic growth implications of expanding South Africa’s social grant system under alternative conditions. We find that conditional poverty-alleviation social transfers foster growth while unconditional redistribution towards lower-income earners can hinder economic growth. From policy perspectives, we show that the transfer of purchasing power to extremely poor beneficiaries and their economic participation are required for poverty-alleviation social transfers to have positive economic outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1090-1102"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141839369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal policy and public debt: Government investment is most effective to promote sustainability 财政政策和公共债务：政府投资对促进可持续性最为有效
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.002
Giovanna Ciaffi , Matteo Deleidi , Lorenzo Di Domenico
{"title":"Fiscal policy and public debt: Government investment is most effective to promote sustainability","authors":"Giovanna Ciaffi ,&nbsp;Matteo Deleidi ,&nbsp;Lorenzo Di Domenico","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper aims to quantify the effects of government expenditure and its components, i.e. government consumption and investment, on output and public debt sustainability. The Local Projections approach is applied to a dataset of 14 OECD countries considered for the 1981–2017 period. Fiscal policy shocks have been identified using the Blanchard and Perotti strategy and the narrative approach based on fiscal consolidation episodes. Multipliers of total government spending are above the unit and government investment multipliers are higher than consumption ones. Although all fiscal policy shocks reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio, government investment is the most effective tool for promoting public debt sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1186-1209"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141700098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Racial diversity, child stunting and underweight: Policies design and promotion in South Africa 种族多样性、儿童发育迟缓和体重不足：南非的政策设计与推广
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.009
Isaac Koomson , Clifford Afoakwah , Martinson Ankrah Twumasi
{"title":"Racial diversity, child stunting and underweight: Policies design and promotion in South Africa","authors":"Isaac Koomson ,&nbsp;Clifford Afoakwah ,&nbsp;Martinson Ankrah Twumasi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the effect of racial diversity on child stunting and underweight in post-apartheid South Africa, which has a strong history of systemic racial segregation. Using five waves of longitudinal data from the National Income Dynamics Survey (NIDS), and employing instrumental variable and propensity score matching methods, we find that racial diversity significantly reduces child stunting and underweight. This result is consistent across alternative measures of racial diversity, child stunting and underweight, and is also robust to different endogeneity-correction methods. The negative effect of racial diversity on child stunting and underweight is more pronounced among children under 5 years of age. Further analyses highlight increased employment opportunities, food expenditure per capita and financial inclusion as important channels through which racial diversity decreases stunting and underweight. We discuss the policy implications of these findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1243-1262"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141552365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ghana and the IMF: Policy shifts, economic bailouts and macroeconomic outcomes 加纳与国际货币基金组织：政策转变、经济救助和宏观经济成果
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.006
Suale Karimu
{"title":"Ghana and the IMF: Policy shifts, economic bailouts and macroeconomic outcomes","authors":"Suale Karimu","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ghana has a long history of engagement with the IMF. Successive governments of Ghana have sought economic bailouts from the IMF due to worsening domestic macroeconomic stability. This paper examines Ghana’s historical engagement with the IMF and the associated macroeconomic outcomes, and offers lessons for economic restructuring and growth beyond the bailouts. The paper explores the common patterns of the key macroeconomic variables and possible latent causal effects. The results reveal intermittent and short-term effects of the IMF programs. The bailouts often have a short-term impact on macroeconomic stability and growth, but the effects are unsustainable in the long term, especially after the IMF program ends.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 6","pages":"Pages 1146-1164"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142205826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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