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Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

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Internalizing social value in healthcare: Optimal policy in mixed public-private systems 医疗保健的社会价值内部化：公私混合系统中的最优政策
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.007
Erez Yerushalmi , Sani Ziv
{"title":"Internalizing social value in healthcare: Optimal policy in mixed public-private systems","authors":"Erez Yerushalmi ,&nbsp;Sani Ziv","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the interplay between public and private healthcare in a system that internalizes non-marketed social value. We provide new estimates of the healthcare social value and highlight the importance of integrating it into national accounts for effective macroeconomic policy analysis. Traditional metrics often undervalue healthcare by neglecting these externalities, leading to a suboptimal allocation of healthcare services from a societal perspective. While both public and private healthcare generate social value, determining the optimal public-private mix is challenging because they do not necessarily produce the same type of value, and an unregulated mixed system can impose negative fiscal externalities on public provision. To address these issues, we develop a general equilibrium model with dual public-private healthcare services, calibrate the non-marketed social value, and simulate two market liberalization scenarios with optimal Pigouvian tax policies. A key finding with significant policy implications is that healthcare social value accounts for at least 28 % of public healthcare expenditure, or more.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 3","pages":"Pages 512-536"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144255240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital Consumption Index for ASEAN-6: A proxy developed with China as benchmark 东盟6国数字消费指数：以中国为基准开发的代理指标
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.08.001
Shaoying Wu, Yew Joe Ho
{"title":"Digital Consumption Index for ASEAN-6: A proxy developed with China as benchmark","authors":"Shaoying Wu,&nbsp;Yew Joe Ho","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.08.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.08.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The nexus between economic growth and digitalization is increasingly intertwined. Challenges related to data availability and continuity have posed significant impediments to the development of viable measurements, such as the digital economy index and digital adoption index, for tracking the level of digitalization in emerging markets like the ASEAN-6. This paper introduces a proxy digital economy index that is both concise and adaptable to mitigate the current shortcomings. Employing a hierarchical equal-weighted method with China as the benchmark, a short series of the Digital Consumer Index was computed from 2017 to 2022. The findings of the paper suggests that ASEAN-6 nations must collectively intensify their efforts to bolster digital transformation. The proposed index establishes a foundational framework for future advancements. It facilitates a more immediate assessment of the digital economy's trajectory within ASEAN countries, allowing policymakers to make informed decisions while concurrently setting the stage for more comprehensive digital economy accounting practices in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 3","pages":"Pages 551-568"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144255241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Immunity-driven comparative advantage and its palliative effect on social health and inequality 免疫驱动的比较优势及其对社会健康和不平等的缓和作用
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.008
Sugata Marjit , Gouranga G. Das , Mausumi Kar
{"title":"Immunity-driven comparative advantage and its palliative effect on social health and inequality","authors":"Sugata Marjit ,&nbsp;Gouranga G. Das ,&nbsp;Mausumi Kar","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a model of “trade” between high-income and low-income groups where the rich, fearing the spread of infection hires the poor for exposure-intensive outdoor activities as workers in the household industry. The greater the inequality, with social distancing and herd-immunity during Covid-19 pandemic, the more would be such inter-personal exchanges increasing demand for top-skilled and gig activities. The general equilibrium model and econometric estimation support this view offering policymakers insights to assess the impact of such gainful exchanges for improving wage inequality in the developing nations where informal sectors cushioned the income-inequality effects unlike the developed countries without informalization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 3","pages":"Pages 607-632"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144255411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Efficiency in poverty reduction in Bolivia 玻利维亚减少贫困的效率
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.001
Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza , Alejandro Puerta-Cuartas , Javier Beverinotti
{"title":"Efficiency in poverty reduction in Bolivia","authors":"Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza ,&nbsp;Alejandro Puerta-Cuartas ,&nbsp;Javier Beverinotti","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A decline in poverty at the national level can mask regional disparities related to heterogeneous levels of efficiency among states that may limit the effectiveness of poverty reduction programs. To address this, we propose an empirical framework to unveil regional differences in poverty reduction and their drivers. Our method identifies the potential for poverty reduction and the factors crucial for designing place-based public policies. Applying this method to Bolivia for the period 2000–2021, we find that inefficiency in poverty reduction is largely persistent in specific states, underscoring the need for long-term strategies, especially those targeting informality and unemployment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 3","pages":"Pages 569-587"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144255242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A tale of the two recessions 2008 and 2020: What do the Taylor rule, the Phillips curve and Okun's law tell? 2008年和2020年两次衰退的故事：泰勒法则、菲利普斯曲线和奥肯定律说明了什么？
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.02.001
Knut L. Seip , Dan Zhang
{"title":"A tale of the two recessions 2008 and 2020: What do the Taylor rule, the Phillips curve and Okun's law tell?","authors":"Knut L. Seip ,&nbsp;Dan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.02.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The study compares the recessions in 2008 and the recession in 2020 using the Taylor rule, Okun’s law and the Phillips curve. We propose measures to forecast recessions and guide policy responses to mitigate their impact: i) Sharp “spikes” in the 21-month moving average of Okun’s law and Phillips curve variables indicate that shifts in their lead-lag relations could serve as early warning signals for impending recessions; ii) A more balanced increase in monetary supply could potentially shorten recession durations without accelerating inflation during the post-recession recovery; iii) deviations from the Taylor rule did not worsen the economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 3","pages":"Pages 681-701"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144255413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improving waste collectors' environmental responsibilities in Indonesia: A policy framework 改善印度尼西亚废物收集者的环境责任：政策框架
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.005
Made Adi Widyatmika, Nomesh B. Bolia
{"title":"Improving waste collectors' environmental responsibilities in Indonesia: A policy framework","authors":"Made Adi Widyatmika,&nbsp;Nomesh B. Bolia","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The responsibility of the garbage collector officer towards the environment largely determines the reliability of the waste management<span> system. The study develops a policy framework for a waste management system using an SEM approach to the environmental responsibility of a garbage collector officer. From a case study in Indonesia, a survey of 246 formal waste collectors in Denpasar’s waste management system assessed their opinion of the internal service quality. The analysis determines the impact of internal service quality elements on job satisfaction and environmental responsibility. Model-fit statistics confirm the validity and reliability of the model and indicate that tangibility, reliability, assurance, and empathy positively affect job satisfaction. Meanwhile, management responsiveness does not have a statistically significant effect. The study suggests that waste management should acknowledge the indirect influence of internal service quality on the environmental responsibility of waste collectors through job satisfaction factors.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 3","pages":"Pages 537-550"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141553082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Overeducation under different macroeconomic conditions: How Spanish university graduates fit in the labor market? 不同宏观经济条件下的过度教育：西班牙大学毕业生如何适应劳动力市场？
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.001
Maite Blázquez Cuesta, Marco A. Pérez Navarro, Rocío Sánchez-Mangas
{"title":"Overeducation under different macroeconomic conditions: How Spanish university graduates fit in the labor market?","authors":"Maite Blázquez Cuesta,&nbsp;Marco A. Pérez Navarro,&nbsp;Rocío Sánchez-Mangas","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes a relevant issue for education and labor policymakers, overeducation in the early careers of university graduates. Using Spanish data, we investigate the role played by the business cycle and field of study and their interaction in shaping both the incidence and persistence of overeducation. We also analyze the relevance of specific types of knowledge and skills as driving factors in reducing overeducation risk. Our data come from the Survey on the Labor Insertion of University Graduates (EILU) conducted by the Spanish National Statistics Institute in 2014 and 2019. The survey collects rich information on cohorts that graduated in 2019 and 2014, during the Great Recession and the subsequent economic recovery, respectively. Our results show, first, the relevance of the economic scenario when graduates enter the labor market. Graduation during a recession increases overeducation risk and persistence. Second, a clear heterogeneous pattern is observed across fields of study, with health sciences graduates displaying better performance in terms of both overeducation incidence and persistence and less impact of the business cycle. Third, we find evidence that some transversal skills can help to reduce overeducation risk in the absence of specific knowledge required for the job, thus indicating some kind of compensatory role. Our findings have important policy implications. Overeducation, and more importantly overeducation persistence, imply a non-neglectable misallocation of resources, with serious consequences not only for the affected individuals but for the society as a whole. Therefore, policymakers need to address this issue in the design of education and labor market policies, seeking to ensure that the competencies acquired at university provide graduates with a better fit in the labor market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 2","pages":"Pages 448-470"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Education Expenditures and Growth: Is R&D the link? 教育支出与增长：研发是其中的联系吗？
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.003
Danai Diakodimitriou , Alexandros Tsioutsios , Theofanis Papageorgiou
{"title":"Education Expenditures and Growth: Is R&D the link?","authors":"Danai Diakodimitriou ,&nbsp;Alexandros Tsioutsios ,&nbsp;Theofanis Papageorgiou","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article empirically investigates the relationship between education expenditures and economic growth. The study focuses on European countries with different models of state intervention, i.e. Germany, France, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal, for the period 1996–2019, employing econometric techniques, such as adaptive LASSO and 3SLS model. The study finds that education expenditure significantly influences GDP per capita identifying the R&amp;D expenditures as the main channel through which education expenditures influence economic growth. The findings are consistent throughout the sample. Also, we extend the existing literature, as the first research to empirically identify R&amp;D expenditures as the key channel, leading to useful insights for policy makers, regarding economic growth. Specifically, it indicates that strategic funding allocation in education, particularly paired with R&amp;D, should boost economic growth and resilience. This positive outcome leads to optimized allocation of public expenditures for innovation and competitiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 2","pages":"Pages 322-337"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Politically optimal lockdowns with vaccine hesitancy: Theory and evidence from Switzerland 政治上最优的封锁与疫苗犹豫：来自瑞士的理论和证据
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.005
Petar Stankov
{"title":"Politically optimal lockdowns with vaccine hesitancy: Theory and evidence from Switzerland","authors":"Petar Stankov","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Literature on optimal lockdowns is abundant. However, when are lockdowns <em>politically</em> optimal? Specifically, is there a level of restrictions that a majority will be ready to tolerate, thereby minimising political conflict over optimal policy choices? The answers emerge from an extended voter preferences framework, where citizens living in a pandemic choose their vaccination status, and some are vaccine-hesitant. The model demonstrates that a society will be ready to tolerate harder restrictions when citizens are more productive or their vaccine salience is higher. However, the productivity and vaccine salience effects are mitigated by the government’s capacity for fiscal transfers. Similar to other political economy models of intra-pandemic societies, zero restrictions emerge as politically optimal in societies with sufficiently high vaccine hesitancy or low productivity. Canton-level evidence from the 2021 Swiss referendum on expanding COVID-19 restrictions offers strong support for the theory. A discussion of policy implications completes the analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 2","pages":"Pages 358-370"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The multiple impact of remittances on poverty in developing countries: Direct effects and through human capital 汇款对发展中国家贫困的多重影响：直接影响和通过人力资本的影响
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.02.002
Pablo A. Garcia-Fuentes , P. Lynn Kennedy , William R. Ash
{"title":"The multiple impact of remittances on poverty in developing countries: Direct effects and through human capital","authors":"Pablo A. Garcia-Fuentes ,&nbsp;P. Lynn Kennedy ,&nbsp;William R. Ash","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.02.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.02.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper assesses the impacts of remittances on poverty for 130 developing countries for the period 1990–2019. It finds that remittances decrease poverty through their direct effect and increase human capital which enhances the total effects of remittances on poverty. A 10 % increase in per capita remittances decreases the poverty level by 1.3 %, poverty depth by 2 %, and poverty severity by 3.12 %. In addition, human capital decreases poverty level, depth, and severity. This supports the notion that developing countries should adopt policies that lower remittance costs and promote education to increase the impacts of remittances on poverty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 2","pages":"Pages 428-447"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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