Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献_第5页

Energy price increases and mitigation policies: Redistributive effects on Italian households 能源价格上涨与缓解政策：对意大利家庭的再分配效应

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.006

Andrea Bonfatti , Elena Giarda

引用次数: 0

The effectiveness of fiscal policy in DR Congo: Spending and taxing for macroeconomic impact 刚果民主共和国财政政策的有效性：支出和税收对宏观经济的影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.002

M'pya Banza M , Mumbere Lubula E , Kamala Kaghoma C

{"title":"The effectiveness of fiscal policy in DR Congo: Spending and taxing for macroeconomic impact","authors":"M'pya Banza M , Mumbere Lubula E , Kamala Kaghoma C","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), focusing on its impact on GDP, aggregate demand, private consumption, and investment. Employing a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with Bayesian estimation, the study accounts for the distinct dynamics of Ricardian and non-Ricardian households within the DRC’s socio-economic context. The results indicate that public investment expenditures significantly enhance GDP and household consumption, while current expenditures often fail to stimulate aggregate demand due to corruption and inefficiencies. Conversely, tax reductions are shown to positively influence macroeconomic variables, underlining their importance in fiscal policy design. The findings highlight the critical role of well-targeted fiscal strategies in promoting economic stability and growth in developing economies. Policy recommendations emphasize prioritizing public investment, implementing tax reforms during economic downturns, and addressing systemic corruption to maximize fiscal policy’s macroeconomic impact.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 2","pages":"Pages 298-321"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Right-wing election success and European Banks: Evidence from the 2024 European Elections 右翼选举成功与欧洲银行：来自2024年欧洲选举的证据

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.004

Markus Tiemann

引用次数: 0

Interest subvention for crop loans in India: Win-win or win-lose ? 印度农作物贷款利息补贴：双赢还是双输？

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.006

Disha Bhanot , Vivek Farias , Deeksha Sinha

{"title":"Interest subvention for crop loans in India: Win-win or win-lose ?","authors":"Disha Bhanot , Vivek Farias , Deeksha Sinha","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>Interest subsidies on crop loans are a common feature of rural credit markets in developing countries. The objective behind giving interest subsidies is two-fold – increasing access to credit and improving loan repayment<span> rates, and is therefore regarded as a win-win for the borrower and the lender. This study focusses on a policy intervention that provides interest subsidy for crop loans availed under the Kisan Credit Card (KCC) scheme - India's flagship program to provide short-term agricultural credit for farmers. Using a unique dataset from a large public sector bank in India, we evaluate the causal impact of this intervention on both credit access and loan repayment behavior. We also capture the heterogeneous impact of the policy on new and existing borrowers. The results of econometric analysis - a combination of matching and difference-in-difference techniques - show a substantial increase (35%) in new loans, in addition to 20% decrease in the overall loan amount, indicating increased breadth and depth of access. However, contrary to standard </span></span>economic theories<span>, we observe a reduction in odds of repayment. Further, we find that the interest rate subsidy worsens the repayment rates of existing borrowers too. Our findings underscore the importance of various operational and behavioral aspects of the agricultural lending ecosystem to design win-win credit policies.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 2","pages":"Pages 371-393"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141152982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modelling global water policies 模拟全球水资源政策

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.010

Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo , Richard Damania

{"title":"Modelling global water policies","authors":"Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo , Richard Damania","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article develops an analysis of evolving water availability through a novel global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model that moves beyond existing approaches by incorporating both precipitation and total water storage (TWS)– a more comprehensive measure of water availability encompassing surface water, groundwater, and soil moisture. To this aim, the article first provides an overview of the problem of economic modelling of water in a general equilibrium context, through a review of CGE models that have attempted to deal with water as a key economic input and its direct and indirect influence on markets and well-being. Secondly, it includes the health effects of inadequate water supply and sanitation (WASH), capturing a key dimension of water availability and its distributional effects. Third, it provides a granular representation of how water enters in the different value chains, providing novel suggestions and a better understanding of how water widespread influence across sectors may contribute to a more significant impact of climate change than estimated by other studies. Simulations are employed to evaluate the costs associated with policy inaction under various water scenarios, including those influenced by climate change, offering crucial guidance for proactive policy interventions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 2","pages":"Pages 407-427"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The intractability of public debt in post-independent Zimbabwe: An international comparison 独立后津巴布韦棘手的公共债务：一个国际比较

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.009

Freeman Munisi Mateko , Barbra Maiwasha , Emmanuel Tsara

{"title":"The intractability of public debt in post-independent Zimbabwe: An international comparison","authors":"Freeman Munisi Mateko , Barbra Maiwasha , Emmanuel Tsara","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How has public and publicly guaranteed debt in post-independent Zimbabwe relentlessly spiralled over time? The mixed method study aimed to determine the causes and effects that have triggered a debt crisis in Zimbabwe. Descriptive data on public debt was obtained from the World Bank portal for the period 1980–2022. The research used documentary evidence obtained from online repositories. Documentary analysis was used under the data analysis section. Research findings indicated that high public debt was a result of continuous borrowing from financial institutions, corruption, weak institutions, non-adherence to the available legal frameworks, unbudgeted expenditures, as well as a lack of transparency and accountability in public debt management. It was also established that unsustainable public debt in Zimbabwe led to slow economic growth and a loss of creditworthiness status. The novelty of the research is on the basis of examining the causes and effects of public debt as well as providing solutions. These research findings imply that Zimbabwe must reduce its public debt levels in order to improve its capacity to meet macro-economic objectives and attain sustainable development goals. In terms of policy recommendations, it was suggested that there is a need for implementing public debt policy, debt transparency, a strong commitment to deal with corruption, responsible and restrained government borrowing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 2","pages":"Pages 394-406"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Discrimination based on employer preferences: The height premium in China 基于雇主偏好的歧视：中国的身高溢价

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.002

Fei Peng , Lili Kang , Xiaocong Yang , Sajid Anwar

{"title":"Discrimination based on employer preferences: The height premium in China","authors":"Fei Peng , Lili Kang , Xiaocong Yang , Sajid Anwar","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the policy issue of height-based discrimination in China's labour market using a comprehensive nationwide survey dataset spanning from 1989 to 2015. Employing a theoretical framework that considers statistical discrimination resulting from employer preferences for cognitive and non-cognitive skills associated with productivity, the research investigates the impact of height on hourly wages. The empirical analysis reveals a height premium of approximately 5.97 % per ten-centimetre increase and identifies educational attainment as a factor explaining about one-third of this premium. Furthermore, the study finds that female employees with higher education levels experience greater height premiums. Interestingly, the height premium is smaller in the public sector, senior technical occupations, in regions with a collectivist culture that centres around traditional rice-growing practices, and during the earlier transition period (before 2000) when cognitive skills held more significance. These findings suggest the widespread occurrence of height-based statistical discrimination in China’s labour market and underscore the necessity for the policy interventions of health care and nutrition intake in early life and the later effective anti-discrimination regulations in labour market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 2","pages":"Pages 276-297"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144137714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Increasing taxes on ‘bads’ and reducing them on ‘goods’: A double dividend hypothesis of carbon taxation 增加对“坏”的征税，减少对“好”的征税：碳税的双重红利假设

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.002

Gurleen Kaur Malhotra , Amlendu Dubey

引用次数: 0

Lowering trade barriers improves income distribution and economic resiliency 降低贸易壁垒可以改善收入分配和经济弹性

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.004

Maksym Chepeliev , Maryla Maliszewska , Israel Osorio-Rodarte , Maria Filipa Seara e Pereira , Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

{"title":"Lowering trade barriers improves income distribution and economic resiliency","authors":"Maksym Chepeliev , Maryla Maliszewska , Israel Osorio-Rodarte , Maria Filipa Seara e Pereira , Dominique van der Mensbrugghe","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The U.S.-China trade war, COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to calls for greater economic self-sufficiency by exposing gaps in international collaboration and the uncertainty of global supply chains. In this study, we apply a comprehensive global modeling framework to enhance understanding of the potential impacts of fragmentation of global value chains. Supporting the general argument toward economic benefits from open markets our analysis contributes to the policy debate in two important dimensions of this phenomenon—distributional impacts and economic resiliency. We find that tariff liberalization and trade facilitation measures implemented by developing countries could not only reduce between-country inequality but also result in progressive within-country income distribution primarily through lowering food prices, as well as increasing unskilled wages. In addition, using a case study of disruption to Thailand’s electronics industry, we find higher resiliency of developing countries to external shocks in the globalized (as opposed to a localized) world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 1","pages":"Pages 30-48"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Is there worldwide convergence toward the SDGs? 世界范围内是否存在可持续发展目标的趋同？

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.002

Simona Bigerna, Silvia Micheli

引用次数: 0