Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

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Government policies in managing food price anomalies: Evidence from Iran 政府管理粮价异常的政策:来自伊朗的证据
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.006
Mehdi Shabanzadeh-Khoshrody , Saeed Shahabi Ahangarkolaee , Ebrahim Javdan , Reza Esfanjari Kenari
{"title":"Government policies in managing food price anomalies: Evidence from Iran","authors":"Mehdi Shabanzadeh-Khoshrody ,&nbsp;Saeed Shahabi Ahangarkolaee ,&nbsp;Ebrahim Javdan ,&nbsp;Reza Esfanjari Kenari","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Food price volatility presents a persistent policy challenge for resource-dependent economies, particularly during periods of global shocks and country-specific external pressures, such as international sanctions in the case of Iran. This study examines the effectiveness of two major policy instruments -exchange rate management and monetary policy- in mitigating food price anomalies in Iran. Using seasonal data from 2004 to 2022 and employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research identifies the key drivers of food price anomalies and evaluates the relative and joint impact of exchange rate depreciation and money supply growth. Results show that the most severe anomalies coincided with global crises (2007–2008, 2011, 2020, 2022) and intensified sanctions (2011–2012, 2018). Exchange rate depreciation and expansionary monetary policy significantly increased anomalies in both the short and long run, while higher import volumes helped dampen price fluctuations. Notably, monetary policy exhibited the strongest and most persistent effect. The error correction mechanism indicates a slow adjustment process, suggesting long-lasting impacts of shocks. The study recommends greater coordination between monetary and exchange rate policies, along with fiscal discipline, exchange rate unification, subsidy reforms, inflation-aligned interest rates, and strengthened strategic reserves to enhance resilience in Iran’s food market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 1","pages":"Pages 73-88"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ruble resilience or euro dominance? The impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the euro-ruble exchange rate 卢布的弹性还是欧元的主导地位?俄乌战争对欧元-卢布汇率的影响
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.020
Sagiru Mati , Goran Yousif Ismael , Raad Abdelhalim Ibrahim Alsakarneh , Nazifi Aliyu
{"title":"Ruble resilience or euro dominance? The impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the euro-ruble exchange rate","authors":"Sagiru Mati ,&nbsp;Goran Yousif Ismael ,&nbsp;Raad Abdelhalim Ibrahim Alsakarneh ,&nbsp;Nazifi Aliyu","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.020","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.020","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span><span>The ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war changes the dynamics of macroeconomic variables, including the Euro-Ruble exchange rate. While existing studies model the immediate impact of the war on the Euro-Ruble exchange rate, a comprehensive understanding of the war’s steady-state effect on the Euro-Ruble parity remains crucial. To this end, the current study investigates the immediate and steady-state impacts of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the Euro-Ruble exchange rate using an intervention </span>time series approach. The study finds that the immediate impact of the war resulted in a 21 % reduction in the daily growth rate of the Euro-Ruble exchange rate. However, the steady-state effect translates to a 26 % reduction in growth. Our findings have implications for trade, </span>inflation, and investment across both European and Russian economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 1","pages":"Pages 60-72"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Environmental innovation policy and SDGs in Europe: Interplay of patents, policy and R&D expenditures 欧洲的环境创新政策和可持续发展目标:专利、政策和研发支出的相互作用
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.04.002
Volkan Göçoğlu , Serkan Göksu
{"title":"Environmental innovation policy and SDGs in Europe: Interplay of patents, policy and R&D expenditures","authors":"Volkan Göçoğlu ,&nbsp;Serkan Göksu","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.04.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.04.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>The European Union's<span> (EU) environmental innovation policy mainly adopts an incremental approach, with a superficial emphasis on sustainable development, lacking a specific focus on the </span></span>Sustainable Development Goals<span> (SDGs). Although the SDGs present a window of opportunity for a broader approach to innovative solutions to global environmental problems, their neglect also emerges in scholarly research on environmental innovation. Aiming to fill this gap, this study presents a novel and holistic incremental approach to the EU's environmental innovation policy by adopting the SDGs as the key framework and forming a comprehensive empirical model on 14 member countries with prominent variables consistent with the EU's official policies. The results suggest that governments should increase environmental policy stringency (EPS) and policymakers should foster research and development (R&amp;D) expenditures and bolster environmental innovation to align with existing initiatives, particularly within SDGs 7, 9, and 13. Finally, indicators 9.4.1 for SDG9 and 13.2.1 for SDG13 can serve as essential reference points in strengthening the legal framework for EPS.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 1","pages":"Pages 178-195"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does employment and autonomy influence safe menstrual hygiene in India? 就业和自主是否影响印度的安全经期卫生?
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.005
Anviksha Drall , Sumirtha Gandhi
{"title":"Does employment and autonomy influence safe menstrual hygiene in India?","authors":"Anviksha Drall ,&nbsp;Sumirtha Gandhi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Menstrual Hygiene is often considered vital for formulating public health policies<span> in developing economies like India<span>, because the overall wellbeing<span> and social development of women could remarkably be compromised due to poor menstrual hygiene. This motivates us to analyse vital factors determining menstrual hygiene with an intent to suggest health policies related to menstrual hygiene.</span></span></span></div><div>The study finds that unemployed women practice better menstrual hygiene compared to the employed ones. Furthermore, the role of employment is found to be significant only if a woman possess autonomy, reflecting the complementarity between impact of autonomy and employment. Additionally, given that a woman is employed, those working in non-agriculture sector are found to demonstrate safe hygiene practices.</div><div>The study finds that women working in agriculture have poor menstrual hygiene compared to both unemployed women and those working in non-agricultural sector. This suggests better sanitation infrastructure at farms. Also, if sanitation facilities are made available to women their impact on menstrual hygiene depends on their autonomy status. Thus, policies pertaining to enhance sanitation facilities must accord with autonomy status of women.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 1","pages":"Pages 43-59"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Producer heterogeneity, insurance decisions and economic impacts of crop insurance 生产者异质性、保险决策与作物保险的经济影响
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.10.001
Charalampos Mavroutsikos , Konstantinos Giannakas , Cory Walters
{"title":"Producer heterogeneity, insurance decisions and economic impacts of crop insurance","authors":"Charalampos Mavroutsikos ,&nbsp;Konstantinos Giannakas ,&nbsp;Cory Walters","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.10.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.10.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper introduces the empirically relevant heterogeneity/differences in producer attitudes towards risk into the analysis of the economic impacts of crop insurance. Analytical results show that individual producer risk attitudes matter. Specifically, our study shows that the producer insurance decisions, the market shares of the different insurance options, and the welfare impacts of crop insurance are very much dependent on the producer aversion to risk as well as the risk exposure faced by producers, the reduction in this risk exposure offered by crop insurance, and the crop insurance premiums. Understanding the producer response to different crop insurance options is important for the formulation of policies that align with diverse risk profiles. Our analysis indicates that maintaining the status quo will further exacerbate regional differences in the economic impacts of crop insurance. Our analysis suggests that crop insurance policy design should consider a customized approach through a variable premium subsidy scheme to effectively address regional disparities in risk exposure and insurance coverage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 1","pages":"Pages 241-254"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Which countries performed better in the COVID-19 pandemic? Lessons from and for governments 哪些国家在COVID-19大流行中表现更好?来自政府的教训和对政府的启示
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.008
Hiroaki Masuhara , Kei Hosoya
{"title":"Which countries performed better in the COVID-19 pandemic? Lessons from and for governments","authors":"Hiroaki Masuhara ,&nbsp;Kei Hosoya","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study reviewed the COVID-19-related performance of OECD countries as well as Singapore and Taiwan in terms of deaths, vaccination status, production, consumption, and mobility from the early part of the pandemic to the end of 2022. We observe that permanent control of deaths was difficult to achieve, and even when deaths were reduced temporarily, many countries experienced a decline in consumption and/or production. Nevertheless, Norway in particular is a successful example in terms of balancing deaths, production, and consumption. Finally, we discuss policy implications based on economic preferences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 1","pages":"Pages 89-106"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Escaping the inactivity trap? The work incentive of the Spanish minimum income 摆脱不活动的陷阱?西班牙最低收入的工作激励
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.010
Hugo Cruces , Adrián Hernández , Edlira Narazani
{"title":"Escaping the inactivity trap? The work incentive of the Spanish minimum income","authors":"Hugo Cruces ,&nbsp;Adrián Hernández ,&nbsp;Edlira Narazani","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Spanish Minimum Income scheme, introduced in 2020, offers beneficiaries a unique national guaranteed income as a last-resort benefit. However, the scheme’s design featured a lack of work incentives for low earners, potentially leading to inactivity traps. To address this flaw the Spanish government introduced an earnings disregard in 2022, enabling beneficiaries to keep all or part of the benefit when their earnings increase up to a certain limit. This paper provides an <em>ex ante</em> assessment of this reform, looking into its expected fiscal, distributional and labour market effects using the tax–benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD, and the behavioural labour supply model EUROLAB. Our results show that the reform has the potential to incentivise work for very low earners, particularly lone parents, mainly by promoting part-time employment. The reform and its subsequent employment effects are also expected to slightly reduce inequality and poverty. While this is a step in the right direction, we discuss some avenues for improvement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 1","pages":"Pages 107-129"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Economic growth and environmental objectives: An evaluation based on 2021–2027 cohesion policy regional data 经济增长与环境目标:基于2021-2027年凝聚力政策区域数据的评价
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.04.003
Tryfonas Christou , Abián García-Rodríguez , Tillmann Heidelk , Nicholas-Joseph Lazarou , Philippe Monfort , Simone Salotti
{"title":"Economic growth and environmental objectives: An evaluation based on 2021–2027 cohesion policy regional data","authors":"Tryfonas Christou ,&nbsp;Abián García-Rodríguez ,&nbsp;Tillmann Heidelk ,&nbsp;Nicholas-Joseph Lazarou ,&nbsp;Philippe Monfort ,&nbsp;Simone Salotti","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.04.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.04.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The 2021–2027 cohesion policy programme is required to deliver on the European Union’s green transition priority facilitating reaching net zero emissions by 2050. Our analysis shows that green investments under this policy are expected to have a positive impact on GDP and employment, particularly in less developed regions. These investments can help reduce the costs of the transition, and also have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, cohesion policy alone cannot drive the transition and additional instruments and actions should be put in place to support all European territories.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 1","pages":"Pages 1-22"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Basic income reduces poverty and inequality: Are there costs in terms of efficiency? 基本收入减少了贫困和不平等:在效率方面有成本吗?
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.002
Francisco Lara , Xisco Oliver
{"title":"Basic income reduces poverty and inequality: Are there costs in terms of efficiency?","authors":"Francisco Lara ,&nbsp;Xisco Oliver","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Growing inequality since the eighties in most developed countries, together with the effects of recent economic crises, which affected more severely to lower incomes, pushed into the political agenda the need to improve the redistribution of the tax-benefit system. Systematically, one proposal to fight poverty and inequality is the implementation of a basic income. Detractors of this proposal argue that the cost of this measure is too high and criticise the potential disincentives to work and efficiency reduction. However, most studies simulating this kind of policy ignore the effects on employment and outcome. This paper simulates a bunch of reforms that replace the personal income tax with a basic income flat tax scheme. The analysis uses a behavioural microsimulation model of the Spanish tax-benefit system, which includes labour supply reactions. The results show that basic income - flat tax reform is feasible (in the sense that tax collection is kept constant in all simulations) and reduces poverty and inequality. However, the cost in terms of efficiency, measured by gross income and labour supply, is not negligible. This reduction in efficiency reduces social welfare and offsets the improvement of the social welfare achieved by the decrease of inequality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 1","pages":"Pages 23-42"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sacred and stray: Policy analysis for managing cattle population 神圣与流浪:牛群管理的政策分析
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.023
Ayushi Singh , Samir K. Srivastava
{"title":"Sacred and stray: Policy analysis for managing cattle population","authors":"Ayushi Singh ,&nbsp;Samir K. Srivastava","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.023","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.023","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The challenge of managing stray animal populations, which significantly impacts agricultural economies worldwide, has not been fully addressed in the extant literature. This paper examines the complexities of stray cattle management, with a particular focus on India, where laws prohibiting cattle slaughter contribute to the issue of unproductive cattle. Our findings indicate that in the short term, government funding should be directed towards strategies such as sexed-semen usage and sterilization, while sheltering proves effective in the long term. The policy of adoption shows effectiveness only when incentives are increased. Using System Dynamics Modeling, this study analyzes the impact of key policy interventions on the stray cattle population and proposes an optimal policy mix by evaluating the effectiveness of different interventions. The results highlight the necessity of strategic budget allocation and integrating diverse policies to control and manage the stray cattle population effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 1","pages":"Pages 196-217"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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