Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

{"title":"The impact of the shadow economy on the direct-indirect tax mix: Can central banks’ independence mitigate the effect?","authors":"Ioannis Dokas ,&nbsp;Minas Panagiotidis ,&nbsp;Stephanos Papadamou ,&nbsp;Eleftherios Spyromitros","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The recent financial crisis caused by corruption and opacity has led us to examine how the informal economy and other factors affect tax revenues using a three-pillar theoretical analysis. Empirical research has not thoroughly explored the shadow economy's impact on direct and indirect taxes, tax revenues, and the central bank's independence from the shadow economy and tax collection. This paper used 2010–2018 data from 129 countries. The shadow economy and tax revenues had a substantial negative relationship. The shadow economy also changed the fiscal authorities' policy mix by reducing direct taxes and increasing indirect taxes. Finally, the central bank's independence mitigated the shadow economy's negative effects on tax revenues.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 475-493"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140125927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inequalities in educational achievement: Effect of individuals’ capabilities & social identity","authors":"Diptanshu Gaur ,&nbsp;Shivendra Kumar Pandey ,&nbsp;Dheeraj Sharma","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We address the issue of inequalities in educational achievements among social groups, within the framework of Sustainable Development Goal 10 (SDG10). Despite efforts to distribute resources equitably and implement affirmative government actions, educational inequalities remain a significant challenge, partially due to the continuing impact of social group dynamics. Previous studies have emphasized the possibility of improving individual capabilities to address this issue. However, the quantitative studies that examine this issue are underexplored. We utilize data from the Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS) 2011–12 to examine the effect of individual capabilities and social group affiliations on educational achievements. We employ ordered logit regression, decomposition analysis, and instrumental variable approach to analyze the data. The findings of our study indicate that while government interventions and policies have had some impact, a more focused approach and policy change on individual capability is necessary. We propose a policy framework emphasizing early identification and development of key capabilities. These are mass media exposure, parental participation of professional groups, and good physical health, especially for marginalized sections. The study advocates for equipping schools with digital and mass media resources, establishing community programs for financial literacy, and engaging families to understand the importance of these capabilities. This dual approach aims to enhance individual capabilities and reduce the influence of social group dynamics, contributing to more equitable and inclusive educational outcomes and broader societal sustainability. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and contribute to the global debate on sustainable development and educational equality.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 494-513"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139764145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Labour supply responses to a negative income tax in Spain","authors":"Amadeo Fuenmayor, Rafael Granell, Teresa Savall","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.007","url":null,"abstract":"One of the major drawbacks of a Basic Income proposal is that it could induce people to reduce their labour supply. The main aim of this paper is to put forward a financially viable alternative to the current Spanish system of social protection, based on a Negative Income Tax proposal and introducing several changes in the social protection system. Using EUROMOD, the labour behavioural responses to these new conditions are studied in detail, using a structural model of labour supply.","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140576947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The never-ending debate: Do FDI promote institutional change? Evidence from India and partner countries","authors":"Khushboo Kumari,&nbsp;Renjith Ramachandran","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Institutional quality has been opined as a significant determinant of FDI inflow in international business literature. On the contrary, literature on determinants of institutional quality and how it changes is scant and merits further study. This study analyses the impact of FDI on institutional distance in the context of India and its partner countries, i.e., whether it leads to convergence or divergence of institutional distance. We identified a significantly positive impact of FDI on institutional distance. Further, to capture the heterogeneity among our partner countries, we subdivided our sample based on the partner country's development level and analysed the source of change in institutional distance.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 2","pages":"Pages 432-447"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138560879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sustainability reporting harmonisation? A utopian endeavour for European agri-food companies","authors":"Carlos Anguiano-Santos ,&nbsp;Melania Salazar-Ordóñez ,&nbsp;Rossana Tornel-Vázquez ,&nbsp;Macario Rodríguez-Entrena","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Regulatory harmonisation stands as a central issue in the European Union (EU), playing a key role in achieving the single market. Accounting harmonisation, in particular, has been the subject of different regulatory frameworks, mainly directives. However, the literature suggests that the implementation of these directives within the EU does not consistently meet its harmonisation goals due to diverse legal, cultural, and business interpretations among the Member States. In the realm of social and environmental accounting, Directive 2014/95/EU (NFRD) compels specific companies to prepare and present Sustainability Reports (SRs), with the primary goal of enhancing the availability of sustainability information while also fostering greater consistency and comparability. Nevertheless, the flexibility afforded by this Directive may give rise to divergences among the national regulations of the EU Member States, as has been the case previously. Therefore, this study aims to analyse the success of the NFRD in harmonising sustainability disclosure by examining the quantity and homogeneity of such information disclosed in the SRs of 100 large agri-food companies in Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, and Spain. To do so, a content analysis and non-parametric tests were applied. The findings show a limited performance and high heterogeneity in disclosure across countries, suggesting that the NFRD has fallen short of harmonising national regulations on disclosing sustainability information.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 2","pages":"Pages 354-368"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893824000103/pdfft?md5=ba3f1da40745226b0b3558ddd8ce5366&pid=1-s2.0-S0161893824000103-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139516331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"China’s macroeconomic performance affects trading partners: How can their policies respond?","authors":"Aftab Alam ,&nbsp;Jingmei Ma ,&nbsp;Ibrar Hussain","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>Utilizing expanded data analysis, this study aims to determine how China's macroeconomic performance<span> affects the global economy. Employing the Global Vector Auto Regression (GVAR) model, we investigate the impact of China's </span></span>macroeconomic variables<span> on the economies of its selected trading partners throughout the world. For 2000Q1–2019Q4, developed countries (the US, Hong Kong), developing Europe countries (Russian Federation and Poland), and two developing Asia countries (Vietnam and India) show that Chinese macroeconomic performance has a greater impact than middle east and central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Western hemisphere. The Chinese GDP shock hits emerging Europe harder because of its extensive Russian production network. Results reveal that Chinese depreciation impacts developing Europe and Asia, while the Chinese stock market shock hits advanced economies more. Advanced and developing Asian economies are greatly affected by TV shock. Chinese FDI affects the Middle East and Central Asia, because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. China trading partners use macroeconomic statistics to assess their economic priorities, industrial strengths, and weaknesses to create national interest plans. Currency adjustment, </span></span>trade policies, domestic stimulus, and market diversification can minimize negative effects or capitalize on possibilities from China's macroeconomic conditions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 2","pages":"Pages 448-474"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139639743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Targeting profits: The economic impact of arms embargoes on defense companies","authors":"Jeroen Klomp","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study explores the impact of arms embargoes on the economic performance of major international defense companies. The direction of this effect is not immediately clear as it relies on the embargo evading opportunities by exporting companies on the one hand and the stringency of enforcement by the sending state on the other. The main findings in this study indicate that the total revenues of a defense company significantly drop after the introduction of an arms embargo. As a result, the net profits of these companies are under downward pressure when the number of arms embargoes increases globally. It turns out that the ability of a firm to effectively mitigate the negative consequences of an embargo is both related to firm-specific particularities, such as the degree of diversification, as well as, country differences. For instance, the negative effect appears, in particular, to be present in countries with a strong rule of law or effective control of corruption.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 2","pages":"Pages 391-416"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139764148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Net Interest Income of Greek Banks: is it a case of Bankflation?","authors":"George Agiomirgianakis ,&nbsp;Stavros Arvanitis ,&nbsp;Emmanuel Mamatzakis ,&nbsp;George Sfakianakis","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>On 27th of July 2022, the European Central Bank (ECB) responding to emerging inflation pressures increased the interest rate of the main refinancing operation to 0.5% up from 0.0% which was the norm for the second half of the previous decade. Since then, the ECB responded to inflationary shocks by increasing interest rates nine more times till 20 September 2023, reaching 4.5%. Following these unprecedented hikes in ECB interest rates, Greek banks responded swiftly by raising their lending interest rates, whereas they kept deposit rates at very low levels with the net interest margin (NIM) being at 2.6% in the first half of 2023 compared to 1.5% in the Euro-area while in November 2023, the Greek NIM was raised further to 4.83%, which was more than twice the corresponding NIM at 2.4% of Euro Area banks. Our dynamic panel VAR analysis study examines whether the oligopolistic structure of the Greek banking industry contributes to this divergence in NIM. This high NIM has induced a staggering increase in net interest income of Greek banks by 59.9% in 2023 compared to 2022 from 2.54 mil euros to 4.07 mil euros. During the same period, Greece reported a negative saving rate at − 4%, as people resorted to their savings to cope with greedflation in consumer goods. We show that successive interest rate hikes by the ECB aimed to reduce inflation have positively contributed to the sustainability of the Greek banking industry by building up stronger capital buffers and accelerating amortization of the deferred tax credits mainly through the channel of NIM. Alas, the high cost of diverging Greek NIM from the rest of the Euro Area hurts credit expansion and fuels existing greedflation by generating its own bankflation. Our study shows that EU policymakers should accelerate the banking union in the Euro Area which would enhance competitive pressures for Greek banks and potentially reduce NIM and tackle bankflation. The regaining of Greece’s investment grade gives the impetus to the convergence of Greek NIM to euro area ones.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 2","pages":"Pages 417-431"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139764142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The transition from COVID-19 infections to deaths: Do governance quality and corruption affect it?","authors":"Bartosz Gebka ,&nbsp;Rama Prasad Kanungo ,&nbsp;John Wildman","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate the impact of governance quality and corruption on the propensity of COVID-19 infections to result in deaths, while controlling for a wide range of socio-economic country characteristics, for 139 countries. Governance quality is negatively associated with mortality from COVID-19, for a given number of infections. This result holds for the aggregate governance index and for most of its components, in particular government effectiveness, rule of law, and control of corruption. Corruption among business executives, judges and magistrates, the legislature, and among government officials exerts the largest impact on COVID-induced deaths. We propose directions for future policy initiatives.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 2","pages":"Pages 235-253"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893824000024/pdfft?md5=1db58935cc585e639aec97fcd063d2a1&pid=1-s2.0-S0161893824000024-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139515997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enterprise R&D, manufacturing innovation and macroeconomic impact: An evaluation of China’s Policy","authors":"Qinyue Zheng ,&nbsp;Xingmin Wang ,&nbsp;Chunbing Bao","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Amidst economic downturn pressures, major countries emphasized the manufacturing industry<span> and increased research and development (R&amp;D) investments to realize innovation in manufacturing. Manufacturing enterprises are the main performers of R&amp;D investments, so it is imperative for policymakers to accurately evaluate the policy effect of different industrial tendency and policy intensity on growth. The impact of the overall R&amp;D expenditure on macroeconomy or the effectiveness of enterprises’ R&amp;D investment on business profit has been reported in a great deal of literature, but so far, the impacts of enterprises’ R&amp;D have little been experimented at the macro level and industrial level. This paper improves the knowledge production function and structured a regional dynamic computable general equilibrium model<span> to simulate the multi-dimensional macroeconomic impact of enterprises’ R&amp;D investment. The results show that enterprises’ R&amp;D investment has a significant role in promoting economic output, residents’ welfare, price control, and international trade, and its impact is declining over time. The impacts of enterprises’ R&amp;D on different </span></span></span>industries are heterogeneous; industries with lower knowledge capital are more sensitive to R&amp;D investment. These findings contribute to the effectiveness of R&amp;D policies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 2","pages":"Pages 289-303"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135685960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}