Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献_第6页

Building a hydrogen economy: Does France have the industrial capacity for a low-carbon transition? 建设氢经济：法国是否具备向低碳转型的工业能力？

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.11.001

Raphael Guionie, Lionel Lemiale, Rodica Loisel

{"title":"Building a hydrogen economy: Does France have the industrial capacity for a low-carbon transition?","authors":"Raphael Guionie, Lionel Lemiale, Rodica Loisel","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The energy transition towards low-carbon hydrogen (H<sub>2</sub>) in France is expected to require deep industrial planning to develop electrolysis and H<sub>2</sub> production infrastructure. This study employs an input–output method to simulate a new sector of electrolysis-produced hydrogen (e-H<sub>2</sub>) that supplies two-hydrogen intensive sectors, petroleum refining and ammonia. We construct two input–output models, a demand-driven model for e-H<sub>2</sub> sector development (the investment phase) and a mixed model for e-H<sub>2</sub> production (the operation phase). The results demonstrate that the e-H<sub>2</sub> sector depends on industries such as machinery, electrical equipment, construction and metal products manufacturing in the investment phase, with strong backward linkages to the power sector in the exploitation phase. The results reveal that the energy shock (350 kt of e-H<sub>2</sub> per year) generates significant growth (€1.3 Bn of gross domestic product) and jobs (3600), but strongly depends on industries’ capability to expand and recruit. Recommendations advise public policy development to address the need to reinforce key industries to support e-H<sub>2</sub> production due to inter-industry dependence and the need for more attractive skilled and technician jobs in sectors that are already experiencing recruitment tensions. At much higher e-H<sub>2</sub> shocks in the steel sector (700 kt e-H<sub>2</sub>) and other industries (415 kt e-H<sub>2</sub>), even greater amounts of domestic resources would be required. Therefore, de-carbonising the entire H<sub>2</sub> sector require ambitious policy planning to support industrial empowerment, research programmes and labour training so that H<sub>2</sub> becomes an enabling technology of the energy transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 1","pages":"Pages 130-151"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does stigmatization worsen the living standard of people who suffer from it in Africa? 污名化是否使非洲遭受污名化的人的生活水平恶化？

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.10.002

Mathieu Juliot Mpabe Bodjongo

引用次数: 0

Can regulatory enforced disclosure policy enhance earnings quality of banks? 监管强制披露政策能否提高银行盈余质量？

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.07.001

Soumik Bhusan , Manish Bansal , G. Naresh

{"title":"Can regulatory enforced disclosure policy enhance earnings quality of banks?","authors":"Soumik Bhusan , Manish Bansal , G. Naresh","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.07.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.07.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Indian banking system was exposed to a regulatory overhaul during 2015–2016 through many policy reforms. These reforms came in tandem with the asset quality review (AQR) instituted by the banking regulator. One of such reforms was an enforcement of mandatory disclosures which aimed at improving earnings quality. The banking regulator framed these disclosures in terms of divergence in asset qualities between the regulator and the banks. The goal was to limit the opportunistic behavior of banks, reduce their ability to suppress unfavorable information, and improve certainty about the banking sector – which is opaque in general. Therefore, our study examines the efficacy of this policy – whether the mandatory disclosure policy reduced information asymmetry making the banks better disciplined, thereby alleviating to an extent the moral hazard problem. Using fixed effects panel regression and generalised methods of moments (GMM), we find divergence disclosure to have a positive effect on earnings quality. We witnessed banks to reduce the discretionary portion of the loan loss provisioning after the enforcement of divergence disclosure. Thus, the policy-making process to improve transparency and surfacing ‘good’ versus the ‘bad’ banks was effective and derived the intended results. Furthermore, our study recommends institutionalizing a metric driven policy approach to steer regulatory outcomes. For example, we propose the policy convergence initiated in 2022, to adopt the expected credit loss standard for credit impairment from the current incurred loss to be looked at with the lens of earnings quality. A mandatory disclosure with divergence in provision between the two credit loss models could be a possible solution to ensure realization of the intended policy outcome.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"48 1","pages":"Pages 218-240"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The role of data trading platforms (DTPs) in digital technology innovation: Mechanisms and evidence from China 数据交易平台在数字技术创新中的作用：机制和来自中国的证据

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.003

Yun Yang , Yushuang Li , Xueping Liang

{"title":"The role of data trading platforms (DTPs) in digital technology innovation: Mechanisms and evidence from China","authors":"Yun Yang , Yushuang Li , Xueping Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Data constitute the cornerstone of the digital technology era and the key to driving the paradigm shift of digital technology innovation and improving innovation efficiency. However, this cannot be achieved without an efficient and secure data trading system. To enhance the role of data in digital technology innovation, some prefecture-level cities in China have established data trading platforms(DTPs). Based on data from Chinese listed companies for the period 2010–2023, this paper examined the influence of DTPs on digital technology innovation of companies by applying a time-varying difference-in-differences (DID) model. We find that the number of digital technology innovations of companies increased by 3.1 % in prefecture-level cities with DTPs compared with those without DTPs, validating the extraordinary role of data trading in enhancing the dynamic capabilities of the digital technology innovations of companies. Heterogeneity results reveal that the facilitating function of DTPs in digital technology innovation of companies is strengthened with increased levels of digital infrastructure and digital ecosystems in cities and enhanced with increased levels of data utilization and degrees of intellectual property protection of companies. Mediating mechanism results indicate that facilitating same-industry technology spillover, enhancing cross-industry technology spillover, and boosting innovation breakthrough capability are the main mechanisms through which DTPs affect the digital technology innovation of companies. This study provides insights for policymakers on how to improve digital infrastructure, optimize digital ecosystems, protect data property rights, and support companies in strengthening their data capabilities to effectively enhance the role of DTPs in digital technology innovation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 6","pages":"Pages 1372-1396"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145384372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Demographic change will hit public debt sustainability in European Union countries 人口结构变化将打击欧盟国家的公共债务可持续性

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.004

Zsolt Darvas , Lennard Welslau , Jeromin Zettelmeyer

引用次数: 0

Labor productivity and the role of labor market deregulation: Are there limits? Evidence from BRICS 劳动生产率和劳动力市场放松管制的作用：有限制吗？来自金砖国家的证据

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.002

Oleg Mariev , Sophia V. Turkanova , Suleiman O. Mamman

{"title":"Labor productivity and the role of labor market deregulation: Are there limits? Evidence from BRICS","authors":"Oleg Mariev , Sophia V. Turkanova , Suleiman O. Mamman","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Labor market deregulation has been a contentious issue over time, with debates mainly focusing on its macroeconomic effects. To this end, this study examines the impact of labor deregulation on labor productivity in BRICS countries, premised on the endogenous growth model. To account for strong endogeneity bias, this study uses the bias-corrected method of moments estimators for annual data from 1991 to 2023. The main empirical findings reveal that labor productivity persists over time. Secondly, it was observed that deregulation has an asymmetric effect with initial deregulation enhancing productivity levels, but excessive deregulation leads to diminishing returns. Also, capital investment was observed to boosts productivity levels, while the effects of human capital development, migration flow, and total factor productivity are mixed and inconclusive. One of the policy implications of the study highlights the need for balanced deregulation to maximize productivity gains without adverse effects. More so, the study highlights the heterogeneity among BRICS countries, suggesting the need for collaborative efforts and tailored policies to enhance productivity in the long term.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 6","pages":"Pages 1264-1283"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145384383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

From policy to practice: What drives climate orientation in development finance flows? 从政策到实践：是什么推动了发展融资的气候导向？

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.008

Hardik Gupta , Raveendra Saradhi Vadlamudy

{"title":"From policy to practice: What drives climate orientation in development finance flows?","authors":"Hardik Gupta , Raveendra Saradhi Vadlamudy","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As climate considerations become integral to the global development agenda, it is essential to examine how they are incorporated into cross-border development finance architecture. This study investigates the determinants of climatic orientation in Official Development Finance (ODF) using a granular dataset of 108,580 financial flows to Southeast Asia from 2015 to 2022. Integrating transaction, recipient and donor-level attributes, a multilevel logistic regression model has been utilised to account for unobserved heterogeneity resulting from the cross-classified structure of the data. Our findings suggest that larger ODA flows structured as loans are more likely to be climate-oriented. Recipient climate vulnerability and emissions intensity are positively associated with climate orientation, while institutional capacity exhibits mixed effects. Donor characteristics such as emissions levels, fiscal space, and democracy scores show positive associations, while governance quality exhibits a negative relationship, a finding driven mainly by non-traditional donors with lower governance scores but higher climate finance shares. Robustness checks confirm the stability of the results across alternative specifications, subsamples, and model structures. The analysis contributes to the literature by examining emerging policy discourse in light of empirical evidence and theoretical expectations. The study reveals that the inclusion of climatic considerations in developmental goals is shaped by a complex array of factors, with emerging donors playing an increasingly central role in reshaping the landscape. The analysis advocates for the adoption of an integrated approach to climate and development objectives to enable more effective utilisation of available resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 6","pages":"Pages 1344-1371"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145384373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Oil dependency, political instability and the stock market: A perspective from the Middle East and Africa 石油依赖、政治不稳定和股市：来自中东和非洲的视角

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.009

Mohamed Abdelaziz Eissa , Hisham Al Refai , Georgios Chortareas

{"title":"Oil dependency, political instability and the stock market: A perspective from the Middle East and Africa","authors":"Mohamed Abdelaziz Eissa , Hisham Al Refai , Georgios Chortareas","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the time-varying effects of oil price shocks and geopolitical risk on the stock markets of six Middle Eastern and African countries—namely, Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Tunisia, and Turkey. Our analysis, which uses time-varying parameter vector autoregression and monthly data from 2002 to 2023, demonstrates the crucial role played by geopolitical risk and oil price shocks in shaping the stock returns of these countries. Their impact in the period under study is found to vary across countries according to their different economic structures, political conditions, and degrees of reliance on oil. Some countries, such as Egypt and Israel, are more affected by geopolitical events, whereas others, such as Saudi Arabia, are heavily influenced by oil price fluctuations. The diverse responses of the stock markets to these factors emphasizes the need to consider both geopolitical risk and oil price shocks when evaluating stock market performance. Our findings on the heterogeneous effects of oil prices and geopolitical risk across countries and regions can inform country-specific policy responses and investment strategies that are tailored to countries’ unique economic structures and political environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 6","pages":"Pages 1201-1221"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145384380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Market power and fossil fuel subsidy reforms: Who should lead the call for change? 市场力量和化石燃料补贴改革：谁应该带头呼吁变革？

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.07.007

Robin Argueyrolles

引用次数: 0

A framework for disrupting extremist recruitment in a developing country: Mapping pathways and prioritizing interventions 在发展中国家破坏极端分子招募的框架：绘制途径和优先干预措施

IF 3.1 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.005

Yousaf Ali , Amin Ullah Khan

{"title":"A framework for disrupting extremist recruitment in a developing country: Mapping pathways and prioritizing interventions","authors":"Yousaf Ali , Amin Ullah Khan","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rising extremism in the region proves to be a critical challenge for developing countries such as Pakistan. In such a scenario, extremism is deeply rooted in society, and to counter it, the country requires an accurate understanding of its driving factors, along with effective counter-extremism strategies. To achieve this, the research employs a novel integrated Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model i.e., DEMATEL-FUCOM-VIKOR framework to identify the root causes and prioritize strategic solutions. The study evaluates eight driving factors and reveals that economic despair, political agendas, and cultural discrimination are collectively responsible for the extremist influence in the country. Similarly, after evaluating countermeasures, family counseling and youth engagement programs emerge as the optimal strategies, depicting superior risk reduction and complementary actions such as countering kinship radicalization and socioeconomic triggers, along with addressing the governance voids and ideological recruitment. The study also recommends directing approximately 70 % of the government resources to scale counseling units and the establishment of youth hubs in the high-risk areas. It will also help to integrate vocational training with youth programs to counter excessive poverty. This novel application provides policymakers with an actionable blueprint for employing culturally congruent, resource-effective counter-extremism initiatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"47 6","pages":"Pages 1180-1200"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145384379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0