Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献_第6页

Socioeconomic and demographic determinants of financial inclusion in South Asia: Integrated policy for targeted groups of population 南亚金融包容性的社会经济和人口决定因素：针对目标人群的综合政策

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.002

Sumit Kumar, Kalandi Charan Pradhan

{"title":"Socioeconomic and demographic determinants of financial inclusion in South Asia: Integrated policy for targeted groups of population","authors":"Sumit Kumar, Kalandi Charan Pradhan","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper aims to analyze the individual’s socioeconomic and demographic determinants of financial inclusion and its barriers among for South Asian countries in the lens of existing financial inclusion policy, using World Bank Global Findex database for the period 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021. We use the Probit regression model to explore the main objective of this study. In addition, we also analyze the trend, pattern, and barriers of financial inclusion for the period 2011- 2021 to identify differences among south Asian countries. Our results reveal that Sri Lanka is the best performer in the inclusivity of financial products as well as removing barriers to financial inclusion in all four periods. While Pakistan and Afghanistan are the least financially included countries, also they failed to remove barriers to financial inclusion. Moreover, our empirical results suggest that individuals who are male, older, wealthier, and more educated are more likely to access financial services, with income and education exerting a higher influence. Further, age shows a non-linear (inverted U-shaped) relationship with financial inclusion indicators. Additionally, we found that individuals having a formal account are the most important indicators of financial inclusion. And the reasons for financial exclusion (i.e., not having an account) are mainly voluntary among South Asian individuals. In fact, it is found that policies like Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana for India and National Financial Inclusion Strategy across all South Asian countries play a significant role in accelerating financial inclusion and helping in removing its barriers with different magnitudes. Therefore, our finding stresses the importance of heterogeneous integrated policy measures for the targeted groups of the population, particularly the most vulnerable group among South Asian countries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 655-682"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140201592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The dynamics of redistribution, inequality and growth across China’s regions 中国各地区再分配、不平等与增长的动态变化

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.011

Xiaoliang Yang , Lucy Barros , Kent Matthews , David Meenagh

引用次数: 0

Should the South African Reserve Bank lower the inflation target band? Insights from the GDP-inflation nexus 南非储备银行是否应该降低通胀目标区间？国内生产总值与通货膨胀关系的启示

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.004

Eliphas Ndou , Nombulelo Gumata

{"title":"Should the South African Reserve Bank lower the inflation target band? Insights from the GDP-inflation nexus","authors":"Eliphas Ndou , Nombulelo Gumata","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Should the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) lower the inflation target (IT) band? Does lowering the IT band impact the relationship between GDP growth and inflation? This paper explores these questions considering the SARB Governor, Lesetja Kganyago statements that there is a need to lower the IT band from 3–6% to a point target of 3%. We estimate the VAR model to determine whether the passthrough of positive GDP growth shocks to inflation is nonlinear in South Africa. The inflation effects are delineated into bands (i) above 6% (ii) between 4.5% and 6% (iii) between 3% and 4.5% (iv) between 0% and 3% and (v) when there are no IT bands. Evidence reveals that the passthrough is elevated when inflation exceeds 6% and is lower when inflation is within the (i) 3 to 4.5% and (ii) 0 to 3% IT bands. The passthrough from positive GDP growth shocks is more than halved when inflation is less than 3%. The policy implication is that lowering the IT band from 3 to 6% to 0 to 3% will reduce the passthrough of GDP growth shocks to inflation. It allows expansionary monetary to have more real effects as prices are more rigid in the low inflation environment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 638-654"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016189382400019X/pdfft?md5=452b517ca443e3ca407c6861abb45fa5&pid=1-s2.0-S016189382400019X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139920990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Political favouritism and inefficient management: Policy-makers’ birth town bias in EU quality certifications 政治偏袒和低效管理：欧盟质量认证中政策制定者的出生小镇偏见

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.004

Giuliano Resce , Cristina Vaquero-Piñeiro

引用次数: 0

Does foreign currency borrowing make firms vulnerable? Experience of emerging India 外币借款会使企业变得脆弱吗？新兴印度的经验

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.003

Abhisek Sur , Amarendu Nandy , Partha Ray

{"title":"Does foreign currency borrowing make firms vulnerable? Experience of emerging India","authors":"Abhisek Sur , Amarendu Nandy , Partha Ray","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Asian Financial Crisis during the late 1990 s revealed the fault lines of foreign currency loans of corporates. It starkly demonstrated that a combination of semi-pegged exchange rates and unregulated foreign currency borrowing could expose corporates and, subsequently, the entire economy to heightened vulnerability. To mitigate these risks, implementing certain capital account restrictions emerged as a potential remedy. Against this backdrop, this paper investigates the changing contours of vulnerability arising from the rising foreign currency leverage of 818 non-financial corporates in India during 2004–2022. In particular, this paper examines the impact of exchange rate shocks and changes in certain key macroeconomic policy variables on the financial vulnerabilities of these firms. Our findings unequivocally indicate that during exchange rate depreciation, unhedged exposures significantly amplified the vulnerability of Indian firms. While our study centres on India, the overarching conclusions and insights derived from our analysis possess broader ramifications for emerging economies grappling with capital account restrictions. The policy implications of our research underscore the need to proactively strengthen the macroprudential toolkit to address the risks associated with foreign currency borrowing and ensure more robust risk management practices to prevent the buildup of systemic vulnerabilities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 530-551"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139516108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Aggregate demand and inflation response to monetary policy shocks in Tunisia 突尼斯总需求和通货膨胀对货币政策冲击的反应

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.009

Mohamed Ben Mimoun , Jamel Boukhatem , Asma Raies

{"title":"Aggregate demand and inflation response to monetary policy shocks in Tunisia","authors":"Mohamed Ben Mimoun , Jamel Boukhatem , Asma Raies","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>We investigate the response of aggregate demand (AD) components and inflation<span> to monetary policy (MP) shocks in the Tunisian context where studies on this issue are rare. By estimating SVAR models on historical data ending in 2021, we found that: i) The Tunisian Central Bank’s (TCB) efforts to control inflation through interest rate tightening end up significantly slowing down private investment and consumption, while inflation response is not enough to mitigate the recently exacerbated inflationary trend; ii) Such efforts are hampered, if not outweighed, by the “pass-through” effect associated with exchange-rate continued depreciation; iii) The interest rate is Granger-caused by the exchange rate rather than the inflation rate, suggesting that </span></span><em>de jure</em> and <em>de facto</em><span> objectives of the TCB are divergent; and iv) The continued exchange rate depreciation alone is not enough to address the structural trade deficit. In light of these findings, we suggest that i) The transition from a discretionary MP to a rule-based inflation-targeting MP and with a well-defined role for the exchange rate, would help TCB gain credibility and improve efficiency of its MP; and ii) Tunisian policymakers should also consider consolidating MP in achieving its price stabilization objective particularly through implementing “supply-side policy” actions aiming at promoting economic growth and addressing unsustainable fiscal and external imbalances.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 592-612"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139590067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Economic crisis and crime: Money under the mattress during financial destabilization 经济危机与犯罪：金融动荡时期床垫下的金钱

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.003

Eleni Kyrkopoulou , Alexandros Louka , Kristin Fabbe

引用次数: 0

Assessing credit risk sensitivity to climate and energy shocks: Towards a common minimum standards in line with the ECB climate agenda 评估信贷风险对气候和能源冲击的敏感性：根据欧洲中央银行气候议程制定共同最低标准

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.001

Stefano Di Virgilio , Ivan Faiella , Alessandro Mistretta , Simone Narizzano

{"title":"Assessing credit risk sensitivity to climate and energy shocks: Towards a common minimum standards in line with the ECB climate agenda","authors":"Stefano Di Virgilio , Ivan Faiella , Alessandro Mistretta , Simone Narizzano","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A disordered energy transition might impact borrowers’ ability to repay and service debt; this calls for methods for integrating climate into credit risk modelling. This integration is required not only for risk management, but also for adjusting credit ratings for collateral pledged in Eurosystem monetary policy operations. This study introduces an innovative methodology to evaluate Italian non-financial firms' exposure to climate policy risks, gauging the impact of climate policies on firm-level default probability (PD). By simulating a shock to energy expenditure originating from different levels of a carbon tax, we analyze the potential impact on firms’ PD. Our method offers a comprehensive understanding of the channels through which energy shocks propagate and their implications on firms’ vulnerability. Our findings show that the impact of carbon taxation on credit risk would be contained, raising the average PD by a range of 0.6–4.1 basis points according to the different levels of carbon tax. The effect is slightly larger for the Agriculture and Services sector, while there is no clear pattern relating to firm size.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 552-568"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140935743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Are immunization policies sustainable in the Indian context? Insights into wastage and inefficiencies 印度的免疫政策是否可持续？对浪费和低效的见解

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.002

Utkarsh Shivam , Anand Kumar , Samir K. Srivastava

{"title":"Are immunization policies sustainable in the Indian context? Insights into wastage and inefficiencies","authors":"Utkarsh Shivam , Anand Kumar , Samir K. Srivastava","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Immunization programs globally have played a pivotal role in reducing mortality rates. However, the effectiveness of these programs often falls short of the intended coverage targets, primarily due to challenges within the supply chain, storage facilities, and distribution processes. Notably, a substantial percentage of vaccine wastage has been observed in numerous countries, thereby imposing a significant financial burden on immunization initiatives, and presenting a formidable challenge to policymakers. This paper undertakes a comprehensive study of the financial dynamics inherent in an immunization program within the context of India. Employing a systems perspective, we scrutinize the intricate interactions among various cost factors. Through a five-year system dynamics simulation, we derive insights into the amplified financial constraints resulting from vaccine wastage and the inefficiencies associated with shared personnel. Furthermore, our analysis extends to evaluate the impact of an additional investment aimed at enhancing the quality of the cold chain infrastructure and health worker proficiency on the overall funds of the immunization program. This research contributes to a nuanced understanding of the financial intricacies of immunization programs, offering valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to optimize program efficiency and resource allocation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 569-591"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139764188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of the shadow economy on the direct-indirect tax mix: Can central banks’ independence mitigate the effect? 影子经济对直接-间接税组合的影响：中央银行的独立性能否减轻影响？

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.001

Ioannis Dokas , Minas Panagiotidis , Stephanos Papadamou , Eleftherios Spyromitros

引用次数: 0