{"title":"Socioeconomic and demographic determinants of financial inclusion in South Asia: Integrated policy for targeted groups of population","authors":"Sumit Kumar, Kalandi Charan Pradhan","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper aims to analyze the individual’s socioeconomic and demographic determinants of financial inclusion and its barriers among for South Asian countries in the lens of existing financial inclusion policy, using World Bank Global Findex database for the period 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021. We use the Probit regression model to explore the main objective of this study. In addition, we also analyze the trend, pattern, and barriers of financial inclusion for the period 2011- 2021 to identify differences among south Asian countries. Our results reveal that Sri Lanka is the best performer in the inclusivity of financial products as well as removing barriers to financial inclusion in all four periods. While Pakistan and Afghanistan are the least financially included countries, also they failed to remove barriers to financial inclusion. Moreover, our empirical results suggest that individuals who are male, older, wealthier, and more educated are more likely to access financial services, with income and education exerting a higher influence. Further, age shows a non-linear (inverted U-shaped) relationship with financial inclusion indicators. Additionally, we found that individuals having a formal account are the most important indicators of financial inclusion. And the reasons for financial exclusion (i.e., not having an account) are mainly voluntary among South Asian individuals. In fact, it is found that policies like Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana for India and National Financial Inclusion Strategy across all South Asian countries play a significant role in accelerating financial inclusion and helping in removing its barriers with different magnitudes. Therefore, our finding stresses the importance of heterogeneous integrated policy measures for the targeted groups of the population, particularly the most vulnerable group among South Asian countries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 655-682"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140201592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xiaoliang Yang , Lucy Barros , Kent Matthews , David Meenagh
{"title":"The dynamics of redistribution, inequality and growth across China’s regions","authors":"Xiaoliang Yang , Lucy Barros , Kent Matthews , David Meenagh","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>China’s experience has triggered debate over a trade-off between aggregate growth and regional equity. We develop a three-region model of China where local government decisions are driven by central government tax transfer instruments. These affect local TFP dynamics and regional inequality. We find regional asymmetry in how transfers are awarded. Transfer policies pursued since the 1994 tax-sharing reform prevented a 15% rise in regional inequality, at an 8% cost to aggregate GDP. Temporarily reducing local government non-tax fees on private firms in poorer regions lowers regional inequality permanently at no aggregate growth cost, as would imposing uniformity in central transfer rules.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 613-637"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893824000139/pdfft?md5=7714380bdfe8b4607ab7fd09e8391334&pid=1-s2.0-S0161893824000139-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139873231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Should the South African Reserve Bank lower the inflation target band? Insights from the GDP-inflation nexus","authors":"Eliphas Ndou , Nombulelo Gumata","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Should the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) lower the inflation target (IT) band? Does lowering the IT band impact the relationship between GDP growth and inflation? This paper explores these questions considering the SARB Governor, Lesetja Kganyago statements that there is a need to lower the IT band from 3–6% to a point target of 3%. We estimate the VAR model to determine whether the passthrough of positive GDP growth shocks to inflation is nonlinear in South Africa. The inflation effects are delineated into bands (i) above 6% (ii) between 4.5% and 6% (iii) between 3% and 4.5% (iv) between 0% and 3% and (v) when there are no IT bands. Evidence reveals that the passthrough is elevated when inflation exceeds 6% and is lower when inflation is within the (i) 3 to 4.5% and (ii) 0 to 3% IT bands. The passthrough from positive GDP growth shocks is more than halved when inflation is less than 3%. The policy implication is that lowering the IT band from 3 to 6% to 0 to 3% will reduce the passthrough of GDP growth shocks to inflation. It allows expansionary monetary to have more real effects as prices are more rigid in the low inflation environment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 638-654"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016189382400019X/pdfft?md5=452b517ca443e3ca407c6861abb45fa5&pid=1-s2.0-S016189382400019X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139920990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Political favouritism and inefficient management: Policy-makers’ birth town bias in EU quality certifications","authors":"Giuliano Resce , Cristina Vaquero-Piñeiro","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In the current era of EU-driven strategies for sustainable local development, the EU Commission has designated the geographical indication (GI) policy as a flagship initiative in 2024. The certification procedure has been simplified, with increased involvement from national and local authorities. This study explores the potential impact of reforms on GIs in Italy, focusing on whether the birthplaces of regional council members receive preferential acknowledgment. Analysing municipal-level data, we employ a Difference in Differences approach and machine learning for counterfactual analysis. Results indicate a higher likelihood of GIs for councillors' birth municipalities, particularly in areas with lower ex-ante institutional quality. These findings underscore the potential consequences of EU reform, warning against political favouritism and inefficient policy management.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 683-702"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893824000309/pdfft?md5=ac80a4e561b52e0cf68d89908c35b2d1&pid=1-s2.0-S0161893824000309-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140408152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does foreign currency borrowing make firms vulnerable? Experience of emerging India","authors":"Abhisek Sur , Amarendu Nandy , Partha Ray","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Asian Financial Crisis during the late 1990 s revealed the fault lines of foreign currency loans of corporates. It starkly demonstrated that a combination of semi-pegged exchange rates and unregulated foreign currency borrowing could expose corporates and, subsequently, the entire economy to heightened vulnerability. To mitigate these risks, implementing certain capital account restrictions emerged as a potential remedy. Against this backdrop, this paper investigates the changing contours of vulnerability arising from the rising foreign currency leverage of 818 non-financial corporates in India during 2004–2022. In particular, this paper examines the impact of exchange rate shocks and changes in certain key macroeconomic policy variables on the financial vulnerabilities of these firms. Our findings unequivocally indicate that during exchange rate depreciation, unhedged exposures significantly amplified the vulnerability of Indian firms. While our study centres on India, the overarching conclusions and insights derived from our analysis possess broader ramifications for emerging economies grappling with capital account restrictions. The policy implications of our research underscore the need to proactively strengthen the macroprudential toolkit to address the risks associated with foreign currency borrowing and ensure more robust risk management practices to prevent the buildup of systemic vulnerabilities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 530-551"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139516108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Aggregate demand and inflation response to monetary policy shocks in Tunisia","authors":"Mohamed Ben Mimoun , Jamel Boukhatem , Asma Raies","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>We investigate the response of aggregate demand (AD) components and inflation<span> to monetary policy (MP) shocks in the Tunisian context where studies on this issue are rare. By estimating SVAR models on historical data ending in 2021, we found that: i) The Tunisian Central Bank’s (TCB) efforts to control inflation through interest rate tightening end up significantly slowing down private investment and consumption, while inflation response is not enough to mitigate the recently exacerbated inflationary trend; ii) Such efforts are hampered, if not outweighed, by the “pass-through” effect associated with exchange-rate continued depreciation; iii) The interest rate is Granger-caused by the exchange rate rather than the inflation rate, suggesting that </span></span><em>de jure</em> and <em>de facto</em><span> objectives of the TCB are divergent; and iv) The continued exchange rate depreciation alone is not enough to address the structural trade deficit. In light of these findings, we suggest that i) The transition from a discretionary MP to a rule-based inflation-targeting MP and with a well-defined role for the exchange rate, would help TCB gain credibility and improve efficiency of its MP; and ii) Tunisian policymakers should also consider consolidating MP in achieving its price stabilization objective particularly through implementing “supply-side policy” actions aiming at promoting economic growth and addressing unsustainable fiscal and external imbalances.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 592-612"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139590067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic crisis and crime: Money under the mattress during financial destabilization","authors":"Eleni Kyrkopoulou , Alexandros Louka , Kristin Fabbe","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The paper investigates the effect of a (semi-) deposit run during a debt crisis on crime rates. The study focuses on Greece’s protracted debt crisis (2009–2018) and analyzes the response of crime to deposit outflows. It shows that deposit outflows corresponded to a significant increase in property crimes (thefts and burglaries), but not other types of offenses. The study provides useful policy insights for regulatory authorities tasked with monitoring and decreasing the criminogenic effects of financial destabilization</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 514-529"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139879555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Stefano Di Virgilio , Ivan Faiella , Alessandro Mistretta , Simone Narizzano
{"title":"Assessing credit risk sensitivity to climate and energy shocks: Towards a common minimum standards in line with the ECB climate agenda","authors":"Stefano Di Virgilio , Ivan Faiella , Alessandro Mistretta , Simone Narizzano","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A disordered energy transition might impact borrowers’ ability to repay and service debt; this calls for methods for integrating climate into credit risk modelling. This integration is required not only for risk management, but also for adjusting credit ratings for collateral pledged in Eurosystem monetary policy operations. This study introduces an innovative methodology to evaluate Italian non-financial firms' exposure to climate policy risks, gauging the impact of climate policies on firm-level default probability (PD). By simulating a shock to energy expenditure originating from different levels of a carbon tax, we analyze the potential impact on firms’ PD. Our method offers a comprehensive understanding of the channels through which energy shocks propagate and their implications on firms’ vulnerability. Our findings show that the impact of carbon taxation on credit risk would be contained, raising the average PD by a range of 0.6–4.1 basis points according to the different levels of carbon tax. The effect is slightly larger for the Agriculture and Services sector, while there is no clear pattern relating to firm size.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 552-568"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140935743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Utkarsh Shivam , Anand Kumar , Samir K. Srivastava
{"title":"Are immunization policies sustainable in the Indian context? Insights into wastage and inefficiencies","authors":"Utkarsh Shivam , Anand Kumar , Samir K. Srivastava","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Immunization programs globally have played a pivotal role in reducing mortality rates. However, the effectiveness of these programs often falls short of the intended coverage targets, primarily due to challenges within the supply chain, storage facilities, and distribution processes. Notably, a substantial percentage of vaccine wastage has been observed in numerous countries, thereby imposing a significant financial burden on immunization initiatives, and presenting a formidable challenge to policymakers. This paper undertakes a comprehensive study of the financial dynamics inherent in an immunization program within the context of India. Employing a systems perspective, we scrutinize the intricate interactions among various cost factors. Through a five-year system dynamics simulation, we derive insights into the amplified financial constraints resulting from vaccine wastage and the inefficiencies associated with shared personnel. Furthermore, our analysis extends to evaluate the impact of an additional investment aimed at enhancing the quality of the cold chain infrastructure and health worker proficiency on the overall funds of the immunization program. This research contributes to a nuanced understanding of the financial intricacies of immunization programs, offering valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to optimize program efficiency and resource allocation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 569-591"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139764188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of the shadow economy on the direct-indirect tax mix: Can central banks’ independence mitigate the effect?","authors":"Ioannis Dokas , Minas Panagiotidis , Stephanos Papadamou , Eleftherios Spyromitros","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The recent financial crisis caused by corruption and opacity has led us to examine how the informal economy and other factors affect tax revenues using a three-pillar theoretical analysis. Empirical research has not thoroughly explored the shadow economy's impact on direct and indirect taxes, tax revenues, and the central bank's independence from the shadow economy and tax collection. This paper used 2010–2018 data from 129 countries. The shadow economy and tax revenues had a substantial negative relationship. The shadow economy also changed the fiscal authorities' policy mix by reducing direct taxes and increasing indirect taxes. Finally, the central bank's independence mitigated the shadow economy's negative effects on tax revenues.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 475-493"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140125927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}