Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献_第7页

Recent changes in the structure of U.S. imports from China implications for the future 美国从中国进口产品结构的最新变化对未来的影响 *

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.004

Andrew R. Blair

引用次数: 0

US international trade policy: Scenarios of protectionism and trade wars 美国国际贸易政策：保护主义和贸易战的情景

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010

Sherman Robinson , Karen Thierfelder

{"title":"US international trade policy: Scenarios of protectionism and trade wars","authors":"Sherman Robinson , Karen Thierfelder","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>US international trade<span><span> policy under both the Trump and Biden administrations has been increasingly protectionist. This paper considers two policy scenarios under active discussion: (1) an across-the-board increase in all US tariffs by 10 percentage points, and (2) a severe escalation of the US trade war with China. The scenarios are analyzed using a multi-country computable general equilibrium<span> (CGE) simulation model of the global economy. Trade wars or policy regimes of widespread protection will increase tariffs in many sectors simultaneously and include both final goods and intermediate inputs. The impacts are complex, with a web of direct and indirect forces coming into play across domestic and international markets. The global </span></span>CGE model captures these mechanisms, including both short and long-run effects, with and without retaliation by partner countries. In a world economy where the US accounts for only 10 % of global trade and potentially rival </span></span>trade bloc have emerged in Europe and E&SE Asia, the US is no longer hegemonic in global markets. We find that across-the-board tariffs do not protect manufacturing jobs because the cost of imported intermediate goods increases, raising costs in manufacturing production. The US trade war with China leads to a dramatic fall in bilateral trade. Other countries expand their trade to China and the US with the exception of closely linked partners (e.g. Canada and Mexico and all countries in E&SE Asia). We find that the world economy can adjust to US trade wars, diverting trade around the US.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 4","pages":"Pages 723-739"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141698867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fiscal revenue mobilization and digitally traded products: Taxing at the border or behind it? 财政收入动员与数字贸易产品：在边境征税还是在边境后征税？

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.04.001

引用次数: 0

Relationship between trade and growth for developing countries at different levels of income 不同收入水平发展中国家的贸易与增长之间的关系

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.009

Dominick Salvatore , Janhavi Shankar Tripathi

引用次数: 0

How to get monetary policy back on track 如何让货币政策重回正轨

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.008

引用次数: 0

The economic determinants of world disorder events: An empirical analysis 世界混乱事件的经济决定因素：实证分析

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.007

引用次数: 0

Revisiting the effects of exchange and capital restrictions on trade 重新审视外汇和资本限制对贸易的影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.013

引用次数: 0

Globalization and growth in a bipolar world 两极世界中的全球化与增长

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.006

Barry Eichengreen

引用次数: 0

Trade and growth and the likely output of GDP in 2025 贸易与增长以及 2025 年国内生产总值的可能产出

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.008

Fred Campano, Dominick Salvatore

引用次数: 0

Socioeconomic and demographic determinants of financial inclusion in South Asia: Integrated policy for targeted groups of population 南亚金融包容性的社会经济和人口决定因素：针对目标人群的综合政策

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.002

Sumit Kumar, Kalandi Charan Pradhan

{"title":"Socioeconomic and demographic determinants of financial inclusion in South Asia: Integrated policy for targeted groups of population","authors":"Sumit Kumar, Kalandi Charan Pradhan","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper aims to analyze the individual’s socioeconomic and demographic determinants of financial inclusion and its barriers among for South Asian countries in the lens of existing financial inclusion policy, using World Bank Global Findex database for the period 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021. We use the Probit regression model to explore the main objective of this study. In addition, we also analyze the trend, pattern, and barriers of financial inclusion for the period 2011- 2021 to identify differences among south Asian countries. Our results reveal that Sri Lanka is the best performer in the inclusivity of financial products as well as removing barriers to financial inclusion in all four periods. While Pakistan and Afghanistan are the least financially included countries, also they failed to remove barriers to financial inclusion. Moreover, our empirical results suggest that individuals who are male, older, wealthier, and more educated are more likely to access financial services, with income and education exerting a higher influence. Further, age shows a non-linear (inverted U-shaped) relationship with financial inclusion indicators. Additionally, we found that individuals having a formal account are the most important indicators of financial inclusion. And the reasons for financial exclusion (i.e., not having an account) are mainly voluntary among South Asian individuals. In fact, it is found that policies like Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana for India and National Financial Inclusion Strategy across all South Asian countries play a significant role in accelerating financial inclusion and helping in removing its barriers with different magnitudes. Therefore, our finding stresses the importance of heterogeneous integrated policy measures for the targeted groups of the population, particularly the most vulnerable group among South Asian countries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 3","pages":"Pages 655-682"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140201592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0