Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献_第7页

Social expenditure composition, inequality and growth in the OECD: Labour market policies are most effective 经合组织的社会支出构成、不平等和增长：劳动力市场政策最为有效

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.001

Pedro Bação, Joshua Duarte, Marta Simões

{"title":"Social expenditure composition, inequality and growth in the OECD: Labour market policies are most effective","authors":"Pedro Bação, Joshua Duarte, Marta Simões","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The literature on public social expenditure envisages a role for the composition of public social expenditure in the design of policies to reduce inequality and promote economic growth. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence on which to ground social policy decisions. This study contributes to filling this gap by investigating the dynamic interdependencies between nine different categories of social spending, inequality and growth in 36 OECD countries over the period 1995–2017. According to the results of our work, based on a PVAR model, achieving a decrease in inequality without decreasing output growth is possible, requiring a change in the composition of social policy that gives more weight to spending on old age and survivors’ pensions, incapacity and family benefits, and active labour market policies, the latter having also a positive impact on growth. On the contrary, social expenditure on housing, as it has been conducted, appears to harm growth and enhance inequality.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 1","pages":"Pages 75-89"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893824000012/pdfft?md5=ada415a2b513c18e761dfe25c31b79f9&pid=1-s2.0-S0161893824000012-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139516283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Zombie-lending during the pandemic in India: Did the Central Bank reduce credit misallocation concerns of forbearance? 印度大流行病期间的 "僵尸贷款"：中央银行是否减少了对宽容的信贷错配担忧？

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.010

Prasenjit Chakrabarti, Jasmeet Kaur

{"title":"Zombie-lending during the pandemic in India: Did the Central Bank reduce credit misallocation concerns of forbearance?","authors":"Prasenjit Chakrabarti, Jasmeet Kaur","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) undertook a policy mix approach to maintain financial stability in the Indian banking system. RBI recapitalized the banks and infused liquidity through accommodative monetary policies<span> combined with temporary forbearance policies of restructuring loans to boost credit growth and support economic expansion. With a focus on zombie lending, we examine the effectiveness of this policy mix in bank lending channels during the pandemic. We find banks have extended credit growth to the non-financial listed firms. Broadly, we obtain little evidence of credit misallocation to these firms through zombie lending. Subsequently, we observe a decline in zombie lending to manufacturing and small and medium enterprises. However, our result shows a significant increase in zombie lending towards high rent-seeking </span></span>industries. We witness that zombie lending does not crowd out healthy lending through the bank and industry congestion channels. The results of our study have significant implications for policymakers. Specifically, our findings suggest that accommodative monetary policy reduces credit misallocation concerns of forbearance. In the absence of monetary policy support, forbearance alone may exacerbate adverse effects.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 1","pages":"Pages 153-170"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139376390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The threshold effect of institutional quality on sovereign debt and economic stability 机构质量对主权债务和经济稳定的门槛效应

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.001

Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury , Ehsanur Rauf Prince , Mohammad Shoyeb , Mohammad Abdullah

{"title":"The threshold effect of institutional quality on sovereign debt and economic stability","authors":"Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury , Ehsanur Rauf Prince , Mohammad Shoyeb , Mohammad Abdullah","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This study examines the threshold effect of institutional quality on the sovereign debt-macroeconomic stability nexus using panel data from 133 countries covering the period from 2002 to 2020. We measure macroeconomic stability using </span>principal component analysis of budget deficit, annual inflation rate, official exchange rate, real interest rate, and unemployment rate. The dynamic GMM result shows that institutional quality has a positive effect on macroeconomic stability, while government debt has a negative effect. However, the interaction between institutional quality and government debt changes the direction of the effect of debt on macroeconomic stability. Moreover, in dynamic panel threshold regression, we document the evidence of the threshold effect of institutional quality on sovereign debt-macroeconomic stability nexus and suggest that before (after) the threshold level of institutional quality, there is a negative (positive) impact of debt on macroeconomic stability. Our result suggest that better institutions can use debt more efficiently and productively to enhance economic performance. The findings of this study have significant implications for policymakers in formulating policies to promote macroeconomic stability.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 1","pages":"Pages 39-59"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138560875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The effectiveness of fiscal policy in Brazil through the MIDAS Lens 从MIDAS视角看巴西财政政策的有效性

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.004

Renan Santos Alves , Andreza A. Palma

{"title":"The effectiveness of fiscal policy in Brazil through the MIDAS Lens","authors":"Renan Santos Alves , Andreza A. Palma","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper aims to examine the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in Brazil between 1999 and 2017. For this purpose, a novel methodology is applied, using a Vector Autoregressive with Mixed Frequency (MIDAS-VAR) model, proposed by Ghysels (2016), which allows for the estimation of the spending multiplier by measuring the impact of high-frequency data at low-frequency and vice versa. The impact of various types of spending on the gross domestic product (GDP) is analyzed, including primary expenditure, personnel, social benefits, subsidies, investment, and costing, while the central government’s primary revenue is used as the revenue variable. The expenditure and tax revenue are the high-frequency variables (monthly observations), whereas GDP is a low-frequency series (quarterly). The estimated fiscal multipliers for primary spending are less than one, suggesting no significant Keynesian effect on output, with particular attention given to the investment multiplier, which is estimated to be close to zero. Our results suggest that the frequency of data matters, and government expenditure has no significant impact on real GDP growth in Brazil. Therefore, the ability of Brazilian fiscal policy to influence economic growth may be limited.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 1","pages":"Pages 113-128"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138530682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Can policy achieve environmental fairness and environmental improvement? Evidence from the Xin’an River project in China 政策能否实现环境公平和环境改善？中国新安江项目的证据

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.008

Hong-Zhen Zhang , Ling-Yun He , ZhongXiang Zhang

{"title":"Can policy achieve environmental fairness and environmental improvement? Evidence from the Xin’an River project in China","authors":"Hong-Zhen Zhang , Ling-Yun He , ZhongXiang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In a river basin across regions, is environmental improvement in downstream areas based on actions that negatively impact economic development and social welfare in upstream areas? This paper takes the pilot<span> of Transverse Eco-compensation Mechanism (TECM) in Xin'an River of China as a quasi-natural experiment and uses the difference-in-differences strategy to estimate the impact of TECM on environmental inequality. We find that the government’s environmental policy may lead to more environmental inequality，which is often overlooked. Our results show that the pilot of TECM depresses the upstream economy, reduces upstream resident income, especially rural residents, and widens the regional income gap between the upstream and downstream. Heterogeneous tests confirm our findings. Our mechanism test shows that the industries’ shutting down and relocation are the main driving forces for the regional environmental inequality in the short term. Therefore, in implementing future TECM, the upstream government needs to pay attention to the economic slowdown and the subsequent unemployment and resident welfare loss. The central and downstream governments should help the upstream regions upgrade the industrial structure, rather than just pay compensation funds, thereby reducing the resulting environmental inequality. Our findings have important policy implications for the treatment of trans-regional river pollution.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 1","pages":"Pages 212-234"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139292722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does corruption starve Africa? The mitigating effect of political distribution of power 腐败会饿死非洲吗？政治权力分配的缓解效应

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.003

Henri Njangang , Simplice A. Asongu , Eric Mouchili

{"title":"Does corruption starve Africa? The mitigating effect of political distribution of power","authors":"Henri Njangang , Simplice A. Asongu , Eric Mouchili","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Corruption remains a major challenge to sustainable economic growth, good governance, peace, and stability in both developed and developing countries. However, in developing countries, and particularly in Africa, hunger is another big challenge to inclusive economic development. To date, no empirical study has examined the effects of different types of corruption on hunger. Using three types of corruption (executive, legislative, and judicial corruption dynamics) and a panel of 45 African countries, this study contributes to the literature on the effects of corruption by examining, as a first attempt, the impact of types of corruption on hunger. We address the weak time-variance of our main regressors by using the most recent sequential linear panel dynamic estimator. The results show that countries with higher levels of executive, legislative, and judicial corruption are associated with a higher level of hunger. Moreover, the results show that executive corruption is the most disastrous for hunger in Africa, followed by legislative corruption. Our results remain valid even after using alternative measures of the key variables (hunger and corruption) and after controlling for the dynamic endogeneity using the generalized method of moments. Further analysis provides strong evidence that the political distribution of power across social groups mitigates the effect of corruption on hunger.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 1","pages":"Pages 171-197"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893823001357/pdfft?md5=8ca0d83e6b57e544acdb906532b2ae68&pid=1-s2.0-S0161893823001357-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139456810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Productivity convergence in international trade: The role of industrial-based policies 国际贸易中的生产力趋同：基于产业的政策的作用

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.002

Saban Nazlioglu , İbrahim Huseyni , Ahmet Tunc , James E. Payne

引用次数: 0

Will reducing the burden of extracurricular tutoring raise fertility willingness in China? Five policy suggestions 减轻课外辅导负担会提高中国的生育意愿吗?五项政策建议

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.001

Jing Zhou , Huashuai Chen

引用次数: 0

The asymmetric impact of real exchange rate misalignment on growth dynamics in Turkey 实际汇率失调对土耳其经济增长动态的不对称影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.003

Waqar Khalid , Irfan Civcir , Hüseyin Özdeşer , Javed Iqbal

引用次数: 0

Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries: Undue optimism at a cost 欧盟国家政府债务预测错误与净支出规则:过度乐观是有代价的

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.001

David Cronin , Kieran McQuinn

{"title":"Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries: Undue optimism at a cost","authors":"David Cronin , Kieran McQuinn","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Against a backdrop of debt ratio targets being central to recent proposed changes to the EU fiscal rules, we examine errors in official forecasts of the General Government debt ratios and their determinants in 26 member states from 2012 to 2019 when the “six pack” rules applied. We find debt ratio outturns exceeding projected values with forecast errors increasing over a four-year horizon. Larger errors arise where the initial debt ratio exceeds the Maastricht Treaty threshold of 60 per cent. In modelling the forecast errors of the debt ratio, we find that most of the variation is explained by forecast errors in the output growth rate and in the structural budget balance, as well as previous errors in projecting the debt ratio. During the sample period, member states who had not met their medium-term objective of a balanced structural budget were expected to adhere to a net expenditure rule. For countries subject to this requirement, we find undue optimism arising in forecasting the deficit ratio, a determinant of the debt ratio. The implications of these findings for EU policymakers and, in particular, forecasters are considered.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"45 6","pages":"Pages 1113-1131"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135605733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0