Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献_第7页

The debt-growth nexus and debt sustainability in Nigeria: Are there reasons to be concerned? 尼日利亚的债务-增长关系和债务可持续性：有理由担忧吗？

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.004

Olajide O. Oyadeyi , Olayode W. Agboola , Solomon O. Okunade , Tolulope T. Osinubi

{"title":"The debt-growth nexus and debt sustainability in Nigeria: Are there reasons to be concerned?","authors":"Olajide O. Oyadeyi , Olayode W. Agboola , Solomon O. Okunade , Tolulope T. Osinubi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examined the threshold effect of debt on economic growth in Nigeria, with a view to investigating debt sustainability levels in the country. The analysis included yearly data from 1981 to 2021. To achieve its objectives, the study used two-regime threshold ARDL regression approaches. Findings reveal that the optimal thresholds for total debt as a ratio of GDP (TDB/GDP), GNI (TDB/GNI), total revenue (TDB/REV), and exports of goods and services (TDB/EXP) are 46.1%, 54.5%, 355.3%, and 24.9%, respectively. Findings also indicate that debt ratios below the threshold levels have a significant positive impact on economic growth. This is true for all the debt ratios, except debt-to-export ratio. However, debt ratios above the threshold levels have a negative and significant effect on Nigeria’s economic growth. Furthermore, findings reveal that only the level of domestic debt is sustainable over the long and short run, whereas external debt and total debt are only sustainable over the long run. When expressed as ratios of GDP and GNI, evidence indicates that Nigeria’s debt is not sustainable by all the five measures of debt adopted in the study, both in the short run and in the long run while total debt to revenue ratio is only sustainable only in the long run. The paper adequately explores the implications of these findings and offers relevant policy recommendations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135411811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

China's foreign direct investments: Do they promote domestic green technology? 中国的对外直接投资：它们促进了国内绿色技术吗？

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.08.002

Xiang Cai , Xiaohui Zhao , Cuiting Jiang , Liguo Zhang

引用次数: 0

Is it worth subsidising the cultural sector? New insights from Italian theatre companies 为文化部门提供补贴是否值得?意大利戏剧公司的新见解

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.006

Concetta Castiglione , Davide Infante , Marta Zieba

{"title":"Is it worth subsidising the cultural sector? New insights from Italian theatre companies","authors":"Concetta Castiglione , Davide Infante , Marta Zieba","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study the impact of public subsidies on the efficiency of performing arts through an empirical analysis of Italian theatres (including opera houses, permanent theatres, and theatre production companies), using an output-oriented approach. Firstly, we discuss the previous works on efficiency and its determinants in the presence of public subsidies. Secondly, the stochastic frontier analysis true random-effects model and the IV GMM second stage regressions are used together with a procedure to measure the marginal effects of subsidies. Our findings suggest that the impact of public funds on technical efficiency of the Italian theatrical firms is positive and significant. The elasticity of public subsidy on efficiency is smaller than one. However, the return on subsidies amounts to 87 on average. These returns vary between Italian performing arts sub-sectors, and are very high for theatre production companies, low for permanent theatres, and very low for opera houses. We also find that the technological progress is negative for the theatrical Italian sector and it leads to the decline in total factor productivity over time, providing empirical support to the presence of Baumol’s disease in the sector. Overall, since Italian theatres technical efficiency could be increased at least by 25–27%, policy makers could work on public incentives in such a way as to avoid that, due to asymmetric information between government and theatrical firms, subsidies are provided (and criticised) indiscriminately.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138530678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Growth gains from offshore outsourcing 离岸外包带来的增长收益

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.009

Anwesha Basu , Sugata Marjit , C. Veeramani

引用次数: 0

Social expenditure composition, inequality and growth in the OECD: Labour market policies are most effective 经合组织的社会支出构成、不平等和增长：劳动力市场政策最为有效

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.001

Pedro Bação, Joshua Duarte, Marta Simões

{"title":"Social expenditure composition, inequality and growth in the OECD: Labour market policies are most effective","authors":"Pedro Bação, Joshua Duarte, Marta Simões","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The literature on public social expenditure envisages a role for the composition of public social expenditure in the design of policies to reduce inequality and promote economic growth. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence on which to ground social policy decisions. This study contributes to filling this gap by investigating the dynamic interdependencies between nine different categories of social spending, inequality and growth in 36 OECD countries over the period 1995–2017. According to the results of our work, based on a PVAR model, achieving a decrease in inequality without decreasing output growth is possible, requiring a change in the composition of social policy that gives more weight to spending on old age and survivors’ pensions, incapacity and family benefits, and active labour market policies, the latter having also a positive impact on growth. On the contrary, social expenditure on housing, as it has been conducted, appears to harm growth and enhance inequality.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893824000012/pdfft?md5=ada415a2b513c18e761dfe25c31b79f9&pid=1-s2.0-S0161893824000012-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139516283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Zombie-lending during the pandemic in India: Did the Central Bank reduce credit misallocation concerns of forbearance? 印度大流行病期间的 "僵尸贷款"：中央银行是否减少了对宽容的信贷错配担忧？

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.010

Prasenjit Chakrabarti, Jasmeet Kaur

{"title":"Zombie-lending during the pandemic in India: Did the Central Bank reduce credit misallocation concerns of forbearance?","authors":"Prasenjit Chakrabarti, Jasmeet Kaur","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) undertook a policy mix approach to maintain financial stability in the Indian banking system. RBI recapitalized the banks and infused liquidity through accommodative monetary policies<span> combined with temporary forbearance policies of restructuring loans to boost credit growth and support economic expansion. With a focus on zombie lending, we examine the effectiveness of this policy mix in bank lending channels during the pandemic. We find banks have extended credit growth to the non-financial listed firms. Broadly, we obtain little evidence of credit misallocation to these firms through zombie lending. Subsequently, we observe a decline in zombie lending to manufacturing and small and medium enterprises. However, our result shows a significant increase in zombie lending towards high rent-seeking </span></span>industries. We witness that zombie lending does not crowd out healthy lending through the bank and industry congestion channels. The results of our study have significant implications for policymakers. Specifically, our findings suggest that accommodative monetary policy reduces credit misallocation concerns of forbearance. In the absence of monetary policy support, forbearance alone may exacerbate adverse effects.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139376390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The threshold effect of institutional quality on sovereign debt and economic stability 机构质量对主权债务和经济稳定的门槛效应

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.001

Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury , Ehsanur Rauf Prince , Mohammad Shoyeb , Mohammad Abdullah

{"title":"The threshold effect of institutional quality on sovereign debt and economic stability","authors":"Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury , Ehsanur Rauf Prince , Mohammad Shoyeb , Mohammad Abdullah","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This study examines the threshold effect of institutional quality on the sovereign debt-macroeconomic stability nexus using panel data from 133 countries covering the period from 2002 to 2020. We measure macroeconomic stability using </span>principal component analysis of budget deficit, annual inflation rate, official exchange rate, real interest rate, and unemployment rate. The dynamic GMM result shows that institutional quality has a positive effect on macroeconomic stability, while government debt has a negative effect. However, the interaction between institutional quality and government debt changes the direction of the effect of debt on macroeconomic stability. Moreover, in dynamic panel threshold regression, we document the evidence of the threshold effect of institutional quality on sovereign debt-macroeconomic stability nexus and suggest that before (after) the threshold level of institutional quality, there is a negative (positive) impact of debt on macroeconomic stability. Our result suggest that better institutions can use debt more efficiently and productively to enhance economic performance. The findings of this study have significant implications for policymakers in formulating policies to promote macroeconomic stability.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138560875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The effectiveness of fiscal policy in Brazil through the MIDAS Lens 从MIDAS视角看巴西财政政策的有效性

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.004

Renan Santos Alves , Andreza A. Palma

{"title":"The effectiveness of fiscal policy in Brazil through the MIDAS Lens","authors":"Renan Santos Alves , Andreza A. Palma","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper aims to examine the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in Brazil between 1999 and 2017. For this purpose, a novel methodology is applied, using a Vector Autoregressive with Mixed Frequency (MIDAS-VAR) model, proposed by Ghysels (2016), which allows for the estimation of the spending multiplier by measuring the impact of high-frequency data at low-frequency and vice versa. The impact of various types of spending on the gross domestic product (GDP) is analyzed, including primary expenditure, personnel, social benefits, subsidies, investment, and costing, while the central government’s primary revenue is used as the revenue variable. The expenditure and tax revenue are the high-frequency variables (monthly observations), whereas GDP is a low-frequency series (quarterly). The estimated fiscal multipliers for primary spending are less than one, suggesting no significant Keynesian effect on output, with particular attention given to the investment multiplier, which is estimated to be close to zero. Our results suggest that the frequency of data matters, and government expenditure has no significant impact on real GDP growth in Brazil. Therefore, the ability of Brazilian fiscal policy to influence economic growth may be limited.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138530682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Can policy achieve environmental fairness and environmental improvement? Evidence from the Xin’an River project in China 政策能否实现环境公平和环境改善？中国新安江项目的证据

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.008

Hong-Zhen Zhang , Ling-Yun He , ZhongXiang Zhang

{"title":"Can policy achieve environmental fairness and environmental improvement? Evidence from the Xin’an River project in China","authors":"Hong-Zhen Zhang , Ling-Yun He , ZhongXiang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In a river basin across regions, is environmental improvement in downstream areas based on actions that negatively impact economic development and social welfare in upstream areas? This paper takes the pilot<span> of Transverse Eco-compensation Mechanism (TECM) in Xin'an River of China as a quasi-natural experiment and uses the difference-in-differences strategy to estimate the impact of TECM on environmental inequality. We find that the government’s environmental policy may lead to more environmental inequality，which is often overlooked. Our results show that the pilot of TECM depresses the upstream economy, reduces upstream resident income, especially rural residents, and widens the regional income gap between the upstream and downstream. Heterogeneous tests confirm our findings. Our mechanism test shows that the industries’ shutting down and relocation are the main driving forces for the regional environmental inequality in the short term. Therefore, in implementing future TECM, the upstream government needs to pay attention to the economic slowdown and the subsequent unemployment and resident welfare loss. The central and downstream governments should help the upstream regions upgrade the industrial structure, rather than just pay compensation funds, thereby reducing the resulting environmental inequality. Our findings have important policy implications for the treatment of trans-regional river pollution.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139292722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Productivity convergence in international trade: The role of industrial-based policies 国际贸易中的生产力趋同：基于产业的政策的作用

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.002

Saban Nazlioglu , İbrahim Huseyni , Ahmet Tunc , James E. Payne

引用次数: 0