US international trade policy: Scenarios of protectionism and trade wars

IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
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Abstract

US international trade policy under both the Trump and Biden administrations has been increasingly protectionist. This paper considers two policy scenarios under active discussion: (1) an across-the-board increase in all US tariffs by 10 percentage points, and (2) a severe escalation of the US trade war with China. The scenarios are analyzed using a multi-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation model of the global economy. Trade wars or policy regimes of widespread protection will increase tariffs in many sectors simultaneously and include both final goods and intermediate inputs. The impacts are complex, with a web of direct and indirect forces coming into play across domestic and international markets. The global CGE model captures these mechanisms, including both short and long-run effects, with and without retaliation by partner countries. In a world economy where the US accounts for only 10 % of global trade and potentially rival trade bloc have emerged in Europe and E&SE Asia, the US is no longer hegemonic in global markets. We find that across-the-board tariffs do not protect manufacturing jobs because the cost of imported intermediate goods increases, raising costs in manufacturing production. The US trade war with China leads to a dramatic fall in bilateral trade. Other countries expand their trade to China and the US with the exception of closely linked partners (e.g. Canada and Mexico and all countries in E&SE Asia). We find that the world economy can adjust to US trade wars, diverting trade around the US.

美国国际贸易政策:保护主义和贸易战的情景
在特朗普和拜登政府执政期间,美国的国际贸易政策日益倾向于保护主义。本文考虑了两种正在积极讨论的政策情景:(1) 美国全面提高所有关税 10 个百分点;(2) 美国与中国的贸易战严重升级。本文使用全球经济多国可计算一般均衡(CGE)模拟模型对这两种情景进行了分析。贸易战或广泛保护的政策制度将同时增加许多部门的关税,包括最终产品和中间投入品。其影响是复杂的,在国内和国际市场上会产生一系列直接和间接的影响。全球 CGE 模型捕捉到了这些机制,包括短期和长期影响,以及伙伴国的报复和不报复。在世界经济中,美国仅占全球贸易的 10%,而欧洲和东南亚已经出现了潜在的竞争对手贸易集团,因此美国不再是全球市场的霸主。我们发现,全面关税并不能保护制造业的就业岗位,因为进口中间产品的成本会增加,从而提高制造业的生产成本。美国与中国的贸易战导致双边贸易急剧下降。其他国家扩大了对中国和美国的贸易,只有联系紧密的伙伴(如加拿大和墨西哥以及所有东亚和东南亚国家)除外。我们发现,世界经济可以适应美国的贸易战,将贸易转向美国周边地区。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
11.40%
发文量
76
期刊介绍: The Journal of Policy Modeling is published by Elsevier for the Society for Policy Modeling to provide a forum for analysis and debate concerning international policy issues. The journal addresses questions of critical import to the world community as a whole, and it focuses upon the economic, social, and political interdependencies between national and regional systems. This implies concern with international policies for the promotion of a better life for all human beings and, therefore, concentrates on improved methodological underpinnings for dealing with these problems.
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