Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献_第8页

Does corruption starve Africa? The mitigating effect of political distribution of power 腐败会饿死非洲吗？政治权力分配的缓解效应

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.003

Henri Njangang , Simplice A. Asongu , Eric Mouchili

{"title":"Does corruption starve Africa? The mitigating effect of political distribution of power","authors":"Henri Njangang , Simplice A. Asongu , Eric Mouchili","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Corruption remains a major challenge to sustainable economic growth, good governance, peace, and stability in both developed and developing countries. However, in developing countries, and particularly in Africa, hunger is another big challenge to inclusive economic development. To date, no empirical study has examined the effects of different types of corruption on hunger. Using three types of corruption (executive, legislative, and judicial corruption dynamics) and a panel of 45 African countries, this study contributes to the literature on the effects of corruption by examining, as a first attempt, the impact of types of corruption on hunger. We address the weak time-variance of our main regressors by using the most recent sequential linear panel dynamic estimator. The results show that countries with higher levels of executive, legislative, and judicial corruption are associated with a higher level of hunger. Moreover, the results show that executive corruption is the most disastrous for hunger in Africa, followed by legislative corruption. Our results remain valid even after using alternative measures of the key variables (hunger and corruption) and after controlling for the dynamic endogeneity using the generalized method of moments. Further analysis provides strong evidence that the political distribution of power across social groups mitigates the effect of corruption on hunger.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893823001357/pdfft?md5=8ca0d83e6b57e544acdb906532b2ae68&pid=1-s2.0-S0161893823001357-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139456810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The asymmetric impact of real exchange rate misalignment on growth dynamics in Turkey 实际汇率失调对土耳其经济增长动态的不对称影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.003

Waqar Khalid , Irfan Civcir , Hüseyin Özdeşer , Javed Iqbal

引用次数: 0

Will reducing the burden of extracurricular tutoring raise fertility willingness in China? Five policy suggestions 减轻课外辅导负担会提高中国的生育意愿吗?五项政策建议

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.001

Jing Zhou , Huashuai Chen

引用次数: 0

Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries: Undue optimism at a cost 欧盟国家政府债务预测错误与净支出规则:过度乐观是有代价的

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.001

David Cronin , Kieran McQuinn

{"title":"Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries: Undue optimism at a cost","authors":"David Cronin , Kieran McQuinn","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Against a backdrop of debt ratio targets being central to recent proposed changes to the EU fiscal rules, we examine errors in official forecasts of the General Government debt ratios and their determinants in 26 member states from 2012 to 2019 when the “six pack” rules applied. We find debt ratio outturns exceeding projected values with forecast errors increasing over a four-year horizon. Larger errors arise where the initial debt ratio exceeds the Maastricht Treaty threshold of 60 per cent. In modelling the forecast errors of the debt ratio, we find that most of the variation is explained by forecast errors in the output growth rate and in the structural budget balance, as well as previous errors in projecting the debt ratio. During the sample period, member states who had not met their medium-term objective of a balanced structural budget were expected to adhere to a net expenditure rule. For countries subject to this requirement, we find undue optimism arising in forecasting the deficit ratio, a determinant of the debt ratio. The implications of these findings for EU policymakers and, in particular, forecasters are considered.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135605733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The global value chain: Challenges faced by ASEAN least developed countries 全球价值链:东盟最不发达国家面临的挑战

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.001

Pushkar Pushp, Faisal Ahmed

引用次数: 0

The effects of a US-China trade war on Sub-Saharan Africa: Pro-active domestic policies make the difference 美中贸易战对撒哈拉以南非洲的影响：积极的国内政策发挥了作用

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.002

Fatuma Abdallah Nantembelele , Mustafa K. Yilmaz , Ali Ari

引用次数: 0

Terrorism and economic policy responses in Tunisia 突尼斯的恐怖主义和经济政策反应

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.003

Insaf Khelifi , Yazid Dissou , Anis Bouabid

引用次数: 0

Artificial Intelligence (AI) can change the way of doing policy modelling 人工智能(AI)可以改变政策建模的方式

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.005

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada , Donghyun Park , Marcin Staniewski

{"title":"Artificial Intelligence (AI) can change the way of doing policy modelling","authors":"Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada , Donghyun Park , Marcin Staniewski","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper seeks to assess the transformative potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in policy modeling. Rapid advancements in AI, encompassing algorithms, advanced programming software, robotics, metadata, sophisticated mathematical models, neural networks, and graphical models are ushering in innovative new research methods for analysing and resolving intricate socio-economic issues. Our focus lies in a comparative evaluation of Artificial Intelligence Response (AIR) versus Human Intelligence Response (HIR) in generating swift and potent solutions to various socio-economic challenges. To achieve this, we propose a fundamental model for appraising the effectiveness of policy modeling, known as the \"Policy Modeling Response Evaluator (PMR-Evaluator).\" Furthermore, we conducted an experiment to gauge the responsiveness and effectiveness of both AIR and HIR. This experiment revolved around addressing a specific socio-economic problem, namely controlling inflation. Initially, we scrutinized responses from an extensive database of papers published in the Journal of Policy Modeling (JPM) by Elsevier over the past forty-five years (1978–2023) to ascertain HIR's capacity to analyze and resolve inflation-related issues. Concurrently, we utilized ChatGPT, a powerful artificial intelligence application (AI-APP), to explore potential solutions for controlling inflation. Ultimately, we analyzed whether HIR or AIR proved more effective and precise.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135510017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Macro-prudential policies to contain the effect of structural risks on financial downturns 遏制结构性风险对金融衰退影响的宏观审慎政策

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.08.001

Martin Hodula , Jan Janků , Lukáš Pfeifer

引用次数: 1

Optimal allocation of agriculture’s public budget can improve transformation and healthy diets access in Ethiopia 农业公共预算的最佳分配可以改善埃塞俄比亚健康饮食的获取

IF 3.5 2区经济学

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.09.005

Marco V. Sánchez , Martín Cicowiez

{"title":"Optimal allocation of agriculture’s public budget can improve transformation and healthy diets access in Ethiopia","authors":"Marco V. Sánchez , Martín Cicowiez","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.09.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.09.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Agriculture is under transformation in sub-Saharan Africa where millions still do not have access to a healthy diet. Policy makers in this region should find ways to accelerate agricultural transformation while increasing access to healthy diets. Optimizing agriculture’s public budget stands out as a handy option. By combining a dynamic computable general equilibrium model and a multi-criteria decision-making technique, and applying them in the context of Ethiopia, this paper points to an important trade-off that policy makers should keep in mind. An optimal allocation of agriculture’s public budget aimed at increasing agri-food output, creating off-farm jobs and reducing rural poverty, which are agricultural transformation objectives, will help to reduce the cost of a healthy diet, allowing around 2 million more Ethiopians to afford it. This number could even be higher should policy makers allocate the budget optimally aiming at only lowering the cost of a healthy diet, but at the cost of reducing household income and slowing down transformation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893823001059/pdfft?md5=9baa7ba2258994c58458718ed00788d3&pid=1-s2.0-S0161893823001059-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134993684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0