{"title":"南非储备银行是否应该降低通胀目标区间?国内生产总值与通货膨胀关系的启示","authors":"Eliphas Ndou , Nombulelo Gumata","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Should the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) lower the inflation target (IT) band? Does lowering the IT band impact the relationship between GDP growth and inflation? This paper explores these questions considering the SARB Governor, Lesetja Kganyago statements that there is a need to lower the IT band from 3–6% to a point target of 3%. We estimate the VAR model to determine whether the passthrough of positive GDP growth shocks to inflation is nonlinear in South Africa. The inflation effects are delineated into bands (i) above 6% (ii) between 4.5% and 6% (iii) between 3% and 4.5% (iv) between 0% and 3% and (v) when there are no IT bands. Evidence reveals that the passthrough is elevated when inflation exceeds 6% and is lower when inflation is within the (i) 3 to 4.5% and (ii) 0 to 3% IT bands. The passthrough from positive GDP growth shocks is more than halved when inflation is less than 3%. The policy implication is that lowering the IT band from 3 to 6% to 0 to 3% will reduce the passthrough of GDP growth shocks to inflation. It allows expansionary monetary to have more real effects as prices are more rigid in the low inflation environment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016189382400019X/pdfft?md5=452b517ca443e3ca407c6861abb45fa5&pid=1-s2.0-S016189382400019X-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Should the South African Reserve Bank lower the inflation target band? Insights from the GDP-inflation nexus\",\"authors\":\"Eliphas Ndou , Nombulelo Gumata\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.004\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Should the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) lower the inflation target (IT) band? Does lowering the IT band impact the relationship between GDP growth and inflation? This paper explores these questions considering the SARB Governor, Lesetja Kganyago statements that there is a need to lower the IT band from 3–6% to a point target of 3%. We estimate the VAR model to determine whether the passthrough of positive GDP growth shocks to inflation is nonlinear in South Africa. The inflation effects are delineated into bands (i) above 6% (ii) between 4.5% and 6% (iii) between 3% and 4.5% (iv) between 0% and 3% and (v) when there are no IT bands. Evidence reveals that the passthrough is elevated when inflation exceeds 6% and is lower when inflation is within the (i) 3 to 4.5% and (ii) 0 to 3% IT bands. The passthrough from positive GDP growth shocks is more than halved when inflation is less than 3%. The policy implication is that lowering the IT band from 3 to 6% to 0 to 3% will reduce the passthrough of GDP growth shocks to inflation. It allows expansionary monetary to have more real effects as prices are more rigid in the low inflation environment.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48015,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Policy Modeling\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016189382400019X/pdfft?md5=452b517ca443e3ca407c6861abb45fa5&pid=1-s2.0-S016189382400019X-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Policy Modeling\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016189382400019X\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Policy Modeling","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016189382400019X","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
南非储备银行(SARB)是否应该降低通胀目标(IT)区间?降低通胀目标区间是否会影响 GDP 增长与通胀之间的关系?考虑到南非储备银行行长 Lesetja Kganyago 声称有必要将通胀目标区间从 3-6% 下调至 3% 的点目标,本文对这些问题进行了探讨。我们对 VAR 模型进行了估计,以确定在南非,GDP 正增长对通货膨胀的冲击是否是非线性的。通胀效应被划分为以下几个区间:(i) 6% 以上;(ii) 4.5% 至 6% 之间;(iii) 3% 至 4.5% 之间;(iv) 0% 至 3% 之间;(v) 无 IT区间。证据显示,当通胀率超过 6%时,转嫁效应较高,而当通胀率在(i)3%至 4.5%和(ii)0%至 3%的 IT 范围内时,转嫁效应较低。当通胀率低于 3%时,GDP 正增长冲击的转嫁效应减半以上。其政策含义是,将 IT 波段从 3%至 6%下调至 0%至 3%,将减少 GDP 增长冲击对通货膨胀的传导。由于在低通胀环境下价格更加坚挺,这使得扩张性货币能够产生更多的实际效果。
Should the South African Reserve Bank lower the inflation target band? Insights from the GDP-inflation nexus
Should the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) lower the inflation target (IT) band? Does lowering the IT band impact the relationship between GDP growth and inflation? This paper explores these questions considering the SARB Governor, Lesetja Kganyago statements that there is a need to lower the IT band from 3–6% to a point target of 3%. We estimate the VAR model to determine whether the passthrough of positive GDP growth shocks to inflation is nonlinear in South Africa. The inflation effects are delineated into bands (i) above 6% (ii) between 4.5% and 6% (iii) between 3% and 4.5% (iv) between 0% and 3% and (v) when there are no IT bands. Evidence reveals that the passthrough is elevated when inflation exceeds 6% and is lower when inflation is within the (i) 3 to 4.5% and (ii) 0 to 3% IT bands. The passthrough from positive GDP growth shocks is more than halved when inflation is less than 3%. The policy implication is that lowering the IT band from 3 to 6% to 0 to 3% will reduce the passthrough of GDP growth shocks to inflation. It allows expansionary monetary to have more real effects as prices are more rigid in the low inflation environment.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Policy Modeling is published by Elsevier for the Society for Policy Modeling to provide a forum for analysis and debate concerning international policy issues. The journal addresses questions of critical import to the world community as a whole, and it focuses upon the economic, social, and political interdependencies between national and regional systems. This implies concern with international policies for the promotion of a better life for all human beings and, therefore, concentrates on improved methodological underpinnings for dealing with these problems.