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Economic and welfare effects of immigration policy: Lessons from the experience of Kuwait 移民政策的经济和福利影响：科威特的经验教训
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.006
Ayele Gelan, Shaima Al-Shamali, Wafa Awadh
{"title":"Economic and welfare effects of immigration policy: Lessons from the experience of Kuwait","authors":"Ayele Gelan,&nbsp;Shaima Al-Shamali,&nbsp;Wafa Awadh","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Immigration has increasingly caused heated debates in many countries. Political populism has often given rise to anti-immigrant attitude among the public. Immigration policy decisions have often been based on perceptions and attitudes rather than evidences, specifically considerations of net benefits to the host country. The main objective of this study is to quantify economic impacts of immigration policy, focusing on economic and welfare consequences of reducing the size of immigrant labor. This is illustrated by using the case of Kuwait. The authorities have recently decided to reduce the size of immigrant population. This study set out with the aim of measuring consequences of reducing immigrant labor. A multi-sectoral and economy-wide model was utilized. The model was specified appropriately to capture most features of a segmented labor market. Simulation experiments were conducted in scenarios related to the existing policy, the proposed policy of reducing the number of immigrants, and mitigations required to minimize adverse impacts of the immigration policy reform. The focus was on macro-economy, sectoral and welfare and income distribution impacts. The results obtained indicated inevitable adverse economic and welfare impacts on natives unless the reduction in immigrant labor was accompanied with productivity enhancing policies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42345074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The COVID-19 green certificate’s effect on vaccine uptake in French and Italian regions 新冠肺炎绿色证书对法国和意大利地区疫苗接种的影响
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.005
Raffaella Santolini
{"title":"The COVID-19 green certificate’s effect on vaccine uptake in French and Italian regions","authors":"Raffaella Santolini","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The COVID-19 green certificates were introduced in many countries in 2021 to encourage vaccine uptake against the COVID-19 virus in order to reduce the spread of severe infection among the population, ensure the safety of cross-border movements, and facilitate the resumption of social life and economic activities. This study uses a single-group interrupted time series approach to examine the effect of the green certificate announcement on the first doses of the COVID-19 vaccine in 20 Italian and 18 French regions during the summer of 2021. The estimation results show that the green certificate announcement mitigated regional disparities in vaccine uptake. It persuaded undecided people to have their first doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, especially in regions lagging in the mass vaccination campaign. It was less effective in those regions where there was already a high level of vaccine protection. The announcement also proved to be an effective political strategy with which to increase the first-dose rates immediately, but not in the long term.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42911941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Institutional determinants of internal conflicts in fragile developing countries 脆弱发展中国家内部冲突的制度决定因素
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.004
Syed Muhammad All-e-Raza Rizvi , Marie-Ange Véganzonès-Varoudakis
{"title":"Institutional determinants of internal conflicts in fragile developing countries","authors":"Syed Muhammad All-e-Raza Rizvi ,&nbsp;Marie-Ange Véganzonès-Varoudakis","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>In this article, we use fixed-effect Poisson regressions (FEPR) with robust standard errors and </span>instrumental variables (IV) to study the economic, social, and institutional determinants of internal conflicts in 58 fragile developing countries from 2004 to 2017. We show that effective institutions (measured by judicial efficiency and governance) and higher incomes could help reduce conflict in fragile countries. In contrast, trade reform does not seem to reduce violence, and education and democratic institutions may fuel conflict in some cases. These results imply that education and trade liberalization do not have the expected effects in fragile countries, which should probably first improve their social, economic, and institutional situation, before reaping the benefits of economic reforms and education. This may also be the case for political reforms, because democratic experience seems to lead to increased violence in some countries in our sample.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45293082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How bilateral trade deals get in the way of multilateral agreements: Why WTO is marginalized 双边贸易协定如何阻碍多边协定:WTO为何被边缘化
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.05.006
Jayson Beckman, Maros Ivanic, Saleem Shaik
{"title":"How bilateral trade deals get in the way of multilateral agreements: Why WTO is marginalized","authors":"Jayson Beckman,&nbsp;Maros Ivanic,&nbsp;Saleem Shaik","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.05.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.05.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use a ‘Nash in Nash’ framework within a computable general equilibrium model to determine the welfare maximizing set of bilateral trade agreements for countries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Comparing these agreements to an agreement involving all countries/sectors, we find that welfare is always larger in the multilateral agreement. This is because several sectors are often excluded from the bilateral agreements, and not all countries would have a bilateral agreement with others. The sectors that are often excluded from the agreements are agriculture, as these sectors are often deemed ‘sensitive’ in negotiations and are protected by high initial tariffs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46995922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The case for a World Carbon Bank 建立世界碳银行的理由
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.009
Kenneth Rogoff
{"title":"The case for a World Carbon Bank","authors":"Kenneth Rogoff","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper explores the idea of creating a new multilateral financial institution, a World Carbon Bank, to channel aid funds and technical expertise to low and middle-income countries, to aid with the green transition. A focused high-return first project could involve phasing out coal power plants and replacing with green alternatives. Coal accounts for 30% of global emissions. Many coal plants are located outside advanced economies and are relatively new. The costs of swapping them out is significant, and most poorer countries have little incentive or capacity to do so. WCB funds would be outright grants and not loans.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43533495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade-growth nexus: A study of G20 countries using simultaneous equations model with dynamic policy simulations 贸易增长关系：基于联立方程模型和动态政策模拟的G20国家研究
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.004
Janhavi Shankar Tripathi
{"title":"Trade-growth nexus: A study of G20 countries using simultaneous equations model with dynamic policy simulations","authors":"Janhavi Shankar Tripathi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.004","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48045664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Where is the EU economy headed? The international dimension 欧盟经济走向何方？国际维度
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.005
Moreno Bertoldi, Annika Eriksgård, Kristian Orsini, Philipp Pfeiffer
{"title":"Where is the EU economy headed? The international dimension","authors":"Moreno Bertoldi,&nbsp;Annika Eriksgård,&nbsp;Kristian Orsini,&nbsp;Philipp Pfeiffer","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Since 2020, the EU economy has been hit by a number of external shocks that have had a major impact on growth, employment and inflation. As the outlook for the world remains highly uncertain, international conditions are likely to continue to affect the EU’s economic performance until a more stable equilibrium is reached. The question is in which direction and by how much? This article presents three possible scenarios (baseline, adverse, and benign), which provide some impact quantification through the use of the European Commission’s Global Multicountry model, and considers the potential implications of these scenarios on where the EU economy is headed. The final part of the article discusses how the EU, by better reconciling its domestic and foreign agenda, can play a more proactive role in determining international conditions, leading to more favourable equilibria.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45102906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are trade restrictions counter-cyclical? Evidence from a new aggregate measure 贸易限制是反周期的吗?来自一个新的综合衡量标准的证据
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.04.008
Julia Estefania-Flores , Davide Furceri , Swarnali A. Hannan , Jonathan D. Ostry , Andrew K. Rose
{"title":"Are trade restrictions counter-cyclical? Evidence from a new aggregate measure","authors":"Julia Estefania-Flores ,&nbsp;Davide Furceri ,&nbsp;Swarnali A. Hannan ,&nbsp;Jonathan D. Ostry ,&nbsp;Andrew K. Rose","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.04.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.04.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We present a new Measure of Aggregate Trade Restrictions (MATR) using data from <em>the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions</em>. MATR is strongly correlated with existing measures of trade restrictiveness but more comprehensive in terms of country and time coverage. Our measure is available for an unbalanced sample of up to 157 countries during 1949–2019. We use our new MATR to re-examine how trade restrictiveness varies with the business cycle. Our results confirm that trade restrictions are typically a-cyclical but there is an important difference across income groups: aggregate trade restrictions are a-cyclical in advanced economies but are counter-cyclical in EMDEs, especially in response to increases in unemployment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45752007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Globalization: Uncoupled or unhinged? 全球化：脱钩还是精神错乱？
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.02.008
Barry Eichengreen
{"title":"Globalization: Uncoupled or unhinged?","authors":"Barry Eichengreen","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.02.008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.02.008","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49747795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How susceptible is the European financial stability to economic policy uncertainty? 经济政策不确定性对欧洲金融稳定的影响有多大?
IF 3.5 2区 经济学
Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.011
Lucjan T. Orlowski
{"title":"How susceptible is the European financial stability to economic policy uncertainty?","authors":"Lucjan T. Orlowski","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>This study examines the interdependence and asymmetries in the relationships between the economic policy uncertainty and the selected financial stability variables in Europe. Specifically, the impact of uncertainty on </span>inflation, </span>equity returns<span>, the euro in US dollar exchange rate and interest rates is analyzed. The results show a significant negative impact of shocks in economic policy uncertainty on equity returns in Europe during the examined January 1987 – January 2023 period. Uncertainty shocks affect inflation asymmetrically at different time intervals. Asymmetric responses of interest rates and the exchange rate to uncertainty shocks are also found. The results suggest that economic policies in Europe should encompass efforts to mitigate economic uncertainty.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42947010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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