{"title":"The case for a World Carbon Bank","authors":"Kenneth Rogoff","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper explores the idea of creating a new multilateral financial institution, a World Carbon Bank, to channel aid funds and technical expertise to low and middle-income countries, to aid with the green transition. A focused high-return first project could involve phasing out coal power plants and replacing with green alternatives. Coal accounts for 30% of global emissions. Many coal plants are located outside advanced economies and are relatively new. The costs of swapping them out is significant, and most poorer countries have little incentive or capacity to do so. WCB funds would be outright grants and not loans.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"45 4","pages":"Pages 693-701"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43533495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Trade-growth nexus: A study of G20 countries using simultaneous equations model with dynamic policy simulations","authors":"Janhavi Shankar Tripathi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.004","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"45 4","pages":"Pages 806-816"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48045664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Moreno Bertoldi, Annika Eriksgård, Kristian Orsini, Philipp Pfeiffer
{"title":"Where is the EU economy headed? The international dimension","authors":"Moreno Bertoldi, Annika Eriksgård, Kristian Orsini, Philipp Pfeiffer","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Since 2020, the EU economy has been hit by a number of external shocks that have had a major impact on growth, employment and inflation. As the outlook for the world remains highly uncertain, international conditions are likely to continue to affect the EU’s economic performance until a more stable equilibrium is reached. The question is in which direction and by how much? This article presents three possible scenarios (baseline, adverse, and benign), which provide some impact quantification through the use of the European Commission’s Global Multicountry model, and considers the potential implications of these scenarios on where the EU economy is headed. The final part of the article discusses how the EU, by better reconciling its domestic and foreign agenda, can play a more proactive role in determining international conditions, leading to more favourable equilibria.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"45 4","pages":"Pages 817-832"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45102906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Julia Estefania-Flores , Davide Furceri , Swarnali A. Hannan , Jonathan D. Ostry , Andrew K. Rose
{"title":"Are trade restrictions counter-cyclical? Evidence from a new aggregate measure","authors":"Julia Estefania-Flores , Davide Furceri , Swarnali A. Hannan , Jonathan D. Ostry , Andrew K. Rose","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.04.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.04.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We present a new Measure of Aggregate Trade Restrictions (MATR) using data from <em>the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions</em>. MATR is strongly correlated with existing measures of trade restrictiveness but more comprehensive in terms of country and time coverage. Our measure is available for an unbalanced sample of up to 157 countries during 1949–2019. We use our new MATR to re-examine how trade restrictiveness varies with the business cycle. Our results confirm that trade restrictions are typically a-cyclical but there is an important difference across income groups: aggregate trade restrictions are a-cyclical in advanced economies but are counter-cyclical in EMDEs, especially in response to increases in unemployment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"45 4","pages":"Pages 745-767"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45752007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How susceptible is the European financial stability to economic policy uncertainty?","authors":"Lucjan T. Orlowski","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>This study examines the interdependence and asymmetries in the relationships between the economic policy uncertainty and the selected financial stability variables in Europe. Specifically, the impact of uncertainty on </span>inflation, </span>equity returns<span>, the euro in US dollar exchange rate and interest rates is analyzed. The results show a significant negative impact of shocks in economic policy uncertainty on equity returns in Europe during the examined January 1987 – January 2023 period. Uncertainty shocks affect inflation asymmetrically at different time intervals. Asymmetric responses of interest rates and the exchange rate to uncertainty shocks are also found. The results suggest that economic policies in Europe should encompass efforts to mitigate economic uncertainty.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"45 4","pages":"Pages 864-875"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42947010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Where is the Euro Area headed? Restoration of price stability","authors":"Anastasios G. Malliaris , Mary E. Malliaris","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>After the two recent global shocks of the COVID-19 Pandemic of 2019–2021 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the 2023–24 economic priority for the Euro Area is the fight against inflation in the midst of global economic and financial uncertainties. We focus on Euro Area inflation, analyze its diagnostics, examine </span>inflation expectations<span>, review theories of inflation and evaluate monetary and fiscal policies prompted because of COVID-19. Then we explore policies of the European Central Bank to fight inflation and conclude that restoration of price stability in the Euro Area will remain its central focus during 2023 and 2024.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"45 4","pages":"Pages 848-863"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46101208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Whither multilateralism?","authors":"Joseph E. Stiglitz","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.008","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"45 4","pages":"Pages 702-712"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49747424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dominick Salvatore , Alberto Costantiello , Fred Campano
{"title":"Trade and growth in the world economy","authors":"Dominick Salvatore , Alberto Costantiello , Fred Campano","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.010","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"45 4","pages":"Pages 781-788"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48592731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}