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Quantitative analysis of a wealth tax for the United States: Exclusions and expenditures 美国财富税的定量分析:排除与支出
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103559
Rachel Moore, Brandon Pecoraro
{"title":"Quantitative analysis of a wealth tax for the United States: Exclusions and expenditures","authors":"Rachel Moore,&nbsp;Brandon Pecoraro","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103559","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>We use a quantitative overlapping generations model with endogenous tax avoidance and rich tax detail to analyze two major issues in the design of a </span>wealth<span> tax for the United States: the provision of exclusions for certain housing and business equity, and the range of government expenditure<span> options allowed for by additional revenues. First, we find that while the exclusion for owner-occupied housing results in quantitatively insignificant macroeconomic and budgetary effects, the exclusion for privately-held noncorporate business equity results in a shift of productive activity towards that sector which can significantly undermine the revenue-raising potential of the tax. Second, we find that the macroeconomic effects of a given wealth tax regime can vary in magnitudes of contraction or expansion depending on the type of expenditures that are assumed to be financed by the additional revenues.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103559"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49901204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Subsistence consumption and natural resource depletion: Can resource-rich low-income countries realize sustainable consumption paths? 生存消费与自然资源枯竭:资源丰富的低收入国家能否实现可持续消费路径?
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103549
Jürgen Antony , Torben Klarl
{"title":"Subsistence consumption and natural resource depletion: Can resource-rich low-income countries realize sustainable consumption paths?","authors":"Jürgen Antony ,&nbsp;Torben Klarl","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103549","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103549","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This contribution is concerned with efficient use of a resource if households are characterized by Stone–Geary preferences with a minimum subsistence level of consumption. Subsistence consumption implies particular minimum requirements for initial endowments with reproducible man-made capital and resources. If these are not met, the economy is not able to cover subsistence consumption such as nutrition. Focusing on the steady state, we find that the equilibrium can be governed by zero or positive growth. The latter occurs if the rate of exogenous technical change exceeds the rate of time preference. In the former case, we can show that Hartwick’s investment rule applies in a steady state. Finally, we calibrate the model for developing but resource-rich countries and trace the full dynamic development of the economy. Furthermore, we evaluate this full adjustment process regarding several sustainability indicators.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 103549"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43363553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global models for a global pandemic: The impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economies 全球大流行的全球模型：新冠肺炎对欧元区小型经济体的影响
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103551
Pablo Garcia , Pascal Jacquinot , Črt Lenarčič , Matija Lozej , Kostas Mavromatis
{"title":"Global models for a global pandemic: The impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economies","authors":"Pablo Garcia ,&nbsp;Pascal Jacquinot ,&nbsp;Črt Lenarčič ,&nbsp;Matija Lozej ,&nbsp;Kostas Mavromatis","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103551","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103551","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We analyse the COVID-19 pandemic shock on small open economies<span> (SOEs) in the euro area in a unified modelling framework: the Euro Area and the Global Economy model. We find strong negative international spillovers<span> affecting each of the modelled SOEs, stemming not only from the rest of the euro area, but also from the United States and the rest of the world. A lower bound on nominal interest rates in the euro area amplifies these spillovers, especially within the euro area. Furthermore, we find some positive spillovers from the fiscal measures implemented in the Euro area to combat the pandemic, including the new Next Generation EU instrument.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 103551"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50203547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Misallocation of talent, teachers’ human capital, and development in Brazil 巴西人才配置不当、教师人力资本与发展
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103542
Fernando Barros Jr , Bruno R. Delalibera , Luciano Nakabashi , Marcos J. Ribeiro
{"title":"Misallocation of talent, teachers’ human capital, and development in Brazil","authors":"Fernando Barros Jr ,&nbsp;Bruno R. Delalibera ,&nbsp;Luciano Nakabashi ,&nbsp;Marcos J. Ribeiro","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103542","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103542","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, we investigate the allocation of talent in an economy where teachers play a critical role in developing the human capital of the workforce. To this end, we formulate a Roy model with externality in the occupational choice, as the quantity and quality of teachers are key determinants of workers’ human capital. Our analysis suggests that when individuals with greater abilities opt for teaching careers, the entire workforce benefits. However, frictions in the labor and educational goods markets may lead to a suboptimal allocation of talent and hinder economic growth and development. Our model is calibrated to the Brazilian economy, and our findings reveal a negative correlation between frictions in the teacher’s occupation and per capita output in the Brazilian states. Our results indicate that eliminating friction in the labor market could result in a 16.94% increase in Brazilian income.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 103542"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49881639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Taylor rules: Consequences for wealth and income inequality 泰勒法则:财富和收入不平等的后果
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103544
Yoichi Gokan , Stephen J. Turnovsky
{"title":"Taylor rules: Consequences for wealth and income inequality","authors":"Yoichi Gokan ,&nbsp;Stephen J. Turnovsky","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103544","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103544","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This paper compares the consequences of “active” vs. “passive” Taylor rules<span> for wealth and income inequality. Since the distinction is operative only along transitional paths, we compare the implications for two forms of government expenditure that generate such transitions. Our results confirm that the contrasting effects obtained previously for the aggregate economy have significant distributional consequences. For an </span></span><em>active</em> Taylor rule, whether the government increases its expenditure on consumption, or productively, wealth inequality will increase. Expenditure on the two public goods yields divergent paths for income inequality. Government consumption expenditure raises income inequality; productive government expenditure reduces it. If the Taylor rule is <em>passive</em>, an increase in either form of government expenditure reduces wealth inequality initially and over time. Income inequality initially increases, but declines over time, although remaining above its previous steady-state level.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 103544"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44473873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Business cycle synchronization and African monetary union: A wavelet analysis 经济周期同步与非洲货币联盟:小波分析
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103527
Gislain Stéphane Gandjon Fankem, Lucien Cédric Fouda Mbesa
{"title":"Business cycle synchronization and African monetary union: A wavelet analysis","authors":"Gislain Stéphane Gandjon Fankem,&nbsp;Lucien Cédric Fouda Mbesa","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103527","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103527","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we analyze the feasibility of an African monetary union based on the necessary condition of business cycle synchronization. In this regard, we examine the synchronization of growth cycles between five Regional Economic Communities (RECs) that will have to merge to form an African monetary union: the East African Community; the Economic Community of Central African States; the Economic Community of West African States; the Southern African Development Community; and the Arab Maghreb Union. To do this, we use a new continuous wavelet approach. Results show evidence of heterogeneous synchronization across time and horizons between the RECs. Controlling for the influence of some countries' membership in several RECs at the same time, the synchronization landscape does not improve. Overall, our results suggest that business cycle synchronization across the RECs has not yet reached a sufficient level to allow African countries to benefit from a common monetary policy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 103527"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47900138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Measuring Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: The Effect of Guided vs Non-Guided Inflation Questions 测量家庭通胀感知和预期:指导性与非指导性通胀问题的影响
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-08-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103558
Bernd Hayo , Pierre-Guillaume Méon
{"title":"Measuring Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: The Effect of Guided vs Non-Guided Inflation Questions","authors":"Bernd Hayo ,&nbsp;Pierre-Guillaume Méon","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103558","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>An experiment using a representative survey of the German population shows that letting respondents report a number rather than asking them to choose from a list of predefined ranges lowers the response rate for both perceived past and expected inflation<span> and decreases (increases) reported past (expected) inflation<span>. Income, education, gender, objective and subjective knowledge about monetary policy, and political affiliation affect the effect's size but not its sign. East and West German respondents who were 15 or older when the Berlin Wall fell have reactions different from those who were younger at that time, which supports the ‘impressionable years’ hypothesis based on different inflation experiences.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103558"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49901203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Naïve agents with non-unitary discounting rate in a monetary economy Naïve货币经济中具有非单一贴现率的代理人
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103550
Koichi Futagami , Daiki Maeda
{"title":"Naïve agents with non-unitary discounting rate in a monetary economy","authors":"Koichi Futagami ,&nbsp;Daiki Maeda","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103550","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103550","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>We incorporate naïve agents with a non-unitary discounting rate into a cash-in-advance (CIA) model. Through this extension, we obtain the following results. First, we show that there exists an equilibrium in which the CIA constraint does not bind when individuals discount their utilities from future consumption lower than their utilities from future leisure time. Notably, this non-binding equilibrium exists even if the nominal interest rate takes a positive value. Second, we demonstrate that increases in the money supply growth rate decrease individuals’ </span>saving rates in equilibrium, where the CIA constraint does not bind. Third, we exhibit that when the equilibrium where the CIA constraint does not bind exists, the welfare level of this equilibrium can be higher than that of the equilibrium in which the CIA constraint binds. Moreover, we deduce that the Friedman rule cannot be optimal in the equilibrium in which the CIA constraint binds and present the result that the optimal level of the optimal nominal interest rate is affected by the difference in the discount rates.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103550"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44715601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
COVID-19 inflation weights in the UK and Germany 英国和德国的COVID-19通胀权重
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103543
Francesco Grigoli, Evgenia Pugacheva
{"title":"COVID-19 inflation weights in the UK and Germany","authors":"Francesco Grigoli,&nbsp;Evgenia Pugacheva","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103543","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103543","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The COVID-19 pandemic altered consumption patterns significantly in a short period of time. However, official inflation statistics take time to reflect changes in the weights of the CPI consumption basket. Using credit card data for the UK and Germany, we document how consumption patterns changed and quantify the resulting inflation bias. We find that consumers experienced a higher level of inflation at the beginning of the pandemic than what a fixed-weight inflation (or the official-weight) index suggests and lower inflation thereafter. We also show that weights can differ among age groups and in-person vs. online spenders. These differences affect the purchasing power of the population heterogeneously. We conclude that CPI inflation indexes based on frequently updated weights can provide useful inputs to assess changes in the cost of living, including across segments of the population. If shifts in consumption patterns prove persistent, these indexes can help determine the need to introduce new weights and inform monetary policy and the design of support policies for the more vulnerable.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103543"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10276500/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10091886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Staggered wages, unanticipated shocks and firms’ adjustments 交错的工资，意料之外的冲击和公司的调整
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103521
Francesco G. Caloia , Jante Parlevliet , Mauro Mastrogiacomo
{"title":"Staggered wages, unanticipated shocks and firms’ adjustments","authors":"Francesco G. Caloia ,&nbsp;Jante Parlevliet ,&nbsp;Mauro Mastrogiacomo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103521","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>This paper empirically investigates the employment and wage effects of contract staggering, i.e., the asynchronous and infrequent way in which wages adjust to changes in the economic environment. Using an identification strategy based on exogenous start dates of collective agreements around the Great Recession, we estimate the effect of increases in base wages on firms’ labor cost adjustments. Our analysis is based on a large employers-employees dataset merged to collective agreements in the Netherlands, a country in which </span>collective bargaining is dominant and contract staggering is relatively pervasive. The main result is that staggered wage setting has no real effect on employment. We find significant employment losses only in sectors covered by contracts with much longer durations than those normally assumed in </span>macroeconomic models<span> featuring staggered wages. Instead, we show that firms adjust labor costs by curbing other pay components such as bonuses and benefits and incidental pay. The overall result supports the idea that wage rigidities are not the main source of employment fluctuations.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 103521"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49899597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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