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Is deflation cause for panic? Evidence from the National Banking era 通货紧缩会引起恐慌吗？国家银行时代的证据
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103641
{"title":"Is deflation cause for panic? Evidence from the National Banking era","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103641","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103641","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the relationship between deflation, real output, and bank panics in the United States during the National Banking era from 1868 to 1913, a period marked by frequent deflationary episodes and many bank panics. Using a structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions, I distinguish between deflation as part of negative aggregate demand shocks and deflation as part of positive aggregate supply shocks. My findings indicate that negative aggregate demand shocks are associated with an increased likelihood of bank panics, while positive aggregate supply shocks are not. I then bolster these findings with case studies of the major bank panics of 1873, 1893, and 1907, analyzing stock data, bank clearing data, and narrative evidence. Combined, these results suggest that unexpected declines in nominal income, rather than deflation itself, contribute to financial stress, aligning with recent theoretical work.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142327267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Traditional output dynamics: A structural perspective 传统的产出动态：结构视角
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103640
{"title":"Traditional output dynamics: A structural perspective","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103640","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103640","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We provide theoretical underpinnings to the traditional IS curve by using the concept of basic and non-basic goods and services in the consumption basket. An extended version of this IS curve incorporates the effects of functional income distribution by appealing to rule-of-thumb behavior. An empirical analysis for both emerging and advanced economies shows that this IS curve does not suffer from the \"IS puzzle,\" a weakness that affects its new Keynesian counterpart, when a measure of the nominal interest rate is used. The interest rate negatively and significantly affects output. Secondly, the second-order term typically specified in the output dynamics does not arise from structural consumption behavior. Thirdly, although we find significant rule-of-thumb behavior in that the labor share is statistically significant, optimal behavior dominates economies. Lastly, basics make up an overwhelming component of the consumption basket, which explains the sluggish response of output to shocks. The implication is that there is a need to extend the basic two-equation model into a 3-equation system by adding the dynamics of the labor share.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070424000557/pdfft?md5=118f5de1b764d624e5fec6ab519cc2f2&pid=1-s2.0-S0164070424000557-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142239671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A bank-level analysis of interest rate pass-through in South Africa 对南非利率转嫁的银行层面分析
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103639
{"title":"A bank-level analysis of interest rate pass-through in South Africa","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103639","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103639","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study the pass-through of policy rate hikes and cuts to household and corporate lending and deposit interest rates in South Africa over the period January 2009 to December 2020. We show that rate hikes are typically passed through to mortgage interest rates completely while rate cuts are not. This asymmetry is more prevalent for household than corporate mortgages. Pass-through to household and corporate call deposit interest rates is typically complete, but cheque account interest rates are highly sticky and experience weak pass-through. Our results indicate that banks’ pass-through decisions often impose greater costs on households than firms, and may blunt the stimulatory effect of rate cuts by weakening their impact on debt servicing costs and the remuneration of deposit balances.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142233687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Job search intensity and wage rigidity in business cycles 商业周期中的求职强度和工资刚性
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103624
{"title":"Job search intensity and wage rigidity in business cycles","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103624","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103624","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Search intensity, as well as the aggregate economic condition, is a crucial factor that determines unemployed workers’ success in job searches. Their search intensity is predicted to be procyclical in standard search and matching models. However, many empirical studies show that search intensity is countercyclical. This study examines the job search behavior of unemployed workers over business cycles using a search and matching model that incorporates wage rigidity and a generalized matching function. Unlike previous studies, the proposed model can generate both procyclical and countercyclical search intensities by introducing wage rigidity. This study calibrates the model to the U.S. economy and provides various impulse response analyses. The numerical exercises show that the model successfully and simultaneously reproduces countercyclical search efforts and sizable labor market fluctuations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142011153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Jobless recoveries and time variation in labor markets 失业复苏与劳动力市场的时间变化
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103623
{"title":"Jobless recoveries and time variation in labor markets","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103623","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103623","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study the nature of changes in the relationship between the labor market and output by using a broader set of labor market variables and a flexible time-varying-parameter vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TVP-SV). Overall, the TVP-SV model fits the labor market data well and has good predictive performance. We find heterogeneity both in the timing and the type of changes in the relationship between labor market variables and output. We find evidence that the relationship between output and employment growth, hours, vacancies, and wages has changed over time, with employment, wages, and vacancies being less responsive over time. In contrast, the responses of hours and part-time employment to output have become stronger over time, indicating a shift towards utilization of the intensive margin and towards utilizing more flexible labor inputs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141848940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effects of a money-financed fiscal stimulus under fiscal stress 财政压力下货币融资财政刺激的效果
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103621
{"title":"The effects of a money-financed fiscal stimulus under fiscal stress","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103621","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103621","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper studies the local determinacy requirements and the effects of a money-financed fiscal stimulus under fiscal stress in a canonical New Keynesian model. We consider three alternative monetary policies and find that the money-financed policy adopted in Galí (2020) to keep zero-debt-increase (ZDI) leads to an unsustainable debt path, while introducing a debt growth target restores stability. A debt-targeting rule (DT) generates smaller instantaneous multipliers and larger cumulative multipliers with respect to the ZDI, whereas a mixed-targeting rule (MT) that takes both debt and inflation into consideration exaggerates the trade-off between short-run and long-run multipliers. Deficit financing decomposition shows that, relative to seigniorage, inflation and changes in the stochastic discount factor play more important roles. Moreover, welfare analysis implies that a sluggish money financing scheme causes extra welfare loss. Finally, we quantify the effects of money-financed fiscal measures in a COVID recession.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141949677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Entrepreneurship, growth and productivity with bubbles 有泡沫的创业、增长和生产力
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103622
{"title":"Entrepreneurship, growth and productivity with bubbles","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103622","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103622","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Entrepreneurship, growth and total factor productivity are larger when asset prices are high and decline during financial crises. We explain these facts using a growth model with financial bubbles in which individuals have heterogeneous wages and returns on productive investment. Heterogeneity separates individuals between savers and entrepreneurs. Savers buy financial assets, which are deposits or a financial bubble. Entrepreneurs incur in a start-up cost and borrow to invest in productive capital. The bubble provides liquidities to credit-constrained entrepreneurs. These liquidities increase investment, growth and entrepreneurship. Finally, the bubble may increase productivity when the return of each entrepreneur’s investment is positively correlated with her previous income.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141954409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Central bank digital currency and financial inclusion 中央银行数字货币与普惠金融
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103620
Brandon Joel Tan
{"title":"Central bank digital currency and financial inclusion","authors":"Brandon Joel Tan","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103620","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103620","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper develops a model to incorporate the impact of financial inclusion to study the implications of issuing a CBDC. In a “two-tier” model where banks distribute CBDC, CBDCs have the potential to increase the supply of deposits by incentivizing the unbanked to open bank accounts (offsetting potential flows from deposits to CBDCs), boosting overall lending. This is more likely when CBDC is valuable as a means of payment, provides anonymity in payments, and/or offers remuneration, especially in developing countries where the size and relative wealth of the previously unbanked population is large. CBDC can be optimal for household welfare even when overall lending decreases as households benefit from the value of using CBDC for payments and as an alternative “safe” savings vehicle.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141607348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Who gets the flow? Financial globalisation and wealth inequality 谁在流动？金融全球化与财富不平等
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103618
Simone Arrigoni
{"title":"Who gets the flow? Financial globalisation and wealth inequality","authors":"Simone Arrigoni","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103618","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103618","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper studies whether the advent of financial globalisation has contributed to increasing wealth inequality in the United States, France, and the United Kingdom. I find that (i) positive changes in the benchmark measure of financial globalisation are associated with a positive change in the top 1% and 10% wealth shares and a negative change in the wealth share of the bottom 50% of the distribution. This is equivalent to an average gain of $1 trillion for the top 10% and $1.6 trillion for the top 1%, over the period of interest. (ii) Portfolio equities and financial derivatives appear to be the driving components behind the increase in wealth shares. (iii) The implied change in wealth shares is driven by the accumulation of new financial wealth (flow) rather than the valuation of existing one. (iv) The dynamic is strengthened when a banking crisis hits the economy, possibly because people at the top of the distribution can recover their lost wealth faster than people at the bottom. The main finding is robust to an expanded country sample, albeit reducing the historical context beyond the scope of this paper.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070424000338/pdfft?md5=75f97f6c921966ae27dd10380adb3b20&pid=1-s2.0-S0164070424000338-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141592709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What's eating macro? 什么在吃宏观？
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103619
Peter McAdam
{"title":"What's eating macro?","authors":"Peter McAdam","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103619","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103619","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The starting point for this article is a review of the book <em>A Practical Guide to Macroeconomics</em> by Jeremy Rudd. The book argues that macroeconomics, as practiced in academia and filtered through to policy institutions, has provided a highly imperfect guide for how policy works and should work in practice. This review assesses the arguments outlined in the book, discusses some issues absent from the book, and addresses more general themes that arise in the interface between academic and policy macro.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141607347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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