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What do we know about estimating government spending multipliers? 关于估算政府支出乘数，我们知道些什么？
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103721
Taewoong Jo , Jihye Kang , Joonyoung Hur
{"title":"What do we know about estimating government spending multipliers?","authors":"Taewoong Jo ,&nbsp;Jihye Kang ,&nbsp;Joonyoung Hur","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103721","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103721","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the DSGE model as the data-generating process (DGP), we assess how three key modeling choices influence government spending multiplier estimates: (1) the econometric method—vector autoregressions (VARs) versus local projections (LPs); (2) the identification strategy for government spending shocks—such as recursive, Blanchard–Perotti (BP), or forecast error (FE) methods; and (3) the variable transformation—log versus Gordon–Krenn (GK). Our results demonstrate that even when using the same data set, these choices can lead to substantially different multiplier estimates. Furthermore, we find that the choice of econometric method should align with the shock identification strategy and targeted estimation horizon. For the short-run, LP method produces the most accurate government spending multipliers when the true shock sequence is known. When there is no strong candidate for the shock, BP-type shocks are preferable, with both VAR and LP methods being more suitable for short-run analysis, while VAR models yield more reliable estimates for long-run horizons. Additionally, using the GK transformation instead of the log transformation reduces the upward bias commonly observed in VAR and LP estimates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103721"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Was pandemic fiscal relief effective fiscal stimulus? Evidence from aid to state and local governments 流行病财政救助是有效的财政刺激吗？对州和地方政府的援助就是证据
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103720
Jeffrey Clemens , Philip G. Hoxie , Stan Veuger
{"title":"Was pandemic fiscal relief effective fiscal stimulus? Evidence from aid to state and local governments","authors":"Jeffrey Clemens ,&nbsp;Philip G. Hoxie ,&nbsp;Stan Veuger","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103720","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103720","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use an instrumental-variables estimator reliant on variation in congressional representation to analyze the macroeconomic effects of federal aid to state and local governments during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through December 2022, we estimate statistically insignificant impacts of federal aid on employment. Our baseline point estimate suggests that $603,000 were allocated for each state or local government job-year preserved, and the bounds on our baseline confidence interval rule out estimates smaller than $220,400. Our estimates of effects on aggregate income and output are centered on zero and imply modest if any spillover effects onto the broader economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103720"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145094917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why old-age poverty matters: Evidence from consumption responses to income shocks 老年贫困为何重要：来自收入冲击下消费反应的证据
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103718
Yunho Cho , Jiseob Kim , Julie Kim
{"title":"Why old-age poverty matters: Evidence from consumption responses to income shocks","authors":"Yunho Cho ,&nbsp;Jiseob Kim ,&nbsp;Julie Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103718","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103718","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates consumption responses to idiosyncratic income shocks, focusing on the elderly in Korea—an economy with the highest old-age poverty rate among developed nations. Using a semi-structural model of income and consumption dynamics alongside household survey data from Korea, the U.S., and Australia, we find that Korean elderly households exhibit consumption responses to permanent income shocks that are 30% points higher than those of middle-aged households in Korea and 57% points higher than those of elderly households in the U.S. and Australia. These large consumption responses are primarily driven by the low wealth elderly, who lack sufficient self-insurance. Our findings emphasize the significant role of poverty, which remains highly persistent throughout the life cycle in Korea, in undermining the elderly’s ability to maintain consumption insurance, thereby deteriorating their welfare. Furthermore, our results highlight the critical role of government transfers in providing consumption insurance for the elderly.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103718"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can you improve upon the GDP forecasts of professional forecasters using information about monetary policy? 你能利用有关货币政策的信息改进专业预测者对GDP的预测吗？
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103717
Dean Croushore
{"title":"Can you improve upon the GDP forecasts of professional forecasters using information about monetary policy?","authors":"Dean Croushore","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103717","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103717","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, I examine the forecast errors of macroeconomic forecasters to see whether or not their forecasts are efficiently using information about monetary policy. The goal is to investigate, using real-time data, previous research that has found inefficiency in forecasts with respect to monetary policy. I use a real-time data set to investigate the relationship between GDP forecast errors and changes in monetary policy both in-sample and with out-of-sample methods. Out-of-sample results show that exploiting inefficiency is difficult in real time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103717"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145004414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The role of MPC heterogeneity for fiscal policy in the euro area 货币政策委员会异质性在欧元区财政政策中的作用
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103719
Nicolas Albacete , Pirmin Fessler , Atanas Pekanov
{"title":"The role of MPC heterogeneity for fiscal policy in the euro area","authors":"Nicolas Albacete ,&nbsp;Pirmin Fessler ,&nbsp;Atanas Pekanov","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103719","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103719","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We assess the implications of heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) for fiscal policy in the euro area. Extending the seminal work of Jappelli and Pistaferri (2014), we document an average MPC of 0.46, with significant variation across countries, household characteristics, and financial positions, including cash-on-hand as well as liquid and illiquid wealth. The mean MPC ranges from 0.33 in the Netherlands to 0.57 in Lithuania. Households with lower cash-on-hand exhibit higher MPCs on average. Policy experiments demonstrate that accounting for MPC heterogeneity enhances the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating GDP growth compared with assuming uniform MPCs. We provide a pandemic-related example: a fiscal stimulus programme targeted at a contact-intensive sector with higher MPCs on average, which increases aggregate consumption by 1.70%, while the same programme targeted at a less contact-intensive sector increases consumption by only 1.17%. Finally, we provide moments to support the calibration of Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian models such as the ratio of household assets-to-GDP in the euro area, which stands at 689%.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103719"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145019556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Efficiency wages, consumption inequality and self-fulfilling business cycles 效率工资、消费不平等和自我实现的商业周期
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103716
Wei Dai , Mark Weder , Bo Zhang
{"title":"Efficiency wages, consumption inequality and self-fulfilling business cycles","authors":"Wei Dai ,&nbsp;Mark Weder ,&nbsp;Bo Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103716","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103716","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a model of business cycles for an economy that is characterized by involuntary unemployment and being dependent on energy imports. The presence of both factors increases aggregate volatility in a well-defined way: empirically reasonable degrees of income insurance and cost shares of imported energy generate equilibrium indeterminacy making the economy potentially subject to sunspots. The underlying force for this result is the heterogeneity in consumption levels of the employed and unemployed individuals. We estimate the model and find that its specification with indeterminacy has a marginal data density significantly higher than the determinacy version for the Great Moderation period as well as since the Great Recession. We back out a series for non-fundamental changes in expectations. This series of sunspots is highly correlated with a common measure of confidence and, through the lens of our theory, these sunspot shocks have played a non-trivial role in driving the U.S. business cycle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103716"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144920201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Public investment multipliers and the role of efficiency: new evidence for emerging markets 公共投资乘数和效率的作用：新兴市场的新证据
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103705
Martín Ardanaz , Zoila Llempén López , Jorge Puig , Oscar Valencia
{"title":"Public investment multipliers and the role of efficiency: new evidence for emerging markets","authors":"Martín Ardanaz ,&nbsp;Zoila Llempén López ,&nbsp;Jorge Puig ,&nbsp;Oscar Valencia","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103705","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103705","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper estimates the public investment multiplier in a sample of emerging economies across Latin America and the Caribbean under a common methodological approach. Based on the Local Projections method, we identify fiscal shocks using timing restrictions for a panel of 11 countries observed over the last 30 years. The results show that the multiplier is, on average, 1.1 two years after the investment shock. In addition, we find heterogeneous multiplier effects depending on the degree of public investment efficiency. Under low levels of efficiency, public investment does not affect economic activity. However, the multiplier is 2.5 and private sector investment is stimulated for higher levels of efficiency. By shedding light on the size of the public investment multiplier and its sensitivity to efficiency levels, our findings inform the design of fiscal policy strategies conducive to sustainable growth in emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103705"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144987999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A monetary policy accordion: Why do central banks from different countries expand and contract together? 货币政策手风琴：为什么不同国家的央行会同时扩张和收缩？
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103703
Parantap Basu , Yongdae Lee , Leslie J. Reinhorn
{"title":"A monetary policy accordion: Why do central banks from different countries expand and contract together?","authors":"Parantap Basu ,&nbsp;Yongdae Lee ,&nbsp;Leslie J. Reinhorn","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103703","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103703","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>During recent decades, the monetary policies of central banks have shown significant co-movements mostly led by major economies such as the US. We find that this can be explained even when central banks adopt “inward looking” policy rules without aiming to stabilize exchange rates. We develop an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with an agency problem in the banking sector. Our study suggests two channels through which the foreign and home policy rates co-move. Following the terms of trade channel, an exogenous rise in the foreign policy rate results in a capital outflow and a depreciation of the home currency. As import prices rise, home inflation increases and imports decrease. Then, via the Taylor rule, the home central bank raises its policy rate. The balance sheet channel coupled with a borrowing constraint amplifies the effects of the foreign policy rate shock. Due to the capital outflows that follow from the increase in the foreign rate, home banks experience a contraction of their balance sheets. The borrowing constraint then generates a feedback effect. This financial accelerator makes funding scarce, puts upward pressure on the user cost of capital, and feeds into even higher inflation. The policy co-movement becomes stronger when (a) global financial markets are more integrated, (b) the home country’s openness is higher, and (c) the home central bank is more aggressive in fighting inflation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103703"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145004413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Capital account liberalization, production heterogeneity, and belief-driven fluctuations in financial-constrained economies 资本账户自由化、生产异质性和金融约束经济体中信念驱动的波动
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103715
Takuma Kunieda , Kazuo Nishimura
{"title":"Capital account liberalization, production heterogeneity, and belief-driven fluctuations in financial-constrained economies","authors":"Takuma Kunieda ,&nbsp;Kazuo Nishimura","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103715","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103715","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To investigate the macroeconomic effects of capital account liberalization, we apply a dynamic general equilibrium model with two production sectors. In contrast to the literature on belief-driven sunspot fluctuations caused by production externalities, our model does not assume any production externalities. In our model, agents face financial constraints and production heterogeneity. The financial constraints and agents’ production heterogeneity are sources of dynamic inefficiency. Although indeterminacy of equilibrium and belief-driven sunspot fluctuations never occur in the closed economy, dynamic inefficiency combined with a negative foreign asset in the steady state produces indeterminacy in the small open economy if financial constraints are fully relaxed under the condition that the investment goods sector is more labor intensive than the consumption goods sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103715"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intensive and extensive margins of labor adjustment with non-regular employment 劳动调整的密集和粗放边际与非正规就业
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103704
Tetsuaki Takano
{"title":"Intensive and extensive margins of labor adjustment with non-regular employment","authors":"Tetsuaki Takano","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103704","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103704","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates labor adjustments in firms over the business cycle, focusing on intensive and extensive margins, including regular and non-regular employment. I present a set of stylized facts that the intensive margin and job heterogeneity matter for labor adjustments. I develop a search-matching model incorporating these aspects. The propagation effects of TFP shocks on the labor market are qualitatively consistent with empirical findings. Moreover, the model realistically simulates macroeconomic volatility. This volatility is generated by the introduction of the intensive margin, while that of non-regular jobs has little impact on amplifying fluctuations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103704"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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