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Bilateral output synchronization in a globalized world: A macroeconomic evaluation of the third-country effect
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103665
Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte , Jean-Christophe Poutineau , Tovonony Razafindrabe , Fabien Rondeau
{"title":"Bilateral output synchronization in a globalized world: A macroeconomic evaluation of the third-country effect","authors":"Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte ,&nbsp;Jean-Christophe Poutineau ,&nbsp;Tovonony Razafindrabe ,&nbsp;Fabien Rondeau","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103665","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103665","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the influence of third countries on the output synchronization between two trading partners. We first address this issue in a three-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, where trade in intermediate goods operates at the intensive and extensive margins. We find that adding a third trading partner strengthens the output co-movement between two countries through two channels: a trade channel, driven by a higher total number of varieties traded that makes production processes more homogeneous across countries, and a macroeconomic channel where the third country exerts a stabilizing effect on the intensive and extensive margins of production in the other two countries. Applying Jordà’s local projections to 34 countries from 1979Q2 to 2019Q4, we find that the inclusion of a third partner raises the output co-movement in 75% of cases on average, with a median rise of 54% on average compared to the two-country case. Our results are robust to (i) an alternative identification of productivity shocks and (ii) the inclusion of extensive trade margins as control variables. Those stylized facts of upward output synchronization resulting from the explicit inclusion of a third trading partner are consistent with our theoretical predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103665"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143474724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do commitment and enforcement of fiscal rules enhance fiscal stability? Evidence from European Union countries
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103664
Antonia López-Villavicencio, Jocelyne Zoumenou
{"title":"Do commitment and enforcement of fiscal rules enhance fiscal stability? Evidence from European Union countries","authors":"Antonia López-Villavicencio,&nbsp;Jocelyne Zoumenou","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103664","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103664","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impact of fiscal rules on EU countries’ fiscal stability, particularly within the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) framework. By rigorously addressing endogeneity concerns, we show that, among all the rules imposed by the SGP, compliance with budget balance rules (BBR) and to a lesser extent, deficit rules, are the only ones that contribute to fiscal stability. However, countries that comply with other targets – either individually, simultaneously, or by adopting a constitutional BBR – do not perform better than those that comply exclusively with the budget balance rule. Finally, our results suggest that strong fiscal rules are not necessary to achieve better fiscal discipline.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103664"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143386807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Borrowing constraints, financial frictions, misallocation and GDP per worker
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103660
Amaia Iza, Ibai Ostolozaga
{"title":"Borrowing constraints, financial frictions, misallocation and GDP per worker","authors":"Amaia Iza,&nbsp;Ibai Ostolozaga","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103660","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103660","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The aim of this paper is to analyze the effect of relaxing borrowing constraints taking into account that firms may be facing either earnings-based or asset-based borrowing constraints on some aggregates such GDP per worker or TFP. We also analyze the impact on those aggregates of increasing the proportion of firms with earnings-based borrowing constraints. Using the World Bank Enterprise Survey, we show that the proportion of firms whose loans require collateral is lower in those countries whose bankruptcy laws facilitate reorganization. In addition, we show that there are no significant differences in the median/average contract-enforcement scores between countries where bankruptcy laws facilitate reorganization and countries where they do not, and that there is a significant negative link between the contract-enforcement score and the collateral-to-loan ratio. Furthermore, we also show that there is a significant positive correlation between the average proportion of firms in a country whose credit does not require collateral (with cash flow-based debt) with GDP per worker and TFP, but not with the debt-to-GDP ratio. We build a model that takes into account country characteristics in the proportion of firms whose loans require collateral and also in the average collateral-to-loan ratio. We find that policies aimed at increasing the proportion of firms that face borrowing constraints based on earnings rather than on assets, so as to reduce the misallocation of debt, may be as important as those aimed at reducing the collateral-to-loan ratio.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103660"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of the Public Sector Purchase Programme on lending to SMEs
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103659
Vlad Skovorodov , Rui Silva
{"title":"The impact of the Public Sector Purchase Programme on lending to SMEs","authors":"Vlad Skovorodov ,&nbsp;Rui Silva","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103659","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103659","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impact of the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) between 2015 and 2018 on lending volumes in the Eurozone. We find a connection between purchases under the PSPP and: (i) lending volumes on types of loans mainly obtained by SMEs; (ii) loans below 1 million euros during the expansion phase of the program until the end of 2016, and loans above 1 million euros in its contraction phase; (iii) substantial changes in lending volumes in economies with high levels of public debt and distressed financial systems, and; (iv) types of loans mainly obtained by SMEs in more resilient economies. These findings point to the effectiveness of the credit channel as a transmission mechanism of unconventional monetary policy and support the decision of the ECB to reactivate the program at the end of 2019.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103659"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflation and entry costs in a monetary search model
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103663
Ryoji Hiraguchi , Keiichiro Kobayashi
{"title":"Inflation and entry costs in a monetary search model","authors":"Ryoji Hiraguchi ,&nbsp;Keiichiro Kobayashi","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103663","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103663","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we construct a variant of the Lagos–Wright monetary model in which both buyers and sellers optimally decide whether to enter decentralized market by paying fixed entry costs. In the decentralized market, the sellers produce the intermediate inputs which are necessary to produce the general good traded in the centralized market. We show that the Friedman rule of setting nominal interest rate to zero may not be optimal. The optimal inflation rate is derived explicitly for specific functional forms. It is shown that the optimal inflation rate is lower for lower buyer entry costs, because the lower entry costs generate the buyer’s congestion leading to lower benefit from holding money, which must be balanced by lower cost of money holdings. It is also shown that the optimal inflation is lower for higher seller entry costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103663"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Computerizing households and the role of technology shocks in consumer durables
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103662
Seunghoon Na , Hyunseung Oh
{"title":"Computerizing households and the role of technology shocks in consumer durables","authors":"Seunghoon Na ,&nbsp;Hyunseung Oh","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103662","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103662","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We quantitatively assess the cyclical importance of technology shocks to consumer durables in light of the widespread adoption of consumer electronics such as smartphones and tablets. By estimating a business-cycle model of consumer durables with IT-specific technology, we find that technology shocks accounted for more than half of the variation in consumer IT goods and were a key driver of the 2001–2007 boom in consumer durable expenditures. Our estimation results suggest a larger role for technology shocks in household expenditures on consumer durables than previously recognized. In standard models, however, these shocks have a more limited impact on GDP dynamics, as consumer durables do not contribute to productive capital.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103662"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Consumption responses to inheritances: The role of durable goods
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103661
Ignacio Belloc , José Alberto Molina , Jorge Velilla
{"title":"Consumption responses to inheritances: The role of durable goods","authors":"Ignacio Belloc ,&nbsp;José Alberto Molina ,&nbsp;Jorge Velilla","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103661","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103661","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the impact of inheritances, a key component in household wealth accumulation, on consumption. Specifically, we investigate how inheritances influence household consumption growth, distinguishing durable and nondurable goods. In doing so, we use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics spanning 2005–2019. The results reveal a positive effect of inheritances on household consumption of durable goods. Such an effect occurs immediately after receiving the inheritance and its average magnitude is about 27 %. Estimates also reveal that large inheritances significantly impact the consumption growth of durables, but also of non-durables, while small inheritances show no effects. Consumption responses are stronger among liquidity and borrowing constrained households, aligning with life-cycle models of consumption behavior. Insights inform planners by highlighting varied effects of inheritances on household consumption, particularly emphasizing the nuanced impact of inheritance size.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103661"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal patent policy and wealth inequality in a Schumpeterian economy
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103656
Angus C. Chu , Chih-Hsing Liao
{"title":"Optimal patent policy and wealth inequality in a Schumpeterian economy","authors":"Angus C. Chu ,&nbsp;Chih-Hsing Liao","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103656","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103656","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does wealth inequality affect optimal patent policy? This study develops a Schumpeterian growth model with heterogeneous households to explore this question. Our model features a general innovation specification that nests two common specifications: (a) the <em>knowledge-driven</em> specification that uses R&amp;D labor, and (b) the <em>lab-equipment</em> specification that uses final output for R&amp;D. Under the knowledge-driven specification, all households prefer the same level of patent protection. However, under the lab-equipment specification, less wealthy households prefer weaker patent protection, so an unequal distribution of wealth reduces optimal patent protection and economic growth. Under the general innovation specification, strengthening patent protection has an inverted-U effect on innovation, in contrast to the positive effect under the two special cases. More importantly, an unequal wealth distribution continues to reduce optimal patent protection. Calibrating the model to US data, we find that eliminating wealth inequality raises economic growth by about 0.5% via stronger patent protection.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103656"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Information content in yield curve dynamics: Implications for monetary policy 收益率曲线动态中的信息内容：对货币政策的影响
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103658
Youngjin Hwang
{"title":"Information content in yield curve dynamics: Implications for monetary policy","authors":"Youngjin Hwang","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103658","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103658","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the information content of yield curve dynamics in the context of monetary policy using time-varying macro VARs augmented with three yield curve factors (i.e., level, slope, and curvature). By utilizing contemporaneous co-movements between short-term interest rates and these factors, we identify multiple shocks related to monetary policy: two news shocks (supply and demand), a forward guidance shock, and an inflation-targeting shock. We find distinct differences in the dynamic responses of output and prices across shocks as well as over time. We highlight the role of each yield curve factor, in particular the curvature factor in a forward guidance shock, in generating the results across shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103658"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142759816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The partisanship of a central banker 中央银行家的党派主义
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103657
Fabrizio Carmignani
{"title":"The partisanship of a central banker","authors":"Fabrizio Carmignani","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103657","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103657","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Even if formally established as independent, central banks may still be subject to partisan influences. The paper uses a simple new-Keynesian framework to model these influences as <em>quiescence</em> (i.e. when the central bank aligns with the ideological preferences of the incumbent government) or <em>demurral</em> (i.e. when the central bank moves away from the ideological preferences of the incumbent). The partisanship of the central bank then depends on which of these two prevails. The empirical analysis shows that different patterns of quiescence and demurral occur in different countries at different times. There is however also evidence that in some circumstances the conduct of monetary policy is non-partisan; that is, neither quiescence nor demurral prevails.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103657"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142700019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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