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Intensive and extensive margins of labor adjustment with non-regular employment 劳动调整的密集和粗放边际与非正规就业
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103704
Tetsuaki Takano
{"title":"Intensive and extensive margins of labor adjustment with non-regular employment","authors":"Tetsuaki Takano","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103704","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103704","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates labor adjustments in firms over the business cycle, focusing on intensive and extensive margins, including regular and non-regular employment. I present a set of stylized facts that the intensive margin and job heterogeneity matter for labor adjustments. I develop a search-matching model incorporating these aspects. The propagation effects of TFP shocks on the labor market are qualitatively consistent with empirical findings. Moreover, the model realistically simulates macroeconomic volatility. This volatility is generated by the introduction of the intensive margin, while that of non-regular jobs has little impact on amplifying fluctuations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103704"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary policy under fiscal stress: A forward-looking analysis of fiscal dominance 财政压力下的货币政策：财政主导权的前瞻性分析
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103701
Donna Faye E. Bajaro , Jaqueson K. Galimberti , Irfan A. Qureshi
{"title":"Monetary policy under fiscal stress: A forward-looking analysis of fiscal dominance","authors":"Donna Faye E. Bajaro ,&nbsp;Jaqueson K. Galimberti ,&nbsp;Irfan A. Qureshi","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103701","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103701","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Subdued economic activity and low tax revenues, especially during crises, drive borrowing and increase public debt. Central banks may face pressure to deviate from policy targets during these periods to ease the debt burden. Under fiscal dominance, debt sustainability relies on low interest rates and high inflation rather than consolidation. This paper empirically tests the presence of fiscal dominance using forward-looking Taylor rules and data from 52 countries over three decades. The results detect fiscal dominance, with stronger effects in “de jure” inflation-targeting emerging economies with low central bank independence, especially those without debt rules and with high debt-to-GDP ratios. Emerging economies with high foreign currency-denominated debt are further affected by exchange rate debt valuation effects, and fiscal dominance leads their central banks to follow exchange rate stabilization policies. Since 2022–23, interest rate responses to fiscal imbalances have strengthened, posing challenges for future policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103701"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144860630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can you improve upon the GDP forecasts of professional forecasters using information about monetary policy? 你能利用有关货币政策的信息改进专业预测者对GDP的预测吗？
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103717
Dean Croushore
{"title":"Can you improve upon the GDP forecasts of professional forecasters using information about monetary policy?","authors":"Dean Croushore","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103717","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103717","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, I examine the forecast errors of macroeconomic forecasters to see whether or not their forecasts are efficiently using information about monetary policy. The goal is to investigate, using real-time data, previous research that has found inefficiency in forecasts with respect to monetary policy. I use a real-time data set to investigate the relationship between GDP forecast errors and changes in monetary policy both in-sample and with out-of-sample methods. Out-of-sample results show that exploiting inefficiency is difficult in real time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103717"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145004414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The role of MPC heterogeneity for fiscal policy in the euro area 货币政策委员会异质性在欧元区财政政策中的作用
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103719
Nicolas Albacete , Pirmin Fessler , Atanas Pekanov
{"title":"The role of MPC heterogeneity for fiscal policy in the euro area","authors":"Nicolas Albacete ,&nbsp;Pirmin Fessler ,&nbsp;Atanas Pekanov","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103719","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103719","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We assess the implications of heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) for fiscal policy in the euro area. Extending the seminal work of Jappelli and Pistaferri (2014), we document an average MPC of 0.46, with significant variation across countries, household characteristics, and financial positions, including cash-on-hand as well as liquid and illiquid wealth. The mean MPC ranges from 0.33 in the Netherlands to 0.57 in Lithuania. Households with lower cash-on-hand exhibit higher MPCs on average. Policy experiments demonstrate that accounting for MPC heterogeneity enhances the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating GDP growth compared with assuming uniform MPCs. We provide a pandemic-related example: a fiscal stimulus programme targeted at a contact-intensive sector with higher MPCs on average, which increases aggregate consumption by 1.70%, while the same programme targeted at a less contact-intensive sector increases consumption by only 1.17%. Finally, we provide moments to support the calibration of Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian models such as the ratio of household assets-to-GDP in the euro area, which stands at 689%.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103719"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145019556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Consumer inflation expectations and local price changes: Learning from experience 消费者通胀预期与当地物价变动：从经验中学习
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103725
Tomasz Łyziak , Michael Pedersen , Ewa Stanisławska
{"title":"Consumer inflation expectations and local price changes: Learning from experience","authors":"Tomasz Łyziak ,&nbsp;Michael Pedersen ,&nbsp;Ewa Stanisławska","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103725","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103725","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the formation of inflation expectations among U.S. consumers by examining the extent to which individuals are influenced by local price fluctuations when reporting their short-term inflation expectations. Using individual-level survey data and a learning-from-experience framework, the analysis shows that expectations are shaped not only by national inflation but also by local inflation experiences. This result, confirmed using inflation data from both Census regions and metropolitan areas, is robust across alternative model specifications and estimation strategies. Interestingly, the influence of local inflation is strongest among first-time survey respondents and diminishes with survey tenure. This tenure effect indicates that expectation formation evolves as consumers become more familiar with the survey, potentially reflecting increased attention to broader economic information. Overall, we identify an additional driver of consumer inflation expectations related to local inflation developments and largely absent from the previous literature that should be controlled for in empirical models of expectation formation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103725"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145519740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What do we know about estimating government spending multipliers? 关于估算政府支出乘数，我们知道些什么？
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103721
Taewoong Jo , Jihye Kang , Joonyoung Hur
{"title":"What do we know about estimating government spending multipliers?","authors":"Taewoong Jo ,&nbsp;Jihye Kang ,&nbsp;Joonyoung Hur","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103721","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103721","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the DSGE model as the data-generating process (DGP), we assess how three key modeling choices influence government spending multiplier estimates: (1) the econometric method—vector autoregressions (VARs) versus local projections (LPs); (2) the identification strategy for government spending shocks—such as recursive, Blanchard–Perotti (BP), or forecast error (FE) methods; and (3) the variable transformation—log versus Gordon–Krenn (GK). Our results demonstrate that even when using the same data set, these choices can lead to substantially different multiplier estimates. Furthermore, we find that the choice of econometric method should align with the shock identification strategy and targeted estimation horizon. For the short-run, LP method produces the most accurate government spending multipliers when the true shock sequence is known. When there is no strong candidate for the shock, BP-type shocks are preferable, with both VAR and LP methods being more suitable for short-run analysis, while VAR models yield more reliable estimates for long-run horizons. Additionally, using the GK transformation instead of the log transformation reduces the upward bias commonly observed in VAR and LP estimates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103721"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Saving behavior and the intergenerational allocation of leisure time 储蓄行为与休闲时间代际分配
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103722
Fabio Cerina , Xavier Raurich
{"title":"Saving behavior and the intergenerational allocation of leisure time","authors":"Fabio Cerina ,&nbsp;Xavier Raurich","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103722","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103722","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how cross-country cultural differences in the intergenerational allocation of leisure time affect savings and working time. To do so, we consider a life-cycle model in which leisure and consumption are complementary and individuals decide on the intertemporal allocation of consumption, on leisure time and on its allocation among individuals of the same generation or of a different one. The latter decision margin determines the equilibrium utility services from leisure that individuals obtain in each life time period. We show that economies in which older individuals obtain higher leisure services have higher savings rates, higher stock of capital per worker and higher fraction of time worked. Using data from the World Value Survey, we provide empirical support to these findings. Our results suggest that cultural differences in leisure allocation play a structural role in shaping cross-country differences in savings and labor supply.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103722"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145266365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal multipliers, trend inflation, and endogenous price stickiness: Evidence from the U.S. 财政乘数、趋势通胀和内生价格粘性：来自美国的证据
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103728
Ilya Gulenkov
{"title":"Fiscal multipliers, trend inflation, and endogenous price stickiness: Evidence from the U.S.","authors":"Ilya Gulenkov","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103728","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103728","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A remarkably protracted surge in inflation in the U.S. has had a profound impact on the price- and wage-setting behavior. These changes suggest that the economy could have entered a regime characterized by higher trend inflation. While the impact of trend inflation on monetary policy effectiveness is well-studied, the effects on fiscal policy transmission has been largely overlooked. This study analyzes the fiscal transmission under different inflation regimes. The empirical analysis using state-dependent local projections reveals that in the post-WWII U.S. history fiscal multipliers in a high-inflation regime have been larger. This effect is driven by a crowding-in of consumption, which does not happen in the low-inflation state. We rationalize our findings withing a Markov-switching New Keynesian model with endogenous price stickiness and non-separable preferences. The model demonstrates that when different degree of monetary accommodation interacts with the switching mechanism, consumption is crowded-out in a low-inflation regime and crowded-in when trend inflation is high.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103728"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145519739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Efficiency wages, consumption inequality and self-fulfilling business cycles 效率工资、消费不平等和自我实现的商业周期
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103716
Wei Dai , Mark Weder , Bo Zhang
{"title":"Efficiency wages, consumption inequality and self-fulfilling business cycles","authors":"Wei Dai ,&nbsp;Mark Weder ,&nbsp;Bo Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103716","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103716","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a model of business cycles for an economy that is characterized by involuntary unemployment and being dependent on energy imports. The presence of both factors increases aggregate volatility in a well-defined way: empirically reasonable degrees of income insurance and cost shares of imported energy generate equilibrium indeterminacy making the economy potentially subject to sunspots. The underlying force for this result is the heterogeneity in consumption levels of the employed and unemployed individuals. We estimate the model and find that its specification with indeterminacy has a marginal data density significantly higher than the determinacy version for the Great Moderation period as well as since the Great Recession. We back out a series for non-fundamental changes in expectations. This series of sunspots is highly correlated with a common measure of confidence and, through the lens of our theory, these sunspot shocks have played a non-trivial role in driving the U.S. business cycle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103716"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144920201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Capital account liberalization, production heterogeneity, and belief-driven fluctuations in financial-constrained economies 资本账户自由化、生产异质性和金融约束经济体中信念驱动的波动
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103715
Takuma Kunieda , Kazuo Nishimura
{"title":"Capital account liberalization, production heterogeneity, and belief-driven fluctuations in financial-constrained economies","authors":"Takuma Kunieda ,&nbsp;Kazuo Nishimura","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103715","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103715","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To investigate the macroeconomic effects of capital account liberalization, we apply a dynamic general equilibrium model with two production sectors. In contrast to the literature on belief-driven sunspot fluctuations caused by production externalities, our model does not assume any production externalities. In our model, agents face financial constraints and production heterogeneity. The financial constraints and agents’ production heterogeneity are sources of dynamic inefficiency. Although indeterminacy of equilibrium and belief-driven sunspot fluctuations never occur in the closed economy, dynamic inefficiency combined with a negative foreign asset in the steady state produces indeterminacy in the small open economy if financial constraints are fully relaxed under the condition that the investment goods sector is more labor intensive than the consumption goods sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103715"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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