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Large firms and the cyclicality of US labour productivity 大型企业与美国劳动生产率的周期性
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103643
Joshua Brault, Hashmat Khan
{"title":"Large firms and the cyclicality of US labour productivity","authors":"Joshua Brault,&nbsp;Hashmat Khan","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103643","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103643","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present novel stylized facts on the declining cyclicality of labour productivity for large firms. Changes in their output-labour productivity correlations mirror those in aggregate US data. Large firms account for 88% of the aggregate labour productivity-output correlation post-1985. The decline in cyclicality aligns with their increased use of extensive margin adjustments, such as hiring more workers. For a 1% output increase, large firms hire 75 additional workers pre-1985, compared to 90 post-1985. Our findings are relevant to the literature on the role of large firms in US business cycles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 103643"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142442078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wealth in the utility function, consumption subsidy, and long-run growth and welfare 效用函数中的财富、消费补贴以及长期增长和福利
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103644
Qichun He
{"title":"Wealth in the utility function, consumption subsidy, and long-run growth and welfare","authors":"Qichun He","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103644","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103644","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the effect of consumption subsidies on long-run growth and welfare in a Schumpeterian model with the spirit of capitalism (SOC)—wealth in the utility function. It finds that consumption subsidy promotes (reduces) long-run growth and welfare when the spirit of capitalism is weak (strong). By contrast, consumption subsidy has no effect on long-run growth in the Ramsey model of capital accumulation, whereas its effect on the level of consumption and capital stock also depends on the strength of the SOC. Consumption subsidy decreases growth in the AK model with the SOC. In quantitative analysis, we find that when the ratio of consumption subsidy to total consumption increases from 0 to 10%, long-run growth increases by about 0.044 (0.1) percentage points in China (the U.S.), and this effect decreases with the strength of the SOC. Moreover, labor tax, capital tax, and income tax are also studied and compared.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 103644"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142421980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is deflation cause for panic? Evidence from the National Banking era 通货紧缩会引起恐慌吗？国家银行时代的证据
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103641
Casey Pender
{"title":"Is deflation cause for panic? Evidence from the National Banking era","authors":"Casey Pender","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103641","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103641","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the relationship between deflation, real output, and bank panics in the United States during the National Banking era from 1868 to 1913, a period marked by frequent deflationary episodes and many bank panics. Using a structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions, I distinguish between deflation as part of negative aggregate demand shocks and deflation as part of positive aggregate supply shocks. My findings indicate that negative aggregate demand shocks are associated with an increased likelihood of bank panics, while positive aggregate supply shocks are not. I then bolster these findings with case studies of the major bank panics of 1873, 1893, and 1907, analyzing stock data, bank clearing data, and narrative evidence. Combined, these results suggest that unexpected declines in nominal income, rather than deflation itself, contribute to financial stress, aligning with recent theoretical work.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 103641"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142327267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Traditional output dynamics: A structural perspective 传统的产出动态：结构视角
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103640
Christopher Malikane
{"title":"Traditional output dynamics: A structural perspective","authors":"Christopher Malikane","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103640","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103640","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We provide theoretical underpinnings to the traditional IS curve by using the concept of basic and non-basic goods and services in the consumption basket. An extended version of this IS curve incorporates the effects of functional income distribution by appealing to rule-of-thumb behavior. An empirical analysis for both emerging and advanced economies shows that this IS curve does not suffer from the \"IS puzzle,\" a weakness that affects its new Keynesian counterpart, when a measure of the nominal interest rate is used. The interest rate negatively and significantly affects output. Secondly, the second-order term typically specified in the output dynamics does not arise from structural consumption behavior. Thirdly, although we find significant rule-of-thumb behavior in that the labor share is statistically significant, optimal behavior dominates economies. Lastly, basics make up an overwhelming component of the consumption basket, which explains the sluggish response of output to shocks. The implication is that there is a need to extend the basic two-equation model into a 3-equation system by adding the dynamics of the labor share.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 103640"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070424000557/pdfft?md5=118f5de1b764d624e5fec6ab519cc2f2&pid=1-s2.0-S0164070424000557-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142239671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A bank-level analysis of interest rate pass-through in South Africa 对南非利率转嫁的银行层面分析
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103639
Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo , Daan Steenkamp , Rossouw van Jaarsveld
{"title":"A bank-level analysis of interest rate pass-through in South Africa","authors":"Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo ,&nbsp;Daan Steenkamp ,&nbsp;Rossouw van Jaarsveld","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103639","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103639","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study the pass-through of policy rate hikes and cuts to household and corporate lending and deposit interest rates in South Africa over the period January 2009 to December 2020. We show that rate hikes are typically passed through to mortgage interest rates completely while rate cuts are not. This asymmetry is more prevalent for household than corporate mortgages. Pass-through to household and corporate call deposit interest rates is typically complete, but cheque account interest rates are highly sticky and experience weak pass-through. Our results indicate that banks’ pass-through decisions often impose greater costs on households than firms, and may blunt the stimulatory effect of rate cuts by weakening their impact on debt servicing costs and the remuneration of deposit balances.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 103639"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142233687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Job search intensity and wage rigidity in business cycles 商业周期中的求职强度和工资刚性
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103624
Yuki Uemura
{"title":"Job search intensity and wage rigidity in business cycles","authors":"Yuki Uemura","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103624","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103624","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Search intensity, as well as the aggregate economic condition, is a crucial factor that determines unemployed workers’ success in job searches. Their search intensity is predicted to be procyclical in standard search and matching models. However, many empirical studies show that search intensity is countercyclical. This study examines the job search behavior of unemployed workers over business cycles using a search and matching model that incorporates wage rigidity and a generalized matching function. Unlike previous studies, the proposed model can generate both procyclical and countercyclical search intensities by introducing wage rigidity. This study calibrates the model to the U.S. economy and provides various impulse response analyses. The numerical exercises show that the model successfully and simultaneously reproduces countercyclical search efforts and sizable labor market fluctuations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 103624"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142011153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Jobless recoveries and time variation in labor markets 失业复苏与劳动力市场的时间变化
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103623
Irina Panovska , Licheng Zhang
{"title":"Jobless recoveries and time variation in labor markets","authors":"Irina Panovska ,&nbsp;Licheng Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103623","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103623","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study the nature of changes in the relationship between the labor market and output by using a broader set of labor market variables and a flexible time-varying-parameter vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TVP-SV). Overall, the TVP-SV model fits the labor market data well and has good predictive performance. We find heterogeneity both in the timing and the type of changes in the relationship between labor market variables and output. We find evidence that the relationship between output and employment growth, hours, vacancies, and wages has changed over time, with employment, wages, and vacancies being less responsive over time. In contrast, the responses of hours and part-time employment to output have become stronger over time, indicating a shift towards utilization of the intensive margin and towards utilizing more flexible labor inputs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 103623"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141848940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effects of a money-financed fiscal stimulus under fiscal stress 财政压力下货币融资财政刺激的效果
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103621
Hao Jin , Junfeng Wang
{"title":"The effects of a money-financed fiscal stimulus under fiscal stress","authors":"Hao Jin ,&nbsp;Junfeng Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103621","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103621","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper studies the local determinacy requirements and the effects of a money-financed fiscal stimulus under fiscal stress in a canonical New Keynesian model. We consider three alternative monetary policies and find that the money-financed policy adopted in Galí (2020) to keep zero-debt-increase (ZDI) leads to an unsustainable debt path, while introducing a debt growth target restores stability. A debt-targeting rule (DT) generates smaller instantaneous multipliers and larger cumulative multipliers with respect to the ZDI, whereas a mixed-targeting rule (MT) that takes both debt and inflation into consideration exaggerates the trade-off between short-run and long-run multipliers. Deficit financing decomposition shows that, relative to seigniorage, inflation and changes in the stochastic discount factor play more important roles. Moreover, welfare analysis implies that a sluggish money financing scheme causes extra welfare loss. Finally, we quantify the effects of money-financed fiscal measures in a COVID recession.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 103621"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141949677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Entrepreneurship, growth and productivity with bubbles 有泡沫的创业、增长和生产力
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103622
Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard , Xavier Raurich , Thomas Seegmuller
{"title":"Entrepreneurship, growth and productivity with bubbles","authors":"Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard ,&nbsp;Xavier Raurich ,&nbsp;Thomas Seegmuller","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103622","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103622","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Entrepreneurship, growth and total factor productivity are larger when asset prices are high and decline during financial crises. We explain these facts using a growth model with financial bubbles in which individuals have heterogeneous wages and returns on productive investment. Heterogeneity separates individuals between savers and entrepreneurs. Savers buy financial assets, which are deposits or a financial bubble. Entrepreneurs incur in a start-up cost and borrow to invest in productive capital. The bubble provides liquidities to credit-constrained entrepreneurs. These liquidities increase investment, growth and entrepreneurship. Finally, the bubble may increase productivity when the return of each entrepreneur’s investment is positively correlated with her previous income.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 103622"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141954409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Central bank digital currency and financial inclusion 中央银行数字货币与普惠金融
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103620
Brandon Joel Tan
{"title":"Central bank digital currency and financial inclusion","authors":"Brandon Joel Tan","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103620","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103620","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper develops a model to incorporate the impact of financial inclusion to study the implications of issuing a CBDC. In a “two-tier” model where banks distribute CBDC, CBDCs have the potential to increase the supply of deposits by incentivizing the unbanked to open bank accounts (offsetting potential flows from deposits to CBDCs), boosting overall lending. This is more likely when CBDC is valuable as a means of payment, provides anonymity in payments, and/or offers remuneration, especially in developing countries where the size and relative wealth of the previously unbanked population is large. CBDC can be optimal for household welfare even when overall lending decreases as households benefit from the value of using CBDC for payments and as an alternative “safe” savings vehicle.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 103620"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141607348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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