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Entrepreneurship, growth and productivity with bubbles 有泡沫的创业、增长和生产力
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103622
Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard , Xavier Raurich , Thomas Seegmuller
{"title":"Entrepreneurship, growth and productivity with bubbles","authors":"Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard ,&nbsp;Xavier Raurich ,&nbsp;Thomas Seegmuller","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103622","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103622","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Entrepreneurship, growth and total factor productivity are larger when asset prices are high and decline during financial crises. We explain these facts using a growth model with financial bubbles in which individuals have heterogeneous wages and returns on productive investment. Heterogeneity separates individuals between savers and entrepreneurs. Savers buy financial assets, which are deposits or a financial bubble. Entrepreneurs incur in a start-up cost and borrow to invest in productive capital. The bubble provides liquidities to credit-constrained entrepreneurs. These liquidities increase investment, growth and entrepreneurship. Finally, the bubble may increase productivity when the return of each entrepreneur’s investment is positively correlated with her previous income.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 103622"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141954409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Central bank digital currency and financial inclusion 中央银行数字货币与普惠金融
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103620
Brandon Joel Tan
{"title":"Central bank digital currency and financial inclusion","authors":"Brandon Joel Tan","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103620","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103620","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper develops a model to incorporate the impact of financial inclusion to study the implications of issuing a CBDC. In a “two-tier” model where banks distribute CBDC, CBDCs have the potential to increase the supply of deposits by incentivizing the unbanked to open bank accounts (offsetting potential flows from deposits to CBDCs), boosting overall lending. This is more likely when CBDC is valuable as a means of payment, provides anonymity in payments, and/or offers remuneration, especially in developing countries where the size and relative wealth of the previously unbanked population is large. CBDC can be optimal for household welfare even when overall lending decreases as households benefit from the value of using CBDC for payments and as an alternative “safe” savings vehicle.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 103620"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141607348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Who gets the flow? Financial globalisation and wealth inequality 谁在流动？金融全球化与财富不平等
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103618
Simone Arrigoni
{"title":"Who gets the flow? Financial globalisation and wealth inequality","authors":"Simone Arrigoni","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103618","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103618","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper studies whether the advent of financial globalisation has contributed to increasing wealth inequality in the United States, France, and the United Kingdom. I find that (i) positive changes in the benchmark measure of financial globalisation are associated with a positive change in the top 1% and 10% wealth shares and a negative change in the wealth share of the bottom 50% of the distribution. This is equivalent to an average gain of $1 trillion for the top 10% and $1.6 trillion for the top 1%, over the period of interest. (ii) Portfolio equities and financial derivatives appear to be the driving components behind the increase in wealth shares. (iii) The implied change in wealth shares is driven by the accumulation of new financial wealth (flow) rather than the valuation of existing one. (iv) The dynamic is strengthened when a banking crisis hits the economy, possibly because people at the top of the distribution can recover their lost wealth faster than people at the bottom. The main finding is robust to an expanded country sample, albeit reducing the historical context beyond the scope of this paper.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 103618"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070424000338/pdfft?md5=75f97f6c921966ae27dd10380adb3b20&pid=1-s2.0-S0164070424000338-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141592709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What's eating macro? 什么在吃宏观？
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103619
Peter McAdam
{"title":"What's eating macro?","authors":"Peter McAdam","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103619","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103619","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The starting point for this article is a review of the book <em>A Practical Guide to Macroeconomics</em> by Jeremy Rudd. The book argues that macroeconomics, as practiced in academia and filtered through to policy institutions, has provided a highly imperfect guide for how policy works and should work in practice. This review assesses the arguments outlined in the book, discusses some issues absent from the book, and addresses more general themes that arise in the interface between academic and policy macro.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 103619"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141607347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do fiscal rules shape private-sector investment decisions? 财政规则会影响私营部门的投资决策吗？
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103617
Rayangnewendé Frans Sawadogo
{"title":"Do fiscal rules shape private-sector investment decisions?","authors":"Rayangnewendé Frans Sawadogo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103617","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103617","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate whether fiscal rules impact private domestic investment. Using data spanning 100 advanced and developing countries over the period 1990–2019 and applying the entropy balancing method, we reveal that implementing fiscal rules significantly improves private-sector investment. This finding is robust to a wide set of economic and econometric tests. Moreover, we perform a range of heterogeneity tests and find that the effect of fiscal rules only applies in developing countries and is amplified in good times and in countries with a strong fiscal stance. However, the benefits of fiscal rules are mitigated in resource-rich countries and during economic crises. Finally, we explore the underlying mechanisms and show that fiscal discipline, a composition effect fostering public investment, and macroeconomic stability are three driving forces that produce the stimulative effect of fiscal rules.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 103617"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141482511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What growth policies protect the environment? A two-engine growth model 什么样的增长政策能保护环境？双引擎增长模式
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103614
Chu-chuan Cheng , Ping-ho Chen , Hsun Chu , Yi-chiuan Wang
{"title":"What growth policies protect the environment? A two-engine growth model","authors":"Chu-chuan Cheng ,&nbsp;Ping-ho Chen ,&nbsp;Hsun Chu ,&nbsp;Yi-chiuan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103614","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper compares the effects of patent protection and subsidy policies on growth and the environment in a model where technology innovation and capital accumulation are both engines of growth. Pollution is a by-product of the intermediate goods, and can be reduced by public abatement activities. The results show that, compared to subsidies, stronger patent protection is a more promising tool for achieving a double dividend, i.e., simultaneously enhancing growth and improving the environment. By contrast, a uniform increase in the subsidy rate on R&amp;D and capital stimulates growth but harms the environment, implying a trade-off relationship between growth and the environment. For sector-specific subsidies, an R&amp;D subsidy is superior to a capital subsidy in terms of environmental protection, but this superiority fades away if the productivity of abatement labor or the public abatement expenditure is higher.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 103614"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141312970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effects of monetary policy across fiscal regimes 不同财政制度下货币政策的影响
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103616
Roben Kloosterman , Dennis Bonam , Koen van der Veer
{"title":"The effects of monetary policy across fiscal regimes","authors":"Roben Kloosterman ,&nbsp;Dennis Bonam ,&nbsp;Koen van der Veer","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103616","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103616","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How do the effects of monetary policy depend on the fiscal policy stance? We aim to answer this question using a panel smooth transition local projection model for the euro area. We find that an expansionary monetary policy shock raises inflation and output, but only when fiscal policy is also expansionary. In a regime of contractionary fiscal policy, the responses to a monetary easing are insignificant or negative. Similarly, a monetary tightening only reduces inflation and output when accompanied by contractionary fiscal policy. These results are robust to several alternative model specifications and underline the importance of the fiscal stance for the effects of monetary policy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 103616"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141314378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rising allowances, rising rates — Can growth arise through business income tax reform despite government debt limit? 免征额增加，税率上升--尽管政府债务受限，商业所得税改革能否带来增长？
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-05-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103606
Marius Clemens , Werner Röger
{"title":"Rising allowances, rising rates — Can growth arise through business income tax reform despite government debt limit?","authors":"Marius Clemens ,&nbsp;Werner Röger","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103606","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103606","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The system of business income taxation consists of two instruments, namely a statutory tax rate and a depreciation allowance on investment. We will show in this paper that by acting on both instruments simultaneously it is possible to achieve both a growth and a fiscal net revenue target even in cases when a trade-off prevails when each instrument is used individually.</p><p>As will be shown in the paper, depreciation allowances have a more favorable trade-off between growth and net revenue in the long run compared to statutory business income tax rates. Thus, by rising depreciation allowances and the statutory tax rate at the same time, it is possible to both increase growth and fiscal space.</p><p>In a model simulation calibrated to the German economy and tax system, an increase of the tax depreciation rate for all investments from 10% to 25% leads to a more than 2 percent GDP increase and more than 6 percent higher private investments in total. Whereas GDP and investment rise steadily over time, the government budget becomes negative in the short run. In the long run, the sign of the fiscal budget effect is determined by the indexation of government consumption to GDP. However, according to our findings, slight adjustments in the statutory business income tax rate could balance out these deficits and generate additional fiscal space.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 103606"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140950508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal robust monetary and fiscal policy under uncertainty on the lower bound 下限不确定情况下的最优稳健货币和财政政策
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-05-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103605
Gülserim Özcan , Guido Traficante
{"title":"Optimal robust monetary and fiscal policy under uncertainty on the lower bound","authors":"Gülserim Özcan ,&nbsp;Guido Traficante","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103605","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103605","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper studies robust policy when the policymaker has Knightian uncertainty about the exact position of the effective lower bound (ELB). First, we characterize optimal discretionary policy when a benevolent policymaker controls the nominal interest rate and the level of government spending. Compared to the full information case, an uncertainty-averse policymaker overestimates the level of the ELB, thereby triggering a more aggressive reduction in the nominal interest rate prior to the liquidity trap. Furthermore, the anticipation of a larger increase in public spending improves the trade-off between inflation and the output gap, and dampens the perceived worst-case level of the ELB. As a result, a less conservative fiscal stabilization is desirable to address the uncertainty concerns of the policymaker by partially substituting for the nominal interest rate at the ELB. Moreover, an inflation-conservative policymaker mitigates the impact of uncertainty on equilibrium outcomes even better than a fiscally active policymaker.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 103605"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141053642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Central bank objectives, monetary policy rules, and limited information 中央银行的目标、货币政策规则和有限信息
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-05-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103604
Jonathan Benchimol
{"title":"Central bank objectives, monetary policy rules, and limited information","authors":"Jonathan Benchimol","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103604","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103604","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Since the Global Financial Crisis, a lively debate has emerged regarding the monetary policy rule the central bank of a small open economy (SOE) follows and should follow. By identifying the monetary policy rule that best fits historical data and minimizes central bank loss functions, this study contributes to this debate. We estimate a medium-scale micro-founded SOE model under various monetary policy rules using Israeli data from 1994 to 2019. Our results show that simple inflation targeting (IT) rules are more appropriate than hybrid rules targeting the exchange rate. Given central bank goals, shock uncertainty, and limited information, nominal income targeting rules may have been more desirable over the last three decades than IT rules.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"80 ","pages":"Article 103604"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140914421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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