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Why old-age poverty matters: Evidence from consumption responses to income shocks 老年贫困为何重要：来自收入冲击下消费反应的证据
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103718
Yunho Cho , Jiseob Kim , Julie Kim
{"title":"Why old-age poverty matters: Evidence from consumption responses to income shocks","authors":"Yunho Cho ,&nbsp;Jiseob Kim ,&nbsp;Julie Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103718","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103718","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates consumption responses to idiosyncratic income shocks, focusing on the elderly in Korea—an economy with the highest old-age poverty rate among developed nations. Using a semi-structural model of income and consumption dynamics alongside household survey data from Korea, the U.S., and Australia, we find that Korean elderly households exhibit consumption responses to permanent income shocks that are 30% points higher than those of middle-aged households in Korea and 57% points higher than those of elderly households in the U.S. and Australia. These large consumption responses are primarily driven by the low wealth elderly, who lack sufficient self-insurance. Our findings emphasize the significant role of poverty, which remains highly persistent throughout the life cycle in Korea, in undermining the elderly’s ability to maintain consumption insurance, thereby deteriorating their welfare. Furthermore, our results highlight the critical role of government transfers in providing consumption insurance for the elderly.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103718"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does monetary policy impact innovation? Evidence from Australian Administrative Data 货币政策会影响创新吗？来自澳大利亚行政数据的证据
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103706
Omer Majeed , Jonathan Hambur , Robert Breunig
{"title":"Does monetary policy impact innovation? Evidence from Australian Administrative Data","authors":"Omer Majeed ,&nbsp;Jonathan Hambur ,&nbsp;Robert Breunig","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103706","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103706","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine whether monetary policy affects innovative activity and productivity in Australia. As a small open economy that primarily imports and adopts existing technology, research on Australia complements previous research on the United States. While contractionary policy reduces aggregate research and development spending, and in turn productivity, the effects appear more short-lived compared to the United States. When using survey measures of innovation that capture adoption, we find heterogenous responses. Small firms decrease innovation in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks, whereas large firms increase innovation. This heterogeneity may reflect differing exposures to the demand and financial constraint channels of monetary policy. United States monetary policy affects Australian firms’ innovation, at least in part by influencing global economic conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103706"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144880076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can fiscal rules improve banking system stability in developing countries? 财政规则能改善发展中国家银行体系的稳定性吗？
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103724
Yacouba Coulibaly , Askandarou Cheik Diallo
{"title":"Can fiscal rules improve banking system stability in developing countries?","authors":"Yacouba Coulibaly ,&nbsp;Askandarou Cheik Diallo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103724","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103724","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of fiscal rule adoption on banking system stability in developing countries. Using a panel of 62 developing economies over the period 1990–2020, we assess whether adopting a fiscal rule contributes to reducing the level of bank nonperforming loans, a key indicator of banking vulnerability. The analysis relies on entropy balancing to ensure covariates balance between treated and control groups. Results indicate that the adoption of fiscal rules significantly reduces the ratio of nonperforming loans, with an average treatment effect of approximately 0.85 percentage points. The study identifies multiple transmission channels—sovereign credit ratings, income inequality reduction, and macroeconomic stabilization—through which fiscal rules strengthen banking stability. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect varies by the type and duration of the rule and by structural financial characteristics. This research contributes to the literature by extending the role of fiscal rules beyond debt and deficit control, framing them as institutional anchors for financial stability in fiscally and economically vulnerable contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103724"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145362058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Learning from news 从新闻学习
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103690
Luis Herrera , Jesús Vázquez
{"title":"Learning from news","authors":"Luis Herrera ,&nbsp;Jesús Vázquez","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103690","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103690","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper contributes to two strands of business cycle literature — news shocks and bounded rationality — by assessing the empirical importance of TFP news shocks while relaxing the rational expectations assumption. We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model, incorporating financial frictions and TFP news shocks, under two different expectation formation mechanisms: rational expectations (RE) and adaptive learning (AL). The results suggest that AL amplifies the effects of financial market frictions, leading to three key findings. First, AL improves the model’s fit, as shown in the related literature, and better replicates the volatility of several aggregate variables. Second, the AL amplification results in a deflationary response and a more persistent reaction of lending spreads to TFP news shocks. Third, AL increases the importance of pure news shocks (i.e. purely anticipated shocks), amplifying their effects through both expectation and credit channels. Finally, we show that the dynamics generated by the DSGE model under AL align more closely with empirical VAR evidence than those produced by the RE version of the DSGE model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 103690"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144261901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Identifying monetary policy shocks through external constraints 通过外部约束识别货币政策冲击
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103696
Francesco Fusari
{"title":"Identifying monetary policy shocks through external constraints","authors":"Francesco Fusari","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103696","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103696","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes a new strategy for the identification of monetary policy shocks in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs). It combines sign restrictions on the impulse responses with external constraints on high-frequency surprises and central bank’s macroeconomic projections. I use this approach to evaluate the transmission of US monetary policy over the period 1965–2007. First, I find that contractionary monetary policy shocks unequivocally decrease output, sharpening the ambiguous implications of standard sign-restricted SVARs. Second, I show that these findings, differently from those obtained under alternative methodologies, remain valid even when inference is performed using a prior-robust Bayesian algorithm. Furthermore, my identification strategy is successful in recovering monetary shocks and monetary policy equations that are coherent, respectively, with narrative sign restrictions and restrictions on the systematic component of monetary policy. Finally, I show that this framework ensures great flexibility and is particularly convenient for the joint identification of monetary policy and central bank information shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 103696"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144653089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What caused the post-pandemic inflation in France? An analysis using the Bernanke–Blanchard model 是什么导致了大流行后法国的通货膨胀？使用贝南克-布兰查德模型的分析
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103699
Pierre Aldama , Hervé Le Bihan , Claire Le Gall
{"title":"What caused the post-pandemic inflation in France? An analysis using the Bernanke–Blanchard model","authors":"Pierre Aldama ,&nbsp;Hervé Le Bihan ,&nbsp;Claire Le Gall","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103699","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103699","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyse post-pandemic inflation in France using the Bernanke–Blanchard semi-structural model of wage and price inflation. This model builds on a wage Phillips curve, a mark-up price-setting equation and adaptive equations for short- and long-run inflation expectations. Wage and price inflation as well as inflation expectations are modelled as functions of a labour market slack indicator (the vacancies-to-unemployed ratio), energy and food price shocks, a measure of supply-chain disruptions (“shortages”) and other exogenous factors (trend productivity, Covid lockdowns/re-openings). We estimate the model from the 1990s to 2023Q2 and derive impulse response functions and historical decomposition of endogenous variables during the pandemic era. As BB for the US, we find that the main driver of the post-pandemic inflation was the energy price shocks at first, followed by the food price shocks. Labour market conditions initially played a minor role in inflation, although the substantial increase in wage inflation observed between 2021Q4 and 2023Q2 can be attributed predominantly to the tightening of the labour market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 103699"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144713457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effects of fiscal stimulus under monetary accommodation 宽松货币政策下财政刺激的效果
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103691
Hanhui Tian , Chenxi Wang , Chengsi Zhang
{"title":"The effects of fiscal stimulus under monetary accommodation","authors":"Hanhui Tian ,&nbsp;Chenxi Wang ,&nbsp;Chengsi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103691","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103691","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the transmission of fiscal stimulus under monetary accommodation (MA) in a New Keynesian framework. Our analysis highlights the financial accelerator channel, through which changes in nominal interest rate affect the asset price and consequently the real financing cost of firms. We examine how financial frictions and nominal interest rate dynamics shape the macroeconomic effects of fiscal expansion and compare different MA strategies: accommodative commitment policy and pegged interest rate policy, which capture worldwide practices of MA. Our findings highlight that the effectiveness of MA depends on the duration of fiscal stimulus and the presence of frictional financial intermediation. Additionally, we show that imperfect risk sharing between households and entrepreneurs further enhances the role of financial accelerator channel.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 103691"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144261775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Asserting independence: Optimal monetary policy when the central bank and political authority disagree 维护独立性：当中央银行和政治当局意见不一致时的最优货币政策
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103694
Justin Svec, Daniel L. Tortorice
{"title":"Asserting independence: Optimal monetary policy when the central bank and political authority disagree","authors":"Justin Svec,&nbsp;Daniel L. Tortorice","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103694","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103694","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper solves for optimal monetary policy when households face uncertainty about whether the central bank is independent from the political authority. In our model an independent central bank maximizes its own preferences while a dependent central bank maximizes the preferences of the political authority. Households form beliefs regarding the likelihood that the central bank is independent and update these beliefs using Bayes” rule given the observed choice of interest rate. The central bank takes into account how its policy choice influences household beliefs. We find that the central bank suffers losses when it is perceived to be captured, leading the central bank to deviate from traditional optimal policy under rational expectations to demonstrate its independence to the households.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 103694"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Back to trend: COVID effects on E-commerce in 44 countries 回到趋势：新冠疫情对44个国家电子商务的影响
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103682
Joel Alcedo , Alberto Cavallo , Prachi Mishra , Antonio Spilimbergo
{"title":"Back to trend: COVID effects on E-commerce in 44 countries","authors":"Joel Alcedo ,&nbsp;Alberto Cavallo ,&nbsp;Prachi Mishra ,&nbsp;Antonio Spilimbergo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103682","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103682","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study online spending shares in 44 economies and 26 industries during the COVID-19 pandemic, using online transaction data from Mastercard. The online shares of total credit card transactions surged during the pandemic during lockdowns, but since returned to pre-pandemic trends in most countries. The differences between countries are strongly correlated with the mobility and fiscal measures. There is little evidence of permanent structural changes in e-commerce spending patterns. Finally, we estimate that COVID-19-related restrictions on in-person spending imposed average welfare costs of 7 percent.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 103682"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144314227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What goes around comes around: The US climate-economic cycle 一报还一报：美国气候-经济周期
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103680
Konstantin Boss , Alessandra Testa
{"title":"What goes around comes around: The US climate-economic cycle","authors":"Konstantin Boss ,&nbsp;Alessandra Testa","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103680","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103680","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use a spatial data set of US temperatures in a factor-augmented VAR to quantify the contribution of the US economy to fluctuations in temperatures over the past 70 years. Disentangling natural from anthropogenic effects, we find that economic expansions have not only led to warming: technology shocks initially decreased temperatures, whereas investment and labor supply shocks increased them rapidly and persistently. Taken together, these economic shocks explained around 25% of long-term temperature variation in the US. In turn, temperature shocks have induced small contractions in aggregate GDP, but could even be beneficial for the economy, when they predominantly hit the western states.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 103680"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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