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Monetary regimes and regional economies: A counterfactual perspective from two euro opt-outs 货币制度和区域经济：从两个选择退出欧元区的反事实视角
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103700
Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho , Sally Wong
{"title":"Monetary regimes and regional economies: A counterfactual perspective from two euro opt-outs","authors":"Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho ,&nbsp;Sally Wong","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103700","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103700","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the counterfactual impact of an alternative monetary regime on regional income and disparity within Denmark and Sweden, two EU countries that opted out of the euro at its introduction in 1999, using the synthetic control method. Our findings reveal that counterfactual income trajectories would have been highly heterogeneous: while most Danish regions would have experienced modest losses or gains, some Swedish regions might have recorded lower income levels under the counterfactual, although the evidence is mixed and concentrated in a small number of non-capital regions. We further analyze these outcomes in light of standard theories of monetary unions, finding that regions more open to trade and with greater capital intensity would have been more likely to benefit. Finally, we assess the implications for regional inequality, showing that the current monetary regime was associated with reduced regional income disparities in Denmark and produced mixed effects in Sweden.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 103700"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144809744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Demand, wealth inequality and the business cycle 需求、财富不平等和商业周期
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103693
Lilia Cavallari , Stefano D’Addona , Paolo Porchia
{"title":"Demand, wealth inequality and the business cycle","authors":"Lilia Cavallari ,&nbsp;Stefano D’Addona ,&nbsp;Paolo Porchia","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103693","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103693","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We consider a flexible price continuous-time DSGE model of a closed economy populated by heterogeneous households subject to uninsurable idiosyncratic income risk and aggregate TFP shocks. The economy produces a variety of imperfectly substitutable final goods. Our main innovation is a rich representation of household consumption and saving behavior allowing for a time-varying elasticity of substitution across varieties. Specifically, we consider a utility function displaying Increasing Elasticity of Substitution (IES). We provide a convenient approach to handle the complex dynamic programming problem implied by income heterogeneity, aggregate shocks and non-homothetic preferences. We show that IES preferences help to replicate important features of the wealth distribution observed in the data together with a plausible macroeconomic dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 103693"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144663341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The quantity theory of money: An empirical analysis for 1870 - 2020 货币数量理论：1870 - 2020年的实证分析
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103681
Alexander Jung
{"title":"The quantity theory of money: An empirical analysis for 1870 - 2020","authors":"Alexander Jung","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103681","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103681","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study revisits the Quantity Theory of Money (QTM) by examining the relationship between excess money growth and inflation over 150 years (1870–2020) in 18 industrialized countries. Utilizing the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database and advanced econometric techniques, the research uncovers that the strength of this long-run relationship has varied across time and different monetary regimes: it was weak during the classical gold standard and the recent age of inflation targeting, whereas it was strong after World War I and before the Great Moderation. The money-inflation link has been very reliable in high-inflation regimes but was unreliable in low-inflation environments. The empirical analysis also confirms long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary impulses to inflation, with excess money growth impacting inflation after 2 to 2½ years.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 103681"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corporate finance and interest rate policy 公司财务和利率政策
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103698
Alessandro Piergallini
{"title":"Corporate finance and interest rate policy","authors":"Alessandro Piergallini","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103698","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103698","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I develop flexible- and sticky-price general equilibrium models that embody endogenous corporate financing decisions affecting firm value due to distortionary taxes. Nominal interest-rate variations impact the costs of debt and equity capital asymmetrically and thereby induce firms to modify the financial structure, altering the gap between the optimization-based weighted average cost of capital and the real interest rate. Under these circumstances, I characterize conditions under which rules-based monetary policies that set the nominal interest rate as an increasing function of the inflation rate induce aggregate stability in the form of a unique stable equilibrium. In contrast to what is commonly argued, I demonstrate that both passive interest rate policies, which underreact to inflation, and mildly active interest rate policies, which overreact to inflation but below a threshold reflecting both tax and capital structures, ensure determinacy of equilibrium. Conversely, excessively aggressive inflation-fighting monetary actions are destabilizing in the presence of price stickiness by generating either multiple equilibria or the nonexistence of stable equilibria. Under the stabilizing monetary regimes, I prove that macroeconomic dynamics following either interest rate normalization or temporary monetary tightening critically depend upon the tax code and the steady-state debt-equity ratio.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 103698"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144631678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are regional fiscal multipliers on EU structural and investment fund spending large? A reassessment of the evidence 欧盟结构性和投资基金支出的地区财政乘数是否很大？对证据的重新评估
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103692
Federico Fiuratti, Desislava Nikolova, Steven Pennings, Marc Schiffbauer
{"title":"Are regional fiscal multipliers on EU structural and investment fund spending large? A reassessment of the evidence","authors":"Federico Fiuratti,&nbsp;Desislava Nikolova,&nbsp;Steven Pennings,&nbsp;Marc Schiffbauer","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103692","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103692","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The European Commission’s “NextGenerationEU” COVID-19 recovery package has underscored interest in the size of regional fiscal multipliers in Europe. While the objective of EU funds is generally the long-term transformation and growth of EU economies, several recent papers have estimated large short-term regional multipliers on historical EU structural and investment fund spending. This paper reevaluates the evidence by estimating relative regional short-term multipliers using recent data on EU fund spending at the subnational (NUTS2) level and a leave-one-out predicted disbursement schedule instrument. In contrast with much of the recent literature, we find little evidence of large relative GDP multipliers. While investment responds strongly to EU funds, often increasing euro for euro, we also find suggestive evidence of crowding out of other government consumption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 103692"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144314226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Leading patent breadth, endogenous quality choice, and economic growth 领先专利广度、内生质量选择与经济增长
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103697
Keishun Suzuki, Shin Kishimoto
{"title":"Leading patent breadth, endogenous quality choice, and economic growth","authors":"Keishun Suzuki,&nbsp;Shin Kishimoto","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103697","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103697","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>O’Donoghue and Zweimüller (2004, J. Econ. Growth 9(1), 81-123), a seminal work, showed that broadening leading breadth in patent protection can stimulate innovation. However, the empirical literature has consistently found skeptical results on the positive effect. To fill the gap, we build another framework where the quality improvement size is derived as an interior solution. In our model, broadening leading breadth can negatively affect innovation because each innovator is incentivized to <em>free-ride</em> the other innovators’ quality improvements. As a further analysis, we quantitatively investigate the growth effect of intervention in patent licensing negotiations using two different profit division rules derived from a cooperative game. We find that intervention in patent licensing negotiations increases the growth rate and stabilizes the economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 103697"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144581175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A monetary policy accordion: Why do central banks from different countries expand and contract together? 货币政策手风琴：为什么不同国家的央行会同时扩张和收缩？
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103703
Parantap Basu , Yongdae Lee , Leslie J. Reinhorn
{"title":"A monetary policy accordion: Why do central banks from different countries expand and contract together?","authors":"Parantap Basu ,&nbsp;Yongdae Lee ,&nbsp;Leslie J. Reinhorn","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103703","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103703","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>During recent decades, the monetary policies of central banks have shown significant co-movements mostly led by major economies such as the US. We find that this can be explained even when central banks adopt “inward looking” policy rules without aiming to stabilize exchange rates. We develop an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with an agency problem in the banking sector. Our study suggests two channels through which the foreign and home policy rates co-move. Following the terms of trade channel, an exogenous rise in the foreign policy rate results in a capital outflow and a depreciation of the home currency. As import prices rise, home inflation increases and imports decrease. Then, via the Taylor rule, the home central bank raises its policy rate. The balance sheet channel coupled with a borrowing constraint amplifies the effects of the foreign policy rate shock. Due to the capital outflows that follow from the increase in the foreign rate, home banks experience a contraction of their balance sheets. The borrowing constraint then generates a feedback effect. This financial accelerator makes funding scarce, puts upward pressure on the user cost of capital, and feeds into even higher inflation. The policy co-movement becomes stronger when (a) global financial markets are more integrated, (b) the home country’s openness is higher, and (c) the home central bank is more aggressive in fighting inflation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 103703"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145004413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on consumption using bank transactions 评估COVID-19对使用银行交易的消费的异质性影响
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103677
Selien De Schryder, Nikolaos Koutounidis, Koen Schoors, Johannes Weytjens
{"title":"Assessing the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on consumption using bank transactions","authors":"Selien De Schryder,&nbsp;Nikolaos Koutounidis,&nbsp;Koen Schoors,&nbsp;Johannes Weytjens","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103677","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103677","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transmission of the pandemic shock to the macroeconomy through the prism of consumer heterogeneity is the focal point of this paper. Based on a rich bank account and transactions micro dataset, we assess the roles of local COVID-19 severity, government measures against the spread of the virus, and vaccination rates for households’ consumption behavior in Belgium. We find that households living in areas that experienced high COVID-19 positivity rates and more stringent containment measures, decreased their consumption more. The relevance of these effects, however, shifted over the course of the pandemic. Higher local vaccination rates significantly counteracted these negative impacts on household consumption. Furthermore, our study highlights that the impact of these factors on consumption varied distinctly across households with different income, liquid wealth, and age characteristics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103677"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143823943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the costs of inflation with a general equilibrium welfare measure and alternative utility functions 用一般均衡福利测度和替代效用函数研究通货膨胀的成本
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103678
Constantine Angyridis , Arman Mansoorian , Leo Michelis
{"title":"On the costs of inflation with a general equilibrium welfare measure and alternative utility functions","authors":"Constantine Angyridis ,&nbsp;Arman Mansoorian ,&nbsp;Leo Michelis","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103678","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103678","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the costs associated with the level and variability of inflation in the context of a general equilibrium (<span><math><mrow><mi>G</mi><mi>E</mi></mrow></math></span>) welfare measure which accounts for the optimal adjustments of all the endogenous variables in the model in response to the transfers received by the households. We compare and contrast the <span><math><mrow><mi>G</mi><mi>E</mi></mrow></math></span> welfare costs with the conventional consumption equivalent (<span><math><mrow><mi>C</mi><mi>E</mi></mrow></math></span>) measure across three utility functions that have been used routinely in the macroeconomics literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103678"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143859214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The multifaceted effect of monetary policy on U.S. credit aggregates 货币政策对美国信贷总量的多方面影响
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103674
Maximilien Coussin
{"title":"The multifaceted effect of monetary policy on U.S. credit aggregates","authors":"Maximilien Coussin","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103674","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103674","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model and extensions, this paper investigates the impact of monetary policy on various credit aggregates in the United States over sixty years. The analysis reveals that monetary policy impacts different types of credit heterogeneously, with credit to the financial sector reacting particularly strongly. Bank-held credit exhibits notable sensitivity to monetary policy shocks. The effects of monetary policy are also conditional on the phases of the economic and financial cycles, showing a much stronger impact during periods of expansion. Additionally, a long-term strengthening of the transmission mechanisms suggests that substantial structural changes have occurred over the past six decades.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103674"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143631994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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