Journal of Macroeconomics最新文献_第4页

Trust in public institutions, inequality, and digital interaction: Empirical evidence from European Union countries 对公共机构的信任、不平等和数字互动：来自欧盟国家的经验证据

IF 1.4 3区经济学

Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103582

Flaviana Palmisano , Agnese Sacchi

{"title":"Trust in public institutions, inequality, and digital interaction: Empirical evidence from European Union countries","authors":"Flaviana Palmisano , Agnese Sacchi","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103582","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103582","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Declining institutional trust is one of the central problems in modern societies. Identifying its determinants, among which inequality, is fundamental for designing suitable interventions to restore confidence in institutions and preserve the social contract. We study the relationship between the two phenomena for EU-28 countries over the period 2003–2019. We use OLS and IV estimations to show that increasing income inequality is significantly associated with reduced trust in national governments. We also find that citizens’ digital interaction with the public administrations represents a mitigating channel as it contributes to shrinking the adverse effect of inequality on institutional trust, especially for more vulnerable categories in society, such as individuals with low educational attainment and those who are unemployed. These new insights might be particularly helpful for the government's agenda to meet transparency goals and provide more digital public services. From a policy viewpoint, redistribution policies combined with a well-established <em>e-relationship</em> between citizens and governments may be the road to restore trust in institutions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070423000824/pdfft?md5=56bdb81356349e5e8e03aa84c323eb21&pid=1-s2.0-S0164070423000824-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138681258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unconventional monetary policy, financial frictions, and the equity tandem 非常规货币政策，金融摩擦，和股票串联

IF 1.4 3区经济学

Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103580

Roland von Campe

{"title":"Unconventional monetary policy, financial frictions, and the equity tandem","authors":"Roland von Campe","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A key feature of many DSGE frameworks designed to model Quantitative Easing (QE) is that net worth only plays a relevant role on bank’s balance sheets. In reality, however, net worth of borrowers <em>and</em> lenders plays a relevant role in financing investment projects. I show that this <em>equity tandem</em> has important implications. Net worth of non-financial firms acts as a <em>first line of defense</em>, since non-financial firm’s balance sheets are hit in the first place by real sector shocks. Modeling the equity tandem increases the resilience of the model and, therefore, implies smaller gains of unconventional monetary policy. A novel insight from the simultaneous modeling of borrowers and lenders net worth is that by decreasing the cost of external finance a QE policy is redistributing net worth from banks to non-financial firms. Additionally, considering the reverse operation, a credibly announced Quantitative Tightening (QT), helps to stabilize the spread between the return to capital and the deposit rate during the zero lower bound period. However, different anticipated QT paths are shown to have little consequences for output and inflation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070423000800/pdfft?md5=3022c7b5f3df4ac2bae4b51bf0967a03&pid=1-s2.0-S0164070423000800-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138453617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Labor market institutions and technology-induced labor adjustment along the extensive and intensive margins 劳动力市场制度和技术诱导的沿粗放型和集约型边际的劳动力调整

IF 1.4 3区经济学

Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103571

Svetlana Rujin

引用次数: 0

Life-cycle wealth accumulation and consumption insurance 生命周期财富积累和消费保险

IF 1.4 3区经济学

Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103566

Claudio Campanale , Marcello Sartarelli

引用次数: 0

The magnifying role of the banking sector during depressions 银行业在萧条时期的放大作用

IF 1.4 3区经济学

Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103569

Paulo Júlio , José R. Maria

{"title":"The magnifying role of the banking sector during depressions","authors":"Paulo Júlio , José R. Maria","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103569","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Is there a magnifying role of the banking sector during depressions? How can a financial perturbation, possibly small-sized, create large impacts on output and enduring recessions? What is the role played by the massive stock of due claims brought about by a financial crisis? We address these questions by putting forth a general equilibrium model endowed with a banking system in which due claims – henceforth named due loans – and occasionally binding credit restrictions coexist and their effects reinforce each other. Under “bad” financially-driven perturbations due loans hike and the concomitant opportunity, holding, regulatory, and impairment costs trigger sizable increases in external finance <em>premia</em> and promote credit restrictiveness. Firms’ net worth collapses as they are called in to finance banks’ problems, and their ability to invest and accumulate capital becomes compromised. The amplification effect can be very large: the full-fledged banking model may only require a perturbation of one-tenth the size of a plain vanilla version to deliver the same output drop at the trough. Effects are non-linear, since credit restrictions remain slack on the boundary of the steady state, and asymmetric, since these restrictions play no role whatsoever under “good shocks.”</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92063262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The limits of limitless debt 无限债务的限制

IF 1.4 3区经济学

Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103567

Kent Osband, Valerio Filoso, Salvatore Capasso

{"title":"The limits of limitless debt","authors":"Kent Osband, Valerio Filoso, Salvatore Capasso","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103567","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103567","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>While low real interest rates and issuing public debt in fiat money safeguard against rising sovereign debt-to-GDP ratios, evidence shows that high debt often precedes default, and credit spreads may not signal imminent risk.</p><p>We offer a simple way to model the trade-offs using local martingales. On the one hand, it acknowledges that large debt overhangs tend to raise default risks. On the other hand, it allows sovereigns to roll over debt regardless of long-term fiscal solvency. The combination allows credit spreads to stay very low for decades, eventually spiral out of control and trigger a default. Hence, neither the reassurance of low spreads nor the alarm from growing overhang should automatically prevail.</p><p>To illustrate the trade-offs, we review the ebb and flow of US sovereign debt burdens since World War II. Between record peacetime debt-to-GDP ratios and weakened fiscal discipline, an exemplary double-or-triple-A credit rating for the US no longer seems justified. Moreover, the current outlook is poor, with debt growing much faster than GDP and scant prospects of contraction.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070423000678/pdfft?md5=92a8e818f087c79208806bca9f00fde6&pid=1-s2.0-S0164070423000678-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135411489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do central bank words matter in emerging markets? Evidence from Mexico 央行的话对新兴市场有影响吗?来自墨西哥的证据

IF 1.4 3区经济学

Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103570

Pavel Solís

引用次数: 0

Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles 季节温度变化与经济周期

IF 1.4 3区经济学

Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103568

Manuel Linsenmeier

{"title":"Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles","authors":"Manuel Linsenmeier","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103568","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103568","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the role of temperature as a driver of seasonal economic cycles. The study first presents a novel dataset of seasonal temperature and seasonal GDP. Stylised facts show that seasonal economic cycles are much more diverse than previous research suggested. The study then attributes seasonal economic cycles to temperature variability. For causal identification, the study proposes a novel econometric approach that accounts for expectations. The results suggest that seasonal temperature has a statistically significantly positive and economically large effect on seasonal GDP. Overall, a substantial share of seasonality in GDP timeseries appears to be due to weather. For a subsample of European countries, the effect of temperature can be attributed to sectors that are relatively more exposed to ambient environmental conditions. Projections of climate change suggest that seasonal economic cycles might substantially change in the future, with larger cycles expected for about half of the countries in the sample.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016407042300068X/pdfft?md5=a4e0e5a5d3261e6a3cb971ebb68e22b5&pid=1-s2.0-S016407042300068X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92063261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Efficiency of short-time work schemes and the role of monetary policy 短期工作计划的效率与货币政策的作用

IF 1.4 3区经济学

Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103565

Stefan Wilhelm

引用次数: 0

The effect of legislated tax changes on the trade balance: Empirical evidence for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom 立法税收变化对贸易平衡的影响:美国、德国和英国的经验证据

IF 1.4 3区经济学

Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103564

Bernd Hayo, Sascha Mierzwa

引用次数: 0