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Financial concerns and the marginal propensity to consume in COVID times: Evidence from UK survey data COVID时期的财务担忧和边际消费倾向:来自英国调查数据的证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103563
Bruno Albuquerque , Georgina Green
{"title":"Financial concerns and the marginal propensity to consume in COVID times: Evidence from UK survey data","authors":"Bruno Albuquerque ,&nbsp;Georgina Green","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103563","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study how household concerns about their future financial situation may affect the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a representative survey of UK households to compute the MPC from a hypothetical transfer of £500. We find that household expectations play a key role in determining differences in MPCs across households: households that are concerned about not being able to make ends meet have a 20% higher MPC than other households. Our findings suggest that policies targeted at vulnerable and financially distressed households may prove more effective in stimulating demand than providing stimulus payments to all households.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49866992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
AI revolution and coordination failure: Theory and evidence 人工智能革命与协调失败:理论与证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103561
Burak Ünveren, Tunç Durmaz, Seçkin Sunal
{"title":"AI revolution and coordination failure: Theory and evidence","authors":"Burak Ünveren,&nbsp;Tunç Durmaz,&nbsp;Seçkin Sunal","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103561","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103561","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the coordination failure problem inherent within the 21st-century automation revolution. First, we build a general equilibrium model with labor-saving artificial intelligence (AI) technology that is developed through R&amp;D investments in automation. The model exhibits multiple market equilibria due to a positive feedback loop between AI investments and </span>general economic activities. The available evidence supports our model's predictions regarding the interaction between AI technologies, income inequality, and wages. We also find strong empirical support for multiple equilibria in AI development—the primary prediction of our model. These empirical and theoretical results suggest that AI development can cause coordination failures, thereby creating leaders and followers in automation. However, according to our policy analysis, R&amp;D subsidies and public-private partnerships are efficient coordination devices to tackle this problem.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49901205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do more frequent price adjustments guarantee less effective monetary stimulus when uncertainty rises? 当不确定性上升时，更频繁的价格调整是否保证货币刺激的有效性降低?
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103562
Kwangyong Park
{"title":"Do more frequent price adjustments guarantee less effective monetary stimulus when uncertainty rises?","authors":"Kwangyong Park","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103562","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103562","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Probably not. When firms face higher uncertainty, they may reset their prices more frequently, but this does not necessarily mean that monetary policy is less effective in boosting real activity. In fact, the real effect of monetary policy may be strengthened because firms shift their attention away from the monetary policy shock to productivity shocks to minimize profit loss due to suboptimal price-setting. This conjecture is supported by a model with an information processing capacity constraint, which shows that monetary policy becomes more effective in stimulating the economy during periods of high uncertainty. Moreover, the model’s key characteristics and moments of price distribution match those observed in the micro price data.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49866993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the welfare costs of business cycles: Beyond nondurable goods 商业周期的福利成本:超越非耐用品
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103560
Fernando Barros Jr. , Gabriel T. Couto , Fábio A.R. Gomes
{"title":"On the welfare costs of business cycles: Beyond nondurable goods","authors":"Fernando Barros Jr. ,&nbsp;Gabriel T. Couto ,&nbsp;Fábio A.R. Gomes","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103560","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103560","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper constitutes the first effort to measure the welfare costs of economic cycles considering that the consumer derives utility from the consumption of nondurable goods and services and the stock of durable goods. To accomplish such a task, we put forward a novel approach based on a nonseparable utility function. As a result, we take into account the complementarities among the consumption categories and the correlations of the shocks in those series. Our findings for the U.S. economy suggest that the single-good approach in the literature tends to underestimate the welfare costs of business cycles.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44702568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effects of monetary and government spending policy on economic inequality 货币和政府支出政策对经济不平等的影响
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103547
Saroj Dhital , Senyuan Jiang , Jillian Reese
{"title":"Effects of monetary and government spending policy on economic inequality","authors":"Saroj Dhital ,&nbsp;Senyuan Jiang ,&nbsp;Jillian Reese","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103547","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103547","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using detailed micro-level income and expenditure data, we study the effects of monetary and government spending policy shocks on income and expenditure inequality<span> in the US from 1990 to 2018. We find that expansionary monetary and government spending policy shocks systematically decrease income, disposable income and expenditure inequality. There is evidence of time variation on the effects and monetary policy<span> and transfer payment shocks. Various impulse responses suggest that the impacts of the policy shocks increase during and after the Great Recession. The responses of income and expenditures of households at different percentiles suggest that expansionary monetary and government spending policy have a larger positive impact on households with low income and expenditures relative to those at the top of the distribution. We do not find evidence of the significant impact of Quantitative Easing policies on income inequality, however, expenditure inequality appear to increase due to the policies.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45141109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Big Brother is also being watched: Measuring fiscal credibility “老大哥”也受到了关注:衡量财政可信度
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103548
Nicolas End
{"title":"Big Brother is also being watched: Measuring fiscal credibility","authors":"Nicolas End","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103548","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103548","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Fiscal policy is less credible than monetary policy, due to political economy issues. This paper provides an explicit measure of fiscal credibility, based on the anchoring of private expectations onto official targets. It documents how credibility varied among a sample of 27 European countries over 1995–2019. Credibility behaves like a stock of trust that is affected by fiscal policy, past performance, and institutions (fiscal rules and councils). This paper highlights how regular government communication – budgets and fiscal plans – is crucial to anchor expectations and buttress credibility. Last, it shows that credibility is associated with better sovereign financing conditions. Governments should thus strive to maintain their credibility.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48455219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal stabilization rule 财政稳定规则#
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103528
Hovick Shahnazarian
{"title":"Fiscal stabilization rule","authors":"Hovick Shahnazarian","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103528","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103528","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The optimal fiscal stabilization rule presented in this paper is derived from a loss function where the government is assumed to keep the structural balance close to its target level and simultaneously stabilize the GDP and inflation gaps. The rule yields the size of the discretionary stabilization measures needed, in addition to automatic stabilizers, to be able to stabilize the business cycle, without compromising the sustainability of public finances. Using this policy rule and a first-order Taylor expansion of the fiscal balance, we decompose the automatic stabilizers and the discretionary fiscal policy conditional on business cycle conditions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42416021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Child survival and contraception choice: Theory and evidence 儿童生存与避孕选择:理论与证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103545
Joydeep Bhattacharya , Shankha Chakraborty , Minkyong Kim
{"title":"Child survival and contraception choice: Theory and evidence","authors":"Joydeep Bhattacharya ,&nbsp;Shankha Chakraborty ,&nbsp;Minkyong Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103545","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103545","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper asks whether increases in child survival bring down fertility and incentivize couples to switch from traditional to modern methods of contraception. Our parsimonious model predicts the answer in each case is, yes. We test these connections using household-level Demographic and Health Surveys from recent fertility transitions using arguably exogenous variation in child survival at the regional level. We find a 1% increase in ambient child survival leads to a fertility drop of 1.2%. The same raises the chance of switching to modern birth control (and sticking to it) by 0.4%. Our finding supports the notion that prevailing rates of child survival influence the effectiveness of family planning programs that promote modern contraceptive use.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44645468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Public investment, national debt, and economic growth: The role of debt finance under dynamic inefficiency 公共投资、国债与经济增长:动态无效率下债务融资的作用
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103535
Akira Kamiguchi , Toshiki Tamai
{"title":"Public investment, national debt, and economic growth: The role of debt finance under dynamic inefficiency","authors":"Akira Kamiguchi ,&nbsp;Toshiki Tamai","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103535","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103535","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Public investment is a central issue in the dynamic analyses of fiscal policy and economic growth. Debt financing for public investment and its effects have recently received great attention because interest rates<span> have been low, almost invariably remaining below economic growth rates. This paper presents examination of the effects of debt-financed public investment subject to a simple fiscal rule in an overlapping generations model with public capital. This topic includes capital budgeting and the debt–deficit criterion of the Maastricht treaty. We show herein that debt financing for public investment enhances economic growth if an economy is dynamically inefficient and if public capital has a sufficiently large productivity effect. Moreover, it reduces economic growth rates in a dynamically efficient economy. Debt and growth can have a monotonic or non-monotonic relation, depending on the steady-state interest rate, growth rate, and productivity effect of public investment. The findings indicate that debt–growth relations match with controversial empirical evidence. Furthermore, existing generations choose perfect debt </span></span>finance if dynamic inefficiency exists. In contrast, a balanced budget is preferred in a dynamically efficient economy with low productivity effects of public capital. However, an economy with high productivity effects of public capital might cho ose debt financing. This paper contributes to the elucidation of currently emphasized issues of public investment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42272455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Wage rigidity and destabilizing spirals 工资刚性和不稳定的螺旋式上升
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103546
Euiyoung Jung
{"title":"Wage rigidity and destabilizing spirals","authors":"Euiyoung Jung","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103546","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103546","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigates the impact of real wage<span> rigidity on the (de)stabilizing role of demand feedback. I show that destabilizing supply–demand feedback driven by countercyclical precautionary savings demand against uninsured unemployment risk is fundamentally a matter of rigid real wage adjustments over business cycles. Given the estimated wage rigidity consistent with aggregate labor market dynamics in the United States, the quantitative results suggest that the unemployment risk channel has a minor impact on aggregate volatility.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45645472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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