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Bilateral output synchronization in a globalized world: A macroeconomic evaluation of the third-country effect 全球化世界中的双边产出同步：第三国效应的宏观经济评价
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103665
Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte , Jean-Christophe Poutineau , Tovonony Razafindrabe , Fabien Rondeau
{"title":"Bilateral output synchronization in a globalized world: A macroeconomic evaluation of the third-country effect","authors":"Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte ,&nbsp;Jean-Christophe Poutineau ,&nbsp;Tovonony Razafindrabe ,&nbsp;Fabien Rondeau","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103665","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103665","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the influence of third countries on the output synchronization between two trading partners. We first address this issue in a three-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, where trade in intermediate goods operates at the intensive and extensive margins. We find that adding a third trading partner strengthens the output co-movement between two countries through two channels: a trade channel, driven by a higher total number of varieties traded that makes production processes more homogeneous across countries, and a macroeconomic channel where the third country exerts a stabilizing effect on the intensive and extensive margins of production in the other two countries. Applying Jordà’s local projections to 34 countries from 1979Q2 to 2019Q4, we find that the inclusion of a third partner raises the output co-movement in 75% of cases on average, with a median rise of 54% on average compared to the two-country case. Our results are robust to (i) an alternative identification of productivity shocks and (ii) the inclusion of extensive trade margins as control variables. Those stylized facts of upward output synchronization resulting from the explicit inclusion of a third trading partner are consistent with our theoretical predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103665"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143474724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Automation and job polarization 自动化与工作极化
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103673
Chia-Hui Lu
{"title":"Automation and job polarization","authors":"Chia-Hui Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103673","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103673","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>By introducing the development of automation into a labor search model with differently skilled workers, this paper finds that increased automation of production processes leads to job polarization. When there is an increase in the degree to which automation and middle-skilled labor can replace each other, firms producing final goods will use automation in place of human labor rather than the other way around. In economies where people can acquire skills and make endogenous occupational choices, government subsidies to cover the learning costs of high-skilled labor enhance output production and household welfare, but increase the degree of job polarization. Furthermore, we find that reducing job polarization is not necessarily beneficial for macroeconomic performance when the government subsidizes the cost of learning for household members to become middle-skilled workers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103673"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143552926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do commitment and enforcement of fiscal rules enhance fiscal stability? Evidence from European Union countries 财政规则的承诺和执行是否能增强财政稳定？来自欧盟国家的证据
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103664
Antonia López-Villavicencio, Jocelyne Zoumenou
{"title":"Do commitment and enforcement of fiscal rules enhance fiscal stability? Evidence from European Union countries","authors":"Antonia López-Villavicencio,&nbsp;Jocelyne Zoumenou","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103664","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103664","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impact of fiscal rules on EU countries’ fiscal stability, particularly within the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) framework. By rigorously addressing endogeneity concerns, we show that, among all the rules imposed by the SGP, compliance with budget balance rules (BBR) and to a lesser extent, deficit rules, are the only ones that contribute to fiscal stability. However, countries that comply with other targets – either individually, simultaneously, or by adopting a constitutional BBR – do not perform better than those that comply exclusively with the budget balance rule. Finally, our results suggest that strong fiscal rules are not necessary to achieve better fiscal discipline.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103664"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143386807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal consolidations in developing countries with a Latin America focus: The role of inequality, informality and corruption 以拉丁美洲为重点的发展中国家财政整顿：不平等、不拘形式和腐败的作用
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103675
João Tovar Jalles , Carola Pessino
{"title":"Fiscal consolidations in developing countries with a Latin America focus: The role of inequality, informality and corruption","authors":"João Tovar Jalles ,&nbsp;Carola Pessino","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103675","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103675","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Widening income disparities, higher corruption and larger informality in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDE) including Latin America, all with pressing and mounting fiscal problems, have rekindled interest in the empirical analysis of the key factors determining the occurrence of fiscal consolidations. Using discrete choice models, this paper examines the drivers of fiscal consolidation episodes in a sample of 148 EMDE between 1980 and 2019 with a focus on Latin America. Inequality does not seem to drive consolidations in Latin America, while more informality (corruption) increases (decreases) the probability of their occurrence. In turn, when examining the drivers of successful consolidations, larger income inequality (informality) seems to act as a boost (hinderance) for successful consolidations. Results are robust to several sensitivity and robustness tests.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103675"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143899319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cautionary tales of fat tails 肥尾的警世故事
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103679
Chetan Dave , Scott J. Dressler , Samreen Malik
{"title":"Cautionary tales of fat tails","authors":"Chetan Dave ,&nbsp;Scott J. Dressler ,&nbsp;Samreen Malik","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103679","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103679","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Distributions of GDP fluctuations that exhibit fat tails shed doubt on the suitability of Normal distributions in empirical and theoretical business-cycle analyses. We document: (i) fat tails in US output fluctuations are not a pervading characteristic of the entire post-war sample, and appear in subsamples exhibiting declines in cyclical and trend volatility (e.g., the Great Moderation); (ii) a DSGE environment featuring Normal shocks that match the declines in observed cyclical and trend volatility can explain almost all of the fat-tailed characteristics observed in the data, leaving little support for the role of rare, large shocks delivering fat-tailed distributions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103679"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143870120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparing the response of different education groups to predictable changes in income 比较不同教育群体对可预测的收入变化的反应
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103676
Charles Grant
{"title":"Comparing the response of different education groups to predictable changes in income","authors":"Charles Grant","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103676","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103676","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) can be tested using the excess-sensitivity test, which investigates whether current consumption is affected by predictable changes in income. Several studies have shown that households are overly sensitive to changes in current income, especially if they have low assets. This study shows that university educated households behave according to PIH, but that less educated households are excessively sensitive to predictable changes in income. This result is consistent with the idea that university-educated households are more patient.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103676"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143792578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
External shocks and FX intervention policy in financially dollarized economies 金融美元化经济体的外部冲击与外汇干预政策
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103672
Alex Carrasco , David Florián Hoyle
{"title":"External shocks and FX intervention policy in financially dollarized economies","authors":"Alex Carrasco ,&nbsp;David Florián Hoyle","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103672","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103672","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the role of sterilized FX interventions as a monetary policy tool in response to external shocks for dollarized emerging market economies. Our model highlights an agency problem that limits banks’ ability to secure funds in both domestic and foreign currencies, with its intensity linked to currency mismatches in the banking sector. This leads to endogenous deviations from the standard UIP condition, resulting in a non-neutral FX intervention policy. Sterilized FX interventions stabilize financial conditions not only by stabilizing real exchange rates but also by acting as a balance sheet policy that directly influences credit supply. Our quantitative analysis shows that FX policy rules that counteract exchange rate deviations reduce volatility in interest rate spreads including UIP deviations, credit, investment, and output, leading to significant welfare improvements compared to a flexible exchange rate regime.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103672"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The partisanship of a central banker 中央银行家的党派主义
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103657
Fabrizio Carmignani
{"title":"The partisanship of a central banker","authors":"Fabrizio Carmignani","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103657","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103657","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Even if formally established as independent, central banks may still be subject to partisan influences. The paper uses a simple new-Keynesian framework to model these influences as <em>quiescence</em> (i.e. when the central bank aligns with the ideological preferences of the incumbent government) or <em>demurral</em> (i.e. when the central bank moves away from the ideological preferences of the incumbent). The partisanship of the central bank then depends on which of these two prevails. The empirical analysis shows that different patterns of quiescence and demurral occur in different countries at different times. There is however also evidence that in some circumstances the conduct of monetary policy is non-partisan; that is, neither quiescence nor demurral prevails.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103657"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142700019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal patent policy and wealth inequality in a Schumpeterian economy 熊彼特经济中的最优专利政策与财富不平等
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103656
Angus C. Chu , Chih-Hsing Liao
{"title":"Optimal patent policy and wealth inequality in a Schumpeterian economy","authors":"Angus C. Chu ,&nbsp;Chih-Hsing Liao","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103656","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103656","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does wealth inequality affect optimal patent policy? This study develops a Schumpeterian growth model with heterogeneous households to explore this question. Our model features a general innovation specification that nests two common specifications: (a) the <em>knowledge-driven</em> specification that uses R&amp;D labor, and (b) the <em>lab-equipment</em> specification that uses final output for R&amp;D. Under the knowledge-driven specification, all households prefer the same level of patent protection. However, under the lab-equipment specification, less wealthy households prefer weaker patent protection, so an unequal distribution of wealth reduces optimal patent protection and economic growth. Under the general innovation specification, strengthening patent protection has an inverted-U effect on innovation, in contrast to the positive effect under the two special cases. More importantly, an unequal wealth distribution continues to reduce optimal patent protection. Calibrating the model to US data, we find that eliminating wealth inequality raises economic growth by about 0.5% via stronger patent protection.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103656"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Consumption responses to inheritances: The role of durable goods 消费对继承的反应：耐用品的作用
IF 1.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103661
Ignacio Belloc , José Alberto Molina , Jorge Velilla
{"title":"Consumption responses to inheritances: The role of durable goods","authors":"Ignacio Belloc ,&nbsp;José Alberto Molina ,&nbsp;Jorge Velilla","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103661","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103661","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the impact of inheritances, a key component in household wealth accumulation, on consumption. Specifically, we investigate how inheritances influence household consumption growth, distinguishing durable and nondurable goods. In doing so, we use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics spanning 2005–2019. The results reveal a positive effect of inheritances on household consumption of durable goods. Such an effect occurs immediately after receiving the inheritance and its average magnitude is about 27 %. Estimates also reveal that large inheritances significantly impact the consumption growth of durables, but also of non-durables, while small inheritances show no effects. Consumption responses are stronger among liquidity and borrowing constrained households, aligning with life-cycle models of consumption behavior. Insights inform planners by highlighting varied effects of inheritances on household consumption, particularly emphasizing the nuanced impact of inheritance size.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 103661"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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