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Does automation technology increase wage? 自动化技术会提高工资吗?
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103541
Ryosuke Shimizu , Shohei Momoda
{"title":"Does automation technology increase wage?","authors":"Ryosuke Shimizu ,&nbsp;Shohei Momoda","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103541","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103541","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines the relationship between automation technology and wages. In the model, producers either choose automation or non-automation technology, whichever is more profitable. Furthermore, when producers introduce automation technology, they must pay fixed costs, which differ between industries. The main results of this paper indicate that the increased productivity of automation technology promotes automation, decreases labor income share, and also decreases wages when the level of automation diffusion is sufficiently high.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45678581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Public debt and welfare in a quantitative Schumpeterian growth model with incomplete markets 不完全市场下熊彼特增长模型中的公共债务与福利
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103539
Marco Cozzi
{"title":"Public debt and welfare in a quantitative Schumpeterian growth model with incomplete markets","authors":"Marco Cozzi","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103539","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103539","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>This paper quantifies the welfare effects of counterfactual public debt policies using an endogenous growth model with incomplete markets. The economy features public debt, Schumpeterian growth, infinitely-lived agents, uninsurable income risk, and discount factor heterogeneity. Two versions of the model are specified, one with households holding equity in the group of innovating firms. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy to match the degree of </span>wealth inequality, the share of R&amp;D expenditure in GDP, the firms’ exit rate, the average growth rate, and other standard long-run targets. When comparing balanced growth paths, I find large welfare gains in equilibria characterized by governments accumulating public wealth. The result is robust to the mechanism used to generate a highly concentrated wealth (i.e., preference heterogeneity or “superstar” income shocks). Welfare effects decompositions show that level effects and growth effects reinforce each other. The responses of both the </span>intermediate goods<span> and their market conditions are key in explaining the large level effects. The version of the model without equity is computationally easier to solve, allowing to consider transitional dynamics. Taking into account the dynamic adjustment to the new long-run equilibrium, I show that the transitional welfare costs are not large enough to change the sign of the welfare effects stemming from a change in public debt. I find that eliminating public debt would lead to a 0.8% increase in welfare, while moving to a debt/GDP ratio of 100% would entail a welfare loss of 0.5%. A decomposition analysis shows that growth accounts for approximately 50% of the overall welfare effects.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48447273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
International capital flows, liquidity risk, and monetary policy 国际资本流动、流动性风险和货币政策
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103540
Andre Harrison , Robert R. Reed
{"title":"International capital flows, liquidity risk, and monetary policy","authors":"Andre Harrison ,&nbsp;Robert R. Reed","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103540","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103540","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>In recent years, there has been a large amount of lending coming from the public sector of many developing countries. At the same time, the financial sectors in many advanced countries have issued a large share of portfolio debt to other countries. What are the implications of these events for the global financial system and overall economic activity? Do they have an impact on the transmission channels of </span>monetary policy<span> across countries at different stages of economic development? We investigate these important issues using a micro-founded model of money and banking so that the effects of monetary policy across countries can be meaningfully studied. Notably, the increase in capital outflows to the advanced economy renders monetary policy in developing countries to be less effective, while the effects of monetary policy in advanced economies are more pronounced. Yet, our results indicate that it can indeed be optimal for lower income countries to lend to the advanced world. Importantly, we find that the optimal amount of lending to advanced countries critically depends on the degree of liquidity risk — if it is sufficiently high, then public sector lending to advanced economies is not warranted. Consequently, our results indicate that governments in developing countries should carefully consider how much capital they send abroad to foreign countries.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49367394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantitative analysis of a wealth tax for the United States: Exclusions and expenditures 美国财富税的定量分析:排除与支出
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103559
Rachel Moore, Brandon Pecoraro
{"title":"Quantitative analysis of a wealth tax for the United States: Exclusions and expenditures","authors":"Rachel Moore,&nbsp;Brandon Pecoraro","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103559","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>We use a quantitative overlapping generations model with endogenous tax avoidance and rich tax detail to analyze two major issues in the design of a </span>wealth<span> tax for the United States: the provision of exclusions for certain housing and business equity, and the range of government expenditure<span> options allowed for by additional revenues. First, we find that while the exclusion for owner-occupied housing results in quantitatively insignificant macroeconomic and budgetary effects, the exclusion for privately-held noncorporate business equity results in a shift of productive activity towards that sector which can significantly undermine the revenue-raising potential of the tax. Second, we find that the macroeconomic effects of a given wealth tax regime can vary in magnitudes of contraction or expansion depending on the type of expenditures that are assumed to be financed by the additional revenues.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49901204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Behavioral New Keynesian Models: An empirical assessment 行为新凯恩斯主义模型:实证评估
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103538
Greta Meggiorini
{"title":"Behavioral New Keynesian Models: An empirical assessment","authors":"Greta Meggiorini","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103538","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103538","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper uncovers the fact that cognitive discounting modeled à la Gabaix (2020) is highly generalizable to alternative models and expectational assumptions by offering a mathematically tractable way of introducing behavioral elements in linearized models. This is not the case for other models of bounded rationality, as most derivations, if not all among those proposed up to today, are algebraically too cumbersome to be of general applicability.</p><p>This finding is used to introduce cognitive discounting into the Smets and Wouters (2007) model, hence building and estimating the first micro-founded behavioral medium scale DSGE model, to my knowledge. The empirical estimation shows that the data prefers a substantial degree of bounded rationality even in a model with as many frictions as the Smets and Wouters model.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49881640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Subsistence consumption and natural resource depletion: Can resource-rich low-income countries realize sustainable consumption paths? 生存消费与自然资源枯竭:资源丰富的低收入国家能否实现可持续消费路径?
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103549
Jürgen Antony , Torben Klarl
{"title":"Subsistence consumption and natural resource depletion: Can resource-rich low-income countries realize sustainable consumption paths?","authors":"Jürgen Antony ,&nbsp;Torben Klarl","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103549","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103549","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This contribution is concerned with efficient use of a resource if households are characterized by Stone–Geary preferences with a minimum subsistence level of consumption. Subsistence consumption implies particular minimum requirements for initial endowments with reproducible man-made capital and resources. If these are not met, the economy is not able to cover subsistence consumption such as nutrition. Focusing on the steady state, we find that the equilibrium can be governed by zero or positive growth. The latter occurs if the rate of exogenous technical change exceeds the rate of time preference. In the former case, we can show that Hartwick’s investment rule applies in a steady state. Finally, we calibrate the model for developing but resource-rich countries and trace the full dynamic development of the economy. Furthermore, we evaluate this full adjustment process regarding several sustainability indicators.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43363553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global models for a global pandemic: The impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economies 全球大流行的全球模型：新冠肺炎对欧元区小型经济体的影响
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103551
Pablo Garcia , Pascal Jacquinot , Črt Lenarčič , Matija Lozej , Kostas Mavromatis
{"title":"Global models for a global pandemic: The impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economies","authors":"Pablo Garcia ,&nbsp;Pascal Jacquinot ,&nbsp;Črt Lenarčič ,&nbsp;Matija Lozej ,&nbsp;Kostas Mavromatis","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103551","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103551","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We analyse the COVID-19 pandemic shock on small open economies<span> (SOEs) in the euro area in a unified modelling framework: the Euro Area and the Global Economy model. We find strong negative international spillovers<span> affecting each of the modelled SOEs, stemming not only from the rest of the euro area, but also from the United States and the rest of the world. A lower bound on nominal interest rates in the euro area amplifies these spillovers, especially within the euro area. Furthermore, we find some positive spillovers from the fiscal measures implemented in the Euro area to combat the pandemic, including the new Next Generation EU instrument.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50203547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Taylor rules: Consequences for wealth and income inequality 泰勒法则:财富和收入不平等的后果
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103544
Yoichi Gokan , Stephen J. Turnovsky
{"title":"Taylor rules: Consequences for wealth and income inequality","authors":"Yoichi Gokan ,&nbsp;Stephen J. Turnovsky","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103544","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103544","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This paper compares the consequences of “active” vs. “passive” Taylor rules<span> for wealth and income inequality. Since the distinction is operative only along transitional paths, we compare the implications for two forms of government expenditure that generate such transitions. Our results confirm that the contrasting effects obtained previously for the aggregate economy have significant distributional consequences. For an </span></span><em>active</em> Taylor rule, whether the government increases its expenditure on consumption, or productively, wealth inequality will increase. Expenditure on the two public goods yields divergent paths for income inequality. Government consumption expenditure raises income inequality; productive government expenditure reduces it. If the Taylor rule is <em>passive</em>, an increase in either form of government expenditure reduces wealth inequality initially and over time. Income inequality initially increases, but declines over time, although remaining above its previous steady-state level.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44473873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Misallocation of talent, teachers’ human capital, and development in Brazil 巴西人才配置不当、教师人力资本与发展
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103542
Fernando Barros Jr , Bruno R. Delalibera , Luciano Nakabashi , Marcos J. Ribeiro
{"title":"Misallocation of talent, teachers’ human capital, and development in Brazil","authors":"Fernando Barros Jr ,&nbsp;Bruno R. Delalibera ,&nbsp;Luciano Nakabashi ,&nbsp;Marcos J. Ribeiro","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103542","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103542","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, we investigate the allocation of talent in an economy where teachers play a critical role in developing the human capital of the workforce. To this end, we formulate a Roy model with externality in the occupational choice, as the quantity and quality of teachers are key determinants of workers’ human capital. Our analysis suggests that when individuals with greater abilities opt for teaching careers, the entire workforce benefits. However, frictions in the labor and educational goods markets may lead to a suboptimal allocation of talent and hinder economic growth and development. Our model is calibrated to the Brazilian economy, and our findings reveal a negative correlation between frictions in the teacher’s occupation and per capita output in the Brazilian states. Our results indicate that eliminating friction in the labor market could result in a 16.94% increase in Brazilian income.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49881639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Business cycle synchronization and African monetary union: A wavelet analysis 经济周期同步与非洲货币联盟:小波分析
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103527
Gislain Stéphane Gandjon Fankem, Lucien Cédric Fouda Mbesa
{"title":"Business cycle synchronization and African monetary union: A wavelet analysis","authors":"Gislain Stéphane Gandjon Fankem,&nbsp;Lucien Cédric Fouda Mbesa","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103527","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103527","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we analyze the feasibility of an African monetary union based on the necessary condition of business cycle synchronization. In this regard, we examine the synchronization of growth cycles between five Regional Economic Communities (RECs) that will have to merge to form an African monetary union: the East African Community; the Economic Community of Central African States; the Economic Community of West African States; the Southern African Development Community; and the Arab Maghreb Union. To do this, we use a new continuous wavelet approach. Results show evidence of heterogeneous synchronization across time and horizons between the RECs. Controlling for the influence of some countries' membership in several RECs at the same time, the synchronization landscape does not improve. Overall, our results suggest that business cycle synchronization across the RECs has not yet reached a sufficient level to allow African countries to benefit from a common monetary policy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47900138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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