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Do central bank words matter in emerging markets? Evidence from Mexico 央行的话对新兴市场有影响吗?来自墨西哥的证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103570
Pavel Solís
{"title":"Do central bank words matter in emerging markets? Evidence from Mexico","authors":"Pavel Solís","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103570","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103570","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper analyzes the price and quantity effects of monetary policy statements in an emerging market economy. Surprises in monetary policy are identified using intraday data on asset prices around monetary policy announcements in Mexico. I find that asset prices and the portfolio flows of domestic and foreign investors respond strongly and persistently to both news about the policy rate and guidance about its future path communicated via statements. The ability to manage expectations about future policy via statements is thus not exclusive to central banks in advanced economies and does not require the zero lower bound to be binding.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103570"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91765603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles 季节温度变化与经济周期
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103568
Manuel Linsenmeier
{"title":"Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles","authors":"Manuel Linsenmeier","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103568","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103568","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the role of temperature as a driver of seasonal economic cycles. The study first presents a novel dataset of seasonal temperature and seasonal GDP. Stylised facts show that seasonal economic cycles are much more diverse than previous research suggested. The study then attributes seasonal economic cycles to temperature variability. For causal identification, the study proposes a novel econometric approach that accounts for expectations. The results suggest that seasonal temperature has a statistically significantly positive and economically large effect on seasonal GDP. Overall, a substantial share of seasonality in GDP timeseries appears to be due to weather. For a subsample of European countries, the effect of temperature can be attributed to sectors that are relatively more exposed to ambient environmental conditions. Projections of climate change suggest that seasonal economic cycles might substantially change in the future, with larger cycles expected for about half of the countries in the sample.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103568"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016407042300068X/pdfft?md5=a4e0e5a5d3261e6a3cb971ebb68e22b5&pid=1-s2.0-S016407042300068X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92063261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Efficiency of short-time work schemes and the role of monetary policy 短期工作计划的效率与货币政策的作用
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103565
Stefan Wilhelm
{"title":"Efficiency of short-time work schemes and the role of monetary policy","authors":"Stefan Wilhelm","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103565","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103565","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines the relationship between the utilization of short-time work, inflation dynamics and monetary policy. Using a New Keynesian general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions, this study is a first to point out that short-time work can give rise to deflationary tendencies which may impact its efficacy, contingent on the monetary environment. While aggressive inflation targeting supports the stabilizing employment effects of short-time work, only little stabilization is observed when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound. Our analysis also indicates that expanding the eligibility criteria may not deliver additional stabilization, whilst lowering the costs of short-time work could enhance employment even more.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103565"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92131473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of legislated tax changes on the trade balance: Empirical evidence for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom 立法税收变化对贸易平衡的影响:美国、德国和英国的经验证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103564
Bernd Hayo, Sascha Mierzwa
{"title":"The effect of legislated tax changes on the trade balance: Empirical evidence for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom","authors":"Bernd Hayo,&nbsp;Sascha Mierzwa","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103564","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>This study uses a narrative account of quarterly discretionary changes in tax liabilities from 1974Q4 to 2018Q2 in a </span>VAR setting to examine whether legislative tax changes affect the trade balance in the US, Germany, and the UK. Six different types of legislative tax changes are considered, including </span>indirect tax<span> changes, personal income tax changes, and business tax changes. The results show that, in general, reductions in aggregated tax liabilities tend to reduce exports in the US and the UK, whereas imports tend to increase, leading to a fall in the net-exports-to-GDP ratio. However, this pattern does not necessarily hold for disaggregated tax changes. Moreover, the results for Germany differ from those for the US and the UK. Overall, the economic magnitude of the estimated effects of tax changes on trade variables is relatively small.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103564"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49866994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial concerns and the marginal propensity to consume in COVID times: Evidence from UK survey data COVID时期的财务担忧和边际消费倾向:来自英国调查数据的证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103563
Bruno Albuquerque , Georgina Green
{"title":"Financial concerns and the marginal propensity to consume in COVID times: Evidence from UK survey data","authors":"Bruno Albuquerque ,&nbsp;Georgina Green","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103563","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study how household concerns about their future financial situation may affect the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a representative survey of UK households to compute the MPC from a hypothetical transfer of £500. We find that household expectations play a key role in determining differences in MPCs across households: households that are concerned about not being able to make ends meet have a 20% higher MPC than other households. Our findings suggest that policies targeted at vulnerable and financially distressed households may prove more effective in stimulating demand than providing stimulus payments to all households.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103563"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49866992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
AI revolution and coordination failure: Theory and evidence 人工智能革命与协调失败:理论与证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103561
Burak Ünveren, Tunç Durmaz, Seçkin Sunal
{"title":"AI revolution and coordination failure: Theory and evidence","authors":"Burak Ünveren,&nbsp;Tunç Durmaz,&nbsp;Seçkin Sunal","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103561","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103561","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the coordination failure problem inherent within the 21st-century automation revolution. First, we build a general equilibrium model with labor-saving artificial intelligence (AI) technology that is developed through R&amp;D investments in automation. The model exhibits multiple market equilibria due to a positive feedback loop between AI investments and </span>general economic activities. The available evidence supports our model's predictions regarding the interaction between AI technologies, income inequality, and wages. We also find strong empirical support for multiple equilibria in AI development—the primary prediction of our model. These empirical and theoretical results suggest that AI development can cause coordination failures, thereby creating leaders and followers in automation. However, according to our policy analysis, R&amp;D subsidies and public-private partnerships are efficient coordination devices to tackle this problem.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103561"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49901205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do more frequent price adjustments guarantee less effective monetary stimulus when uncertainty rises? 当不确定性上升时，更频繁的价格调整是否保证货币刺激的有效性降低?
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103562
Kwangyong Park
{"title":"Do more frequent price adjustments guarantee less effective monetary stimulus when uncertainty rises?","authors":"Kwangyong Park","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103562","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103562","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Probably not. When firms face higher uncertainty, they may reset their prices more frequently, but this does not necessarily mean that monetary policy is less effective in boosting real activity. In fact, the real effect of monetary policy may be strengthened because firms shift their attention away from the monetary policy shock to productivity shocks to minimize profit loss due to suboptimal price-setting. This conjecture is supported by a model with an information processing capacity constraint, which shows that monetary policy becomes more effective in stimulating the economy during periods of high uncertainty. Moreover, the model’s key characteristics and moments of price distribution match those observed in the micro price data.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103562"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49866993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the welfare costs of business cycles: Beyond nondurable goods 商业周期的福利成本:超越非耐用品
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103560
Fernando Barros Jr. , Gabriel T. Couto , Fábio A.R. Gomes
{"title":"On the welfare costs of business cycles: Beyond nondurable goods","authors":"Fernando Barros Jr. ,&nbsp;Gabriel T. Couto ,&nbsp;Fábio A.R. Gomes","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103560","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103560","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper constitutes the first effort to measure the welfare costs of economic cycles considering that the consumer derives utility from the consumption of nondurable goods and services and the stock of durable goods. To accomplish such a task, we put forward a novel approach based on a nonseparable utility function. As a result, we take into account the complementarities among the consumption categories and the correlations of the shocks in those series. Our findings for the U.S. economy suggest that the single-good approach in the literature tends to underestimate the welfare costs of business cycles.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103560"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44702568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effects of monetary and government spending policy on economic inequality 货币和政府支出政策对经济不平等的影响
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103547
Saroj Dhital , Senyuan Jiang , Jillian Reese
{"title":"Effects of monetary and government spending policy on economic inequality","authors":"Saroj Dhital ,&nbsp;Senyuan Jiang ,&nbsp;Jillian Reese","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103547","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103547","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using detailed micro-level income and expenditure data, we study the effects of monetary and government spending policy shocks on income and expenditure inequality<span> in the US from 1990 to 2018. We find that expansionary monetary and government spending policy shocks systematically decrease income, disposable income and expenditure inequality. There is evidence of time variation on the effects and monetary policy<span> and transfer payment shocks. Various impulse responses suggest that the impacts of the policy shocks increase during and after the Great Recession. The responses of income and expenditures of households at different percentiles suggest that expansionary monetary and government spending policy have a larger positive impact on households with low income and expenditures relative to those at the top of the distribution. We do not find evidence of the significant impact of Quantitative Easing policies on income inequality, however, expenditure inequality appear to increase due to the policies.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 103547"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45141109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Big Brother is also being watched: Measuring fiscal credibility “老大哥”也受到了关注:衡量财政可信度
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103548
Nicolas End
{"title":"Big Brother is also being watched: Measuring fiscal credibility","authors":"Nicolas End","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103548","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103548","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Fiscal policy is less credible than monetary policy, due to political economy issues. This paper provides an explicit measure of fiscal credibility, based on the anchoring of private expectations onto official targets. It documents how credibility varied among a sample of 27 European countries over 1995–2019. Credibility behaves like a stock of trust that is affected by fiscal policy, past performance, and institutions (fiscal rules and councils). This paper highlights how regular government communication – budgets and fiscal plans – is crucial to anchor expectations and buttress credibility. Last, it shows that credibility is associated with better sovereign financing conditions. Governments should thus strive to maintain their credibility.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 103548"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48455219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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