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Original sin: Fiscal rules and government debt in foreign currency in developing countries 原罪：发展中国家的财政规则和外币政府债务
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103600
Ablam Estel Apeti , Bao-We-Wal Bambe , Jean-Louis Combes , Eyah Denise Edoh
{"title":"Original sin: Fiscal rules and government debt in foreign currency in developing countries","authors":"Ablam Estel Apeti ,&nbsp;Bao-We-Wal Bambe ,&nbsp;Jean-Louis Combes ,&nbsp;Eyah Denise Edoh","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103600","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103600","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Developing economies often borrow abroad in foreign currency, which exposes them to the problem of “original sin.” Although the literature on the issue is relatively extensive, there is limited discussion about the role of fiscal frameworks, such as fiscal rules, in addressing original sin. Using a panel of 59 developing countries from 1990-2020 and applying the entropy balancing method, this study reveals that fiscal rules play a crucial role in reducing government debt in foreign currency, and that the effects are statistically and economically significant and robust. Furthermore, we find that the effectiveness of fiscal rules in curbing original sin is enhanced by factors such as the strengthening of the rule itself, improved fiscal discipline before the reform’s adoption, financial development, financial openness, exchange rate flexibility, the level of economic development, and sound institutions. Finally, transmission channels analysis reveals that the effect of fiscal rules on original sin is driven by fiscal and monetary policy credibility.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"80 ","pages":"Article 103600"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070424000156/pdfft?md5=6e2d73f80f5d45c9b05b856e98e35ac6&pid=1-s2.0-S0164070424000156-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140345196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exchange rate dynamics and consumption of traded goods 汇率动态与贸易品消费
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103602
Maxym Chaban
{"title":"Exchange rate dynamics and consumption of traded goods","authors":"Maxym Chaban","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103602","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103602","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) aggregator of domestic and foreign goods is assumed in virtually any model of international macroeconomics with multiple traded goods. If baskets of traded goods are allocated optimally across countries, the CES aggregator links trade flows to exchange rate dynamics implying a condition for optimal allocation of individual traded goods across countries. The condition holds irrespectively of assumptions about preferences or endowment processes. This paper analyzes optimal allocation of traded goods empirically for 9 OECD countries and finds that it is mostly rejected by data. The finding casts doubts on the ability of international macroeconomic models to jointly explain dynamics of consumption and exchange rates.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"80 ","pages":"Article 103602"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016407042400017X/pdfft?md5=ed64cf0c93efe3af780fe1f427b0565a&pid=1-s2.0-S016407042400017X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140332753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Economic uncertainty, households’ credit situations, and higher education 经济不确定性、家庭信贷状况和高等教育
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103598
Niraj P. Koirala , Dhiroj Prasad Koirala , Linus Nyiwul , Zhining Hu
{"title":"Economic uncertainty, households’ credit situations, and higher education","authors":"Niraj P. Koirala ,&nbsp;Dhiroj Prasad Koirala ,&nbsp;Linus Nyiwul ,&nbsp;Zhining Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103598","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103598","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we study the relationship between economic uncertainty, households’ credit situations, and educational outcomes. Using the System Generalized Methods of Moments (SYS-GMM) on educational and economic data from the World Bank and IMF, we find that economic uncertainty and households’ access to credit have positive impacts on higher education. Further analyses suggest that economic uncertainty and households’ access to credit have heterogeneous effects on educational outcomes at the tertiary level, by gender and development status. Specifically, we find that economic uncertainties expand enrollments in developed countries and contract them in developing economies. In addition, access to credit has a more pronounced positive impact on educational outcomes in developing nations compared to developed ones. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that household credit coupled with economic uncertainty decreases women’s educational outcomes in higher education, posing a serious threat to gender equality in higher education. Lastly, we find that monetary policy appears to play a role in these results. These findings remain robust to alternative proxies of economic uncertainty and approach such as the Instrumental Variable (IV) regression method, which uses a political database on government changes and ideological gaps between cabinets as instruments. In general, the findings emphasize the enduring influence of economic uncertainties, typically associated with business cycles, on long-term aspects such as education.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"80 ","pages":"Article 103598"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070424000132/pdfft?md5=3e4482aa98ed36da8de716e4c3c57f70&pid=1-s2.0-S0164070424000132-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140209255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The role of local currency pricing in the international transmission effects of a government spending shock in an economy with vertical production linkage and foreign direct investment 在具有纵向生产联系和外国直接投资的经济体中，本币定价在政府支出冲击的国际传导效应中的作用
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103588
Kohjiro Dohwa
{"title":"The role of local currency pricing in the international transmission effects of a government spending shock in an economy with vertical production linkage and foreign direct investment","authors":"Kohjiro Dohwa","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103588","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103588","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>By constructing a two-country model with asymmetry in price-setting behavior between home and foreign intermediate goods firms, vertical production and trade, and endogenous entry of three types of final goods firms, this paper examines the effects of a home government spending shock. In particular, it focuses on the role of asymmetry in price-setting behavior between home and foreign intermediate goods firms. A home government spending shock is shown to result in the entry of multinational firms from both countries, an increase in the aggregate outputs of both countries, a deterioration in home welfare, and an improvement in foreign welfare. In addition, with an increase in the ratio of home and/or foreign intermediate goods firms setting their export prices in the local currency, the effects of this shock on the entry of home multinational firms, the increase in aggregate foreign output, the deterioration in home welfare and the improvement in foreign welfare are shown to be weakened, while the effects of this shock on the entry of foreign multinational firms and the increase in aggregate home output are intensified.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"80 ","pages":"Article 103588"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140112822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary policy and reserve requirements with a zero-interest digital euro 零利率数字欧元的货币政策和准备金要求
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-02-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103597
Paolo Fegatelli
{"title":"Monetary policy and reserve requirements with a zero-interest digital euro","authors":"Paolo Fegatelli","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103597","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103597","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study presents an analytical framework to investigate the use of reserve requirements as an indirect instrument to manage CBDC flows in an environment with significantly positive rates. This would complement two other possible instruments: hard limits, whose sole use may raise some concerns, and CBDC remuneration, which in a positive rate environment is not considered a viable option. As in the case of emerging market economies with a flexible exchange rate, in a CBDC framework reserve requirements could be used as a countercyclical tool for macroeconomic stabilization to influence bank lending/funding conditions consistently with the monetary policy stance. In an ample-reserves regime, the effectiveness of this tool would be favored by retaining the interest rate on required reserves and the interest rate on excess reserves (the real key policy rate) as two distinct policy instruments, with the former remaining stable below the latter.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"80 ","pages":"Article 103597"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139920283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The transmission of monetary policy shocks through the markets for reserves and money 货币政策冲击通过储备市场和货币市场的传导
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103590
Michael T. Belongia , Peter N. Ireland
{"title":"The transmission of monetary policy shocks through the markets for reserves and money","authors":"Michael T. Belongia ,&nbsp;Peter N. Ireland","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103590","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103590","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper identifies supply and demand curves for bank reserves and a Divisia aggregate of monetary services within a structural vector autoregressive time-series model. Estimated over four sample periods spanning 1967 through 2020, the model illustrates how monetary policy actions can be interpreted with reference to their initial impact on bank reserves and the federal funds rate and their subsequent effects on Divisia money, nominal consumption spending, the aggregate nominal price level, and the unemployment rate. Model estimates attribute strong inflationary effects to monetary policy in the late 1960s and 1970s and also show that changes in the supply of reserves associated with the Fed's large-scale asset purchases since 2008 worked, as intended, to offset deflationary pressures and reduce unemployment. The model describes a much richer monetary policy process than one focused on interest rates alone.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"80 ","pages":"Article 103590"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139901161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Household heterogeneity and the price puzzle in a new Keynesian model 新凯恩斯主义模型中的家庭异质性和价格之谜
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103587
Daisuke Ida
{"title":"Household heterogeneity and the price puzzle in a new Keynesian model","authors":"Daisuke Ida","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103587","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103587","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper provides a new insight into the price puzzle using a new Keynesian (NK) model with household heterogeneity. To do this, we adopt a tractable heterogeneous-agent NK (THANK) model that nests the two-agent NK (TANK) and representative-agent NK models. We first demonstrate that when the share of liquidity-constrained (LC) consumers is high, the degree of inflation<span> stabilization in the Taylor rule<span> crucially affects whether the price puzzle occurs in the TANK model. Second, we show that regardless of the share of LC consumers, the price puzzle disappears in the THANK model with a discounted dynamic IS (DIS) curve. In contrast, for a compounded DIS curve, a higher share of LC consumers generates the price puzzle. Finally, we find that even in the case of a compounded DIS curve, reinforced interest rate smoothing can prevent the price puzzle.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103587"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139474714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
FDI flows and sudden stops in small open economies 小型开放经济体的外国直接投资流动和突然停止
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103586
Sergio Villalvazo
{"title":"FDI flows and sudden stops in small open economies","authors":"Sergio Villalvazo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103586","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103586","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Why are balance of payments<span><span> crises, characterized by Sudden Stops of capital inflows, more frequent in emerging economies than advanced economies? This paper argues that differences in the composition of the financial account flows explain 30 percent of the gap in the probability of a crisis. I document that although advanced economies have, on average, </span>zero net<span> foreign direct investment (FDI), they have sufficient FDI outflows to act as buffer savings during financial distress. To quantify the effect of this FDI channel on the probability of a crisis, I propose a small open economy model with a loan-to-value collateral constraint and FDI vulnerable to government confiscation risk. The calibrated model suggests that if an emerging economy increases its capital-to-GDP ratio and eliminates government confiscation risk, it would reduce the probability of a Sudden Stop from 2.9 to 2.7 percent, while simultaneously increasing its debt-to-GDP ratio from 47 to 65 percent.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103586"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139374263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The political economy of inequality, mobility and redistribution 不平等、流动性和再分配的政治经济学
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103585
Ignacio P. Campomanes
{"title":"The political economy of inequality, mobility and redistribution","authors":"Ignacio P. Campomanes","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103585","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103585","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How does the interaction between inequality<span> and social mobility affect the choice of fiscal policy? I analyze this question in a model of democratic politics with imperfect tax enforcement, where the ability of individuals to evade taxes limits the amount of redistribution in the economy. Social mobility creates an insurance motive that increases voluntary compliance, favoring the tax enforcement process. In such an environment, redistributive pressures brought about by an increase in inequality are only implementable in highly mobile societies. On the contrary, when mobility is low, higher inequality reduces tax rates and does not translate into higher redistribution. Descriptive evidence based on a sample of 71 countries for the period 1980–2015 shows correlations among inequality, mobility and redistribution in line with the predictions of the model.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103585"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139069944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unveiling the impact of income taxes on inequality in a HACT model 在现金转移统一办法模型中揭示所得税对不平等的影响
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103581
Francisco Parro
{"title":"Unveiling the impact of income taxes on inequality in a HACT model","authors":"Francisco Parro","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103581","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103581","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>I introduce a tax shock into a “standard” heterogeneous agent model in continuous time (HACT) to quantify the effect of an income tax on </span>inequality. I find that an income tax, collecting 15% of output, reduces the </span>Gini coefficient<span> by up to 16.9% in an economy with a perfect credit market and up to 24.3% in financial autarky. The tax has a modest effect on production labor income inequality, reduces inequality in entrepreneurial income under financial autarky, but raises it when entrepreneurs operate in a perfect credit market. I also explore the effect of the tax on other well-known income inequality measures discussed in the literature.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103581"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138681468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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