发布求助
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献

Journal of Macroeconomics最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
The magnifying role of the banking sector during depressions 银行业在萧条时期的放大作用
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103569
Paulo Júlio , José R. Maria
{"title":"The magnifying role of the banking sector during depressions","authors":"Paulo Júlio ,&nbsp;José R. Maria","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103569","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Is there a magnifying role of the banking sector during depressions? How can a financial perturbation, possibly small-sized, create large impacts on output and enduring recessions? What is the role played by the massive stock of due claims brought about by a financial crisis? We address these questions by putting forth a general equilibrium model endowed with a banking system in which due claims – henceforth named due loans – and occasionally binding credit restrictions coexist and their effects reinforce each other. Under “bad” financially-driven perturbations due loans hike and the concomitant opportunity, holding, regulatory, and impairment costs trigger sizable increases in external finance <em>premia</em> and promote credit restrictiveness. Firms’ net worth collapses as they are called in to finance banks’ problems, and their ability to invest and accumulate capital becomes compromised. The amplification effect can be very large: the full-fledged banking model may only require a perturbation of one-tenth the size of a plain vanilla version to deliver the same output drop at the trough. Effects are non-linear, since credit restrictions remain slack on the boundary of the steady state, and asymmetric, since these restrictions play no role whatsoever under “good shocks.”</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103569"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92063262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trust in public institutions, inequality, and digital interaction: Empirical evidence from European Union countries 对公共机构的信任、不平等和数字互动：来自欧盟国家的经验证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103582
Flaviana Palmisano , Agnese Sacchi
{"title":"Trust in public institutions, inequality, and digital interaction: Empirical evidence from European Union countries","authors":"Flaviana Palmisano ,&nbsp;Agnese Sacchi","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103582","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103582","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Declining institutional trust is one of the central problems in modern societies. Identifying its determinants, among which inequality, is fundamental for designing suitable interventions to restore confidence in institutions and preserve the social contract. We study the relationship between the two phenomena for EU-28 countries over the period 2003–2019. We use OLS and IV estimations to show that increasing income inequality is significantly associated with reduced trust in national governments. We also find that citizens’ digital interaction with the public administrations represents a mitigating channel as it contributes to shrinking the adverse effect of inequality on institutional trust, especially for more vulnerable categories in society, such as individuals with low educational attainment and those who are unemployed. These new insights might be particularly helpful for the government's agenda to meet transparency goals and provide more digital public services. From a policy viewpoint, redistribution policies combined with a well-established <em>e-relationship</em> between citizens and governments may be the road to restore trust in institutions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103582"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070423000824/pdfft?md5=56bdb81356349e5e8e03aa84c323eb21&pid=1-s2.0-S0164070423000824-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138681258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
FDI flows and sudden stops in small open economies 小型开放经济体的外国直接投资流动和突然停止
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103586
Sergio Villalvazo
{"title":"FDI flows and sudden stops in small open economies","authors":"Sergio Villalvazo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103586","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103586","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Why are balance of payments<span><span> crises, characterized by Sudden Stops of capital inflows, more frequent in emerging economies than advanced economies? This paper argues that differences in the composition of the financial account flows explain 30 percent of the gap in the probability of a crisis. I document that although advanced economies have, on average, </span>zero net<span> foreign direct investment (FDI), they have sufficient FDI outflows to act as buffer savings during financial distress. To quantify the effect of this FDI channel on the probability of a crisis, I propose a small open economy model with a loan-to-value collateral constraint and FDI vulnerable to government confiscation risk. The calibrated model suggests that if an emerging economy increases its capital-to-GDP ratio and eliminates government confiscation risk, it would reduce the probability of a Sudden Stop from 2.9 to 2.7 percent, while simultaneously increasing its debt-to-GDP ratio from 47 to 65 percent.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103586"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139374263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The limits of limitless debt 无限债务的限制
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103567
Kent Osband, Valerio Filoso, Salvatore Capasso
{"title":"The limits of limitless debt","authors":"Kent Osband,&nbsp;Valerio Filoso,&nbsp;Salvatore Capasso","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103567","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103567","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>While low real interest rates and issuing public debt in fiat money safeguard against rising sovereign debt-to-GDP ratios, evidence shows that high debt often precedes default, and credit spreads may not signal imminent risk.</p><p>We offer a simple way to model the trade-offs using local martingales. On the one hand, it acknowledges that large debt overhangs tend to raise default risks. On the other hand, it allows sovereigns to roll over debt regardless of long-term fiscal solvency. The combination allows credit spreads to stay very low for decades, eventually spiral out of control and trigger a default. Hence, neither the reassurance of low spreads nor the alarm from growing overhang should automatically prevail.</p><p>To illustrate the trade-offs, we review the ebb and flow of US sovereign debt burdens since World War II. Between record peacetime debt-to-GDP ratios and weakened fiscal discipline, an exemplary double-or-triple-A credit rating for the US no longer seems justified. Moreover, the current outlook is poor, with debt growing much faster than GDP and scant prospects of contraction.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103567"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070423000678/pdfft?md5=92a8e818f087c79208806bca9f00fde6&pid=1-s2.0-S0164070423000678-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135411489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Government spending multipliers: Is there a difference between government consumption and investment purchases? 政府支出乘数：政府消费和投资购买有区别吗？
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103584
Alfred A. Haug , Anna Sznajderska
{"title":"Government spending multipliers: Is there a difference between government consumption and investment purchases?","authors":"Alfred A. Haug ,&nbsp;Anna Sznajderska","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103584","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103584","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper empirically studies the U.S. multiplier effects of government investment, government consumption and total government purchases on output. We explore dependencies of the multipliers on states of the economy, measured in different ways. Using local projections with instrumental variables, we find that a model without state-dependencies and using total government spending (instead of its components) provides the best fit to post-WWII data. These results are robust to various alternative specifications. We account for the COVID-19 period with a pandemic stringency index and for monetary policy shocks with a shadow interest rate. The government spending multiplier is approximately 0.5.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103584"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070423000848/pdfft?md5=2159a5b0ff3c3bdbaf8a38b1f53ea620&pid=1-s2.0-S0164070423000848-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138681337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Household heterogeneity and the price puzzle in a new Keynesian model 新凯恩斯主义模型中的家庭异质性和价格之谜
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103587
Daisuke Ida
{"title":"Household heterogeneity and the price puzzle in a new Keynesian model","authors":"Daisuke Ida","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103587","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103587","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper provides a new insight into the price puzzle using a new Keynesian (NK) model with household heterogeneity. To do this, we adopt a tractable heterogeneous-agent NK (THANK) model that nests the two-agent NK (TANK) and representative-agent NK models. We first demonstrate that when the share of liquidity-constrained (LC) consumers is high, the degree of inflation<span> stabilization in the Taylor rule<span> crucially affects whether the price puzzle occurs in the TANK model. Second, we show that regardless of the share of LC consumers, the price puzzle disappears in the THANK model with a discounted dynamic IS (DIS) curve. In contrast, for a compounded DIS curve, a higher share of LC consumers generates the price puzzle. Finally, we find that even in the case of a compounded DIS curve, reinforced interest rate smoothing can prevent the price puzzle.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103587"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139474714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Redistributive policy and R&D-based growth 再分配政策和以研发为基础的增长
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103583
Ken Tabata
{"title":"Redistributive policy and R&D-based growth","authors":"Ken Tabata","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103583","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103583","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines how redistributive policy that attempts to reduce inequality by taxing the bequests of the rich and redistributing the revenue to the poor affects economic growth in an overlapping generations model of R&amp;D-based growth with both product development and process innovation. We show that such a policy simultaneously increases growth and reduces inequality in the long-run. When the market structure adjusts, partially reducing inequality in the short-run, the effect of redistributive policy on economic growth depends on the values of the social return to variety parameter. However, when the market structure adjusts fully in the longrun, the redistributive policy decreases the entry of new firms but raises economic growth and reduces inequality.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103583"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138681207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: The Effect of Guided vs Non-Guided Inflation Questions 测量家庭通胀感知和预期:指导性与非指导性通胀问题的影响
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-08-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103558
Bernd Hayo , Pierre-Guillaume Méon
{"title":"Measuring Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: The Effect of Guided vs Non-Guided Inflation Questions","authors":"Bernd Hayo ,&nbsp;Pierre-Guillaume Méon","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103558","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>An experiment using a representative survey of the German population shows that letting respondents report a number rather than asking them to choose from a list of predefined ranges lowers the response rate for both perceived past and expected inflation<span> and decreases (increases) reported past (expected) inflation<span>. Income, education, gender, objective and subjective knowledge about monetary policy, and political affiliation affect the effect's size but not its sign. East and West German respondents who were 15 or older when the Berlin Wall fell have reactions different from those who were younger at that time, which supports the ‘impressionable years’ hypothesis based on different inflation experiences.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103558"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49901203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial concerns and the marginal propensity to consume in COVID times: Evidence from UK survey data COVID时期的财务担忧和边际消费倾向:来自英国调查数据的证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103563
Bruno Albuquerque , Georgina Green
{"title":"Financial concerns and the marginal propensity to consume in COVID times: Evidence from UK survey data","authors":"Bruno Albuquerque ,&nbsp;Georgina Green","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103563","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study how household concerns about their future financial situation may affect the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a representative survey of UK households to compute the MPC from a hypothetical transfer of £500. We find that household expectations play a key role in determining differences in MPCs across households: households that are concerned about not being able to make ends meet have a 20% higher MPC than other households. Our findings suggest that policies targeted at vulnerable and financially distressed households may prove more effective in stimulating demand than providing stimulus payments to all households.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103563"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49866992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
AI revolution and coordination failure: Theory and evidence 人工智能革命与协调失败:理论与证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103561
Burak Ünveren, Tunç Durmaz, Seçkin Sunal
{"title":"AI revolution and coordination failure: Theory and evidence","authors":"Burak Ünveren,&nbsp;Tunç Durmaz,&nbsp;Seçkin Sunal","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103561","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103561","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the coordination failure problem inherent within the 21st-century automation revolution. First, we build a general equilibrium model with labor-saving artificial intelligence (AI) technology that is developed through R&amp;D investments in automation. The model exhibits multiple market equilibria due to a positive feedback loop between AI investments and </span>general economic activities. The available evidence supports our model's predictions regarding the interaction between AI technologies, income inequality, and wages. We also find strong empirical support for multiple equilibria in AI development—the primary prediction of our model. These empirical and theoretical results suggest that AI development can cause coordination failures, thereby creating leaders and followers in automation. However, according to our policy analysis, R&amp;D subsidies and public-private partnerships are efficient coordination devices to tackle this problem.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103561"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49901205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
首页 上一页
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整，为了账户安全，请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们：info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务，方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号：604180095
Book学术官方微信
小红书