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Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus 政策协调和财政刺激的有效性
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103489
Hyeongwoo Kim , Peng Shao , Shuwei Zhang
{"title":"Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus","authors":"Hyeongwoo Kim ,&nbsp;Peng Shao ,&nbsp;Shuwei Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103489","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103489","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper shows that government spending shocks in the U.S. has become ineffective due to lack of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies. Employing the post-war U.S. data, we report strong stimulus effects of fiscal policy during the pre-Volcker era, which rapidly dissipate as the sample period is shifted toward the post-Volcker era. We explain the causes of this phenomena via a sentiment channel. Employing the Survey of Professional Forecasters data, we show that forecasters tend to systematically overestimate real GDP growth in response to positive innovations in government spending when policies coordinate well with each other. On the other hand, they are likely to underestimate real GDP responses when the monetary authority maintains a hawkish stance that conflicts with the fiscal stimulus. The fiscal stimulus, under such circumstances, generates consumer pessimism, which reduces private spending and ultimately weakens the output effects of fiscal policy. We further report statistical test results that confirm our claims.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 103489"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47562310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Does wealth inequality affect the transmission of monetary policy? 财富不平等是否影响货币政策的传导?
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103474
Alexander Matusche , Johannes Wacks
{"title":"Does wealth inequality affect the transmission of monetary policy?","authors":"Alexander Matusche ,&nbsp;Johannes Wacks","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>We provide evidence that higher wealth<span> inequality between households is associated with stronger real effects of monetary policy. First, we use state-dependent local projections to show that the US and the UK exhibited stronger real effects of monetary policy in times of higher wealth inequality. Second, we measure wealth inequality within US states and document that economic activity responds more strongly to </span></span>interest rate changes in states where wealth is distributed more unequally. Third, we show that ECB monetary policy has stronger real effects in Euro Area countries with higher wealth inequality.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 103474"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44507719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
A political economy approach to endogenous industrial policies 内生产业政策的政治经济学方法
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103499
Wan-Jung Cheng
{"title":"A political economy approach to endogenous industrial policies","authors":"Wan-Jung Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103499","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103499","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper uses a political economy perspective to study the endogenous formation of economic policies and its interplay with political institutions. This paper provides a novel view that both the institutions and economic development status are essential factors in endogenously determining economic policies. The model aims to explain both the differences in the degree of adopting industrial policies as well as the differences in the types of industrial policies being implemented. Using a concise framework with two country-specific characteristics, the baseline model can capture three main types of industrial policy platforms of interest. In a country where voters’ political awareness is positively skewed and press freedom is relatively low, pro-heavy industry policies would be present most of the time; South Korea is representative of this type of countries. In a country where voters’ political awareness is positively skewed and press freedom is relatively high, there is usually an active industrial policy, though the target of the policy changes over time. Specifically, the policy is favoring the industry of which the industry-specific TFP is relatively high; Japan is representative of this type of countries. In a country where voters’ political awareness is negatively skewed and press freedom is relatively high, there is usually no active industrial policy; the U.S. is representative of this type of countries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 103499"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49085469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring the size and dynamics of U.S. state-level shadow economies using a dynamic general equilibrium model with trends 使用具有趋势的动态一般均衡模型衡量美国州级影子经济的规模和动态
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103491
Emily C. Marshall , James Saunoris , Mario Solis-Garcia , Trang Do
{"title":"Measuring the size and dynamics of U.S. state-level shadow economies using a dynamic general equilibrium model with trends","authors":"Emily C. Marshall ,&nbsp;James Saunoris ,&nbsp;Mario Solis-Garcia ,&nbsp;Trang Do","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103491","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103491","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>We use a two-sector dynamic deterministic general equilibrium model that specifically accounts for trends among time-series variables to estimate the size of the </span>shadow economy<span><span> for the 50 U.S. states from 1999 to 2019, following Solis-Garcia and Xie (2018, 2022). This paper improves on existing measures of the state-level shadow economy (such as the multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) methodology by Wiseman (2013a)). In particular, this new measure is based on theoretical foundations, extends the previous measure to include the Great Recession, includes dollar value estimates of the shadow economy, and produces considerably more variation over time and across states. Furthermore, we explore determinants of this new shadow economy measure using a panel vector </span>autoregressive model<span> and find that, on average, states with higher levels of economic freedom, lower regulatory barriers, and larger real GDP have smaller shadow economies. States with bigger governments, on average, have larger shadow economies, and the effect of corruption on shadow economic activity is non-linear, with a positive initial and subsequent negative impact.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 103491"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48754873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Consumer preferences, the demand for Divisia money, and the welfare costs of inflation 消费者偏好，对分立货币的需求，以及通货膨胀带来的福利成本
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103490
Apostolos Serletis , Libo Xu
{"title":"Consumer preferences, the demand for Divisia money, and the welfare costs of inflation","authors":"Apostolos Serletis ,&nbsp;Libo Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103490","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103490","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This paper uses neoclassical demand theory to calculate the welfare costs of inflation<span>. It considers the demand interactions between money, consumption goods, and leisure, relaxes the assumption of fixed consumer preferences, and addresses the inter-related problems of estimation of money demand functions, instability of money demand relations, and monetary aggregation. It makes full use of the relevant economic theory and </span></span>econometrics and generates inference in terms of long-run welfare costs of inflation that is internally consistent with the data and models used.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 103490"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45691721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany 特定年龄的创业和PAYG：德国的公共养老金
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103488
Burkhard Heer , Mark Trede
{"title":"Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany","authors":"Burkhard Heer ,&nbsp;Mark Trede","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103488","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103488","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We present new empirical evidence on the distribution of earnings, income and wealth among entrepreneurs in Germany. We document that both earnings and income are more concentrated among entrepreneurs than among workers and describe a large-scale overlapping-generations model that replicates the age-earnings profiles of these two household types. As an application, we compute the equilibrium effects of a reform of the German pay-as-you-go pension system in which entrepreneurs must also contribute and receive a pension. We show that in the presence of mobility between workers and entrepreneurs, the expected lifetime utility of all newborn households unanimously declines due to the general equilibrium effects of lower aggregate savings, and welfare losses amount to approximately 0.7% of total consumption. In addition, the integration of self-employed workers into the social security system in Germany does not help to improve its fiscal sustainability, and only an increase in the retirement age to 70 years will help to finance pensions at the present level beyond the year 2050.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 103488"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50201433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Access to infrastructure and women’s time allocation: Implications for growth and gender equality 获得基础设施和妇女时间分配:对增长和性别平等的影响
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103472
Pierre-Richard Agénor , Madina Agénor
{"title":"Access to infrastructure and women’s time allocation: Implications for growth and gender equality","authors":"Pierre-Richard Agénor ,&nbsp;Madina Agénor","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103472","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Improved access to infrastructure is commonly viewed as a critical step to increase women’s labor force participation and promote economic growth in developing countries. This positive relationship is first established in a basic gender-based, overlapping generations model with collective households and congestion costs. The model is then extended to account for endogenous gender bias in the market place and women’s bargaining power, as well as fertility choices and rearing time. Numerical experiments, based on a calibrated version of the extended model, show that increased access to infrastructure may induce women to devote more time to child rearing – in line with the model’s predictions and some of the empirical evidence – thereby mitigating the increase in time allocated to market work. As a result, it may weaken the benefits of increased female labor force participation in terms of reduced gender bias in the market place, improved women’s bargaining power in the family, and higher growth rates in the long run.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 103472"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49899475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Loss-of-learning and the post-Covid recovery in low-income countries 低收入国家的学习损失和covid - 19后恢复
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103492
Edward F. Buffie , Christopher Adam , Luis-Felipe Zanna , Kangni Kpodar
{"title":"Loss-of-learning and the post-Covid recovery in low-income countries","authors":"Edward F. Buffie ,&nbsp;Christopher Adam ,&nbsp;Luis-Felipe Zanna ,&nbsp;Kangni Kpodar","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103492","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103492","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We analyze the medium-term macroeconomic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and associated lock-down measures on low-income countries. We focus on the impact of the degradation of health and human capital caused by the pandemic and its aftermath, exploring the trade-offs between rebuilding human capital and the recovery of livelihoods and macroeconomic sustainability. A dynamic general equilibrium model is calibrated to reflect the structural characteristics of vulnerable low-income countries and to replicate key dimensions of the Covid-19 shock. We show that absent significant and sustained external financing, the persistence of loss-of-learning effects on labor productivity is likely to make the post-Covid recovery more attenuated and more expensive than many contemporary analysis suggests.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 103492"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9788846/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10839085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Government expenditure and economic growth: A heterogeneous-agents approach 政府支出与经济增长:异质性主体方法
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103486
Ryo Arawatari , Takeo Hori , Kazuo Mino
{"title":"Government expenditure and economic growth: A heterogeneous-agents approach","authors":"Ryo Arawatari ,&nbsp;Takeo Hori ,&nbsp;Kazuo Mino","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103486","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103486","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This study examines the relationship between productive government expenditures and economic growth. An R&amp;D-based model of </span>endogenous growth is used, in which agents have heterogeneous entrepreneurial abilities. We show that if the number of high-ability entrepreneurs is non-negligible, then the relationship between the government expenditure/GDP ratio and the economic growth rate is depicted by an inverted U-shaped curve with a flat top. The flat top of the curve indicates that changes in the size of the government expenditures have a limited impact on growth. We calibrate the model using U.S. data and empirically confirm our theoretical predictions. The theoretical and numerical results suggest that the debate on the relationship between the size of the government and economic growth may be off the mark unless the size of the government is extremely large or small.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 103486"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47738265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Monetary policy, fiscal policy and cross signal jamming 货币政策、财政政策与交叉信号干扰
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103500
Jeong-Yoo Kim , Hyung Sun Choi
{"title":"Monetary policy, fiscal policy and cross signal jamming","authors":"Jeong-Yoo Kim ,&nbsp;Hyung Sun Choi","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103500","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103500","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This paper considers the issue of rule versus discretion<span> when the central bank and the government share private information but have different preferences over </span></span>inflation<span><span><span> and output. We demonstrate that if the monetary policy is rule-based, Intuitive Criterion selects the unique separating equilibrium in which the central bank signals a low supply shock by a low </span>interest rate. Interestingly, discretion may be better than the rule for the central bank, contrary to the case of complete information. Also, we examine the effect of </span>information asymmetry on the monetary and fiscal policy mix. We show that cross signal jamming whereby the monetary authority and the fiscal authority successfully jams an unfavorable signal of each other does not occur in equilibrium.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 103500"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45899274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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