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The transmission of monetary policy shocks through the markets for reserves and money 货币政策冲击通过储备市场和货币市场的传导
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-06-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103590
Michael T. Belongia , Peter N. Ireland
{"title":"The transmission of monetary policy shocks through the markets for reserves and money","authors":"Michael T. Belongia ,&nbsp;Peter N. Ireland","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103590","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103590","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper identifies supply and demand curves for bank reserves and a Divisia aggregate of monetary services within a structural vector autoregressive time-series model. Estimated over four sample periods spanning 1967 through 2020, the model illustrates how monetary policy actions can be interpreted with reference to their initial impact on bank reserves and the federal funds rate and their subsequent effects on Divisia money, nominal consumption spending, the aggregate nominal price level, and the unemployment rate. Model estimates attribute strong inflationary effects to monetary policy in the late 1960s and 1970s and also show that changes in the supply of reserves associated with the Fed's large-scale asset purchases since 2008 worked, as intended, to offset deflationary pressures and reduce unemployment. The model describes a much richer monetary policy process than one focused on interest rates alone.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"80 ","pages":"Article 103590"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139901161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary policy and reserve requirements with a zero-interest digital euro 零利率数字欧元的货币政策和准备金要求
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-06-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103597
Paolo Fegatelli
{"title":"Monetary policy and reserve requirements with a zero-interest digital euro","authors":"Paolo Fegatelli","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103597","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103597","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study presents an analytical framework to investigate the use of reserve requirements as an indirect instrument to manage CBDC flows in an environment with significantly positive rates. This would complement two other possible instruments: hard limits, whose sole use may raise some concerns, and CBDC remuneration, which in a positive rate environment is not considered a viable option. As in the case of emerging market economies with a flexible exchange rate, in a CBDC framework reserve requirements could be used as a countercyclical tool for macroeconomic stabilization to influence bank lending/funding conditions consistently with the monetary policy stance. In an ample-reserves regime, the effectiveness of this tool would be favored by retaining the interest rate on required reserves and the interest rate on excess reserves (the real key policy rate) as two distinct policy instruments, with the former remaining stable below the latter.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"80 ","pages":"Article 103597"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139920283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The role of institutions in shaping the growth-aid relationship 机构在形成增长与援助关系中的作用
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-06-01 Epub Date: 2024-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103603
Carlos Bethencourt, Fernando Perera-Tallo
{"title":"The role of institutions in shaping the growth-aid relationship","authors":"Carlos Bethencourt,&nbsp;Fernando Perera-Tallo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103603","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103603","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Empirical evidence on the relationship between aid and economic growth is mixed and inconclusive. This paper proposes a theory to explain these contradictory findings. We build an endogenous growth model with a productive public good and homogeneous agents who allocate their time to both work and the appropriation of public resources. Aid increases public resources, raising the provision of the productive public good, but promotes rent-seeking. As recent empirical evidence suggests, a hump-shaped relationship between aid and growth emerges: too much aid is counterproductive for growth, particularly when institutions are weak. Aid transmits growth from the donor to the recipient country but harms income convergence and even prevents convergence among ex-ante identical countries when aid exceeds a certain threshold. Institutional improvements raise such a threshold. Thus, countries with lower income and lower institutional quality should receive less aid, unless an institutional reform is taken as a previous step to receive that aid.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"80 ","pages":"Article 103603"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070424000181/pdfft?md5=1d9d6b80ad27710bdcbf4f7082359117&pid=1-s2.0-S0164070424000181-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140618913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The political economy of inequality, mobility and redistribution 不平等、流动性和再分配的政治经济学
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103585
Ignacio P. Campomanes
{"title":"The political economy of inequality, mobility and redistribution","authors":"Ignacio P. Campomanes","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103585","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103585","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How does the interaction between inequality<span> and social mobility affect the choice of fiscal policy? I analyze this question in a model of democratic politics with imperfect tax enforcement, where the ability of individuals to evade taxes limits the amount of redistribution in the economy. Social mobility creates an insurance motive that increases voluntary compliance, favoring the tax enforcement process. In such an environment, redistributive pressures brought about by an increase in inequality are only implementable in highly mobile societies. On the contrary, when mobility is low, higher inequality reduces tax rates and does not translate into higher redistribution. Descriptive evidence based on a sample of 71 countries for the period 1980–2015 shows correlations among inequality, mobility and redistribution in line with the predictions of the model.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103585"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139069944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unveiling the impact of income taxes on inequality in a HACT model 在现金转移统一办法模型中揭示所得税对不平等的影响
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103581
Francisco Parro
{"title":"Unveiling the impact of income taxes on inequality in a HACT model","authors":"Francisco Parro","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103581","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103581","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>I introduce a tax shock into a “standard” heterogeneous agent model in continuous time (HACT) to quantify the effect of an income tax on </span>inequality. I find that an income tax, collecting 15% of output, reduces the </span>Gini coefficient<span> by up to 16.9% in an economy with a perfect credit market and up to 24.3% in financial autarky. The tax has a modest effect on production labor income inequality, reduces inequality in entrepreneurial income under financial autarky, but raises it when entrepreneurs operate in a perfect credit market. I also explore the effect of the tax on other well-known income inequality measures discussed in the literature.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103581"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138681468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Life-cycle wealth accumulation and consumption insurance 生命周期财富积累和消费保险
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103566
Claudio Campanale , Marcello Sartarelli
{"title":"Life-cycle wealth accumulation and consumption insurance","authors":"Claudio Campanale ,&nbsp;Marcello Sartarelli","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103566","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Households appear to smooth consumption in the face of income shocks much more than implied by life-cycle versions of the standard incomplete market model under reference calibrations. In the current paper we explore in detail the role played by the life-cycle profile of wealth accumulation. We show that a standard model parameterized to match the latter can rationalize between 81 and 100 percent of the consumption insurance against permanent earnings shocks empirically estimated by Blundell, Pistaferri and Preston (2008), depending on the tightness of the borrowing limit.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103566"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070423000666/pdfft?md5=09d20994b74b43c72409255090fc15e2&pid=1-s2.0-S0164070423000666-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134688903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unconventional monetary policy, financial frictions, and the equity tandem 非常规货币政策，金融摩擦，和股票串联
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103580
Roland von Campe
{"title":"Unconventional monetary policy, financial frictions, and the equity tandem","authors":"Roland von Campe","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A key feature of many DSGE frameworks designed to model Quantitative Easing (QE) is that net worth only plays a relevant role on bank’s balance sheets. In reality, however, net worth of borrowers <em>and</em> lenders plays a relevant role in financing investment projects. I show that this <em>equity tandem</em> has important implications. Net worth of non-financial firms acts as a <em>first line of defense</em>, since non-financial firm’s balance sheets are hit in the first place by real sector shocks. Modeling the equity tandem increases the resilience of the model and, therefore, implies smaller gains of unconventional monetary policy. A novel insight from the simultaneous modeling of borrowers and lenders net worth is that by decreasing the cost of external finance a QE policy is redistributing net worth from banks to non-financial firms. Additionally, considering the reverse operation, a credibly announced Quantitative Tightening (QT), helps to stabilize the spread between the return to capital and the deposit rate during the zero lower bound period. However, different anticipated QT paths are shown to have little consequences for output and inflation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103580"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070423000800/pdfft?md5=3022c7b5f3df4ac2bae4b51bf0967a03&pid=1-s2.0-S0164070423000800-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138453617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
COVID-19 inflation weights in the UK and Germany 英国和德国的COVID-19通胀权重
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103543
Francesco Grigoli, Evgenia Pugacheva
{"title":"COVID-19 inflation weights in the UK and Germany","authors":"Francesco Grigoli,&nbsp;Evgenia Pugacheva","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103543","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103543","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The COVID-19 pandemic altered consumption patterns significantly in a short period of time. However, official inflation statistics take time to reflect changes in the weights of the CPI consumption basket. Using credit card data for the UK and Germany, we document how consumption patterns changed and quantify the resulting inflation bias. We find that consumers experienced a higher level of inflation at the beginning of the pandemic than what a fixed-weight inflation (or the official-weight) index suggests and lower inflation thereafter. We also show that weights can differ among age groups and in-person vs. online spenders. These differences affect the purchasing power of the population heterogeneously. We conclude that CPI inflation indexes based on frequently updated weights can provide useful inputs to assess changes in the cost of living, including across segments of the population. If shifts in consumption patterns prove persistent, these indexes can help determine the need to introduce new weights and inform monetary policy and the design of support policies for the more vulnerable.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103543"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10276500/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10091886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Labor market institutions and technology-induced labor adjustment along the extensive and intensive margins 劳动力市场制度和技术诱导的沿粗放型和集约型边际的劳动力调整
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103571
Svetlana Rujin
{"title":"Labor market institutions and technology-induced labor adjustment along the extensive and intensive margins","authors":"Svetlana Rujin","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103571","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103571","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>What is the composition of total hours response to a technology shock in countries with different labor market institutions in terms of extensive and intensive margin movements? To answer this question, I identify technology shocks using structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) and decompose the responses of hours into adjustments along the extensive and intensive margins. I compare the adjustments along the two margins between groups of countries with strict and flexible labor market institutions. I find that both margins play a large role in accommodating technology shocks, with adjustments along the intensive margin being more important. Furthermore, countries with flexible labor market institutions display a larger drop in employment, whereas the results for the intensive margin are mixed. Finally, the cross-country differences in fluctuations along the two margins can be linked to the strictness of institutions that target quantity and price adjustments in the labor market.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103571"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138327672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles 季节温度变化与经济周期
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103568
Manuel Linsenmeier
{"title":"Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles","authors":"Manuel Linsenmeier","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103568","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103568","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the role of temperature as a driver of seasonal economic cycles. The study first presents a novel dataset of seasonal temperature and seasonal GDP. Stylised facts show that seasonal economic cycles are much more diverse than previous research suggested. The study then attributes seasonal economic cycles to temperature variability. For causal identification, the study proposes a novel econometric approach that accounts for expectations. The results suggest that seasonal temperature has a statistically significantly positive and economically large effect on seasonal GDP. Overall, a substantial share of seasonality in GDP timeseries appears to be due to weather. For a subsample of European countries, the effect of temperature can be attributed to sectors that are relatively more exposed to ambient environmental conditions. Projections of climate change suggest that seasonal economic cycles might substantially change in the future, with larger cycles expected for about half of the countries in the sample.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 103568"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016407042300068X/pdfft?md5=a4e0e5a5d3261e6a3cb971ebb68e22b5&pid=1-s2.0-S016407042300068X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92063261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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