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Model uncertainty, economic development, and welfare costs of business cycles 商业周期的模型不确定性、经济发展和福利成本
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103514
Masakatsu Okubo
{"title":"Model uncertainty, economic development, and welfare costs of business cycles","authors":"Masakatsu Okubo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103514","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103514","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Some researchers argue that the welfare gains from eliminating consumption fluctuations for the United States are not small once model uncertainty is taken into account. This paper presents new evidence on the welfare gains from eliminating model uncertainty using a data set from a broad range of countries. It quantifies exactly the effect of model uncertainty on the welfare gains using an analytical formula. The results indicate that most countries derive much larger gains from the reduction of model uncertainty compared with the United States. Countries at higher stages of economic development tend to have lower welfare gains because their gains from eliminating model uncertainty become smaller. This relationship does not depend on country size or </span>trade openness.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41533105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Inflation targeting and the composition of public expenditure: Evidence from developing countries 通货膨胀目标制与公共支出构成:来自发展中国家的证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103523
Ablam Estel Apeti , Jean-Louis Combes , Alexandru Minea
{"title":"Inflation targeting and the composition of public expenditure: Evidence from developing countries","authors":"Ablam Estel Apeti ,&nbsp;Jean-Louis Combes ,&nbsp;Alexandru Minea","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103523","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103523","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>An important literature shows that inflation targeting (IT) adoption improves fiscal discipline. Our impact assessment analysis performed in a large sample of 89 developing countries over three decades shows that this favorable impact covers a composition effect: IT adoption is found to reduce more current expenditure compared with public investment in IT countries relative to non-IT countries. This finding is robust to various alternative specification, related to the structure of the sample, the measurement of the IT regime, or the estimation method. Consequently, aside from its acknowledged benefits for monetary policy goals, IT appears as an efficient tool to strengthen fiscal policy in developing countries towards lower and more productive public expenditure.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45103582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Tax evasion policies and the demand for cash 逃税政策和现金需求
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103520
Edoardo Rainone
{"title":"Tax evasion policies and the demand for cash","authors":"Edoardo Rainone","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103520","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103520","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper analyzes the relationship between tax evasion and the demand for cash by studying the effects of two measures to fight evasion: accessing taxpayers’ bank data and imposing thresholds for cash payments. We study the effects of these policies in Italy, where visibility of bank data and cash thresholds were recently increased. We show that both significantly affected cash holdings, which grew by about 1.5 percent of the GDP. Using unique high frequency data on cash operations and exploiting regional heterogeneity in tax evasion propensity, we find that accessing bank data pushes regions with higher propensity to evade taxes to convert more deposits into cash. On the contrary, higher cash thresholds do not increase cash holdings more in these regions. We rationalize the findings with a simple model of tax evasion and payment choices, where cash and deposits have different degrees of privacy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49858935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Land and housing: The twin forces of non-balanced growth 土地和住房：非均衡增长的双重力量
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103504
Anuradha Saha
{"title":"Land and housing: The twin forces of non-balanced growth","authors":"Anuradha Saha","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103504","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103504","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In a three-sector closed economy where housing land is accumulated for the construction of houses, we depict significant effects of housing and land market on sectoral growth. We assume agriculture is the most intensive in the use of land, followed by manufacturing and then services. In the long run, land intensity differences in conjunction with labor growth contribute to sectoral growth gaps. In the short run, due to housing land accumulation, the economy transitions along a non-monotonic convergent path to the steady state. Using the US data, we quantify that land accounts for about one-tenth of long-run and short-run sectoral output growth gaps. We also incorporate sector-specific land-use restrictions to show that, despite these regulations, land and housing have qualitative effects on non-balanced growth.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44100582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
This time truly is different: The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis 这一次确实有所不同:新冠肺炎危机期间财政政策的周期性行为
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103522
Philipp Heimberger
{"title":"This time truly is different: The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis","authors":"Philipp Heimberger","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103522","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103522","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Fiscal policy was more countercyclical during the Covid-19 crisis than in previous (crisis) episodes. This paper presents empirical evidence in favour of a “this time truly is different” moment based on analysing the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy for 28 advanced economies over 1995–2021. Discretionary fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis (2020–2021) did more to counteract the downturn – especially in the Eurozone –, as we do not find comparable evidence for countercyclicality during the financial crisis or Euro crisis. Automatic fiscal stabilisers, the non-discretionary domain of fiscal policy, significantly contributed to countercyclical stabilisation during the pandemic.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10028344/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9198684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Wealth in utility, the Taylor principle and determinacy 效用财富、泰勒原理与确定性
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103525
Junzhu Zhao
{"title":"Wealth in utility, the Taylor principle and determinacy","authors":"Junzhu Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103525","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103525","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Wealth<span><span> in the utility function leads to the discounting to consumer’s Euler equation, enlarging determinacy regions and making it easier for the monetary authority to ensure equilibrium determinacy. We show that a passive policy rule which adjusts nominal interest rate by less than one-for-one in response to the inflation rate is able to rule out equilibrium indeterminacy, if properly specified, due to the presence of the demand channel of the Taylor principle and equilibrium determinacy. Furthermore, the extent to which </span>monetary policy rule can be passive in order to avoid indeterminacy depends critically on the degree of preference over wealth as well as the underlying structures and parameters of the model.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41631102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus 政策协调和财政刺激的有效性
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103489
Hyeongwoo Kim , Peng Shao , Shuwei Zhang
{"title":"Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus","authors":"Hyeongwoo Kim ,&nbsp;Peng Shao ,&nbsp;Shuwei Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103489","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103489","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper shows that government spending shocks in the U.S. has become ineffective due to lack of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies. Employing the post-war U.S. data, we report strong stimulus effects of fiscal policy during the pre-Volcker era, which rapidly dissipate as the sample period is shifted toward the post-Volcker era. We explain the causes of this phenomena via a sentiment channel. Employing the Survey of Professional Forecasters data, we show that forecasters tend to systematically overestimate real GDP growth in response to positive innovations in government spending when policies coordinate well with each other. On the other hand, they are likely to underestimate real GDP responses when the monetary authority maintains a hawkish stance that conflicts with the fiscal stimulus. The fiscal stimulus, under such circumstances, generates consumer pessimism, which reduces private spending and ultimately weakens the output effects of fiscal policy. We further report statistical test results that confirm our claims.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47562310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Loss-of-learning and the post-Covid recovery in low-income countries 低收入国家的学习损失和covid - 19后恢复
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103492
Edward F. Buffie , Christopher Adam , Luis-Felipe Zanna , Kangni Kpodar
{"title":"Loss-of-learning and the post-Covid recovery in low-income countries","authors":"Edward F. Buffie ,&nbsp;Christopher Adam ,&nbsp;Luis-Felipe Zanna ,&nbsp;Kangni Kpodar","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103492","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103492","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We analyze the medium-term macroeconomic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and associated lock-down measures on low-income countries. We focus on the impact of the degradation of health and human capital caused by the pandemic and its aftermath, exploring the trade-offs between rebuilding human capital and the recovery of livelihoods and macroeconomic sustainability. A dynamic general equilibrium model is calibrated to reflect the structural characteristics of vulnerable low-income countries and to replicate key dimensions of the Covid-19 shock. We show that absent significant and sustained external financing, the persistence of loss-of-learning effects on labor productivity is likely to make the post-Covid recovery more attenuated and more expensive than many contemporary analysis suggests.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9788846/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10839085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Does wealth inequality affect the transmission of monetary policy? 财富不平等是否影响货币政策的传导?
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103474
Alexander Matusche , Johannes Wacks
{"title":"Does wealth inequality affect the transmission of monetary policy?","authors":"Alexander Matusche ,&nbsp;Johannes Wacks","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>We provide evidence that higher wealth<span> inequality between households is associated with stronger real effects of monetary policy. First, we use state-dependent local projections to show that the US and the UK exhibited stronger real effects of monetary policy in times of higher wealth inequality. Second, we measure wealth inequality within US states and document that economic activity responds more strongly to </span></span>interest rate changes in states where wealth is distributed more unequally. Third, we show that ECB monetary policy has stronger real effects in Euro Area countries with higher wealth inequality.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44507719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany 特定年龄的创业和PAYG：德国的公共养老金
IF 1.4 3区 经济学
Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103488
Burkhard Heer , Mark Trede
{"title":"Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany","authors":"Burkhard Heer ,&nbsp;Mark Trede","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103488","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103488","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We present new empirical evidence on the distribution of earnings, income and wealth among entrepreneurs in Germany. We document that both earnings and income are more concentrated among entrepreneurs than among workers and describe a large-scale overlapping-generations model that replicates the age-earnings profiles of these two household types. As an application, we compute the equilibrium effects of a reform of the German pay-as-you-go pension system in which entrepreneurs must also contribute and receive a pension. We show that in the presence of mobility between workers and entrepreneurs, the expected lifetime utility of all newborn households unanimously declines due to the general equilibrium effects of lower aggregate savings, and welfare losses amount to approximately 0.7% of total consumption. In addition, the integration of self-employed workers into the social security system in Germany does not help to improve its fiscal sustainability, and only an increase in the retirement age to 70 years will help to finance pensions at the present level beyond the year 2050.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50201433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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