Computerizing households and the role of technology shocks in consumer durables

Abstract

We quantitatively assess the cyclical importance of technology shocks to consumer durables in light of the widespread adoption of consumer electronics such as smartphones and tablets. By estimating a business-cycle model of consumer durables with IT-specific technology, we find that technology shocks accounted for more than half of the variation in consumer IT goods and were a key driver of the 2001–2007 boom in consumer durable expenditures. Our estimation results suggest a larger role for technology shocks in household expenditures on consumer durables than previously recognized. In standard models, however, these shocks have a more limited impact on GDP dynamics, as consumer durables do not contribute to productive capital.