以拉丁美洲为重点的发展中国家财政整顿：不平等、不拘形式和腐败的作用

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-03-22 DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103675

João Tovar Jalles , Carola Pessino

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在包括拉丁美洲在内的许多新兴市场和发展中经济体（EMDE），不断扩大的收入差距、更高的腐败和更大的不正性，都面临着紧迫和日益严重的财政问题，这重新激起了人们对决定财政整顿发生的关键因素的实证分析的兴趣。本文使用离散选择模型，对1980年至2019年间148个新兴市场经济体的财政整顿事件的驱动因素进行了研究，并以拉丁美洲为重点。不平等似乎并没有推动拉丁美洲的整合，而更多的非正式性（腐败）增加（减少）了整合发生的可能性。反过来，在检查成功整合的驱动因素时，更大的收入不平等（非正式性）似乎对成功整合起到了促进（阻碍）作用。结果对若干敏感性和稳健性测试具有稳健性。

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Fiscal consolidations in developing countries with a Latin America focus: The role of inequality, informality and corruption

Widening income disparities, higher corruption and larger informality in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDE) including Latin America, all with pressing and mounting fiscal problems, have rekindled interest in the empirical analysis of the key factors determining the occurrence of fiscal consolidations. Using discrete choice models, this paper examines the drivers of fiscal consolidation episodes in a sample of 148 EMDE between 1980 and 2019 with a focus on Latin America. Inequality does not seem to drive consolidations in Latin America, while more informality (corruption) increases (decreases) the probability of their occurrence. In turn, when examining the drivers of successful consolidations, larger income inequality (informality) seems to act as a boost (hinderance) for successful consolidations. Results are robust to several sensitivity and robustness tests.

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来源期刊

Journal of Macroeconomics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

7.10%

发文量

审稿时长

76 days

期刊介绍： Since its inception in 1979, the Journal of Macroeconomics has published theoretical and empirical articles that span the entire range of macroeconomics and monetary economics. More specifically, the editors encourage the submission of high quality papers that are concerned with the theoretical or empirical aspects of the following broadly defined topics: economic growth, economic fluctuations, the effects of monetary and fiscal policy, the political aspects of macroeconomics, exchange rate determination and other elements of open economy macroeconomics, the macroeconomics of income inequality, and macroeconomic forecasting.