你能利用有关货币政策的信息改进专业预测者对GDP的预测吗？

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103717

Dean Croushore

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本文中，我检验了宏观经济预测者的预测误差，看看他们的预测是否有效地利用了有关货币政策的信息。其目的是利用实时数据，调查先前发现货币政策预测效率低下的研究。我使用实时数据集来研究样本内和样本外方法的GDP预测误差与货币政策变化之间的关系。样本外结果表明，在实时情况下很难利用低效率。

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Can you improve upon the GDP forecasts of professional forecasters using information about monetary policy?

In this paper, I examine the forecast errors of macroeconomic forecasters to see whether or not their forecasts are efficiently using information about monetary policy. The goal is to investigate, using real-time data, previous research that has found inefficiency in forecasts with respect to monetary policy. I use a real-time data set to investigate the relationship between GDP forecast errors and changes in monetary policy both in-sample and with out-of-sample methods. Out-of-sample results show that exploiting inefficiency is difficult in real time.

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来源期刊

Journal of Macroeconomics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

7.10%

发文量

审稿时长

76 days

期刊介绍： Since its inception in 1979, the Journal of Macroeconomics has published theoretical and empirical articles that span the entire range of macroeconomics and monetary economics. More specifically, the editors encourage the submission of high quality papers that are concerned with the theoretical or empirical aspects of the following broadly defined topics: economic growth, economic fluctuations, the effects of monetary and fiscal policy, the political aspects of macroeconomics, exchange rate determination and other elements of open economy macroeconomics, the macroeconomics of income inequality, and macroeconomic forecasting.